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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":514,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":36,"date":9,"description":516,"editor":2609,"extension":2610,"meta":2611,"navigation":2612,"order":517,"path":2613,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2614,"seoDescription":516,"seoTitle":2615,"slug":515,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":857,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2616,"sourceStatus":2617,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2618,"stem":2619,"summary":516,"tags":2620,"type":435,"updatedAt":2623,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":2624,"_collection":2625},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-06.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2600},"minimark",[821,826,834,839,847,853,863,866,869,877,880,888,891,897,900,907,914,919,927,930,935,938,944,951,958,961,964,967,974,979,982,985,989,999,1006,1009,1012,1020,1023,1031,1034,1039,1042,1045,1048,1056,1061,1066,1069,1072,1077,1080,1083,1088,1091,1096,1099,1102,1107,1110,1115,1140,1149,1152,1155,1162,1168,1173,1176,1179,1181,1184,1188,1191,1196,1199,1204,1207,1210,1215,1218,1223,1226,1231,1234,1242,1247,1252,1258,1261,1266,1274,1280,1283,1288,1295,1298,1303,1306,1311,1314,1323,1326,1331,1334,1339,1342,1345,1350,1353,1365,1368,1373,1376,1381,1387,1390,1393,1398,1403,1406,1409,1412,1415,1418,1421,1424,1431,1434,1437,1440,1443,1446,1451,1456,1461,1466,1471,1476,1479,1482,1485,1494,1504,1507,1510,1513,1517,1523,1526,1529,1534,1547,1556,1567,1570,1575,1578,1581,1584,1589,1592,1595,1598,1603,1607,1610,1615,1622,1636,1648,1651,1654,1657,1660,1663,1666,1669,1680,1683,1688,1691,1697,1700,1709,1712,1715,1718,1723,1726,1731,1734,1739,1742,1749,1754,1757,1762,1767,1770,1773,1776,1779,1782,1785,1788,1797,1800,1805,1808,1811,1814,1824,1829,1840,1845,1848,1853,1862,1867,1870,1875,1878,1883,1886,1889,1892,1897,1900,1905,1915,1918,1921,1926,1929,1932,1937,1940,1943,1948,1953,1956,1961,1966,1969,1972,1975,1980,1983,1988,1991,1996,2001,2004,2007,2010,2013,2018,2021,2026,2029,2034,2037,2043,2046,2049,2052,2055,2058,2063,2066,2069,2072,2077,2080,2085,2088,2093,2096,2101,2108,2114,2117,2123,2126,2129,2138,2149,2152,2162,2165,2168,2171,2174,2177,2182,2185,2188,2192,2202,2210,2217,2224,2233,2236,2239,2242,2245,2250,2257,2262,2265,2274,2280,2286,2294,2306,2311,2314,2317,2320,2326,2331,2348,2354,2357,2368,2371,2377,2382,2385,2388,2395,2400,2403,2408,2411,2416,2419,2424,2427,2430,2439,2444,2447,2452,2455,2460,2463,2466,2469,2474,2477,2480,2483,2486,2489,2492,2497,2500,2503,2508,2511,2516,2519,2522,2527,2530,2535,2538,2543,2548,2560,2566,2569,2574,2577,2582,2585,2588,2591,2594,2597],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-价值投资不等于长期持有","第一节 价值投资不等于长期持有",[827,828,829,833],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"段永平：我觉得应该是看懂生意比较难，看不懂的拿住比较难。大部分人拿不住是因为看不懂。真看懂了不应该拿不住。"," （2018-08）",[827,835,836],{},[830,837,838],{},"大多数东西10年后啥都不是，但确实有些东西10年后会变化很大，还有些东西几十年后和几十年前一样。自己去找吧，人生的酸甜苦辣咸都在里面了。(2022-10-30)",[827,840,841,842,846],{},"要知道，没什么比买错股票并",[843,844,120],"a",{"href":845},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","伤害更大的了。",[827,848,849,850,852],{},"网友：请问价值投资是不是要",[843,851,120],{"href":845},"？赵丹阳这么快把物美商业卖掉，是不是违背了价值投资？",[827,854,855,858,859,862],{},[830,856,857],{},"段永平"," ：",[830,860,861],{},"我总觉得价值投资就应该长期持有的说法是对价值投资的误解。误解最大的无过于“长期持有就是价值投资”了"," 。但是，买到了便宜的好股票最好不要轻易出手。（2010-03-25）",[827,864,865],{},"网友：我炒股票13年了，去年才有缘认识价值投资，并将决定这辈子从投机改行，决定只做投资了。",[827,867,868],{},"可改行的第一件事就是全部买了中国铁建，也就是现在垄断中国高铁建设的那家，结果1年来大盘涨了70%我却亏了20%，我是不会放弃的，只是心有不服，我认为我的这次买入并持有行动对我的人生将是一次伟大行动，难道真的是伟大行动开始遇到的往往是打呵欠，这呵欠也太大了，大盘涨70%我亏20%，平哥，对我的以上经历能给我几句您看法的话吗？",[827,870,871,858,873,876],{},[830,872,857],{},[830,874,875],{},"价值投资者会用长期投资的办法，但长期抱着一个股票并不一定就是价值投资。价值投资最重要的是买对公司然后才可以长期持有。很多人把长期持有当成价值投资的唯一特性了，大错特错啊，千万别忘了前提。当然，你可能买的就是一个好公司，那就应该坚持下去（你自己要明白你为什么买）。所谓长期投资的意思就是短期有可能会亏钱的意思。"," （2010-04-03）",[827,878,879],{},"巴菲特：如果你不愿意拥有一只股票十年，那就不要考虑拥有它十分钟。",[827,881,882,858,884,887],{},[830,883,857],{},[830,885,886],{},"价值投资并不是盲目的买进并长期持有。如果是好公司才值得在好价格时买进并长期持有。当然，好价格并不一定是抄底的价格（如果是当然好），好价格指的是10年后回头看：哇塞，那真是好价格。"," （2010-04-29）",[827,889,890],{},"网友：个人觉得说不定大哥的某些看法和观点也会慢慢有变化，就像十年前你也许还不怎么信巴菲特，现在就比较相信，不知将来会怎样？",[827,892,893,896],{},[830,894,895],{},"段永平："," 我从看到“巴菲特”第一分钟就开始相信巴菲特了，从来没动摇过。心中没有“巴菲特”的人是很难相信“巴菲特”的，而且谁说都没用。（2010-07-04）",[827,898,899],{},"网友：价值投资不是长期投资",[827,901,902,858,904],{},[830,903,857],{},[830,905,906],{},"价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）。价值投资的长期持有是在买对股票的前提下才成立。（2010-12-02）",[827,908,909,858,911],{},[830,910,857],{},[830,912,913],{},"长线持有一定是在买对好股票的前提下。有很多人往往只是在“被套”的时候才想起“长线”来。",[827,915,916],{},[830,917,918],{},"这里“被套”的意思是指有些人本来指打算拿10天的股票，结果因为“亏钱”了而决定改为拿10年，这种决定往往会让人亏更多。不打算拿10年的股票一定别去打算拿10天，不然就是“炒”了。（2011-12-13）",[827,920,921,858,923,926],{},[830,922,857],{},[830,924,925],{},"只想说一点：“长期投资”并不自动等于价值投资，但价值投资一般都是长期投资"," 。（2012-03-14）",[827,928,929],{},"也许“长期投资”这个说法有点问题，叫“投资长期”似乎不容易误解。",[827,931,932],{},[830,933,934],{},"周期性的好企业能不能长期持有",[827,936,937],{},"网友T：首先我声明一点，我不认识但斌，也从来没见过他，但看到大家说但斌不是价值投资者还是感觉有点不爽。",[827,939,940,941,943],{},"但斌在08年之前主要的投资思想是“",[843,942,120],{"href":845},"好企业”，经过08年之后，投资思想变成“长期持有非周期性好企业”，我08年之后也隐约的感觉到为什么有些好企业经过深跌确不涨，有些企业下跌后很快就涨起来了，但斌系统的总结了，就是周期性的好企业也无法长期持有，这个在当时打消了我的很多疑虑，印证了我的一些想法。",[827,945,946,947,950],{},"因此在这里说说我对他的看法。但斌的最大贡献就是把非周期行业的投资理论化了，至少对我是这样，让我把隐约的感觉变成有理论依据了，",[830,948,949],{},"巴菲特","的书里面没有具体写周期性的企业，费雪也没有太具体的非周期性的东西。（2012-08-11）",[827,952,953,954,957],{},"网友H6688：你说“巴菲特的书里面没有具体写周期性的企业”，----看来对巴菲特的了解还是不够。巴菲特致股东信里曾详细回顾和反思了对纺织行业，航空公司投资失败的心路历程。并且，巴菲特·还由此总结出来“雪茄烟蒂型”投资的缺陷，从而总结并推崇竞争优势理论和",[843,955,74],{"href":956},"\u002Fhuchenghe","理论。",[827,959,960],{},"网友G：段大哥，是不是身为基金经理的他想告诉客户点啥，但也顾忌被请喝咖啡，所以拿图线说事，俺小聪明一下。但斌能把一个不错的公司拿快十年，这定力，俺就服！",[827,962,963],{},"H6688说到的航空公司与纺织公司，我想的确与周期性没啥关系。只是老巴举的最典型的两个例子。",[827,965,966],{},"航空公司：是说整个行业发展迅速，需求巨大，但行业内的企业受伤累累。航空公司无法给客户做出独特体验度，客户不关心是哪家公司为自己提供服务。所以航线重叠的情况下，只有血拼价格来争取客户，所以行业兴旺，行业内企业却很是受伤。就像段总提到的做硅片的公司。",[827,968,969,970,973],{},"纺织公司：",[830,971,972],{},"芒格","说了，是因为产品无特性。好像水泥，无论设备如何投入，它还是水泥，能说自己水泥好，比别家水泥贵一倍吗？（2012-08-12）",[827,975,976,978],{},[830,977,857],{}," ：所谓周期性的说法是不太靠谱的，因为没人知道每次周期有多长，有点像牛熊市的说法，都是马后炮。",[827,980,981],{},"网友：老铺黄金越跌我越买！越拿的住！这算是长期持有吗？",[827,983,984],{},"大道：怎么感觉有点在给自己壮胆的味道呢？（2026-08-31）",[822,986,988],{"id":987},"第二节-不打算拿十年就别拿十天","第二节 不打算拿十年，就别拿十天",[827,990,991,992,995,996,998],{},"“",[830,993,994],{},"如果你不愿意拥有一只股票十年，那就不要考虑拥有它十分钟","。”(",[830,997,949],{},")",[827,1000,1001,1002,1005],{},"这是所谓",[843,1003,58],{"href":1004},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者决定买股票时要过的第一关。",[827,1007,1008],{},"投资的一般规律是：出手越多，赚得越少，或赔得越多。(2010-04-23)",[827,1010,1011],{},"网友：投资中最简单的事是什么？",[827,1013,1014,858,1016,1019],{},[830,1015,857],{},[830,1017,1018],{},"对投资，我想来想去，总觉得只有一样东西最简单，就是当你买一个股票时，你一定是认为你在买这家公司，你可能拿在手里10年，20年，有这种想法后就容易判断很多。"," （2010-04-27）",[827,1021,1022],{},"网友L：赶紧别走这条没钱途的路了，跟着@大道无形我有型走吧。",[827,1024,1025,858,1027,1030],{},[830,1026,857],{},[830,1028,1029],{},"记住老巴的那句话：不打算拿10年的股票为什么你愿意拿10天呢？我就是想通了这句话后把我手里管的UNG全部亏本卖了，如果当时不卖的话，到现在为止每股要多亏6-7块钱，总数大概超过一亿了。当然还有一句话是我自己的，那就是：发现错误要尽快改，不管多大的代价都可能是最小的代价。"," （2011-10-25）",[827,1032,1033],{},"网友：大道这句“发现错误要尽快改，不管多大的代价都可能是最小的代价。”，（看到的都赚到了。）",[827,1035,1036,1038],{},[830,1037,857],{}," ：此话来源于：做对的事情和把事情做对。做对的事情的意思就是错的事情不做，发现是错的事情就马上改。老巴也说过类似的（大意），如果你发现自己已经在坑里了，至少不要再往下挖了。",[827,1040,1041],{},"这里特别强调一下，在把事情做对的过程当中是会犯很多错误的，因为把事情做对是个学习的过程。很多人会在这个地方搞混。",[827,1043,1044],{},"举几个例子：不诚信是错的事情，所以不要做；借margin做股票是错的事情，所以不做。也许有人会问，难道明知错的东西还会有人去做吗？这个世界很有意思，往往不对的事情是有很多短期诱惑的，连食品都这样，好吃的东西往往对身体不好。（2011-10-25）",[827,1046,1047],{},"网友：这个是永久性的吗？将来会不会变？",[827,1049,1050,858,1052,1055],{},[830,1051,857],{},[830,1053,1054],{},"我有个朋友说华尔街的长线就是明天下午"," ，从这个角度看，这个规定近似永久了。（2011-12-06）",[827,1057,1058,1060],{},[830,1059,857],{}," ：个人理解：还有一种说法就是不打算拿10年的股票你为什么要拿10天呢？",[827,1062,1063],{},[830,1064,1065],{},"这句话不是说自己买的股票一定要拿10年，而是说如果自己觉得10年以后自己认为肯定不好的公司就不应该现在去买。",[827,1067,1068],{},"经常看到有些人说，虽然知道过几年这公司会不行，但觉得短期股价还是有可能上行...，那是啥意思？（2012-11-17）",[827,1070,1071],{},"网友B：十年也罢，永远也罢，是一种考虑问题的思路，如果还要考虑短期，就会把思路搞乱。",[827,1073,1074,1076],{},[830,1075,895],{}," 就是“不打算拿10年的股票就不应该拿10天的意思”。其实大多数人买股票都是希望拿10天就赚大钱的那种，所以只有很少人能在股市上赚大钱。",[827,1078,1079],{},"打算拿10年和真的拿了10年是不完全一样的概念，逻辑不同。举个例子：如果我认为某个公司按自己的理解未来日子会很难过，那我就不会碰，比如航空公司（这个理解也是在碰过航空公司后，在老巴的提醒下悟出来的）。（2013-02-24）",[827,1081,1082],{},"网友：记得巴菲特说过，不想持有十年的公司不要持有十分钟，我从骨子里赞同这个逻辑。呵呵我一直在持续买茅台，越跌越高兴，越跌买的越多。",[827,1084,1085,1087],{},[830,1086,857],{}," ：呵呵，我刚刚听说我也在调集资金买茅台呢。（2013-04-02）",[827,1089,1090],{},"网友：“你如果不想拥有一家公司十年，你甚至不要拥有一分钟。”老巴有些话越想越不简单。",[827,1092,1093,1095],{},[830,1094,895],{}," 应该是越想越简单但确实不容易！（2013-09-03）",[827,1097,1098],{},"网友：很奇怪，我自己精挑细选的股票远没有我给我儿子用他的压岁钱买的股票表现好。我给他买的初衷就是10几年后他读大学时有一笔资金可以用，给他买了一只当时我认为价格不算便宜、但是业务我很喜欢的股票，因为是老牌绩优上市公司，业务简单，产品又了解（医用日用品），就没有可以的去深入研究。",[827,1100,1101],{},"结果出人意料，一年半翻了一倍多，远远超过了我的主力业绩，不知道这算是运气还是什么呢？",[827,1103,1104,1106],{},[830,1105,895],{}," 你给儿子的股票是打算拿10年的，自己买的是打算赚快钱的。大概意思就是知道怎么把事情做对但不知道什么是对的，这种情况下确实是运气。（2013-09-10）",[827,1108,1109],{},"网友S：确实是这样，个人感觉看5年和看10年是完全不同的，10年和20年则没多大区别。我现在是“不想持有10年的股票一天也不要持有；不想买进至少10%仓位的股票一股也不要买进”",[827,1111,1112,1114],{},[830,1113,857],{}," ：这个理解不错。（2013-10-09）",[827,1116,1117,1118,1121,1122,1125,1126,1128,1129,1131,1132,1135,1136,1139],{},"网友：您好老师，我是您的新粉。以前在东莞长安呆过一段时间，每次从",[830,1119,1120],{},"OPPO","，",[830,1123,1124],{},"vivo"," 厂门口经过的时候就忍不住感叹工厂规模真是大啊，感觉段总是个厉害又神秘的人。我是17年读到一本《左手",[830,1127,949],{},"右手李嘉诚》的书，学习了",[830,1130,949],{},"的投资理论后感觉整个A股市场符合买入条件的就一个贵州",[830,1133,1134],{},"茅台","，我是拿它跟",[830,1137,1138],{},"可口可乐","做对标的。",[827,1141,1142,1143,1145,1146,1148],{},"那时",[830,1144,1134],{},"股价500多，手里没钱，很遗憾就错过了。后来2020年疫情的时候没事干，在家做短线，亏多赢少。现在都是量化的天下，短线就更难了。我想问一下老师，手里资金不多的散户像您一样",[843,1147,120],{"href":845},"还是做短线好一点？",[827,1150,1151],{},"大道：你要短线能赚钱那当然做短线啊！最短的短线在澳门。（2026-01-22）",[827,1153,1154],{},"网友：段总，偶然看到的一张照片，好多大佬啊。我想请教一下，当一个行业上升期或者风口出现，你知道它是苦生意或者未来会陷入内卷，你会投资赚上一笔吗？或者建议我这样的小散户投资吗？",[827,1156,1157,1158,1161],{},"大道：不打算拿十年的“投资”最好就不要碰，不要想着市场或者风口啥的。打算拿十年的结果未必就一定要拿十年的，但不打算拿十年的心态会让你很容易做一个",[843,1159,125],{"href":1160},"\u002Ftouji","的决定。（2026-01-23）",[827,1163,1164],{},[1165,1166,1167],"em",{},"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.",[827,1169,1170],{},[830,1171,1172],{},"引用：巴菲特31年股东信精华",[827,1174,1175],{},"母公司是不会单纯因为价格因素就将自己旗下最优秀的子公司给卖掉，公司总裁一定会问，为什么要把我皇冠上的珠宝给变卖掉？不过当场景转换到其个人的投资组合时，他却又会毫不犹豫地，甚至是情急地从这家公司换到另一家公司，靠的不过是股票经纪人肤浅的几句话语，其中最烂的一句当属“你不会因为获利而破产”。",[827,1177,1178],{},"你能想象得出一家公司的总裁会用类似的话语建议董事会将最有潜力的子公司给卖掉吗？就我个人的观点，适用于企业经营的原则也同样适用于股票投资，投资人在持有一家公司的股票所展现的韧性，应当与一家公司的老板持有公司全部的股权一样。（1993）",[827,1180,913],{},[827,1182,1183],{},"这里“被套”的意思是指有些人本来只打算拿10天的股票，结果因为“亏钱”了而决定改为拿10年，这种决定往往会让人亏更多。不打算拿10年的股票一定别去打算拿10天，不然就是“炒”了。(2011-12-13)",[822,1185,1187],{"id":1186},"第三节-为什么看十年比看三年容易","第三节 为什么看十年比看三年容易",[827,1189,1190],{},"网友：想请教一下，你的投资中有“时间感”吗？",[827,1192,1193,1195],{},[830,1194,895],{}," 说没有“时间感”是假的。但如果时间总是站在自己这边时，感觉还是挺好的。（2010-05-17）",[827,1197,1198],{},"网友：请教段总：关注公司未来3年的增长确实不容易，它确实受很多因素的影响，要想知道3年后的情况，很多时候也有些看天吃饭的意思。",[827,1200,1201,1203],{},[830,1202,857],{}," ：如果你不能看到3年，那也是没办法的事。但是，有些公司你实际上是可以从很多方面看到3年以上的东西的。",[827,1205,1206],{},"比如，你大概会相信沃尔玛、麦当劳、耐克、宝洁甚至苹果3年以后活得不错吧？再比如，你可能会发现你心里会觉得很多公司能不能活到3年你是不确定的，所以，至少投资时要避开你无法确定的那些吧？（2011-01-09）",[827,1208,1209],{},"网友：如果遇到一个不错的生意，但管理层不是那么理想该怎么抉择呢？",[827,1211,1212,1214],{},[830,1213,895],{}," 还是想10年的事情。（2013-03-01）",[827,1216,1217],{},"网友：现在要捡大便宜的机会是越来越少了。不确定性的问题似乎提及的比较少。",[827,1219,1220,1222],{},[830,1221,857],{}," ：如果你能用10年的眼光看，人们眼里的不确定性其实远没有想象的那么高。如果你不是用10年的眼光看，那你看的是什么？你以前捡过很多大便宜？如果没有的话，越来越少是啥意思？（2013-06-04）",[827,1224,1225],{},"网友：段大哥说投A股非常难，是指A股大大部分时间里都非常贵吗？",[827,1227,1228,1230],{},[830,1229,857],{}," ：便宜或贵的说法取决于对公司10年后的状况的认识，很难在a股上找到能看明白10年或以上的公司。我喜欢茅台也是基于这点。（2013-06-21）",[827,1232,1233],{},"网友K：自己觉得5年已经不短了，能看懂未来5年应该有很不错的成绩。",[827,1235,1236,858,1238,1241],{},[830,1237,857],{},[830,1239,1240],{},"其实看几年并不是个时间长短的问题，而是个定性的问题"," 。（2013-10-09）",[827,1243,1244],{},[830,1245,1246],{},"“时间是优秀企业的朋友，平庸企业的敌人”。你可能认为这个原则平淡无奇，但我是通过深刻的教训才学习到的。",[827,1248,1249],{},[830,1250,1251],{},"——引用：巴菲特（2015-03-26）",[827,1253,1254,1257],{},[830,1255,1256],{},"段永平：长期而言（10年20年或以上）坚持只投好的商业模式，好的企业文化的公司大概率上是会有比较好的回报的，而且这种投资方法让人很愉快，不需要整天瞎操心。简言之，投资人每次做投资决定时如果想的是10年20年的事情，最后的结果很难不好，不然就难说了。要找到自己能想清楚10年20年的公司是非常不容易的，一生有那么10个8个机会就非常非常好了。","（2015-04-11）",[827,1259,1260],{},"网友：怎么考虑质地一般但很便宜的公司？",[827,1262,1263,1265],{},[830,1264,895],{}," 用拥有10年或20年的角度看，不要想市场。（2018-01-10）",[827,1267,1268,1270,1271],{},[830,1269,895],{}," 我觉得模糊的正确指的就是定性的重要性，或者甚至也可以说是要先做对的事情。（",[830,1272,1273],{},"2018－05）",[827,1275,1276,1279],{},[830,1277,1278],{},"段永平：这是关注短期关注市场的人才会问的问题。我不考虑这个问题。我关注长期，看不懂的不碰。任何想市场，想时机的做法，可能都是错误的，我不看市场，我看生意。你说某只股票贵，how do you know？站在现在看10年前，估计什么都是贵的。你站在10年后看现在，能看懂而且便宜的公司，买就行了。"," （2018-9-30）",[827,1281,1282],{},"网友：为什么看10年比三年容易？",[827,1284,1285,1287],{},[830,1286,857],{}," ：如果你觉得看10年比看三年难，那一定会觉得看三年会比看三天难，所以看三天更容易？所以很多人都是三天两天一天那么看的，因为容易？结果显然是不好的吧？简单举个例子吧，我们买茅台时（大概是12-13年），那时是不知道两三年内茅台会怎么样的，但我可以大概率肯定，茅台10年后会不错。现在其实还不到十年呢，效果就已经不错了。",[827,1289,1290,1291,1294],{},"其实用老巴那句话来解释可能就容易理解些了：",[830,1292,1293],{},"知道什么会发生比知道什么时候会发生要容易的多。很多事情，不管是好事还是坏事，给他10年，大概率就会发生了，三年则未必，但三年会发生的概率显然会比三天高，所以能看三年也好啊，肯定好过看三天的。"," （2018-10-23）",[827,1296,1297],{},"网友：“从未来10年或二十年回到现在选择企业”，请问段总一般从哪些角度来做长期判断？",[827,1299,1300,1302],{},[830,1301,857],{}," ：一般从三个方面：商业模式，企业文化，以及买入价钱。这里买入价钱其实没那么重要。（2019-03-14）",[827,1304,1305],{},"网友：关键能看懂十年的人不多，拿住十年的更是凤毛麟角！",[827,1307,1308,1310],{},[830,1309,857],{}," ：看不懂10年的人其实也看不懂一年的。看懂10年远容易过看懂短期的。（2019-07-22）",[827,1312,1313],{},"网友：大道，请问如何预计公司未来10-20年的复合回报？我们一般了解一家公司，是定性的了解，但你不一样，你能建立一种定量的底线（例如茅台8%以上），这种定量的估算我感觉很难，哪怕只是底线。不知能否请你指点一二，点我突破？",[827,1315,1316,1318,1319,1322],{},[830,1317,857],{}," ：我从来没做过定量的分析，你记错人了？",[830,1320,1321],{},"我的所谓量的说法都是建立在定性分析上了。从十年或以上的角度看，定量分析很荒唐"," 。（2019-08-21）",[827,1324,1325],{},"网友：为什么“从十年或以上的角度看，定量分析很荒唐。”为什么？",[827,1327,1328,1330],{},[830,1329,857],{}," ：因为定性分析要更准确。比如人们可能很容易知道茅台10年后大概能赚多少钱，但无法准确知道10年后的某一年能赚多少，也没必要知道。对苹果这类公司则更是如此。（2019-08-23）",[827,1332,1333],{},"网友：要看未来的10年或20年吗？能看准吗？",[827,1335,1336,1338],{},[830,1337,857],{}," ：呵呵，我也看不准。但有些公司10年或20年以后肯定不大行是可以看出来的。",[827,1340,1341],{},"其实有很多公司是几乎可以看到10年以后的日子会不好过的，这就叫生意模式。投资中如果能总是避开10年后肯定不好的公司，基本上很难表现太差。",[827,1343,1344],{},"网友：我们用买股票就是买公司的的理念看3～5年，还没到您的段位可以看10年，但实践中在国内做私募基金会遇到净值回撤的问题，尤其今年的A股市场，渠道或客户会有压力反馈过来，很难做到越跌越买，因为仓位重了一跌可能会涉及平仓线，国内合同一般下跌20%平仓。好像李录早期也遇到这个问题芒格建议他改成有限合伙。请教段总有没什么好的建议。）",[827,1346,1347,1349],{},[830,1348,857],{}," ：芒格的建议很好。另外，看三年五年是比看十年难的，基本上可以说，看得越短越难。",[827,1351,1352],{},"网友：买神华看十年，会比放在银行里合算吗？",[827,1354,1355,1357,1358,1360,1361,1364],{},[830,1356,895],{}," 神华我的了解不如",[830,1359,1134],{},"，但大概率应该比存银行好。买",[830,1362,1363],{},"腾讯","肯定也比存银行好。想想百分之八十几的人都在股市上亏钱，好过存银行其实是很奢侈的。（2025-07-19）",[827,1366,1367],{},"网友：如果有目标企业，但价格太高，是等几个月甚至数年，还是先入手，接受它现在的价格？",[827,1369,1370,1372],{},[830,1371,895],{}," 从十年后看回来如果价格还是高的话，那就等着。（2025-09-27）",[827,1374,1375],{},"网友：看十年不适合大部分人，看十年是给认真想做好投资的人的建议。",[827,1377,1378,1380],{},[830,1379,895],{}," 看10年确实不适合于那些想赌赚快钱最后大概率会赌输的人们。其实看不懂十年的人们也是很容易战胜大多数的炒股人的，只要不碰就好。（2025-09-28）",[827,1382,1383,1384,1386],{},"网友：真的理解了这句话之后（投资只需要关注生意本身）， 投资变得异常简单，虽然搞懂公司不容易，但是只要你静下心来从生意的角度去思考公司未来五年十年的经营情况，肯定能找到自己看得懂的公司。然后再合适的价格或者低估的价格买入后",[843,1385,120],{"href":845},"。大道：是的，犯错概率会大幅度降低，命中率会大幅度提高，虽然还是可能会犯错。",[827,1388,1389],{},"（2025-11-28）",[827,1391,1392],{},"网友：问题是有几个人能看懂十年？人工智能时代千变万化，作为普通投资者如果预期很高，就尽量不要进入这个市场。希望越大，失望越大。",[827,1394,1395,1397],{},[830,1396,895],{}," 看不懂十年的人们更看不懂一年或者一个月的，这样就只好赌了。散户大多不管牛熊市都亏钱的原因就在于此。短期赌赢了的人们大多会继续赌，最后大概率会输在认知上。",[827,1399,1400],{},[830,1401,1402],{},"段永平：老有人说巴菲特我们学不来，因为他有很多钱。看看老巴怎么说吧。",[827,1404,1405],{},"巴菲特讲述的3个神奇的滚雪球故事（来源：第一财经日报）",[827,1407,1408],{},"第一个故事：从3万美元到2万亿美元",[827,1410,1411],{},"我根据并非完全可靠的消息来源得知，伊萨贝拉女王当初资助哥伦布环球探险航行的投资资本大约是3万美元。大家普遍认为这笔投资至少来说是一项相当成功的风险投资了。但我认为，如果不考虑发现地球的另一半所带来的心理上的满足的话，我必须指出，尽管当时普遍盛行擅自占地者通过对不动产的占有达到一定期限而获得所有权的权利，这项交易的回报也肯定没有投资IBM更加赚钱。",[827,1413,1414],{},"非常粗略地估算一下，如果当时把这3万美元投入年复合收益率为4%的项目，那些到1962年将会累计增值到2万亿美元（这2万亿是真金白银而不是政府统计的数据）。那些为卖掉曼哈顿岛的印第安土著进行辩护的历史学家们或许也可以从类似的计算中找到辩护的理由。这样的几何级财富增长过程表明，要想实现神话般的财富增值，要么让自己活得很长，要么让自己的钱以很高的收益率复合增长。",[827,1416,1417],{},"关于如何让自己活得很长，我本人并没什么特别有益的经验可以提供给各位。",[827,1419,1420],{},"第二个故事：从2万美元到1000万亿美元",[827,1422,1423],{},"由于复利这件事情看起来十分无聊，这一次我将尝试转向艺术品世界，用小小的一堂课来解释复利的神奇。法国国王弗朗西斯一世在1540年支付了4000埃居，购买了达·芬奇画作《蒙娜丽莎》。只有万分之一的可能性，你们中少数人才不会注意到埃居的价格波动，当时的4000埃居约合20000美元左右。",[827,1425,1426,1427,1430],{},"如果法兰西一世能脚踏实地做些实实在在的投资，他（和他的受托人）能够找到一个每年税后复利收益率6%的投资项目，那么到现在的1963年这笔投资将会累计超值到1000万亿美元。这笔超级庞大的财产超过1000万亿美元，或者说超过现在法国全国",[843,1428,64],{"href":1429},"\u002Ffuzhai","的3000倍以上，全部来自于每年6%的复利增长。（译者注，用本金2万美元乘以1.06%的423次方）。",[827,1432,1433],{},"我想这个故事可以终结我们家里关于购买一幅油画严格来说是不是一笔投资的争论了。",[827,1435,1436],{},"第三个故事：从24美元到420亿美元",[827,1438,1439],{},"这是一个关于曼哈顿岛的印第安人把这座小岛卖给臭名昭著的挥霍浪费的荷属美洲新尼德兰省总督彼得·米纽伊特（Peter Minuit）的传奇故事，印第安人在交易中体现出来的精明将会永远铭刻在历史上。我了解到，印第安人从这笔交易中净落到手的钱约合24美元。付出金钱的Peter Minuit得到了曼哈顿岛上22.3平方英里的所有土地，约合621688320平方英尺。",[827,1441,1442],{},"按照可比土地销售的价格基础进行估算，我们不难做出一个相当准确的估计，现在每平方英尺土地价格估计为20美元，因此可以合理推算整个曼哈顿岛的土地现在总价值为12433766400美元，约125亿美元。对于那些投资新手来说，这个数据听起来会让人感觉米纽伊特总督做的这笔交易赚大了。但是，印第安人只需要能够取得每年6.5%的投资收益率，就可以轻松笑到最后。",[827,1444,1445],{},"按照6.5%的年复利收益率，他们卖岛拿到的24美元经过338年到现在会累计增值到42109362790（约420亿）美元，而且只要他们努力争取每年多赚上半个百分点让年收益率达到7%，338年后的现在就能增值到2050亿美元。",[827,1447,1448],{},[830,1449,1450],{},"你认为10年后还在的公司都有谁？定义是10年后营业额和利润都不低于今天的才可以认为还在哈。",[827,1452,1453],{},[830,1454,1455],{},"我觉得苹果、茅台、腾讯应该都还在；谷歌、微软、伯克希尔应该也还在。我希望OPPO和vivo还在，但不是100%确定。",[827,1457,1458],{},[830,1459,1460],{},"20年呢？我觉得苹果、茅台应该还在，谷歌、微软、伯克希尔也应该还在，腾讯90%还在，OPPO和vivo应该75%还在。",[827,1462,1463],{},[830,1464,1465],{},"30年呢？……",[827,1467,1468],{},[830,1469,1470],{},"确属脑力游戏，没事想想这个也许能对投资有点帮助。(2024-01-28)",[827,1472,1473],{},[830,1474,1475],{},"在年利润10亿美元以上或年利润50亿人民币以上的公司里，有谁未来10年的总利润会比过去10年高？在这些企业中，有谁未来10-20年的获利总和会比未来10年的总和高？",[827,1477,1478],{},"贵或者便宜都是从未来10年或更远的角度看的。比如，如果你觉得一家公司未来肯定会完蛋，那么现在什么价格都是贵的。几年前有个某公司的第二大股东聊到该不该卖某公司，什么价钱卖的问题。我说，这个看着早晚为0的公司，什么价卖都是好价钱吧？尽量避开那些看起来10年后日子会不好过的公司很重要，偶尔错失一些机会不会伤害到你的。(2020-12-06)",[827,1480,1481],{},"当你迷惘的时候，试试往远处看？看10年往往比看1到2年要容易很多，看一两年会比看一两天容易很多。比如投资上，很多公司其实是很容易知道它们10年后很可能会不行的，那为什么现在要买呢？避开这些公司你会发现其实你的选择会特别少，但心里会踏实很多。(2022-01-26)",[827,1483,1484],{},"网友：大道是在寻找投资标的吗？",[827,1486,1487,1489,1490,1493],{},[830,1488,895],{}," 这是我的思维方式，我大概就是这么看公司的。当你这么看公司时，很自然就重视",[843,1491,70],{"href":1492},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","了。",[827,1495,1496,1497,1500,1501,1503],{},"我了解的公司很少，在我比较了解的公司里(年利润10亿美元以上的)，",[830,1498,1499],{},"我觉得未来10年总利润比过去10年总利润高的公司可能有苹果、茅台、腾讯、伯克希尔、微软、谷歌，拼多多应该算一个，但那是因为拼多多过去10年还没怎么赚到钱","。麦当劳、",[830,1502,1138],{},"这类公司打败通胀的概率应该很大，所以也应该算。",[827,1505,1506],{},"有点汗颜，我发现我了解的公司实在是太少了。(2024-01-29)",[827,1508,1509],{},"网友：段总，你是怎么样才对某家公司有懂了的感觉，比如泡泡玛特，在我的认知里我也觉得这家公司从多个维度（商业模式和企业文化等）看确实很不错，但是没有那种确定性的感觉（没有那种如果可口可乐商家活动便宜几毛钱，我买了就是赚到的感觉）",[827,1511,1512],{},"大道：你看不到确定性可能是因为你对确定性的理解是指很短期的，比如一个月，一个季度啥的。如果你能从10年角度看问题会容易很多。（2026-08-10）",[822,1514,1516],{"id":1515},"第四节-好公司好价格与何时卖","第四节 好公司、好价格与何时卖",[827,1518,1519,1522],{},[830,1520,1521],{},"就投资而言，好公司最重要。（"," 何时卖不那么重要）。（2015-11-01）",[827,1524,1525],{},"其实我对好价钱已经不太提了，合适价钱就好。(2019-05-20)",[827,1527,1528],{},"网友：大道，茅台会不会是你永久不卖的股票。或者说你的股票池里有没有一个你认为不会卖掉的股票。",[827,1530,1531,1533],{},[830,1532,857],{}," ：每个股票我买的时候都是打算不卖的，包括茅台。（2019-08-21）",[827,1535,1536,1537,1539,1540,1546],{},"好价和",[843,1538,120],{"href":845},"的关系是什么呢？其实是",[830,1541,1542,1543,1545],{},"好股",[843,1544,120],{"href":845},"就是好价了，而不是买到了好价钱的意思","。(2019-10-14)",[827,1548,1549,1550,1552,1553,1555],{},"网友：依稀记得大道2014年时说200元买入的",[830,1551,1134],{},"和100多元的",[830,1554,1134],{},"从长远看没什么区别，这话我都回味了近十年啦。",[827,1557,1558,1560,1561,1563,1564,1566],{},[830,1559,895],{}," 很多人说100元当然比200元好，傻子才不知道呢！我们不知道的是当",[830,1562,1134],{},"180元的时候，还会掉到100元吗？我们知道的是180元的",[830,1565,1134],{},"已经很便宜，有钱就先买了。万一真掉到100元了，有闲钱再买，没有就跟自己无关了。(2024-09-27)",[827,1568,1569],{},"网友：一个人有没有能力选择卓越公司，可能需要多年的实践才能验证，这就造成个人能力迭代周期很长，十几二十年后能否获得这个能力也存疑。如果要缩短迭代周期，是不是采用捡烟蒂的方法更高效一点？换句话说，如果不懂得捡烟蒂，认为自己投资了卓越公司的人完全是自嗨？",[827,1571,1572,1574],{},[830,1573,895],{}," 说的好像你知道怎么捡烟蒂似的。（2025-10-18）",[827,1576,1577],{},"网友：段老师：1、当初买万科是因为想打新，也没想着万科能挣什么钱，就想着万科不怎么会赔钱，所以在去年的7月份前买的。",[827,1579,1580],{},"2、现在还是对万科心里不踏实，已逐渐换成保利地产了，没有换成茅台主要是因为茅台没有保利地产便宜，当然这只是短期的看法，茅台万科真实年净利各200亿，现在市值各近4000亿、3000亿，而保利净利140亿，市值不到1000亿，且业绩因股权激励有约束条件，再有从历史上看保利不必万科差，ROE一直比万科要高。我相信，此时的保利也不会怎么赔钱。",[827,1582,1583],{},"当然现价的茅台从长期看也不会赔钱了。",[827,1585,1586,1588],{},[830,1587,895],{}," 20年后往回看，你希望手里拿的是什么？（2016-10-26）",[827,1590,1591],{},"网友：段哥，请问普通投资者如何避免买到2600的茅台，700的腾讯，这类好公司但是没有好价格的情况呢？ 对于泡泡玛特您是怎么毛估估这是好价格 or 合适价格呢？",[827,1593,1594],{},"大道：要避免的办法很简单，就是不碰。（2026-09-01）",[827,1596,1597],{},"网友：看段哥投资的股票，网易和UHAL，都是遇到短期困难的情况，是不是段哥偏好于这类公司？对于那些高成长价格也不菲的公司，段哥如何看？是否有投过？",[827,1599,1600,1602],{},[830,1601,895],{}," 对这种公司我可能有点优势。相对于大多数人而言，我可以比较冷静地去分析这类公司的问题到底是什么，是否可以解决。如果我觉得问题不是要命的，但价格已经是要命的情况下，我可能就会买。买这种公司要小心掉入价值陷阱。高成长的公司比较难买，必须要了解更多。我错过了腾讯和苹果，但买了些Google。说错过的原因是我当时曾经非常想买，但最后没动手。（2010-04-13）",[822,1604,1606],{"id":1605},"第五节-集中投资与仓位","第五节 集中投资与仓位",[827,1608,1609],{},"网友：您觉得个人投资者是集中投资好，还是适度分散好？",[827,1611,1612,1614],{},[830,1613,895],{}," 跟是不是个人投资者无关。我觉得越是懂投资的越应该集中，但据说不太懂投资的人则最好分散到指数类基金，不过我没试过。(2020-10-10)",[827,1616,1617,1618,1621],{},"网友：您觉得投资",[830,1619,1620],{},"伯克希尔","最大的风险在哪里？",[827,1623,1624,1626,1627,1629,1630,1632,1633,1635],{},[830,1625,895],{}," 我有不少",[830,1628,1620],{},"，不是很懂你的问题。我个人认为",[830,1631,1620],{},"大概率可以打败通胀，大于51%的机会可以打败标普500，以及大概率会打败 99%以上说自己不喜欢",[830,1634,949],{},"的人们。",[827,1637,1638,1639,1641,1642,1644,1645,1647],{},"我觉得对多数人而言，买标普500可能是比较好的选择，因为",[830,1640,1620],{},"对多数人毕竟还是“一家”公司，有波动的时候可能会更影响心情。虽然我认为",[830,1643,1620],{},"的长期表现会好过标普500，但也不会好很多的，而拿着标普500对多数很难理解",[830,1646,1620],{},"的人来说心情会好一些。",[827,1649,1650],{},"被通胀抢，好过在股市亏。",[827,1652,1653],{},"网友：大道，我是小白，刚刚学投资就遇见了茅台的好价格，钱不多，就分批买了200股。",[827,1655,1656],{},"大道：买了就好好拿着，就当买了个房子收租金。（2026-08-15）",[827,1658,1659],{},"网友：巴菲特也就这个年化哈。",[827,1661,1662],{},"大道：20%复利50多年，“也”就50多年而已。（2026-08-15）",[827,1664,1665],{},"网友：您曾经说过“安全边际不仅仅是价格”，我理解还包括公司优秀程度、自己了解程度，还有投资比例等等。",[827,1667,1668],{},"假如能看懂10年以上的优秀公司价格又足够低，我觉得我愿意拿出40%的投资比例。",[827,1670,1671,1672,1675,1676,1679],{},"但一个只能看到未来3、5年不算优秀的公司，但经营、资产、",[843,1673,88],{"href":1674},"\u002Fxianjinliu","和股息都比较稳定，其股价甚至只有",[843,1677,79],{"href":1678},"\u002Fjingxianjin","的不到8折，这样的公司值得拿出5%—10%的比例去投入吗？.",[827,1681,1682],{},"我既觉得这是一个小的投资机会，又担心自己陷入了投机的思维，实在忍不住追问师兄：这可以列为一种小比例的投资类型吗？",[827,1684,1685,1687],{},[830,1686,895],{}," 如果你觉得好的投资机会为什么只拿出5-10%呢？留钱干什么？要么就是你觉得这是投机，所以只放5-10%？（2018-01-12）",[827,1689,1690],{},"网友Y：我反倒觉得适当集中更适合普通投资者，他们精力有限，资讯没那么通达，很难关注那么多，投几个自己了解看得懂的，下重注，比分散好多少，生活质量也得以保障啊，关注那么多还不累死？",[827,1692,1693,1696],{},[830,1694,1695],{},"段永平：Peter的做法实际上是属于短视，所以早早就白了少年头，投资也没法做了。80多的老巴依然威武啊，芒格87了还自己开车"," 。（2011-09-29）",[827,1698,1699],{},"网友Z：问题在于大部分投资着都没有老巴的那种法眼相对而言林奇的“只要大部分股票能赚钱，总体业绩还是不错的”这种方法相对容易点（相对而言）",[827,1701,1702,1704,1705,1708],{},[830,1703,895],{}," 呵呵，",[830,1706,1707],{},"大部分人如果学peter的话，会只学到白头发的那部分"," ，而且最后还要亏钱，何苦？不明白老巴的话还是不要碰股市的好。不过，要明白也确实不容易，虽然老巴的办法是最简单的赚钱法，当然亏钱的办法就多了去了。",[827,1710,1711],{},"这里说的最重要的不是peter厉害还是巴菲特厉害的问题，说得是我们这些业余投资者能学谁的问题。老巴的东西实际上和老巴没什么关系，也就是说“买股票就是买公司”和老巴没啥关系，老巴不过和我们一样这么理解和运用罢了。我没办法理解一个搞不懂5只股票（5个公司）的人如何可以靠投100只股票赚钱，历史的统计也很清楚地告诉我们实际上他们确实做不到，句号。",[827,1713,1714],{},"（2011-09-29）",[827,1716,1717],{},"网友：还有什么让您觉得林奇和巴老不太一样的地方？",[827,1719,1720,1722],{},[830,1721,857],{}," ：林奇可以同时拥有1500只股票，巴菲特绝对不会。难道还需要别的区别？（2012-04-30）",[827,1724,1725],{},"Peter绝对是个精于投资的人，但可以同时买1500只股票确实是凡人做不到的。我不喜欢Peter是因为我看不懂他为什么要买那么多股票，确实没时间去看人家同时持有1500只股票理由。（2012-05-15）",[827,1727,1728,1730],{},[830,1729,895],{}," 看看人家Peter林奇，每天要拜访3家公司，我平均一年都拜访不到3家公司。（2012-08-28）",[827,1732,1733],{},"网友：【Peter Lynch的投资策略比巴菲特更有效更容易操作】",[827,1735,1736,1738],{},[830,1737,895],{}," 巴菲特的投资策略基本上是看中了值得投资的股票，下大赌注，持有股票的数量很少。但是，Peter Lynch刚好相反，他持有的股票数量非常多，在他掌管麦哲伦富达基金的时候，他买过的股票有1400多种之多。他的道理相对简单：假设你平均持有10只股票，其中有6只股票赚了，你基本上能与大市持平，如果再有一只10倍股（Tenbagger）那你肯定大赚。",[827,1740,1741],{},"因为一只股票最大的损失也就100%（即赔光，更何况这种概率很小），但是一只股票的上涨是没有限制的可以赚5倍，10倍，50倍。巴菲特策略的重点在于每只股票都看的非常准确，这是普通人很难达到的，但Peter Lynch的策略中只要你的多数股票赚钱就可以，可以容忍少数股票赔钱，这种策略比较适合普通投资者。",[827,1743,1744,1745,1748],{},"当然，他们都有共同点，就是投资的时候非常谨慎，完全研究清楚了再投；另外还有一个共同点，就是",[843,1746,197],{"href":1747},"\u002Fnaixin","持有。",[827,1750,1751],{},[830,1752,1753],{},"林奇最高时好像有过接近2000只股票，我不觉得他会在乎任何公司的价值，不管他说过什么。",[827,1755,1756],{},"网友：如果看好的股票到达了可以接受的价格，您是习惯一次性全仓买入，还是分批买入？我很纠结。",[827,1758,1759,1761],{},[830,1760,895],{}," 你纠结的东西不是关于价值的，10年后回头看没啥意义。除非你钱太多，不然见到好价钱只买一点点是件说不过去的事情。(2019-07-22)",[827,1763,1764,1766],{},[830,1765,857],{}," ：我一般见到自己满意的机会就出手了，不太留钱，但会换股。比如，过去一年多的时间里，我把网易和GE等都基本卖了，不然也没钱买想买的股票。另外，我经常卖put，所以一到期就又有钱了。我对比例一般不太在意，但对自己认为有风险的则会严格控制比例，比如银行股不超过20%等。（2011-12-06）",[827,1768,1769],{},"网友：你曾经大手笔和股神午餐，据说为了一个问题。“发现机会后，没有现金怎么办？”今天，我也有很多问题想问您，可惜我没有午餐费，希望赐教！",[827,1771,1772],{},"您的一个评论回复如下：“如果我买的公司是我很想买的公司，掉的时候我不会觉得心情不好。如果手里还有钱或还能从别的地方找到钱，我可能反而会觉得兴奋，因为可以买得更便宜。比如我在10块左右开始买GE，后来一直掉到6块，我就一直很高兴地多买了很多（比前面买的还要多很多）。”",[827,1774,1775],{},"我想问，1、既然10元开始看好GE，为什么你没有一次性重仓？不敢一次性重仓的原因是对自己股值没信心，还是对市场走势没信心？",[827,1777,1778],{},"2、后续加仓资金是哪里来的？凭您的建树，融资很容易，但是大多数人都很难。",[827,1780,1781],{},"3、如果您10元买入之后，手头已无任何资金来源，如何面对腰斩困境。因为这时候股票越来越便宜，对于您没有任何利用价值。就像巴佬的面包理论，如果我昨天全部买了面包，今天面包跌了，我还能因为能更便宜的买入面包而高兴吗？",[827,1783,1784],{},"4、如果前面三个问题都是因为资金分配的错误，请问段大哥，您是如何思考并做好资金分配的呢？",[827,1786,1787],{},"5、好企业很多，但是能用合适的价格买到的好企业不多，如果不做定量分析，怎么判断合理的价格？",[827,1789,1790,1791,1793,1794,1796],{},"6、巴老之所以重仓长期持有某些公司，是不是因为这些公司能给他带来持续的",[843,1792,88],{"href":1674},"，然后找到好公司，等待合理的价位建立头寸，即使下跌，",[843,1795,88],{"href":1674},"可以不断“补仓”平抑成本，然后自下一个趋势中占据一个好的位置。这是巴老成功的秘诀吗？",[827,1798,1799],{},"盼段大哥能不吝拨冗赐教。",[827,1801,1802,1804],{},[830,1803,895],{}," 我当时后续的资金主要是来源于卖了其他的股票。我做投资不用融资的。如果没钱了以后股票掉了就不管了。这种事情经常发生，买了想买的股票后，有一半的机会他还会掉一会。如果为这种事情着急得话，那要着急一辈子。我记得巴菲特讲过，希望刚刚买的股票大涨是一种愚蠢的想法。我很少考虑所谓的资金分配的问题，有合适的股票就买，没有就闲着。",[827,1806,1807],{},"买股票当然要做定量分析，不然怎么搞？",[827,1809,1810],{},"老巴成功的秘诀是他知道自己买的是什么。",[827,1812,1813],{},"有人问过芒格，如果只能用一个词来形容他们的成功，那会是什么？他的回答是：“rationality”，呵呵，有点像我们说的平常心。（2010-05-09）",[827,1815,1816,1817,1819,1820,1823],{},"网友：",[830,1818,1134],{},"和",[830,1821,1822],{},"苹果","的资金分配可以量化么？比如这个3成那个5成？",[827,1825,1826,1828],{},[830,1827,895],{}," 从来没算过，也不觉得重要。(2019-05-27)",[827,1830,1831,1833,1834,1836,1837,1839],{},[830,1832,895],{}," 我一生中单吊一股不是一次两次了，创立公司是，投",[830,1835,596],{},"也是。",[830,1838,949],{},"也不是一次两次了。(2023-05-12)",[827,1841,1842,1844],{},[830,1843,857],{}," ：我自己从事企业经营只有10多年，之后开始投资到现在也差不多10年。在这10年里在有兴趣的企业里我大致看懂了不到10家企业（被排除的不算，投错的不算）重手投了5家，差不多两年一家，没想象的那么难吧？",[827,1846,1847],{},"什么，你投的企业比我多多了？那你要小心了，一般而言，超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚的越少。（2012-06-24）",[827,1849,1850,1852],{},[830,1851,895],{}," 平均两年做一个大的投资决策的效果肯定比一年做两个更好。（2012-06-26）",[827,1854,1855,1857,1858,1861],{},[830,1856,895],{}," 大道这4年里只真正出手了一次，就是苹果，上一次出手是GE，大概这是其会成为极少数人的原因？",[830,1859,1860],{},"如果大道只敢平均两年出手一次，凭什么“散户”可以出手更多？"," （2012-07-17）",[827,1863,1864,1866],{},[830,1865,895],{}," 不要一年做20个决策。1年做20个决策，肯定会出错，那不是价值投资。一辈子做20个投资决策就够了。（2018-09-30）",[827,1868,1869],{},"网友：请教个问题。作为一个普通而不是专业的投资人，能力圈肯定是比较小的，能看懂的行业和企业肯定范围很小。能在低价买进的机会更少，对于我们来说价值投资就是等待，不知对不？",[827,1871,1872,1874],{},[830,1873,895],{}," 任何人都不是每天都有机会的。好像巴菲特说过，一个人一生当中能有4-5次机会就很不错了。关键是，当机会出现时你是否能抓住。你说的等待也是很好的理解。每个人总是会懂点什么东西的，什么都不懂的人真的不多。（2010-03-27）",[827,1876,1877],{},"网友：段大哥：您说：有很多人，一辈子都不懂，所以一辈子都不碰股票，他们也是最好的价值投资者。这样的人很难找呀。我们有时候手里有好多现金的时候心里难受啊。您同意价值投资者的最高境界是非常有耐心？宁可不做，不要做错？",[827,1879,1880,1882],{},[830,1881,895],{}," 是啊，尽管我也很难做到。按巴菲特和芒格的意思，一年出手一次就算很多了。仔细想起来，我过去如果能做到这一点，可能会多赚很多钱。总的来讲，看准了出手就要狠。似懂非懂很难下手狠。耐心等待总是有机会的。（2010-06-02）",[827,1884,1885],{},"网友：段哥，今年40岁，河南新乡，有4000万港币，一个孩子一个女儿，一套房子，公司马上不行了，我该如何做才能保证不穷啊",[827,1887,1888],{},"大道：不赌不毒……, 茅台和泡泡玛特各一半，不动不上雪球，不在乎别人赚多少……。当然，不知道你对不穷的定义到底是什么？ 一年100开销应该可以算了吧？（2026-08-20）",[827,1890,1891],{},"网友：老大，你在资本人物中曾经说过你投资是非常的集中。这样是否不符合风控要求，因为你认为你懂了的生意，但也未必看到了所有风险，况且企业是发展变化的！我想法是相对集中，关注弄懂10个左右，持有3-5个，并不断换到性价比更低的组合，你觉得如何？换到性价比更好的组合。",[827,1893,1894,1896],{},[830,1895,895],{}," 呵呵，其实我也同意你的做法。我的问题是，有时觉得了解一只股票都非常难，十只几乎是“mission impossible”.（2010-03-25）",[827,1898,1899],{},"网友：有人说资金量小可以关注成长性更强的小公司，您的建议呢？",[827,1901,1902,1904],{},[830,1903,895],{}," 我没啥建议，你要不懂投资，其实都是一样的，你要懂投资其实也没啥区别。(2022-01-23)",[827,1906,1907,1908,1910,1911,1914],{},"投资的原理是一样的。找小公司也是要找那些",[843,1909,70],{"href":1492},"好、",[843,1912,135],{"href":1913},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","好，但规模和市值都比较小，大家还没发现的那种。现在回过头来想，多数小额投资者投小公司有可能情况会更糟，因为小公司往往资料比较少，小额投资者更容易中招。",[827,1916,1917],{},"但假如我自己作为一个小额投资者(依然比较懂企业)，如果有时间的话，我会努力去找那些我认为大有前景的小公司，这样回报会高不少。(2019-04-30)",[827,1919,1920],{},"秦朔：巴菲特有一个特点，我们注意到它比较集中的去投资，他看中一个股票它会买很多很多，甚至成为他的大股东了。但是在中国的市场上，因为大家觉得持久发展的好公司并不是很多，所以大家比较喜欢不把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，很喜欢分散投资，你自己觉得呢？",[827,1922,1923,1925],{},[830,1924,895],{}," 你首先要搞清楚一个概念，大家是在讨论投资还是在讨论投机，分散那个叫理财，它根本既不是投资甚至也不算投机，他就是理财，理财就是希望大势涨我就跟着涨，所以你就撒胡椒面撒下去，拿个大黑猩猩往墙上扔飞镖，这是最典型的例子，对吧？可能比这个分析师赚的钱还多，这个我觉得它不叫投机也不叫投资。",[827,1927,1928],{},"投资就是说你去找到一个好的公司，然后你把你的钱投到一个你认为最好的公司里头，既然你认为他最好你只投了一小部分，然后把剩下的钱投到你认为不够好的公司里头，这逻辑上就是错的。所以我投资也这样，你比方像我投网易的时候，就是把我当时能够动用的钱都投进去了。（2006-7-18）",[827,1930,1931],{},"网友：投资出手的规律是什么？",[827,1933,1934,1936],{},[830,1935,857],{}," ：投资的一般规律是：出手越多，赚得越少或赔得越多。（2010-04-23）",[827,1938,1939],{},"不知道是芒格还是巴菲特说过，如果一个人的投资生涯中只出手20次（大致比喻），他的成绩单会比更多次出手要好得多。我看完这句话后反省自己的结果是确实如此。我想大概一年能有一次机会就很好了。（2010-05-08）",[827,1941,1942],{},"网友：你讲的是巴老曾说过的卡片打洞投资策略，假设人一生只有投资20次的机会！巴菲特只说了个结论，我们却不知道他为什么这么说。不知能否从理论上证明20次确实比200次好呢？",[827,1944,1945,1947],{},[830,1946,857],{}," ：呵呵，就是那个打20次卡的说法。我觉得我的出手次数也太多了，以后要尽量少些。（2010-05-09）",[827,1949,1950,1952],{},[830,1951,895],{}," 这段时间老在出差，没什么时间上博客写，但看到大家在讨论安全边际。",[827,1954,1955],{},"我其实不完全明白老巴安全边际的意思。",[827,1957,1958],{},[830,1959,1960],{},"我自己对安全边际的理解实际上是自己对要投资的生意的了解度。",[827,1962,1963],{},[830,1964,1965],{},"自己觉得风险越小的投入的比例就可以越大些。",[827,1967,1968],{},"比如，在觉得苹果很有投资价值的同时，虽然觉得乔布斯如果离开对苹果一段时间里（比如3-5年）影响很小，但没有绝对把握，所以就把投资上限设在30%。如果乔布斯现在35岁且身体很健康，其他条件不变的情况下，我可以投80-90%进去。",[827,1970,1971],{},"总的来讲，我感觉中的安全边际指的不仅仅是价格。（2011-06-29）",[827,1973,1974],{},"网友：请教大道所谓重仓的比例是多少？我知道的当年重仓网易好像是100%，这次重仓苹果好像是30%。",[827,1976,1977,1979],{},[830,1978,895],{}," 每个管理的账号不一样，现在大概有60-70%了吧。（2012-07-11）",[827,1981,1982],{},"网友：我的问题是您说的下‘重手’一般是多大比例？我自己一般是重仓30-40%觉得很多了，一只股票很少有超过50%的时候。我觉得就算我非常了解一家公司，也仍然有可能犯错，所以不太敢重仓太多，宁愿找3-4只平衡一下。也许是对公司的理解还不够深，我也只能承认不足，不敢买的比例太高。",[827,1984,1985,1987],{},[830,1986,857],{}," ：一般的比例是0%-100%，取决于你自己懂多少。举个最简单的例子，如果你只对一家放心，觉得这家肯定能给你自己觉得可以接受的回报，那你把所有钱放里面也是无可厚非的---比如全部钱存在银行---大家千万不要笑话采用这种做法的人，看见这条回复的人里有相当比例的回报是不如这种做法的人的，这还没算上这些年被心理折磨的损失。（2013-02-16）",[827,1989,1990],{},"网友：请教您个问题，您分配资金在不同股票上的逻辑是什么呢？",[827,1992,1993,1995],{},[830,1994,895],{}," 我通常比较集中于比较了解的公司，比如苹果，茅台。但也会买一些自己觉得不错但又觉得有些了解不那么透的公司，这种公司放的比例一般会很小。（2019-05-27）",[827,1997,1998,2000],{},[830,1999,895],{}," 我从头到尾真正投资过的公司最多五六家，卖掉了一些，我持有的公司一般在三家左右。巴菲特的哈撒韦一千多亿美元市值，也才投十来家。我不怕集中，我不是一般的集中，我是绝对的集中。（《中国企业家》杂志报道）",[827,2002,2003],{},"我们的经验往往会验证一个长久以来的观念：只要做好准备，在人生中抓住几个机会，迅速地采取适当的行动，去做简单而合乎逻辑的事情，这辈子的财富就会得到极大的增长。",[827,2005,2006],{},"上面提到的这种机会很少，它们通常会落在不断地寻找和等待、充满求知欲望而又热衷于对各种不同的可能性作出分析的人头上。",[827,2008,2009],{},"这样的机会来临之后，如果获胜的几率极高，那么动用过去的谨慎和耐心得来的资源，重重地压下赌注就可以了。",[827,2011,2012],{},"网友：我一直都困惑于集中与分散投资的问题，在实际操作过程在也常常是困惑于一次买入还是分批建仓的问题，看了段总的回答，似乎明白了一些。关键还是自己对标的公司是否真正的了解，是否看懂了，如果真正看懂了就应该敢于下重手。",[827,2014,2015,2017],{},[830,2016,857],{}," ：如果你没看懂的话，你下的是什么手？（2014-07-30）",[827,2019,2020],{},"网友：请问您有关于价值投资仓位配制或比例配置的讲究吗？其中是不是很有学问呢？怎样的一套模式才比较合理呢？好像没有人哪个价值投资者就拿1只股来做的，就连成长股大师费雪也不例外，很荣幸能得到您的答疑解惑，谢谢！",[827,2022,2023,2025],{},[830,2024,895],{}," 巴菲特早期有过，芒格有过，我也有过。钱少尤其要focus。好容易找到一个好价格的好股票，不集中是不明白的表现。（2010-05-30）",[827,2027,2028],{},"网友：“卡片打洞”是啥意思？怎么也想不明白，",[827,2030,2031,2033],{},[830,2032,857],{}," ：一张可以打20个孔的卡片，每一次动手（投资）就打一个孔，一生中只有20次机会。（2010-06-01）",[827,2035,2036],{},"引用：“当沃伦在商学院上课时，他说：我用一张考勤卡就能改善你最终的财务状况，这张卡片上有20格，所以你只能有20次打卡的机会——这代表你一生中所能拥有的投资次数。当你把卡打完之后，你就再也不能进行投资了。在这样的规则之下，你将会真正地慎重考虑你做的事情，你将不得不花大笔资金在你真正想投资的项目上。这样你的表现将会好的多。”1990",[827,2038,2039,2042],{},[830,2040,2041],{},"芒格："," 如果你把我们15个最好的决策剔除，我们的业绩将会非常平庸（游戏的重点）。你需要的不是大量的行动，而是极大的耐心。你必须坚持原则，等到机会来临，你就用力去抓住它们。",[827,2044,2045],{},"网友：呵呵，集中当然是有好处的，但是我的看法是没有必要为了集中而集中，或许在一定的阶段后需要集中一次，这样比较好，当然太散了不妥当。",[827,2047,2048],{},"1．你的说法偏静态了，可以投的钱如果源源来，原来的好价格好公司不一定会在原地等你，让每一笔钱尽可能围绕优势机会才是围绕价值的核心。",[827,2050,2051],{},"2．巴老说的一生打卡打20个孔是一个比喻，他自己从小资金开始到现在，已经买了无数的股票了（当然总体上还是集中的，相比分散的基金他是集中的）。",[827,2053,2054],{},"3。我认为公司和价格同时要看，是同时，缺哪块都不行，在执行上当然还是先看公司为主。",[827,2056,2057],{},"每两年投一次，这个思想到是精益求精的意思，确实是需要长期追求的。能够在10个以上的股票里再选择抛弃一些，可能也是一种功力或是积极姿态了，不过有时稍显消极我感觉也许也可以。",[827,2059,2060,2062],{},[830,2061,895],{}," 集中是简单但非常难的事情，大多数人很难搞懂且没法做得到。",[827,2064,2065],{},"有点像苹果的iphone款式和诺基亚的手机品种一样，多好还是少好？哪个容易？",[827,2067,2068],{},"是啊，确实很难。赚大钱当然是件很难的事情，要唔懂确实不容易，尤其是“聪明人”往往更不容易。（2011-02-18）",[827,2070,2071],{},"网友：那这种比如茅台、苹果的资金分配，可以量化么？比如这个是3成，那个是5成？这个比例怎么确定呢？",[827,2073,2074,2076],{},[830,2075,895],{}," 从来没算过，也不觉得重要。（2019-05-27）",[827,2078,2079],{},"问：您如何看待投资多元化？",[827,2081,2082,2084],{},[830,2083,895],{}," 投资多元化是个伪命题。所谓投资多元化指的是理财，它和投资是两种不同的游戏。理财是鸡蛋太多，放进不同的篮子里，通过盈亏平衡达到保值的目的。而对于投资而言，一旦认准了好的篮子，就不存在鸡蛋太多的问题。",[827,2086,2087],{},"网友：大道对携程看走眼了呀！携程现在蛮优秀的。",[827,2089,2090,2092],{},[830,2091,895],{}," 他看走眼的公司多了去了，你感觉是不是好了很多？！但投资不是关于你是不是看走眼了，而是你是不是有看懂的好公司下了重注。他要一直没有看走眼过，他早就是世界首富的好多倍了。（2025-07-27）",[827,2094,2095],{},"网友：段总，对投资而言，是努力钻研发现不同公司的机会重要，还是坚守着一只好股不管波动重要？",[827,2097,2098,2100],{},[830,2099,895],{}," 看上去两者你都不会啊。（2025-10-18）",[827,2102,2103,2104,2107],{},"网友：大道，请教一下，您认为投资金额占个人资产多少百分比，才能比较",[843,2105,222],{"href":2106},"\u002Flixing","地去看待投资？",[827,2109,2110,2111,2113],{},"大道：你要是没明白这个问题，就说明你还很不",[843,2112,222],{"href":2106},"。（2025-11-13）",[827,2115,2116],{},"网友：（网友分享持有比特币多年的开心）",[827,2118,2119,2120,2122],{},"大道：我有个很熟的朋友（球友），以前是跟着乔布斯的，非常聪明厉害的人，也有很多",[830,2121,1822],{},"的股票（成本几分钱或者几毛钱一股的那种）。他很早就投了比特币，一直没卖过。他几年前就一直跟我说比特币很有意思，等等……",[827,2124,2125],{},"两个月前我们一起打球的时候，我突然好奇问了一句：你那么喜欢比特币，而且一直没卖过，那比特币占你的财产比重能有多少，10%以上？他犹豫了一会儿，然后小声说大概1%吧。",[827,2127,2128],{},"投资很重要的一点是要敢下重注，那么喜欢的东西在涨了那么多倍之后才占了不到1%？那叫啥？概率上敢赌的人里面总有人会赌中的，但能不能重复是最关键的。（2026-04-12）",[827,2130,2131,2132,2134,2135,2137],{},"网友：您大量买入",[830,2133,596],{},"和U-Haul Holding Company(UHAL)似乎都发生在2002、2003年左右，最近三五年有没有比较经典的大手笔投资的案例(除了",[830,2136,1822],{},")?",[827,2139,2140,2142,2143,2145,2146,2148],{},[830,2141,895],{}," 最好把",[830,2144,596],{},"也除掉，我就快成笑话了。(仿",[830,2147,972],{},"语)(2012-02-02)",[827,2150,2151],{},"平均两年做一个大的投资决策的效果肯定比一年做两个更好。(2012-06-26)",[827,2153,2154,2155,2157,2158,2161],{},"大道这四年里只真正出手了一次，就是",[830,2156,1822],{},"，上一次出手是",[830,2159,2160],{},"GE","，大概这是其会成为极少数人的原因？",[827,2163,2164],{},"如果大道只敢平均两年出手一次，凭什么“散户”可以出手更多？(2012-07-17)",[827,2166,2167],{},"网友：从投资理念的角度来说，其中有一小点我不是非常认同——“如果涉及太多个股的话，会被判断为非价值投资者的”。确实，绝大部分人如果随意探讨或推荐股票，确实就是股民而非股东，但是理论上，我觉得这句话本身不太正确，呵呵，不好意思我只是太理论地说事了。",[827,2169,2170],{},"价值投资与谈论个股的多少（在一定的范围内）可能关系不大吧？！我感觉很多美国的基金都是价值投资的思路，但是只是在采取分散还是集中策略上有所分歧，这个集中和分散是相对的。林奇同一时间的持股可能高达上百个，但是他是价值投资者。",[827,2172,2173],{},"从能力圈的范围来说，从集中精研公司的角度，绝对是应该少而精，不过有时不同细分行业中也确实都有各自的“皇冠上的明珠”，我也不太赞同“超过7个股票就不是价值投资者”的说法，这个数字的确定意义不大，我感觉围绕公司还是最重要的。",[827,2175,2176],{},"只是感觉并非一定要集中才是投资，可能功力还不够，希望段总指正。",[827,2178,2179,2181],{},[830,2180,895],{}," 呵呵，你聪明但不够智慧。总而言之，投的越多、赚的越少、退休越早（累的，像皮特·林奇。）（2011-02-15）",[827,2183,2184],{},"网友：段总，我今年31岁，女生，目标是存够100万纳指100万腾讯100万泡泡玛特，目前也已经在朝着这个目标努力，等我退休的时候这个组合够了吗？ 求指教泡泡玛特 腾讯控股",[827,2186,2187],{},"大道：这两家公司我都有不少，但比重都没有你说得这么高。如果你真的完全不懂公司，且目的只是为退休做保值的话，也许还是买S&P500，QQQ或者BRKB更合适一些。仔细想来，任何公司都是可能存在很多变化的，有些是基本面的，有些是市场的。不懂你很难拿得住，也很折磨。话说回来，如果你其实是很懂这两家公司的话，那你这个配置应该也是不错的。拿着你自己喜欢且看得懂的公司很重要。（2026-09-04）",[822,2189,2191],{"id":2190},"第六节-机会成本","第六节 机会成本",[827,2193,2194,2195,2197,2198,2201],{},"网友：A股除了",[830,2196,1134],{},"，还有哪个公司你认为",[830,2199,2200],{},"生意模式","不错？",[827,2203,2204,2206,2207,2209],{},[830,2205,895],{}," 作为一个懒人，我能了解的公司很少。不过你这个问题翻译过来就是10年后(或者20年后)的某一天来看现在我应该用",[830,2208,1134],{},"来换哪个公司呢？假设一个礼拜后股市就关闭了，10年或20年后的某一天再开，你的决策会是什么？(2019-09-08)",[827,2211,2212,2213,2216],{},"网友：亚马逊、",[830,2214,2215],{},"阿里巴巴","的合理价格一直非常困惑，请问有办法大概估算吗？按未来电商占整个零售业的可能的比例考虑合理吗？",[827,2218,2219,2220,2223],{},"另外，向您请教：如果投资的伟大企业中有一家非常便宜了，另外几家价格合理，卖出价格合理的买入特别便宜的算是",[843,2221,23],{"href":2222},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","吗？谢谢！",[827,2225,2226,2228,2229,2232],{},[830,2227,895],{}," 我知道amazon是家伟大的公司，但也不知道应该值多少钱，不过未来他们一年赚500亿或更多似乎不是件太困难的事情。",[830,2230,2231],{},"换来换去这种事情难度比较高，少作为佳。"," (2019-06-01)",[827,2234,2235],{},"网友：段哥，反正买标普500最后总是赚钱。为什么不把标普过去10年或者20年的收益率做为机会成本，而选择美债呢",[827,2237,2238],{},"大道：你知道无风险的意思吗？ 那你为什么不把巴菲特过去50年的获利作为你的机会成本？每个人的机会成本是不一样的，因为每个人的认知不同，但无风险利率是一样的，也就是说最低机会成本是一样的。如果你的“投资”回报是长期低于无风险利率的话，你是应该回避“投资”的。（2026-08-18）",[827,2240,2241],{},"大道：伯克希尔-哈撒韦B\n20年国债已经5.4%，无风险利率=最低机会成本。（2026-08-18）",[827,2243,2244],{},"网友P：他还是亏的钱少，亏到心里痛痛的，就发誓要改变了。",[827,2246,2247,2249],{},[830,2248,895],{}," 绝大多数人是不会改的。再说，这个做法也不一定就亏钱，亏的是机会成本，所以不容易明白。（2010-07-10）",[827,2251,2252,2253,2256],{},"网友：“",[830,2254,2255],{},"所谓安全边际指的应该是自己对公司的理解度而不是价钱”，“什么价格买完全取决于你自己资金的机会成本”。您这两句话解开了我的很多困惑"," ，但自己理解还不够透彻，还需要多琢磨。",[827,2258,2259,2261],{},[830,2260,857],{}," ：其实每个人都会有自己的答案的，就是：你还有更好的选择吗？（2015-06-08）",[827,2263,2264],{},"网友：不这么做不但损失惨重，而且还会错失好的机会，时间越长这一正一负的差额越大，损失越大。",[827,2266,2267,2269,2270,2273],{},[830,2268,895],{}," 对，就是",[843,2271,115],{"href":2272},"\u002Fjihuichengben","的意思。",[827,2275,2276,2279],{},[830,2277,2278],{},"段永平：在股票价钱很低的时候建议最好不要卖put"," ，机会成本大，会失去好价钱买到好公司的机会。",[827,2281,2282,2283,2285],{},"网友：“最可惜的是，这次错误把现金储备全部消耗掉了，",[843,2284,115],{"href":2272},"巨大”，是不是指现金用完了，真正好的投资标的来时，却没钱买了。",[827,2287,2288,2290,2291,2293],{},[830,2289,895],{}," 是的，",[843,2292,115],{"href":2272},"大，亏点钱是小事。(2010-05-12)",[827,2295,2296,2297,2299,2300,2302,2303,2305],{},"网友：你在",[830,2298,596],{},"、",[830,2301,1822],{},"等公司的投资收益非常高，但关于个股选择的",[843,2304,115],{"href":2272},"，却只跟美国国债(收益很低)比较，而不是跟标普等指数比较。为什么？",[827,2307,2308,2310],{},[830,2309,895],{}," 其实跟什么比并不能改变你投资的原则。我喜欢选个标准比较低一点的，满足感比较好。要长期战胜标普非常难，虽然我投资以来的实际成绩总的来说是好过标普的，但我宁愿将其归之于运气，因为我无法知道未来我还能不能做到。",[827,2312,2313],{},"我个人认为，投资最重要的动机是保值，保持购买力不下降。其他都是附带的。多数人可能没有意识到保值不是件容易的事情。看下M2的数字也许能明白点？",[827,2315,2316],{},"投资是抵抗通胀的最好办法，不是最好办法之一。所以没有闲钱投资是件痛苦的事情。",[827,2318,2319],{},"做固定收益是一定会输给通胀的，所以长期而言是错的。但是，如果你实在是找不到愿意投的公司，那投固定收益也是一个选择，肯定比拿着现金放在保险柜里好。",[827,2321,2322,2323,2325],{},"网友：引申到投资上，多数人被套住的时候都会守在那里，直到解套，而不是比较解套和其他标的哪一个机会更大。其实每天的收盘价就是我们的",[843,2324,115],{"href":2272},"，没有卖就等于买了，否则可以买其他。所以非常认同段老师的卖和买入成本无关的说法，可惜能过这一关的人太少了，我自己也是挣扎了几年才爬过这一关的。",[827,2327,2328,2330],{},[830,2329,895],{}," 赞。(2010-03-31)",[827,2332,2333,2334,2336,2337,2339,2340,2342,2343,2342,2345,2347],{},"讲个真实的小故事吧，大概差不多快10年前了，公司的同事或者说朋友们告诉我，弟兄们买了很多忠旺的股票，麻烦让我看下这家公司。于是我确实飞过去看了这家公司。回来后我告诉弟兄们：我觉得这家公司",[843,2335,70],{"href":1492},"一般，",[843,2338,135],{"href":1913},"一般，大家卖了吧，无论亏赚，换",[830,2341,1134],{},"或者",[830,2344,1822],{},[830,2346,1363],{},"都应该更好啊。",[827,2349,2350,2351,2353],{},"当时忠旺股价在3块左右。大部分人很快就换了，但确实有人不舍得换，总是说会有机会的会有机会的。一转眼这么多年过去了……",[843,2352,115],{"href":2272},"杠杠的。(2020-04-26)",[827,2355,2356],{},"网友：合适的价格有什么模糊的标准？",[827,2358,2359,2361,2362,2364,2365,2367],{},[830,2360,895],{}," 价格合适主要指的是你自己的",[843,2363,115],{"href":2272},"(也可以扩展到社会的",[843,2366,115],{"href":2272},")。比如你喜欢一个公司，你觉得未来20年的回报能有8%\u002F年，但同时你又是一个很会赚钱的人，平时总能赚到10%\u002F年，那你当然就可以考虑等等，看看有没有更好的机会。",[827,2369,2370],{},"如果你只是把钱放在银行吃1%\u002F年的利息的话，年回报8%就很好了，千万别听隔壁小马赚了很多钱的那些故事，哪怕那故事是真的。举个极端的例子，有个公司你觉得回报能有10%\u002F年，但银行利息是15%，你该怎么办？(实际情况往往是股价会掉得很厉害。)(2019-05-17)",[827,2372,2373,2374,2376],{},"网友：假如同时看好两家企业，从",[843,2375,115],{"href":2272},"上看大道会怎样选择？",[827,2378,2379,2381],{},[830,2380,895],{}," 你试试从10或者20年后的角度看看？（2025-10-12）",[827,2383,2384],{},"网友：房子卖了，大部分资金已经到账，准备直接买入茅台，不用纠结 1300 还是 1400，10 年后看，完全没有任何影响。",[827,2386,2387],{},"大道：可以拿2%把卖掉的房子租回来住，或者租个相当的，这样生活质量不受影响。（2026-08-12）",[827,2389,2390,2391,2394],{},"网友：请教一个问题。如果您原来持有一个好股票，同时出现了另一个好股票（在",[843,2392,33],{"href":2393},"\u002Fnengliquan","内），假设是这两个股票您都认为很好，你觉得一般您会如何选择？",[827,2396,2397,2399],{},[830,2398,895],{}," 这是一个机会成本的问题（芒格是这么说的，我非常同意）。（2010-06-09）",[827,2401,2402],{},"网友：周末逛书店，看到了88元的穷查理宝典，也是李路作序的那个版本，只不过是简装版，可惜已经买了300块钱的精装，这次购买精装版的兄弟们，是否从价值投资的角度来说，做了错误的决策？不够耐心？",[827,2404,2405,2407],{},[830,2406,895],{}," 早看几个月还赚不会这几百块（平均而言），那投资还是不干为好。要知道什么是机会成本啊。（2010-11-29）",[827,2409,2410],{},"网友M：我觉得机会成本还是无风险国债合适一点。因为无论你把钱投在哪个渠道，比如国债、股票还是其他，都要面对通胀对收益的侵蚀，既然通胀不可避免，因此就不能算是一个机会问题。而且如果某一年通货紧缩的话，就不太好解释了。",[827,2412,2413,2415],{},[830,2414,857],{}," ：我想你是对的，通胀率其实不是机会成本而应该是“基本回报率”，在投资时其实无法考虑通胀率，但可以比较利率。（2012-04-13）",[827,2417,2418],{},"网友：请教段哥一个关于换股或称资产配置的问题。如果持有2个股票，同样估值1元钱，一个现在是4毛，另一个现在是9毛，换还是不换？是不是资产到一定程度了，就不去考虑这个事情了，为了那几个点的提高弄得思维混乱，不划算？",[827,2420,2421,2423],{},[830,2422,895],{}," 如果你能确认是4毛对9毛，那为什么不换？现实中不换往往是因为不能确认吧？（2010-04-27）",[827,2425,2426],{},"网友J：呵呵，我倒是不同意您的这种说法，价值投资原理是简单，但并不容易。如果读一本书在短期见效的话真如巴菲特所说，世界首富会是图书管理员了。简单应该是长期努力的结果，而不是起点。",[827,2428,2429],{},"如果这么容易受外界（书也好，电视专访也好）影响，那投资是危险的了……读书也是一样，拿您的书举例，首先要看是不是马云写的，别人写的未必对，即使是马云自己说的、媒体人写的，也可能如巴菲特所说，媒体往往会断章取义、曲解本意。这方面王石等公众人物都深有体会，也深受其害了。",[827,2431,2432,2434,2435,2438],{},[830,2433,895],{}," 呵呵，至少对我而言是如此啊。",[830,2436,2437],{},"你可能还不明白机会成本的意思。我如果能更早明白巴菲特，可能更早就可以在投资上有所作为了。当然，对看不懂的人而言，早看晚看是一样的。"," （2010-11-29）",[827,2440,2441,2443],{},[830,2442,895],{}," “想起沉入成本。还想起老巴说的，如果是个坑就别再往下挖了。看看有多少人在给自己挖坑就明白了。（2012-06-26）",[827,2445,2446],{},"网友：请教大道一个问题，如果我持有的一家公司，目前利润是10亿，我预计10年内到50亿应该没有问题，但是现在市场先生就突然给了他500亿的市值。而我又没有其他的标的，我是该继续持有还是卖掉？",[827,2448,2449,2451],{},[830,2450,895],{}," 如果你认为这家公司10年后依然还有很好的成长，那你也许应该留着。这种决策不容易，是个机会成本问题。（2013-03-13）",[827,2453,2454],{},"网友：请教一下，有关机会成本是不是可以这样理解：A和B两个投资标的市场价格为都为1元，而价值都为2元，A在一年时间内价格回到了2元，而B第一年内价格甚至到了0.8元，经过三年才回到了2元，这种价格回到价值的时间差异就是机会成本。",[827,2456,2457,2459],{},[830,2458,895],{}," 机会成本（Opportunity Cost）（又称为择一成本、替代性成本）是指做一个选择后所丧失的不做该选择而可能获得的最大利益。简单的讲，可以理解为把一定资源投入某一用途后所放弃的在其他用途中所能获得的利益。任何决策，必须作出一定的选择，被舍弃掉的选项中的最高价值者即是这次决策的机会成本。",[827,2461,2462],{},"机会成本对商业公司来说，可以是利用一定的时间或资源生产一种商品时，而失去的利用这些资源生产其他最佳替代品的机会就是机会成本。（2013-03-22）",[827,2464,2465],{},"网友：我们不会仅仅因为企业处于困境就卖掉它，这是我们的品格。（芒格）当我发现自己处在一个洞穴之中时，最重要的事情就是停止挖掘（巴老），",[827,2467,2468],{},"请教段先生这两句话会适用在同一个公司吗？我还在过去的沉没成本中矛盾着。",[827,2470,2471,2473],{},[830,2472,895],{}," 如果是对的企业，就不应该在便宜的时候卖掉。如果是错的公司，至少不要再买了。如果你觉得自己现在持有的公司在看得到的未来某一天会完蛋，你觉得是应该：",[827,2475,2476],{},"1．加码，因为前面买的亏了，要摊低成本等他反弹时卖掉补回成本？",[827,2478,2479],{},"2．不买但也不卖，希望能有个反弹的机会卖掉？",[827,2481,2482],{},"3．忘掉自己什么价买的，平常心去想这个公司值多少钱？",[827,2484,2485],{},"4．你说什么呢，我只是个打工族，虽然手里有票，但不持有任何公司。",[827,2487,2488],{},"这个问题有点像到底是该“当机立断”还是“三思而后行”呢？或者是“慈不带兵”还是“爱兵如子”呢？（2013-04-08）",[827,2490,2491],{},"网友P：显然应该忘掉自己是什么价位买的，平常心去想这个公司值多少钱。",[827,2493,2494,2496],{},[830,2495,895],{}," 呵呵，这个最难。（2013-04-24）",[827,2498,2499],{},"人们破产的常见原因是不能控制心理上的纠结。你花了这么多心血、这么多金钱，花的越多，就越容易这么想：“估计快成了，再多花一点儿，就能成了……”人们就是这么破产的----因为他们不肯停下来想想：“之前投入的就算没了呗，我承受得起，我还可以重新振作。我不需要为这件事情沉迷不误，这可能会毁了我的。”",[827,2501,2502],{},"网友：想请教您一下，当您意识到由于一时疏忽若干年都上错了车，蒙受巨大损失也错过了人生很多快乐时，您是以一个什么心态面对它？我个人的问题就是会一段时间变得很消沉，既耽误时间又更不快乐了，而且在这个过程中还很容易犯新的错误。我是觉得该平常心，但好像光靠这三个字很难做得到，所以特别想请教您，您是怎么想这个事情的？",[827,2504,2505,2507],{},[830,2506,895],{}," 财务上有个名词叫沉入成本，也有叫沉没成本的，如果你真懂了，你就能解答你的问题。我认为95%以上的人大多数情况下会想不开的（2013-12-28）",[827,2509,2510],{},"网友X：我看到老巴买可乐，用了七八年时间，除了首次股灾后买入，之后的买入也会选股价回调时吧？",[827,2512,2513,2515],{},[830,2514,857],{}," ：大资金买某个公司有时候需要比较长的时间，有时候是因为成交量，有时候是因为机会成本----当你有新增加的资金时，你会比较所有标的，当没有现金增加时你甚至可以比较手头持有的公司的差异。如果自己觉得任何两家差异显著时（比如用10年或更长的眼光看），为什么不换到更合适的公司呢？",[827,2517,2518],{},"我当年买网易就花了很久，而且在很长的时间里我都找不到对我而言比网易更好的公司。这几年的苹果也是。记得有次有人问到我能接受一家公司的仓位的最高比例时，我说我能接受50%，但我目前喜欢的两家公司正好都叫苹果。A股的茅台也是如此。（2014-07-27）",[827,2520,2521],{},"网友：找到了更好的投资标的，却没闲钱买。如果要换的话，需把已经持有两年的标的给换掉。请教大道：会不会像猴子掰玉米一样，掰一个丢一个。最终一个都没有？",[827,2523,2524,2526],{},[830,2525,895],{}," 你这个想法应该会的。（2015-11-22）",[827,2528,2529],{},"网友N：段总的意思应该是：你没真正弄懂这两个标的。如果真懂了，不会问这个问题的。",[827,2531,2532,2534],{},[830,2533,895],{}," 当一个人“投资”时老想着市场，早晚会出问题的。（2015-11-24）",[827,2536,2537],{},"网友：同时投了两个公司，什么情况下调仓好？",[827,2539,2540,2542],{},[830,2541,895],{}," 这是个机会成本问题，只有自己可以回答。当然，为调仓而调大概率会是错的。（2018-10-09）",[827,2544,2545,2547],{},[830,2546,857],{}," ：“另外上一篇我说的最小机会成本是无风险国债回报，后来想了想，觉得也有问题。实际的最小机会成本应该是通胀率。也就是说，如果手里的钱的回报率赶不上通胀率的话，实际上是在亏钱。”这一段改成下面的意思了：通胀率其实不是机会成本而应该是“基本回报率”，在投资时其实无法考虑通胀率，但可以比较利率。也就是说，最小机会成本还是无风险国债回报。",[827,2549,2550,2551,2553,2554,2556,2557,2559],{},"网友：我问了在",[830,2552,1134],{},"和泡泡玛特之间应该如何分析",[843,2555,115],{"href":2272},"，账号被拉黑了。我买了和",[830,2558,1134],{},"一样的仓位，还想继续定投。",[827,2561,2562,2563,2565],{},"大道：",[843,2564,115],{"href":2272},"指的是你自己的机会成本。不好意思，我确实会屏蔽掉我不想回答的问题的。很多东西我都说过了，重复说会有点烦。另外，有很多问题是应该问ai的。（2026-04-22）",[827,2567,2568],{},"网友：广大投资者对您的成功投资比较了解。但对您错过的一些机会，您以前曾在回复中简单说过比如苹果、腾讯等。您能否做个专题详细地说说您错失的一些大机会，这样可能从另外一个角度对大家有帮助。",[827,2570,2571,2573],{},[830,2572,895],{}," 我说我错过的意思是：这本是我能力圈子内可以搞懂的事，但由于各种原因，我没去搞懂他们，所以错过了。以后有机会也许会说几句。（2010-04-15）",[827,2575,2576],{},"网友：您能把您最失败的几笔投资介绍给大家吗？然后您从中学到了什么？",[827,2578,2579,2581],{},[830,2580,895],{}," 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