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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":504,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":26,"date":9,"description":506,"editor":2252,"extension":2253,"meta":2254,"navigation":2255,"order":507,"path":2256,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2257,"seoDescription":506,"seoTitle":2258,"slug":505,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":844,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2259,"sourceStatus":2260,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2261,"stem":2262,"summary":506,"tags":2263,"type":435,"updatedAt":2268,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":2269,"_collection":2270},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-07-cases.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2246},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,840,846,849,852,862,865,868,877,880,885,888,893,896,899,902,907,910,918,921,926,935,938,943,946,951,954,959,962,967,970,980,1001,1010,1016,1025,1036,1039,1048,1051,1057,1060,1063,1066,1076,1079,1085,1090,1093,1096,1105,1108,1116,1119,1124,1127,1132,1135,1138,1149,1152,1155,1158,1163,1169,1176,1182,1186,1195,1200,1203,1214,1220,1226,1231,1238,1241,1250,1258,1264,1267,1272,1275,1278,1281,1286,1292,1299,1302,1305,1308,1316,1319,1328,1331,1336,1339,1344,1347,1355,1361,1366,1369,1374,1377,1382,1385,1390,1393,1404,1412,1415,1423,1447,1459,1474,1486,1493,1499,1502,1507,1510,1513,1516,1522,1530,1533,1538,1544,1547,1552,1555,1560,1563,1568,1574,1579,1582,1587,1590,1593,1596,1601,1606,1615,1618,1626,1629,1634,1640,1646,1652,1658,1663,1668,1673,1679,1682,1690,1695,1698,1711,1714,1717,1726,1730,1733,1738,1741,1746,1753,1767,1776,1787,1793,1799,1808,1813,1819,1822,1828,1831,1843,1846,1849,1852,1855,1858,1861,1864,1867,1870,1873,1876,1879,1882,1885,1888,1891,1894,1896,1901,1903,1908,1913,1924,1930,1933,1938,1941,1944,1949,1952,1957,1963,1966,1969,1972,1977,1983,1986,1997,2000,2005,2008,2011,2014,2017,2029,2037,2057,2063,2078,2094,2097,2102,2105,2115,2118,2121,2127,2130,2133,2136,2139,2142,2147,2150,2153,2158,2161,2166,2169,2181,2189,2201,2210,2223,2226,2229,2232,2238,2241],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-折现率与机会成本","第一节 折现率与机会成本",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：请教段老师．您是怎么定义够便宜？，我迷茫中。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 够便宜是由你自己去定义的。比如，你把100块钱给我，我保证一年以后还你102，你觉得合算吗？你肯定会有几个方案可以考虑的，主要是取决于你是否还有其他同样保险并有更高回报的地方可以去。（2010-03-26）",[827,838,839],{},"网友：无风险国债利率假定为8%，如果我每年无风险收益稳定在6%，我就非常满足了，",[827,841,842,845],{},[833,843,844],{},"段永平"," ：无风险6%勉强可以接受，长期而言有点偏低。我觉得还是8%比较适中。",[827,847,848],{},"补充一下，这里的比率指的是实际回报而不是名义回报。如果有过俄罗斯几年贬值到几万分之一的经历的人就明白这是什么意思。（2011-07-20）",[827,850,851],{},"网友：有一个困惑请教您：一个公司的生意模式我喜欢（当然至少要懂了的意思），企业文化也很好，但是，我不能确定什么价位买入才算是好点的价钱。我也知道别人替代不了，需要自己去搞懂它什么价位买入才是好点的价钱，但是问题是，如何去搞懂，具体的方法和路径是什么。例如，站在10年以后看现在的价钱，如何看就知道它是不是好点的价钱？",[827,853,854,856,857,861],{},[833,855,835],{}," 举个例子吧：比如目前的苹果，市值扣掉",[858,859,79],"a",{"href":860},"\u002Fjingxianjin","后，大约8000亿左右，年利润500亿左右。如果你认为苹果未来20年以上的年利润只多不少，而你又没别的办法赚到6%以上的年利润，那你就可以买苹果了。但是，如果你认为乔布斯不在了，苹果很快就破产了，或者你就是简单的认为苹果开始走下坡路了，你当然不应该买苹果。",[827,863,864],{},"同时，你有大把机会长期赚到10%以上的年利润，你就应该把钱投到那里去，投苹果就不是一个对的决策。这也是为什么说投资投什么其实是基于机会成本的。（2019-04-07）",[827,866,867],{},"网友：请问—价值应该是现在的净值加上未来利润总和的折现。那这个折现率应如何来估算呢？",[827,869,870,872,873,876],{},[833,871,844],{}," ：",[833,874,875],{},"我的理解应该和长期利息相关。我对投资的理解就是比较无风险利息和企业利润回报，寻找较好且自己认为足够安全的"," 。（2010-03-23）",[827,878,879],{},"网友：你常用的折现率是多少？7%还是8%？现在的长期国偾利率不到5%，多少合理？",[827,881,882,884],{},[833,883,844],{}," ：从来没真的用过。如果用，我觉得6%也许合理。这里没啥道理，就是毛估估而已。（2010-04-07）",[827,886,887],{},"网友O：您是说5年期的定期存款利率吗？",[827,889,890,892],{},[833,891,844],{}," ：我了解是长期国债利率。（2010-05-05）",[827,894,895],{},"博文：《中国财政部在港发行的人民币债券认购踊跃（转）》（2010-12-01）",[827,897,898],{},"中银香港周二表示，中国财政部在中国香港发行的第二批人民币债券中，针对机构投资者的部分获得9倍超额认购，显示出国际市场对人民币计价资产的需求强劲。其中，3年期基准人民币债券票面利率定为1.0%。",[827,900,901],{},"网友T：不需要。折现率就是你的机会成本。如果你不投资公司，存长期国债是6%，就用6%。段总，是这个意思吧？当然如果你认为机会成本高的，用10%也可以。我见过最高用20%那就安全边际相当高了。",[827,903,904,906],{},[833,905,844],{}," ：取决于你自己。（2010-05-25）",[827,908,909],{},"网友S：同意art兄的分析。KO比长期国债爽多了，老巴连铁路都买，更不用说KO了。",[827,911,912,872,914,917],{},[833,913,844],{},[833,915,916],{},"比长期国债爽是投资的最基本定义"," 。（2010-10-21）",[827,919,920],{},"网友：朋友问我投资门面的问题，门面出租给麦当劳和屈臣氏，按照麦当劳和屈臣氏的销售额来提取租金，前五年的每年租金一般是占房款的比例多少才有投资价值？",[827,922,923,925],{},[833,924,844],{}," ：5-10%（2010-10-23）",[827,927,928,930,931,934],{},[833,929,844],{}," ：1%的3年期债券居然有人抢？这不和床底挖个洞埋起来差不多了吗？有点意思。看起来真有点钱没地方去的味道。",[833,932,933],{},"如果利率长期如此，好公司的长期pe是不可能在12-13倍或以下待得住的"," 。（2010-12-05）",[827,936,937],{},"网友：价值是持有的标准，低估是买入的标准，那么低估多少的时候是出手买入的好时机呢…？",[827,939,940,942],{},[833,941,835],{}," 想10年后，相对于你自己的机会成本。（2020-11-02）",[827,944,945],{},"网友O：为什么段总要联系到利息（5%）而得出价值20亿？",[827,947,948,950],{},[833,949,844],{}," ：就是相当于你存20亿在银行一样。",[827,952,953],{},"网友A：应该与折现率有关，假如是10%，理论值应该是1\u002F10%=10亿，如果折现率为5%，理论值应该是1\u002F5%=20亿。",[827,955,956,958],{},[833,957,844],{}," ：折现率就应该是长期利率吧。",[827,960,961],{},"网友B：段大哥的意思是值60亿？",[827,963,964,966],{},[833,965,835],{}," 我不知道利率是多少啊。",[827,968,969],{},"比如：如果我买200亿长期国债的收入有10个亿／年，我会花200亿去买个年利10亿的公司吗？国债是risk free（无风险）的，所以买公司就要打折。越觉得没谱的打折要越厉害，和我们平时的生意没区别。这大概就是巴菲特讲的margin of safety的来源吧。",[827,971,972,973,976,977,979],{},"网友：",[858,974,97],{"href":975},"\u002Fzhexian","率按无风险利率+通胀率计算可以不？两个都毛估估然后得出一个毛估估的",[858,978,97],{"href":975},"率。",[827,981,982,984,985,988,989,991,992,994,995,997,998,1000],{},[833,983,835],{}," 我觉得应该按自己的",[858,986,115],{"href":987},"\u002Fjihuichengben","算。大部分人的",[858,990,115],{"href":987},"其实就是银行利息或者是国债，生意人和投资人会不一样（赚的更多或者更少）。（2025-09-25）\n我总觉得每个人给出的“",[858,993,97],{"href":975},"率”应该是每个人自己的（长期）最大",[858,996,115],{"href":987},"。对很多不懂投资的人们而言，最合适的",[858,999,115],{"href":987},"应该是无风险利率。（2025-10-05）",[827,1002,1003,1004,1006,1007,1009],{},"其实我从来没真的用“",[858,1005,97],{"href":975},"率”来决定过任何投资项目，我只是说一个思维方式而已。另外，我可以举一个“",[858,1008,115],{"href":987},"”的例子：大概十年前，有个公司的股东问我可不可以借点钱给他。我说可以，但前提是用公司的股票做抵押。然后他问多少利息，我说至少年息12%吧。他问为什么那么高？",[827,1011,1012,1013,1015],{},"我说你要嫌高就问银行借哈。作为股东，你知道我过去的投资平均年复合回报率是高于12%的。他说，好吧，我再想别的办法吧。我的原则是不借钱给朋友的，如果非要借，那一定要有合适的抵押品，而且利息一定要合理——这个合理的利息就是我的",[858,1014,115],{"href":987},"。所以，这么多年了也没人问我借过钱。（2025-10-13）",[827,1017,1018,1019,1021,1022,1024],{},"网友：企业价值（估算）和自己的",[858,1020,115],{"href":987},"应该没有关系？",[858,1023,97],{"href":975},"率考虑“无风险利率+通胀率+风险折价”三个因素，无论什么样的企业或多或少都有一些风险，这三个东西都不是目前的，至少考虑未来10年，必须保守，最后就是经验值，大差不差。",[827,1026,1027,1029,1030,1032,1033,1035],{},[833,1028,835],{}," 企业价值本身确实和每个人的",[858,1031,115],{"href":987},"没有直接关系，但是不是决定投某家公司是和自己的",[858,1034,115],{"href":987},"直接相关的。其实理论上每个人都应该去投对自己回报最高的投资（长期而言），但事实上很多人根本就不知道自己在干什么。",[827,1037,1038],{},"网友：您认为巴老收购的“柏林顿北方铁路”公司吸引力在哪？在投资A股或港股时，如何应对汇率变化带来的风险？",[827,1040,1041,1043,1044,1047],{},[833,1042,844],{}," ：我认为Buffett花钱买BNI好过把钱放在长期国债上。BNI有很好的",[858,1045,88],{"href":1046},"\u002Fxianjinliu","及一定的成长和大片的地产，长期而言年回报应该能超过8%。",[827,1049,1050],{},"我从来不考虑汇率风险。如果我认为我的投资可能连汇率风险都cover不了的话，我会选择不投。（2010-03-08）",[827,1052,1053,1054,1056],{},"网友：请问大家未来",[858,1055,88],{"href":1046},"折现，折现率教科书上说是国债收益率。",[827,1058,1059],{},"假设现在银行存款利率是很低，那现在折现率是否相对较低，6%左右。",[827,1061,1062],{},"假设未来银行存款利率是很高，比方像中国过去有一段时间银行存款利息达到10%。那折现率是否就要取很高了。",[827,1064,1065],{},"那同一家公司它在利率不同的地方内在价值是不同的？那它的价值是否是相对的？",[827,1067,1068,872,1070],{},[833,1069,844],{},[833,1071,1072,1073,1075],{},"我个人认为未来",[858,1074,88],{"href":1046},"折现率应该就是折现期（比如20年或30年）的平均最高无风险利率，通常情况下就是国债收益率。",[827,1077,1078],{},"如果货币可以完全自由流通并且没有汇率风险的情况下，不应该有企业内在价值在不同的地方不一样的情况，反过来说就是在不同币种下看到同一企业不同价值的原因是因为货币不能自由流通以及汇率风险造成的。比如A股和B股的差异就是这两个原因造成的。（2010-10-26）",[827,1080,1081,1082,1084],{},"网友X：好像比巴老的自由",[858,1083,88],{"href":1046},"折现法简单，你的计算方法里没折现吧？道理我大概明白，但还未能理解透您这条公式，这个“x”是指公司的净利润还是公司的价格？此例的计算是：10亿\u002F3.86%*0.6=166亿，（长期国债：3.86%），这样正确吗？请指正。",[827,1086,1087,1089],{},[833,1088,844],{}," ：长期利率会变得，我一般就固定用5%。（2010-04-23）",[827,1091,1092],{},"网友：请教两个问题，有博友说买股票就是买增长，另一位博友说价值投资和增长没什么关系，你回复说是啊，没有必然关系，我理解你可能的意思是如果一家公司被严重低估，即使没有利润增长，因为要价值回归，同样有投资价值。",[827,1094,1095],{},"但我还是想问一下，以茅台为例，他的毛利率很高，确定性很强，如果我们假定未来10年，他的利润不再增长，保持现在的水平，而且假定他目前的股价合理，那现在的茅台有投资价值吗？第二个问题是，在巴菲特致股东的信中，多次声明他想要收购企业的标准第二条，显示出有持续稳定的盈利能力。我想问一下，巴菲特指的盈利能力是指持续稳定的利润增长能力还是指利润不增长，只保持稳定的利润。",[827,1097,1098,1104],{},[833,1099,1100,1101,1103],{},"段永平：在你能看懂“确定性”的前提下，用未来",[858,1102,88],{"href":1046},"的折现对比你手里现金能去的地方的回报，你就会自己找到答案的。"," （2010-10-10）",[827,1106,1107],{},"网友：能帮忙解释一下老巴说的“利率就像是投资上的地心引力一样。”这句话吗？一直没有想明白哦。",[827,1109,1110,1112,1113,1115],{},[833,1111,844],{}," ：你如果明白“未来",[858,1114,88],{"href":1046},"的折现”就明白投资和利率的关系了。假设你有1w块，现在银行利息20%\u002F年，你还想买啥股票？（2011-07-19）",[827,1117,1118],{},"网友：段大哥，按你上面算法得出的内在价值还要打5折你才考虑是否投资，对吗？",[827,1120,1121,1123],{},[833,1122,844],{}," ：可打可不打，取决于折现率高低。（2010-05-27）",[827,1125,1126],{},"网友：段老师我知道您是假设折现率，但是怎么样才能把折现率估计的准一些呢？不同的折现率计算出来会差很多的。",[827,1128,1129,1131],{},[833,1130,844],{}," ：我认为应该是长期平均利率。因为人们是拿着钱去比较放在哪里最合适。（2010-05-27）",[827,1133,1134],{},"网友C：你的问题出在，代数没有算好，只按算术的思维。DCF折现率中是两项：无风险利率和风险系数。",[827,1136,1137],{},"1000年的计算中，风险系数远大于利率，一般而言，如果折现率低于7%，这本身就不理性（假设了无风险）。另1000年的人类历史里，从来没有过7%以上价值上升达1000年的东西，可以相信将来的1000年，也没有这样的东西。",[827,1139,1140,1142,1143,1145,1146,1148],{},[833,1141,835],{}," 其实这个例子说的很清楚。未来的",[858,1144,88],{"href":1046},"折现，这个例子把所有未来的可能",[858,1147,88],{"href":1046},"都算了，这就是为什么我说2020年要卖掉的原因（卖掉是一次性把现金全部拿回来的办法），不然就要一直算下去。（2010-05-28）",[827,1150,1151],{},"网友：林奇说长债收益率比标普股息率高出6个点就该卖股买债。现在20年国债5.4%，把回购算进去，股息＋净回购的股东收益率大概2.5%，利差3个点左右，按林奇的尺子还在安全区。不过无风险5.4%这个机会成本摆在这，股票的门槛高了很多。",[827,1153,1154],{},"大道：其实只跟未来现金流有关。（2026-08-18）",[827,1156,1157],{},"网友：老巴说买好公司，价格合适。价格合适是多少？市盈率是多少合适？还是有什么模糊的标准？谢谢。",[827,1159,1160],{},[833,1161,1162],{},"段永平：价格合适主要指的是你自己的机会成本（也可以扩展到社会的机会成本）。比如你喜欢一个公司，你觉得未来20年的回报能有8%\u002F年，但同时你又是一个很会赚钱的人，平时总能赚到10%\u002F年，那你当然就可以考虑等等，看看有没有更好的机会。如果你只是把钱放在银行吃1%\u002F年利息的话，年回报8%就很好了，千万别听隔壁小马赚了很多钱的那些故事，哪怕那故事是真的。",[827,1164,1165,1168],{},[833,1166,1167],{},"举个极端的例子：有个公司你觉得回报能有10%\u002F年，但银行利息是15%，你该怎么办？（实际情况往往是股价会掉的很厉害。）"," （2019-05-17）",[827,1170,1171,1172,1175],{},"网友：您曾说过",[833,1173,1174],{},"苹果","扣除现金后8000亿，未来10年起码能赚500亿而且大概率比500亿更多。想请教这个“合适的价格”是相对谁而言的？",[827,1177,1178,1179,1181],{},"大道：不取决于你的预期收益率，取决于你的",[858,1180,115],{"href":987},"。你要知道你能赚10%你在这里说啥？你要是存银行只能赚不到2%，那你在等啥？（2026-06-24）",[822,1183,1185],{"id":1184},"第二节-peev与财务指标的边界","第二节 PE、EV与财务指标的边界",[827,1187,1188,1189,1191,1192,1194],{},"网友：近日看价值投资的书，有个问题搞不清楚。书中说到了几个指标，净利润，",[858,1190,88],{"href":1046},"和自由",[858,1193,88],{"href":1046},"。想请教一下段大哥，哪个指标是我们应该重点关注的？",[827,1196,1197],{},[833,1198,1199],{},"段永平：如果你拥有一家公司的话，你就知道什么你应该重点关注了。如果你没有拥有一家公司的感觉，怎么说也都是没用的。",[827,1201,1202],{},"网友：关于“估值”，自己一直比较迷茫。好一点的公司，市盈率都太高了，A股这种估值水平能持续么。在A股投资，只能挖掘高成长的，以抵消高估值？估值合理很少啊，低估的更不用说了，也更理解了为什么价值投资者喜欢熊市。段总如何面对估值难题的呢？",[827,1204,1205,872,1207,1213],{},[833,1206,844],{},[833,1208,1209,1210,1212],{},"对看得懂的公司估值其实不算太难。不过，很多人对估值的理解会停留在估价格上，而价值投资最本质的东西是去评估公司未来",[858,1211,88],{"href":1046},"（的折现）"," 。",[827,1215,1216,1217,1219],{},"我倒是觉得A股在相当上的时间里平均pe会比美股高，主要的原因是国内的资金是不能自由流通的，投资渠道又不是很充分，只要银行利息足够低的话，pe很难在低位上持久。这个也是从未来",[858,1218,88],{"href":1046},"折现的角度来看的。（2011-01-06）",[827,1221,1222,1223,1225],{},"网友K：没看懂，然后盯着这段想了15分钟，还是没懂。“主要的原因是国内的资金是不能自由流通的，投资渠道又不是很充分，只要银行利息足够低的话，pe很难在低位上持久。这个也是从未来",[858,1224,88],{"href":1046},"折现的角度来看的。不知道段大哥会不会解释？",[827,1227,1228,1230],{},[833,1229,844],{}," ：如果你手里有很多钱（人民币）没地方去，你周围的人手里也有很多钱没地方去的时候，你就会容易明白些。这里说的自由流通指的是世界范围内的自由流通。（2011-01-06）",[827,1232,1233,1234,1237],{},"网友：今天看到一个人讲：他讲到无论多好，超过20倍的市盈率不买。因为假设一个稳定成长的公司每年保持40%的增长（当然很难的），你才能用20倍的市盈率你买它。而原因是老巴说的50%的",[858,1235,101],{"href":1236},"\u002Fanquanbianji","。同理，假如每年保持20%的增长，那么有10倍市盈率是去买。",[827,1239,1240],{},"我知道如果假设成立，买就是对的。但是我想不明白他的逻辑：怎么从50%的安全边际推导出以20倍的市盈率买需要每年增长40%增长的数学逻辑？我很想明白它的数学逻辑。求教！",[827,1242,1243,1249],{},[833,1244,1245,1246,1248],{},"段永平：我不太关心别人的“数学逻辑”。我的“数学逻辑”就一条：未来",[858,1247,88],{"href":1046},"的折现"," 。（2011-06-01）",[827,1251,1252,1254,1255,1257],{},[833,1253,835],{}," 公司的价值取决于其未来的净",[858,1256,88],{"href":1046},"（的折现）。账上的现金在“未来”不一定还在，所以不能简单用现金来衡量，除非马上清算。（2011-12-28）",[827,1259,1260,1261,1263],{},"网友：投资我希望自己做到“好公司好价格好耐心”，我想问个关于价格的问题。拿茅台和格力举例，两个都是好公司，有护城河，每年大把",[858,1262,88],{"href":1046},"。茅台今天接近30倍的PE，格力是10倍PE。那么从效率上来讲是不是格力更有机会发生利润翻倍和估值翻倍的戴维斯双击（茅台估值翻倍就要60倍PE了）。但空调卖不掉就折旧，茅台卖不掉却会成为老酒。",[827,1265,1266],{},"所以我面对这样的选择有点无所适从。我想知道在今天这样的PE下，您会怎么选择？",[827,1268,1269,1271],{},[833,1270,844],{}," ：从10年或20年后往回看会更容易有结论。（2019-03-16）",[827,1273,1274],{},"网友Y：以买下一单生意的想法去买股票，可以从整个公司余下生命周期所能创造的价值、所能产生的盈利来衡量现价购买值不值，相比于只盯着近年的市盈率、利润总额、利润增长幅度等指标的思维模式，来得更全面、更准确。这是我读后第一点体会。以后读指标可能没那么机械理解了，会有一个清晰的目标和教全面的视野，尽管很多东西是无法看清楚的，但是，起码减少了读指标的盲目性和机械性。",[827,1276,1277],{},"感觉到文章其实涉及到价值投资的好几个方面，虽然有些只是三言两语提及。下来自己再慢慢学习和体会。自己还没入门，接下来还要好好学习。",[827,1279,1280],{},"第二个感悟是，价值投资并没有固定的模式和规定的做法，每个人都可以用自己独有的方式做价值投资。",[827,1282,1283,1285],{},[833,1284,844],{}," ：其实我的理解也就是如此。我当年从巴菲特那儿学到的东西就是这些，而且我觉得就够了。剩下的必须自己去学，比如怎么了解一个企业等等，好像没有一个一句话能教会的办法。（2010-04-02）",[827,1287,1288,1291],{},[833,1289,1290],{},"right business + right people + right price + time = good result。虽然这个不是投资的充分公式，但好结果却是个比较大概率的事件。"," （2013-04-20）",[827,1293,1294,1295,1298],{},"中国目前的股票的PE太高，我看媒体上说平均50-60倍。美国股市的平均PE像SMP这么多年的平均PE只有15倍左右。大家可以想象，如果从60倍回到15倍，那是什么概念？所以我说完你不要出汗，这是其一；其二，中国股市到目前为止，你比方它可能有其他的因素，比方说投资",[858,1296,161],{"href":1297},"\u002Fqudao","不畅，比方说银行存款利息过低，比方说债券利息也过低，对吧？",[827,1300,1301],{},"那么从这个角度PE它高一点，因为人民币本身还不流通吗？所以我觉得也正常，但是这个高到底该高多少，它是取决于资金的效率。如果我的钱能够在别的地方拿到20倍PE的回报，他长期待在60倍一定是不合理的，因为有人就会把所谓60倍PE的股票卖掉，去投资到20倍PE的生意里头。如果有15倍的PE，它会把20倍PE的生意拿到15倍的PE里头去，这样他不就多赚了25%了吗？",[827,1303,1304],{},"所以只要市场足够长期，它一定会回归事物的本源。（2007-05-23）",[827,1306,1307],{},"网友：按市盈率来说09年GAME有0.8的EPS GA差不多0.58，盛大PE不到10倍，不过对于一个90%利润来源的产业，怎么进行价值评估，我还是看不懂。不过就数字来说，应该还不错吧。",[827,1309,1310,1312,1313,1315],{},[833,1311,844],{}," ：不能简单的单纯看数字，除非账面",[858,1314,79],{"href":860},"多过股价了。pe=10意味着要10年才能赚回股价，如果你想买的话，你必须认为10年内的平均年利润要达到或超过现在的年利润。在我眼里看来，盛大游戏好像有点强弩之末的感觉。（2010-03-10）",[827,1317,1318],{},"网友：段总好，能不能解释一下enterprise value和e\u002Fe？",[827,1320,1321,1323,1324,1327],{},[833,1322,844],{}," ：企业价值（市值＋",[858,1325,64],{"href":1326},"\u002Ffuzhai","-现金）（2010-06-07）",[827,1329,1330],{},"网友：你买股票会参考市盈率吗？还是主要算一下整个公司值多少钱？",[827,1332,1333,1335],{},[833,1334,844],{}," ：PE是公司的历史数据，有参考意义，但要了解整个公司靠pe是不够的。（2010-03-14）",[827,1337,1338],{},"网友：中国股市的PE怎么都是这么高？新股发行都是五六十倍的PE。看了巴菲特买的股票PE一般都在15以下。",[827,1340,1341,1343],{},[833,1342,844],{}," ：我不买新股的。五六十倍的pe的新股可真是需要勇气啊。很多人说打新股一定赚钱，呵呵，这个我真不懂啊。（2010-03-16）",[827,1345,1346],{},"网友S：段总一直强调PE是历史数据，只说了上半句，能否再深入解释一下，PE是估值时用的最重要的指标之一，段总轻描淡写的，不是太明白。",[827,1348,1349,872,1351,1354],{},[833,1350,844],{},[833,1352,1353],{},"PE是历史数据的意思是你不能单靠PE去推测公司未来的收益，不然会中招的"," 。举个例子，GM（通用汽车）的PE一直都很低（以前老在5倍左右），但债务很高，结果破产了。（2010-04-04）",[827,1356,1357,1358,1360],{},"网友：关于估值：有一高速板块公司，总资产40亿，基本没有",[858,1359,64],{"href":1326},"，每年稳定净利润3亿左右，近五年保持现金10-15亿，现市值60亿，请教：1、大致如何估值？2、如考虑若干年内车流增加，大致估值？",[827,1362,1363,1365],{},[833,1364,844],{}," ：现在pe是20倍，就是20年回本。如果利润到6亿就是10年回本。能做到10年回本就还可以了，如果你相信10年内不会有其他变化的话，当然同时还要看你自己是否有更好的目标。（2010-04-18）",[827,1367,1368],{},"网友：有个问题想请教段总和各位网友，刚发现高盛每股收益21.77，pe只有7倍，pb只有1倍多，犯不着这么便宜吧，这算不算严重低估。比起现在A股的银行股还有吸引力。",[827,1370,1371,1373],{},[833,1372,844],{}," ：pe是历史数据。如果你能认为高盛未来的盈利能力不会下降的话，这个价钱就很有吸引力了。只有真正懂他们公司的人才可以有结论，不过还没空了解高盛呢。（2010-04-22）",[827,1375,1376],{},"网友：低市盈率投资是价值投资的一种派别，可以说买卖任何股票都要考虑市盈率，它是一个重要的参考指标。但这种形式相对来说比较低级。价值投资的高级形式就是对公司进行估值，用4角钱价格买1元钱的价值。极少数一些公司的资产不是显而易见的，需要你对公司真正了解，才能很好的做出正确的价值评估。",[827,1378,1379,1381],{},[833,1380,835],{}," 个人认为投资没有形式上的高低，只有懂的程度的差异。如果我能预见到一个公司有高成长，我当然愿意投。我从来都很愿意投高成长的公司--如果我能确认他会是高成长的。（2010-04-27）",[827,1383,1384],{},"网友：不太了解PE，但是PE里价值投资者应该占主流吧？这里可没有技术分析可用了。",[827,1386,1387,1389],{},[833,1388,844],{}," ：有些pe也看市场喜欢什么概念。当然，pe一定比短线trader要长线的多，大多数都应该是价值投资者。（2010-05-15）",[827,1391,1392],{},"网友：你对所投资的公司股票市盈率看重吗？",[827,1394,1395,872,1397,1403],{},[833,1396,844],{},[833,1398,1399,1400,1402],{},"看但不看重。pe是历史数据，我们买的是未来的",[858,1401,88],{"href":1046},"。所以除非你能从历史中看到未来，否则没意义。相对于pe，我会更多用e\u002Fe来衡量一个企业。"," （2010-06-01）",[827,1405,1406,872,1408,1411],{},[833,1407,844],{},[833,1409,1410],{},"相对于pe，我会更多用e\u002Fe来衡量一个企业。这里有一个e是enterprise value"," 。（2010-06-07）",[827,1413,1414],{},"网友D：enterprise value是企业价值，e\u002Fe=收益／企业价值，是投资回报率对吗？",[827,1416,1417,1419,1420,1422],{},[833,1418,844],{}," ：是相对于p\u002Fe的一个概念，能反映",[858,1421,64],{"href":1326},"。（2010-06-07）",[827,1424,1425,1426,1428,1429,1431,1432,1434,1435,1437,1438,1440,1441,1443,1444,1446],{},"网友T：段大哥，你提出来的e\u002Fe法则我大概能明白了，就是在PE的基础上加回来",[858,1427,64],{"href":1326},"部分的PE，减去现金部分的PE，呵呵，实在是高，这样",[858,1430,64],{"href":1326},"的企业就大概有个算法了，只是你这里的",[858,1433,64],{"href":1326},"是用长期",[858,1436,64],{"href":1326},"还是短期",[858,1439,64],{"href":1326},"，有些企业的长期",[858,1442,64],{"href":1326},"几乎没有，但没有给供应商钱，或者工资什么的这些短期",[858,1445,64],{"href":1326},"也要算进去吗？",[827,1448,1449,1451,1452,1458],{},[833,1450,844],{}," ：细节没太大区别。",[833,1453,1454,1455,1457],{},"用enterprise value最大的好处是让投资者注意",[858,1456,64],{"href":1326},"的影响，不然只看pe的人就很容易以为通用汽车的股票很便宜。通用汽车公司破产以前的pe非常低，但e\u002Fe非常高。"," （2010-06-09）",[827,1460,1461,1462,1464,1465,1467,1468,1470,1471,1473],{},"网友：段大哥有个问题请教您，你的e\u002Fe法则里面的",[858,1463,64],{"href":1326},"是短期",[858,1466,64],{"href":1326},"还是长期",[858,1469,64],{"href":1326},"，还是总",[858,1472,64],{"href":1326},"呢？",[827,1475,1476,1477,1479,1480,1482,1483,1485],{},"有些企业长期",[858,1478,64],{"href":1326},"很少，短期的如1年内要支付的员工工资，或者给供应商的货款这些短期",[858,1481,64],{"href":1326},"很大，因此不知道算哪一部分，还是只算银行贷款这一种",[858,1484,64],{"href":1326},"。",[827,1487,1488,872,1490],{},[833,1489,844],{},[833,1491,1492],{},"enterprise value的本意是如果你要买下这个公司真正要花的钱。",[827,1494,1495,1498],{},[833,1496,1497],{},"enterprise value实际上和股价有关。就是你按市价买下一个公司时实际上你还要另外付钱买下公司的债务（如果是现金的话实际上你会少付钱）。"," 比如：yahoo现在的market capital是20.91B而enterprise value是17.67B（现在yahoo finance上的数据）。（2010-06-11）",[827,1500,1501],{},"网友：请问段总。在您的投资生涯中您用过15倍PB买过一只股票么？",[827,1503,1504,1506],{},[833,1505,835],{}," 不知道。从来不看这个指标。（2010-10-25）",[827,1508,1509],{},"网友：关于估值这个问题，我想了很多，我个人觉得企业所处阶段对于企业的估值影响很大，比如高成长型估值水平和稳定成长的就不一样。",[827,1511,1512],{},"我特别观察老巴的一些估值，如下：1，see's糖果，老巴用2500w买的，当时see's挣200w一年。老巴当时只想花2000w，还差点因为500w差价没有成交。我想老巴给see's的估值时12pe（2500\u002F200），他可能想要一些安全边际，所以想砍掉500w。2，中国石油，当时中油大概挣80亿美元（600多亿rmb）？",[827,1514,1515],{},"老巴给他的估值是1000亿，也就是大概12pe，当时中油市值才300多亿美元。我猜想这里的安全边际有2方面，1是老巴估值和市值的差价，也就是700亿，2是老巴看到美元将会贬值，这无形中提供一个安全边际。",[827,1517,1518,1519,1521],{},"关于成熟的，稳定成长的公司，我感觉得12pe是一个很值得思考的参照线。关于高成长的公司，其",[858,1520,88],{"href":1046},"还不稳定，我感觉老巴很少做这方面投资（BYD是例外）？我觉得估值这样的公司挺难的，我尽量让自己诚实一些，不乱估，不乱投。想听听你的看法，",[827,1523,1524,872,1526,1529],{},[833,1525,844],{},[833,1527,1528],{},"多少倍pe和平均长期利息有关，12倍长期pe应该可以了，我一般大概也用这个数左右。"," （2011-01-05）",[827,1531,1532],{},"网友：段总，为什么人们总喜欢买贵不买平？PB15倍，PE50倍还在抢买，好东西也应问问价值呀！就算不出事也透支了公司未来十几年的盈利。",[827,1534,1535,1537],{},[833,1536,844],{}," ：“人们”这样你是高兴啊还是不高兴啊？",[827,1539,1540,1541,1543],{},"pe是个历史数据，能说明一点问题但不是全部。对高成长的企业来说，pe高些是可以接受的，只要你能确定他的高成长就行。如果你明白未来",[858,1542,88],{"href":1046},"折现的概念的话，就不会有这个问题。（2011-04-05）",[827,1545,1546],{},"网友：现在美国股市有不少市盈率极低（1-3倍）的股票，其中有很多是中国概念股，现金或短期投资比股价还多，您是怎么看的？值得投资吗？",[827,1548,1549,1551],{},[833,1550,844],{}," ：一般来讲，pe很低的公司很可能是有问题的公司，除非你了解，否则最好别碰。（2011-06-17）",[827,1553,1554],{},"网友：请教大道兄一个持股策略的问题：有公司A，现金充沛，无债务，业务优秀且有高成长之状态，PE为5时本人入手，现价格初步涨升，目前市盈率已到8以上，但明显是要继续持仓的状态．此时，有公司B，现金好，无债务，业务同样优秀且高成长，市场价突然走低，PE已到达4以内．两公司皆是我可看得懂的公司，可是我只有一份银两，请教此时我该继续持仓A，还是从A换仓到B呢？",[827,1556,1557,1559],{},[833,1558,835],{}," 这种问题其实只有你自己能搞懂。假如现在已经是10年后，你回想起10年前做的这个决定时，你的想法如何？（2013-02-21）",[827,1561,1562],{},"网友：要弄懂一家公司真的很难，想投资时还要考虑估值，请教段总：即使是好公司，一般市盈率超过多少倍不应该买入呢？",[827,1564,1565,1567],{},[833,1566,835],{}," 有这种想法就说明你还不懂公司。比如网易当年还在亏钱的时候...。（2013-03-26）",[827,1569,1570,1571,1573],{},"网友：一直不明白为什么有的公司能给30、15倍的pe，但这有的公司5倍的pe都贵，是根据生意模式和未来",[858,1572,88],{"href":1046},"来做判断吗？",[827,1575,1576,1578],{},[833,1577,835],{}," 如果你明白pe到底是啥意思就能明白这个问题，如果不能明白就最好离股市远远的。（2013-09-01）",[827,1580,1581],{},"网友：在交易所网站看了一下上证指数市盈率21倍，深市主板市盈率34倍，创业板92，中小企业板60.29，觉得看懂自己能懂的公司贵还是不贵比较容易些。",[827,1583,1584,1586],{},[833,1585,844],{}," ：该说的都说过了，你要么再看看历史，看看每次那些非常激动的人们的结局？（2015-04-20）",[827,1588,1589],{},"网友：想请教您一个问题，背景如下：",[827,1591,1592],{},"我在香港买了一个追踪沪指A50的ETF（不算投资，就算理财吧，虽然看了一下主要权重银行股的市净市盈率感觉值得拥有），这个ETF的价格对比资产净值有17%的折价，费率比较高，每年1.39%。",[827,1594,1595],{},"另一个A50的ETF费率1.15%、相对资产净值折价6%。对比起来，我感觉费率高、折价狠的那个是划算的。巴菲特对“散户”的建议是把钱投到一个管理费低的指数基金里，您觉得这个选择题里我有没有做错？",[827,1597,1598,1600],{},[833,1599,835],{}," 第一，你用30年后的结果算一下？第二，有折价未必就是便宜。老巴的建议是有非常重要的潜台词的：首先他说的应该是他知道的指数-我猜他指的是美股的某些指数，更重要的是，他推荐指数的原因是因为指数的费率非常低。你说的这些指数的费率都超过1%了，那应该是非常高的费率了吧？你也许该看看S&P500的指数基金的收费。（2015-09-08）",[827,1602,1603,1605],{},[833,1604,835],{}," 市盈率是倒后镜，不能作为能不能投的标准。关键是未来的盈利能力，看不懂的再低也别碰。（2019-09-16）",[827,1607,1608,1611,1612],{},[833,1609,1610],{},"段永平：成长率对我来说没有任何意义"," 。投资的定义在我来讲就是拥有一家公司的部分或者全部，最简单的概念就是“拥有”。",[833,1613,1614],{},"假设某家公司去年每股赚一块，今年赚两块钱，成长率百分之百，有人说明年可能还会再涨。后年呢？后年不知道。你如果是你自己的钱，把这家公司买下来，你会买吗？",[827,1616,1617],{},"网友：請教你一下，你看得懂PLTR這隻股票嗎？我真搞不懂為什麼市場給它500倍PE?",[827,1619,1620,1622,1623,1625],{},[833,1621,835],{}," 这家公司有点意思，值得关注，但我认真看了一下还是看不太懂。我觉得目前太贵了，至少",[858,1624,115],{"href":987},"很高，我不建议碰。现阶段蚂蚁熊兵很厉害，小心点比较好。",[827,1627,1628],{},"网友：请问段总：如果你决定做一个实体投资时，会不会说预期要多少年回本，能真金白银收回投出去的钱才会觉得这个生意值得去做？投资雅虎这个案例符合这个原则吗？现在雅虎股价是16.5元，那么到30元的时候，是不是会卖出？又或者到时再作一次评价？因为可能到那时雅虎的每股收益可能不会是0.8，到时你仍会给它12倍PE吗？如果那时每股收益为1，你会再给它多少倍PE？",[827,1630,1631,1633],{},[833,1632,835],{}," 如果到12倍，我肯定会再评估的。其实，在到的过程中会一直跟踪，也算是评估吧。我给12倍pe只是为了好说明一点而已。我其实不知道该给多少pe。（2010-04-07）",[827,1635,1636,1637,1639],{},"网友：请教学长一个关于EBITDA的问题。我们自己公司最近要融资，投行建议我们使用的估值依据是EV\u002FEBITDA倍数。EV（Enterprise Value）好理解，就是市值加",[858,1638,64],{"href":1326},"减现金。这个您在研究雅虎的时候就是这么考虑的。",[827,1641,1642,1643,1645],{},"但是EBITDA和EV的倍数关系有什么逻辑我就想不明白了。芒格很干脆说过EBITDA就是狗屎。我自己感觉跟EV做除法的应该是",[858,1644,88],{"href":1046},"。税、利息、摊销、折旧扣掉以后的东西那么理论化，参考价值到底在哪儿呢？",[827,1647,1648,1651],{},[833,1649,1650],{},"段永平：芒格都说ebitda是狗屎咯，狗屎的参考价值是什么？"," （2015-12-02）",[827,1653,1654,1657],{},[833,1655,1656],{},"巴菲特："," “如果我们把世界上所有谈论EBITDA的人和世界上所有没有谈论EBITDA的人放在一起，第一组人中会有更多的欺诈，并且从百分比上看，两组人会有非常大的差距。我是说，问题还只是刚刚开始。”(2024-02-08)",[827,1659,1660,1662],{},[833,1661,835],{}," 很赚钱的公司是没道理用的，除非他们用错了会计师(事务所)。(2024-02-09)",[827,1664,1665,1667],{},[833,1666,835],{}," 千万不要被P\u002FE(Price-to-Earnings Ratio，市盈率)误导，因为P\u002FE是个历史数据，未必能说明未来。",[827,1669,1670],{},[833,1671,1672],{},"我说P\u002FE 一般指的是相对于未来长期实际利润的P\u002FE，不是一般财报上的那个 P\u002FE。",[827,1674,1675,1676,1678],{},"你愿意给多少P\u002FE完全取决于你自己的能力或者说你自己的资金的",[858,1677,115],{"href":987},"，其实和市场无关。(2011-10-01)",[827,1680,1681],{},"网友：假若买的公司PE是10，那即使退市，每年有10%的利润（没有计算公司的增长）。利润拿来分红也好，投资也好，比国债也高多了。这样分析对不对？",[827,1683,1684,872,1686,1689],{},[833,1685,844],{},[833,1687,1688],{},"问题是PE是历史数据。你如果相信他未来一定有10%就可以。巴菲特买的高盛以及GE的可转换债券就是10%加option，非常好的deal。"," （2010-03-31）",[827,1691,1692,1694],{},[833,1693,835],{}," 多少倍P\u002FE和平均长期利息有关，12倍长期P\u002FE应该可以了，我一般也用这个数左右。(2011-01-05)",[827,1696,1697],{},"网友：投资方面的认知，史当时确实要弱一些。记得他说过一句让我印象很深的话：“15倍以上市盈率的，我不买。”",[827,1699,1700,1702,1703,1706,1707,1710],{},[833,1701,835],{}," 我买",[833,1704,1705],{},"茅台","的时候好像市盈率也不高吧？我不太记得，只是关注",[858,1708,70],{"href":1709},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","了。市盈率太高不买多数情况下是对的，我也不喜欢买市盈率高的公司，除非看到未来了。(2023-03-15)",[827,1712,1713],{},"网友：请教段老师，股市中有所谓价值型股票和增长型股票，我理解的价值型就是年增长率一般低于10%，市盈率10—15倍，每年有大约相当于银行年定期存款利率的股息率的股票。增长型的股票年平均增长率一般大于20%，市盈率大于25倍，分红很少的股票。增长型股票该如何进行估值？用所谓的PEG合适吗？我发现在牛市中用PEG对增长型股票进行估值，往往很容易制造泡沫。",[827,1715,1716],{},"在段老师的投资经历中是价值型股票买的多还是增长型股票买得多。",[827,1718,1719,1721,1722,1725],{},[833,1720,844],{}," ：我的理解和你差不多，觉得华尔街的定义大概是这个意思。",[833,1723,1724],{},"我投资的时候不太用这些指标，严格讲我其实根本就不会用这些指标"," 。所以我投的公司我也说不清是属于哪一类的。",[822,1727,1729],{"id":1728},"第三节-估值案例万科ge茅台与dcf实算","第三节 估值案例：万科、GE、茅台与DCF实算",[827,1731,1732],{},"网友：你买万科时是怎样估值的？万科04年每股收益0.39元，你05年买时的股价应是5块左右吧！13倍的PE不是十分便宜吧！你是否把成长算进去了？",[827,1734,1735,1737],{},[833,1736,835],{}," 我买万科时万科的市值大约在150亿左右，具体时间不记得了（大概在股改前半年到一年的时候？）当时就觉得万科一年赚个几十个亿早晚能做到，不到200亿确实便宜。同时觉得我看到的万科的账肯定不会是假账，因为王石不是作假账的人。当时买的理由都在这儿了。那个价钱我还需要算吗？（2010-04-06）",[827,1739,1740],{},"不明真相的群众：象$人人（RENN）$这样的公司，股价的主要构成就是它的现金，应该如何给它估值？",[827,1742,1743,1745],{},[833,1744,835],{}," 这个很有趣。大概原因是人们会以为股票的市值总是可以值那么多的，但实际上往往不是，就像昨天SVU突然掉了一半一样。",[827,1747,1748,1749,1752],{},"网友：你当初买",[833,1750,1751],{},"万科","时是怎样估值的？",[827,1754,1755,1757,1758,1760,1761,1763,1764,1766],{},[833,1756,835],{}," 我的所谓估值都是毛估估的。我买",[833,1759,1751],{},"时",[833,1762,1751],{},"市值才100多个亿，我认为无论如何也不止，所以就随便给了个500亿。呵呵，当时唯一确定的就是100多个亿有点太便宜了，如果有人把",[833,1765,1751],{},"100多个亿卖给我，我会很乐意买，所以买一部分也是很乐意的。(2010-03-01)",[827,1768,1769,1770,1772,1773,1775],{},"网友：初期利润862算的，头10年0增长",[858,1771,97],{"href":975},"后总额7949，后10年10%利润增长",[858,1774,97],{"href":975},"后总额12523，20年利润总额20472。",[827,1777,1778,1780,1781,1783,1784,1786],{},[833,1779,835],{}," 不知道你的中文是不是有10级。我没提供利润预期，我不觉得",[833,1782,1705],{},"未来20年的利润会这么悲观。我只是随便举个例子，让大家看看怎么用公式而已。有空大家可以根据自己对",[833,1785,1705],{},"生意的理解带入任意数字，然后你能看到很多不同的结果。",[827,1788,1789,1790,1792],{},"你自己选个自己认为有道理的保守的结果大概就很容易知道你要不要投这家公司了，当然是比较完自己的",[858,1791,115],{"href":987},"之后。 (2025-09-26)",[827,1794,1795,1796,1798],{},"博文：《",[858,1797,88],{"href":1046},"量折现法》（2010-05-27）",[827,1800,1801,1804,1805,1807],{},[833,1802,1803],{},"http：\u002F\u002Fwiki.mbalib.com\u002Fwiki\u002F%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91%E6%B5%81%E9%87%8F%E6%8A%98%E7%8E%B0%E6%B3%95"," ",[858,1806,88],{"href":1046},"量折现法",[827,1809,1810,1812],{},[833,1811,835],{}," 这个链接讲的比较详细，对非要用计算器来算公司价值的人来讲肯定会有帮助，我相信大家看完以后会头晕的。",[827,1814,1815,1816,1818],{},"在这里，我想举个极端的例子来说明一下用“未来",[858,1817,88],{"href":1046},"折现的思维方式”去毛估估公司内在价值的方法。",[827,1820,1821],{},"假设有家公司，比如叫“美国虎牙”。以下是所有的假设条件：",[827,1823,1824,1825,1827],{},"1．没有债务，以后也没有。（现在有",[858,1826,79],{"href":860},"）",[827,1829,1830],{},"2．股票发行量永久不变。（其实由于option和回购的原因，一直在变）",[827,1832,1833,1834,1836,1837,1839,1840,1842],{},"3．每年有10亿美金",[858,1835,88],{"href":1046},"（正好＝净利润）入账，并且每年都把入账的",[858,1838,88],{"href":1046},"派给股东。（现在",[858,1841,88],{"href":1046},"大过10亿但利润没有到，不分红）",[827,1844,1845],{},"4．拥有“日本虎牙”公司30%的股份。2020年后市值500亿美金。（也许更高，谁知道呢？在日本，虎牙可是比狗牙要流行啊）",[827,1847,1848],{},"5．拥有香港“一路发发”公司的股份30%。2020年后市值1000亿美金。（呵呵，CEO有这个信心，我也觉得有可能，但不确定）",[827,1850,1851],{},"6．拥有中国大陆未上市公司“阿拉奶奶”40%股份。该公司2015年上市，ipo价格是500亿美金，到2020年市值1500亿美金。（很可能）",[827,1853,1854],{},"7．2020年美国有家叫“相当硬”的公司以200亿美金的价格收购了“美国虎牙”的美国部分，同时把其他部分资产（3个上市公司）的股票直接分给所有“美国虎牙”的股东。（没人买也没关系，就为了计算方便。）",[827,1856,1857],{},"8．不考虑股东拿到分红及股票的税收问题。（怎么可能没税收？）",[827,1859,1860],{},"9．假设贴现率6%。（如果是4%或5%的话，差别还挺大的，谁没事算算？）",[827,1862,1863],{},"现在来算这颗“虎牙”可以值多少钱：",[827,1865,1866],{},"a。每年10亿的收入，共10年：10+10\u002F1.06+10\u002F（1.06的平方）+。+10\u002F（1.06的9次方）=10+9.43+8.90+8.40+7.92+7.47+7.05+6.65+6.27+5.91=78.02亿美金．",[827,1868,1869],{},"b。“日本虎牙”的折现：500\u002F（1.06的10次方）*30%=83.76亿美金。",[827,1871,1872],{},"c。“一路发发”的折现：1000\u002F（1.06的10次方）*30%=167.52亿美金。",[827,1874,1875],{},"d。“阿拉奶奶”的折现：1500\u002F（1.06的10次方）*40%=335.04亿美金。",[827,1877,1878],{},"e。“相当硬”的折现：200\u002F（1.06的10次方）=111.68亿美金。",[827,1880,1881],{},"a+b+c+d+e=776.02亿美金。如果以上所有假设条件都成立的话，这就应该是这家公司的“内在价值”了。问题是事实上以上所有条件都是假设，任何一个条件的改变都会改变这家公司的内在价值。这里只是说了10年，实际上评估一个公司如果能够用更长的时间去评估的话，可能会更清楚些（但更难）。",[827,1883,1884],{},"对所有条件是否成立的理解或判断是很难的，按芒格的说法是不会比当一个“鸟类学家”（或者是“经济学家”）容易。",[1886,1887],"hr",{},[827,1889,1890],{},"特别说明的一点：如果一家公司拥有大量现金在手却一直不能增值的话，长期来讲这个现金是会贬值的。问题是如果这个现金用的不好的话，贬值更快。",[827,1892,1893],{},"这个例子的缺陷是b、c、d用的都是市值，这会和内在价值有偏差的。",[1886,1895],{},[827,1897,1898],{},[833,1899,1900],{},"以上所有数据都是为了方便计算而假设的，和任何真实公司无关。",[1886,1902],{},[827,1904,1905],{},[833,1906,1907],{},"引申的结论：烟蒂型投资的回报可能要低于好的成长型公司。这号称是芒格对巴菲特的贡献。",[827,1909,1910],{},[833,1911,1912],{},"另外：这个办法最好算的例子可能是房产。",[827,1914,1915],{},[833,1916,1917,1918,1920,1921,1923],{},"用未来",[858,1919,88],{"href":1046},"折现来计算现在的价钱贵不贵。这里的未来",[858,1922,88],{"href":1046},"指的是（租金-费用）。不明白的想想房子。再不明白就回去看看《穷爸爸》，明白的就可以有机会当《富爸爸》了。",[827,1925,1926,1927,1929],{},"网友：如果拿门面来打比方，买公司相当于买门面；赢利相当于租金；未来",[858,1928,88],{"href":1046},"量折现相当于把现在和未来收取的所有租金打折算到现在看值多少现金；",[827,1931,1932],{},"2020年把公司卖给“相当硬”公司，那公司以后的赢利折现就不要再算了，等于把门面出售，得到最后一笔现金，不要再收取租金了。不知这样对比有不对的地方吗？",[827,1934,1935,1937],{},[833,1936,844],{}," ：差不多。我这个例子里卖掉公司是为了好计算，不然要算到无穷，太麻烦。（2010-05-29）",[827,1939,1940],{},"网友：虎牙按4%折现：",[827,1942,1943],{},"10+9.615+9.245+8.8899+8.5488+8.129+7.903+7.599+7.3069+7.0258=84.35．比5%时又提高了3.27亿美金。",[827,1945,1946,1948],{},[833,1947,844],{}," ：长期而言，我认为折现率6%还是比较合理的。目前世界上主要货币利息都低，不会一直这样的。（2010-05-29）",[827,1950,1951],{},"网友：段哥你好！78.02亿是“美国虎牙”每年10亿收入一共10年折现到今天的收入，这点比较明白，但就此为“美国虎牙”的“内在价值”有点不明白，不明白之处就在每年产生10亿收入的那些“资产”是什么呢“美国虎牙”的市值和每年产生10亿收入的“资产”没关系，段哥见笑了。",[827,1953,1954,1956],{},[833,1955,844],{}," ：把这个例子改成“房子”，你可能就明白了。假设你收了10年租金，然后卖了这个房子。难道你会觉得租金和房子没关系？（2010-05-30）",[827,1958,1959,1960,1962],{},"网友a：我这里有一个问题，是关于这个“虎牙”公司的价值的。按照这篇博文里的方法，大概是78.02亿美金。我觉得这个是比较合理的。但如果按照段哥在博文《Omaha（2）》的评论中提到的算术题“假如这是个算术题：也就是每年都一定赚一个亿（净",[858,1961,88],{"href":1046},"），再假设银行利息永远不变，比如说是5%，那我认为这个公司的内在价值就是20亿。",[827,1964,1965],{},"有趣的是，表面看上去和有多少净资产没关系。实际上，净资产是实现利润的条件之一。”的算法，这个“虎牙”公司的内在价值是10\u002F5%=200亿美金。",[827,1967,1968],{},"我觉得200亿美金和这篇博文中的从净利润得出的价值78.02亿美金差别比较大（“a。每年10亿的收入，共10年：10+10\u002F1.06+10 \u002F（1.06的平方）+……+10\u002F（1.06的9次=10+9.43+8.90+8.40+7.92+7.47+7.05+6.65+6.27+5.91=78.02亿美金。”），不知道为什么有这样大的差别。",[827,1970,1971],{},"是不是算术题中的方法太简单，不实用？",[827,1973,1974,1976],{},[833,1975,844],{}," ：呵呵，我前面说过了，你慢慢看和净资产的关系。看完了再发言。（2010-05-27）",[827,1978,1979,1980,1982],{},"网友：那是不是意味着估值＝净资产+未来",[858,1981,88],{"href":1046},"的折现呢？",[827,1984,1985],{},"似乎有点明白了，但不知是否对；“美国虎牙”“内在价值”只算78.02亿的道理，只有卖了房子，房子才是有效资产，在没卖房子前只能是10年租金的折现。",[827,1987,1988,1990,1991,1993,1994,1996],{},[833,1989,844],{}," ：房子不卖就不是资产了？不卖的房子继续产生",[858,1992,88],{"href":1046},"（收租）！未来",[858,1995,88],{"href":1046},"的时间变长。这个例子里是为了方便计算才卖的，不然就要一直算下去。（2010-05-30）",[827,1998,1999],{},"网友y回复网友a：我才看的时候也和你一样有这个疑问，但现在解决了。",[827,2001,2002,2004],{},[833,2003,835],{}," 一、10\u002F5%=200亿美金。",[827,2006,2007],{},"二、1、10年收入折现=78.02亿美金；",[827,2009,2010],{},"2、2020年卖200亿美金（假设没有其他股份）的折现是111.68亿美金；",[827,2012,2013],{},"3、总计：78亿+111亿=189亿美金了。",[827,2015,2016],{},"三、第一点和第二点不是一样吗？因为是假设数据，还有贴现率不同，使数据有所偏差。",[827,2018,2019,2020,2022,2023,2025,2026,2028],{},"网友：用DCF模型估算公司内在价值，假设A公司当前（第0年）的自由",[858,2021,88],{"href":1046},"为100万，假设前五年高速增长期",[858,2024,97],{"href":975},"率10%，五年后处于永续增长期时，永续增长率3%，",[858,2027,97],{"href":975},"率6%，估算出A公司的内在价值约为 2410万元。",[827,2030,2031,2032,2034,2036],{},"如果市场上这家公司的售价远低于这个价值（比如只有1200万元），那么它就可能是一笔有吸引力的投资。段老师，请问您说的未来",[858,2033,88],{"href":1046},[858,2035,97],{"href":975},"大概是这样的吗？",[827,2038,2039,2041,2042,2044,2045,2048,2049,1485,2051,2053,2054,2056],{},[833,2040,835],{}," 这是个思维模式，但真算是不靠谱的，因为变量太多，假设太多。这也是为什么",[858,2043,70],{"href":1709},"和",[858,2046,135],{"href":2047},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","很重要的原因。不过，可以拿这个算算",[833,2050,1705],{},[833,2052,1705],{},"变量相对少一些，应该好算很多。你为什么给6%",[858,2055,97],{"href":975},"率？你必须要回答这个问题的。",[827,2058,2059,2060,2062],{},"很多假设都是很没道理的，包括你的",[858,2061,97],{"href":975},"率。用比较保守的想法让AI算了一下：",[827,2064,2065,2066,2068,2069,2071,2072,2074,2075,2077],{},"网友：列出",[833,2067,1705],{},"的DCF模型，经营",[858,2070,88],{"href":1046},"：924.64亿元（2024年），自由",[858,2073,88],{"href":1046},"：约900亿元（假设资本支出24.64亿元），假设5年高增长期期间增长率10%，永续增长率3%，",[858,2076,97],{"href":975},"率10%，DCF推算内在价值：1.77万亿元，当前市值：1.80万亿元。",[827,2079,2080,1804,2082,2084,2085,2087,2088,2090,2091,2093],{},[833,2081,835],{},[858,2083,97],{"href":975},"率10%？！你先看看银行利息和国债的利息吧！假设你有钱的话，你会愿意把钱存银行的不到2%的利息而觉得",[833,2086,1705],{},"应该是10%的",[858,2089,97],{"href":975},"率吗？这里最关键是",[833,2092,1705],{},"最后到底能赚多少钱，而你的钱存银行最后取出来到底是多少钱。假设你存20年的话，你会很容易算的。",[827,2095,2096],{},"网友L：如果花800亿买下万科，并一次还清贷款1000亿，共花了1800亿，但是每年才赚100亿，要18年才回本，这个价格没有明显低估。",[827,2098,2099,2101],{},[833,2100,835],{}," 就算万科不要钱卖给我，一次还清贷款1000亿，要10年才回本，似乎也没有捡大便宜，想不通。",[827,2103,2104],{},"网友补充：假如买下，不能这么看，毛看一下。",[827,2106,2107,2109,2110,2112,2113,1485],{},[833,2108,835],{}," 一、万科",[858,2111,64],{"href":1326},"1120亿的时候（半年报），负债表1120亿构成是三部分，1、453亿是预收款（卖房子收到的钱），这个不是实际",[858,2114,64],{"href":1326},[827,2116,2117],{},"2、贷款＋债券是264亿，这部分你买下万科要实际负担的，起码有巨额利息。",[827,2119,2120],{},"3、应付款255亿，暂时别人的钱自己先用着。",[827,2122,2123,2124,2126],{},"实际万科的",[858,2125,64],{"href":1326},"是519亿，它把贷款和应付款”平衡”的很好，好像刚好抵消一样，水平很高（保利负债表搞的就没它好），另有450亿的预收自己先拿着用，所以万科的实际利息支出很少，2.6亿吧。",[827,2128,2129],{},"二、你买下它，它还有现金及等价物180亿是你的。",[827,2131,2132],{},"假如800亿市值（7.27元）买下，你实际付出的是800+519-180=1139亿，也就是EV。2010年实际赚了100多亿，价值是划算的，股价的事情是市场和政策的事。",[827,2134,2135],{},"三、半年报土地储备有3000万平，1139亿拿下，折合约3800元／平，它的销售均价在1万多／平，毛估一下不会吃什么亏的。",[827,2137,2138],{},"如果最新年报思路如上。",[827,2140,2141],{},"网友：有点糊涂了。段总不计算企业未来的利润的折现来估值，只是靠感觉吗？",[827,2143,2144,2146],{},[833,2145,844],{}," 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