[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":4245},["ShallowReactive",2],{"layout-dao":3,"dao-wenda-invest-07":816,"qanda-chapter-navigation":3832,"dao-related-topics":3880},[4,11,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57,63,69,73,78,82,87,91,96,100,105,109,114,119,124,129,134,140,145,150,155,160,165,170,175,180,185,190,196,201,206,211,216,221,226,231,237,243,248,253,258,263,268,273,278,283,288,293,298,303,308,313,318,323,328,333,338,343,348,353,358,363,368,373,378,383,388,393,398,403,408,413,418,423,430,437,442,447,452,457,462,468,473,478,483,488,492,498,503,508,513,518,523,528,534,539,544,549,554,559,565,570,575,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,616,621,626,631,636,641,647,652,657,662,667,672,678,683,689,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,735,740,745,750,755,760,765,770,775,780,785,790,795,800,806,811],{"title":5,"slug":6,"description":7,"category":8,"order":9,"type":10,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"关于本站、来源与更正","about-source-policy","段永平投资问答录是由寻长坡以滚雪球独立整理的中文阅读站。本文说明原文、编者概述、来源核验、日期与更正的处理方式。","关于本站",null,"site-policy",{"title":12,"slug":13,"description":14,"category":15,"order":16,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"本分","benfen","本分是要求自己做该做的事、坚持原则并求责于己。本文从步步高讲话与公开问答梳理五心、诚信和做对事情的关系，解释本分为什么不能用来评判别人。","核心哲学",1,{"title":18,"slug":19,"description":20,"category":15,"order":21,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"平常心","pingchangxin","平常心是回到事物本源、理性思考并把眼光放长远。本文从步步高讲话、投资访谈与王石对谈整理这一理念，解释平常心与进取、稳健经营和长期主义的关系。",2,{"title":23,"slug":24,"description":25,"category":15,"order":26,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing","做对的事情先看方向和原则，发现不对的事情就及时停止。本文整理段永平对本分、不为清单与把事情做对的讨论，说明原则判断和执行能力怎样配合。",3,{"title":28,"slug":29,"description":30,"category":15,"order":31,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui","做对的事情强调原则，把事情做对强调能力、学习与执行。本文整理段永平如何区分两者，为什么发现错误要及时回头，以及两者在经营和投资中的应用。",4,{"title":33,"slug":34,"description":35,"category":15,"order":36,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"能力圈","nengliquan","能力圈重在诚实知道自己懂什么、不懂什么，能判断生意与未来现金流的范围。本文整理段永平对看懂公司、学习扩展与不懂不碰的讨论，而非按行业机械画圈。",5,{"title":38,"slug":39,"description":40,"category":15,"order":41,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"不做什么","buzuoshenme","不做什么是先排除原则性错误，再讨论能力与机会。本文整理段永平的 Stop Doing List、投资三不和企业聚焦案例，说明知道边界如何帮助企业更健康、更长久。",6,{"title":43,"slug":44,"description":45,"category":15,"order":46,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"不做清单与警惕清单","buzuo-yu-jingti","本文分开整理明确不做的事情与需要继续核查的危险信号：不懂不碰、不借钱、不做空，以及现金流、负债和价值陷阱。清单中的概括由编者整理，具体表述见所附问答。",6.5,{"title":48,"slug":49,"description":50,"category":15,"order":51,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou","敢为天下后、后中争先强调看清用户需求与自身优势，再把产品做好。本文整理段永平对后来者、创新、品质和进入时机的讨论，解释它与盲目模仿的区别。",7,{"title":53,"slug":54,"description":55,"category":15,"order":56,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang","消费者导向以最终使用者的体验和真实需求为出发点。本文整理段永平对用户导向、市场导向和利润导向的区分，讨论产品创新及长期经营中的取舍。",8,{"title":58,"slug":59,"description":60,"category":61,"order":62,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","价值投资从理解企业和未来现金流出发。本文整理段永平对买股票就是买公司、能力圈、价格与长期持有的讨论，说明投资与投机在判断依据上的差别。","投资理念",9,{"title":64,"slug":65,"description":66,"category":67,"order":68,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"负债","fuzhai","看负债需要区分有息负债、无息负债及其经营用途。本文整理段永平对低负债、企业价值和房地产财报的讨论，说明不能只用总负债率判断一门生意。","财务指标",10,{"title":70,"slug":71,"description":72,"category":61,"order":68,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"商业模式","shangyemoshi","生意模式就是公司赚钱的模式，判断时要看护城河、长期现金流和企业文化。本文整理段永平为何先用生意模式筛选公司，并对照苹果、网易、GE与Zoom案例。",{"title":74,"slug":75,"description":76,"category":61,"order":77,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"护城河","huchenghe","护城河是保护长期盈利与未来现金流的竞争优势，也属于生意模式的一部分。本文整理段永平对差异化、企业文化和可持续性的判断，以及苹果、茅台等案例。",11,{"title":79,"slug":80,"description":81,"category":67,"order":77,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"净现金","jingxianjin","净现金需要结合现金、负债及实际经营需要来理解。本文整理段永平对网易、苹果与企业价值的讨论，说明现金安全垫并不等于公司一定值得买。",{"title":83,"slug":84,"description":85,"category":67,"order":86,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing","经营开销要看是否真正改善产品、效率与长期价值。本文整理段永平对广告、管理费用和扩张投入的讨论，区分必要支出与为了增长而盲目花钱。",12,{"title":88,"slug":89,"description":90,"category":67,"order":86,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"现金流","xianjinliu","现金流帮助判断利润质量和公司长期价值。本文整理段永平关于未来现金流、真实利润、护城河与资本支出的讨论，说明看现金流需要联系生意而非只看一个数字。",{"title":92,"slug":93,"description":94,"category":67,"order":95,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"真实利润","zhenshilirun","真实利润需要结合现金流、资产质量与经营持续性来理解。本文整理段永平对财报、折旧、资本支出和纸上盈利的讨论，帮助区分报表数字与实际生意。",13,{"title":97,"slug":98,"description":99,"category":61,"order":95,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"折现","zhexian","未来现金流折现是理解公司价值的一种思维方式。本文整理段永平对折现率、机会成本和毛估估的讨论，说明估值为何先依赖看懂生意，而非精确计算。",{"title":101,"slug":102,"description":103,"category":61,"order":104,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"安全边际","anquanbianji","在段永平的表述中，安全边际与对生意的理解、能力圈和未来现金流有关，不能只看股价便宜。本文整理相关问答、网易与苹果案例及常见误解。",14,{"title":106,"slug":107,"description":108,"category":67,"order":104,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan","净资产的数字需要联系资产能否产生现金流来判断。本文整理段永平对商誉、有效资产与企业价值的讨论，说明账面净资产为什么不能独立决定投资价值。",{"title":110,"slug":111,"description":112,"category":61,"order":113,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"基本面","jibenmian","基本面包括生意模式、企业文化、产品竞争力和长期盈利能力。本文整理段永平如何研究公司，为什么股价走势不能替代对生意本身的理解。",15,{"title":115,"slug":116,"description":117,"category":61,"order":118,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"机会成本","jihuichengben","机会成本是选择一项投资时放弃的其他机会，也影响估值的比较标准。本文整理段永平关于持有、换股与折现率的问答，解释不同投资者为何会作出不同判断。",16,{"title":120,"slug":121,"description":122,"category":61,"order":123,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou","长期持有应以持续理解公司价值为前提。本文整理段永平对投资长期、持有就是买入、机会成本和卖出条件的讨论，说明持有时间本身不能替代投资判断。",17,{"title":125,"slug":126,"description":127,"category":61,"order":128,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"投机","touji","在段永平的投资框架中，关键是看判断来自生意价值还是价格变化。本文整理相关访谈和问答，讨论市场预测、短期交易与价值投资的区别。",18,{"title":130,"slug":131,"description":132,"category":61,"order":133,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"止损","zhisun","股价下跌本身与发现投资判断错误需要区分。本文整理段永平对止损、成本价和卖出条件的问答，说明价值投资中怎样从生意变化与机会成本重新审视持有。",19,{"title":135,"slug":136,"description":137,"category":138,"order":139,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业文化体现为团队认同并坚持的价值观与行为。本文整理段永平对本分、诚信、用户导向和利润之上追求的讨论，以及文化如何保护或毁掉好生意。","企业经营",20,{"title":141,"slug":142,"description":143,"category":138,"order":144,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"品牌","pinpai","品牌是消费者对产品与服务的长期认知。本文整理段永平对广告、品质、信任和价格的讨论，以及小霸王、步步高与苹果案例，说明品牌如何建立和被破坏。",21,{"title":146,"slug":147,"description":148,"category":138,"order":149,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"差异化","chayihua","差异化来自满足用户真实需求，不能只追求与别人不同。本文整理段永平对产品、价格竞争和护城河的解释，以及苹果和消费电子的相关案例。",22,{"title":151,"slug":152,"description":153,"category":138,"order":154,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"定价权","dingjiaquan","定价权来自用户认可的差异化和长期价值。本文整理段永平有关提价、合理定价、价格战与护城河的问答，并对照苹果、喜诗糖果和可口可乐案例。",22.5,{"title":156,"slug":157,"description":158,"category":138,"order":159,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","用户体验要从消费者真实使用产品的感受出发。本文整理段永平对功能、品质、产品成本与苹果生态的讨论，说明满足需求比追逐概念更值得关注。",23,{"title":161,"slug":162,"description":163,"category":138,"order":164,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"渠道","qudao","渠道要看产品如何到达用户、各方如何合作及总成本是否合理。本文整理段永平对步步高代理制、价格体系和苹果渠道的讨论，说明渠道与产品、品牌的关系。",24,{"title":166,"slug":167,"description":168,"category":138,"order":169,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"平台","pingtai","平台的价值需要联系用户体验、网络协作和持续盈利来判断。本文整理段永平分析苹果平台与生态的相关表述，讨论平台优势如何进入生意模式和护城河。",25,{"title":171,"slug":172,"description":173,"category":138,"order":174,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","生态系统的价值来自产品、软件与服务相互协作形成的用户体验。本文整理段永平关于苹果生态、用户黏度和竞争优势的表述，讨论它与平台、护城河的关系。",26,{"title":176,"slug":177,"description":178,"category":138,"order":179,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"单一产品","danyichanpin","单一产品模式重在集中资源把产品做好，降低渠道和管理复杂度。本文整理段永平的消费电子经验与苹果案例，讨论聚焦的价值、适用范围和常见误解。",27,{"title":181,"slug":182,"description":183,"category":138,"order":184,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"造钟人","zaozhongren","造钟人建立能持续运转的组织、制度与文化，报时人更多依靠个人判断。本文整理段永平引用《基业长青》的框架及对乔布斯、苹果与企业传承的讨论。",28,{"title":186,"slug":187,"description":188,"category":138,"order":189,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu","利润之上的追求关注企业为何存在、为用户创造什么价值。本文整理段永平对使命、产品和长期盈利的讨论，说明这一理念与赚钱的关系及苹果等案例。",29,{"title":191,"slug":192,"description":193,"category":194,"order":195,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"进取心","jinquxin","进取心与平常心共同构成本分文化：认真投入、提升能力，同时追求健康长久。本文整理步步高讲话与相关问答，讨论发展目标、拼搏精神和急功近利的边界。","品格与心性",30,{"title":197,"slug":198,"description":199,"category":194,"order":200,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"耐心","naixin","耐心既是企业长期积累的基础，也是投资中等待理解与机会的能力。本文整理步步高讲话、巴菲特午餐访谈和公开问答，讨论慢慢变富与盲目坚持的区别。",31,{"title":202,"slug":203,"description":204,"category":194,"order":205,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"责任心","zerenxin","责任心是对团队和家庭承担责任，也是本分五心的一部分。本文整理步步高讲话与相关问答，讨论合作、员工关怀及把责任落到日常行为中的含义。",32,{"title":207,"slug":208,"description":209,"category":194,"order":210,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"爱心","aixin","爱心在本分文化中连接团队、家庭与公益。本文整理段永平对关心员工、陪伴孩子和以身作则的讨论，并区分他的原话与编者解释。",33,{"title":212,"slug":213,"description":214,"category":194,"order":215,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"信誉","xinyu","信誉体现在履行承诺和为原则付出代价时。本文整理段永平的经营访谈、合同案例与相关问答，解释诚信为何应成为本分，而不是换取利益的手段。",34,{"title":217,"slug":218,"description":219,"category":194,"order":220,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"正直","zhengzhi","正直与诚信要求在利益冲突中坚持原则，并兑现承诺。本文整理段永平对 integrity、做人和企业文化的讨论，说明它与本分、理性及长期经营的关系。",35,{"title":222,"slug":223,"description":224,"category":194,"order":225,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"理性","lixing","理性意味着回到事实与本质，减少情绪、短期得失和外界干扰。本文整理段永平对平常心、长期主义和投资决策的讨论，并保留各段引文的具体语境。",36,{"title":227,"slug":228,"description":229,"category":194,"order":230,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi","长期主义强调关注行动的长远后果，追求更健康、更长久。本文整理段永平关于平常心、经营积累与王石对谈的表述，讨论长期视角与短期取舍的关系。",37,{"title":232,"slug":233,"description":234,"category":235,"order":236,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平推荐书单","tuijianshudan","本文区分段永平明确推荐、读过称赞及并不推荐的书，整理《巴菲特致股东的信》等阅读线索。推荐强度以正文原话为准，避免把所有提及过的书都列为推荐。","推荐书单",50,{"title":238,"slug":239,"description":240,"category":241,"order":242,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1998年段永平对步步高所有营销人员的讲话","duanyongping-1998nian-bubugao-yingxiaorenyuan-jianghua","段永平面向步步高营销人员阐述本分、信誉、聚焦、敢为天下后与不攻击对手等经营原则。","访谈实录",98,{"title":244,"slug":245,"description":246,"category":241,"order":247,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1998年巴菲特佛罗里达大学演讲","buffett-1998nian-foluolida-daxue-yanjiang","巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学演讲及问答，讨论能力圈、企业价值、投资错误、集中投资与人生选择。",99,{"title":249,"slug":250,"description":251,"category":241,"order":252,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","段永平畅谈本分做人做企业的理念，回顾从小霸王到步步高的创业历程，强调信誉、股份制与平常心的重要性。",100,{"title":254,"slug":255,"description":256,"category":241,"order":257,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua","段永平阐述步步高企业的本分精神，强调平常心、进取心、耐心、责任心和爱心是企业生存发展的基本原则。",101,{"title":259,"slug":260,"description":261,"category":241,"order":262,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu","段永平在人民大学分享本分经营、敢为天下后、焦点法则等企业理念，并与学生互动探讨创业、品牌与人生。",102,{"title":264,"slug":265,"description":266,"category":241,"order":267,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang","段永平谈步步高的品牌定位、本分竞争哲学、广告策略，强调不创造利润的企业是罪恶的，反对盲目多元化。",103,{"title":269,"slug":270,"description":271,"category":241,"order":272,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang","段永平分享在央视投放广告的实战经验，强调广告只是经营环节之一，产品品质才是品牌根基。",104,{"title":274,"slug":275,"description":276,"category":241,"order":277,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing","全面回顾段永平从小霸王到步步高的创业历程，详述品牌运作、本分信誉、高速公路经营哲学与平常心理念。",105,{"title":279,"slug":280,"description":281,"category":241,"order":282,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong","段永平深度阐述诚信为本、安全发展、敢为天下后、反对盲目创新与多元化等企业经营核心理念。",106,{"title":284,"slug":285,"description":286,"category":241,"order":287,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan","段永平讲述在中欧商学院读MBA的原因：系统学习管理知识以应对WTO竞争，并推动全员学习降低沟通成本。",107,{"title":289,"slug":290,"description":291,"category":241,"order":292,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang","段永平详解敢为天下后战略：后来者如何通过综合素质、品质管理和平常心实现后来居上。",108,{"title":294,"slug":295,"description":296,"category":241,"order":297,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou","段永平作为嘉宾为创业公司把脉，建议先在专业市场站稳脚跟，通过差异化竞争和定向宣传求生存发展。",109,{"title":299,"slug":300,"description":301,"category":241,"order":302,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu","段永平在北大系统阐述诚信为本、平常心经营、消费者导向等理念，并就选人用人、企业管理等问题答疑。",110,{"title":304,"slug":305,"description":306,"category":241,"order":307,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang","段永平回顾明星广告策略的商业逻辑，讲述施瓦辛格广告风波中坚守本分、信守合同承诺的故事。",111,{"title":309,"slug":310,"description":311,"category":241,"order":312,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan","段永平在步步高十周年回顾企业理念，确立本分、诚信等核心价值观，提出“更健康更长久”的企业愿景。",112,{"title":314,"slug":315,"description":316,"category":241,"order":317,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu","段永平分享巴菲特午餐竞拍背后的故事，详述价值投资理念、网易投资经历及从做企业到做投资的转型心得。",113,{"title":319,"slug":320,"description":321,"category":241,"order":322,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu","段永平首次做客新浪聊天，谈与巴菲特午餐缘起、价值投资理念、投资网易始末及慈善观。",114,{"title":324,"slug":325,"description":326,"category":241,"order":327,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo","段永平捐赠浙大后座谈，谈教育捐赠初衷、求是精神、学生应脚踏实地而非空立大志，享受过程最重要。",115,{"title":329,"slug":330,"description":331,"category":241,"order":332,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang","段永平分享巴菲特午餐感悟，强调买股票就是买公司、耐心等待好价格、长期持有的价值投资原则。",116,{"title":334,"slug":335,"description":336,"category":241,"order":337,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan","段永平做客波士堂，谈步步高敢为天下后策略、消费者导向、追求健康长寿而非企业规模。",117,{"title":339,"slug":340,"description":341,"category":241,"order":342,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu","段永平深度访谈，谈成功定义、慈善理念、本分诚信的企业文化、家庭与事业的平衡。",118,{"title":344,"slug":345,"description":346,"category":241,"order":347,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus","段永平第二次与巴菲特午餐后受访，强调不要神化巴菲特、以平常心学习其投资智慧。",119,{"title":349,"slug":350,"description":351,"category":241,"order":352,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh","段永平浙大MBA分享，谈企业基本功、本分文化的核心价值、稳健发展胜过盲目扩张。",120,{"title":354,"slug":355,"description":356,"category":241,"order":357,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj","段永平向人大捐赠3000万美元，谈配比基金模式、教育慈善理念及校友回馈责任。",121,{"title":359,"slug":360,"description":361,"category":241,"order":362,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao","段永平分析苹果商业模式，论其单品策略、生态系统护城河、消费者导向及长期投资价值。",122,{"title":364,"slug":365,"description":366,"category":241,"order":367,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2011年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang","段永平浙大演讲三要点：脚踏实地做事、知道什么不该做、做正直的人。",123,{"title":369,"slug":370,"description":371,"category":241,"order":372,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2015年库克乔治·华盛顿大学毕业典礼演讲：找到你的北斗星","tim-cook-2015nian-huashengdundaxue-biyeyanjiang","蒂姆·库克在2015年乔治·华盛顿大学毕业典礼上谈价值观、平等、乔布斯的影响与人生方向。本页为中文整理译文，原始报道和视频见来源链接。",124,{"title":374,"slug":375,"description":376,"category":241,"order":377,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2015年vivo 20周年晚宴沈炜讲话","shenwei-2015nian-vivo-20zhounian-wanyan-jianghua","沈炜在vivo二十周年晚宴回顾创业历程，讨论本分文化、用户导向、产品转型与企业愿景。",125,{"title":379,"slug":380,"description":381,"category":241,"order":382,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang","段永平回忆浙大岁月，阐述做对的事情哲学、北极星概念及人生选择建议。",126,{"title":384,"slug":385,"description":386,"category":241,"order":387,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2018年段永平斯坦福大学53问","duanyongping-2018nian-sitanfu-daxue-53wen","段永平在斯坦福大学回答53个问题，涉及人生、企业经营、产品、投资、家庭与黄峥等话题。",127,{"title":389,"slug":390,"description":391,"category":241,"order":392,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2024年费德勒达特茅斯毕业演讲（节译）：努力与失败","feidele-2024nian-biyeyanjiang","费德勒2024年达特茅斯学院毕业演讲的中文节译，选取“毫不费力是个神话”与“这只是一分”两课，谈训练、纪律和面对失败。完整演讲见校方原文。",128,{"title":394,"slug":395,"description":396,"category":241,"order":397,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban","段永平浙大2025年演讲，谈做对的事情、AI时代机遇、创业投资心得及本分文化实践。",129,{"title":399,"slug":400,"description":401,"category":241,"order":402,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu","段永平与王石对谈，论投资哲学、文化传承、营销本质、子女教育及平常心即长期主义。",130,{"title":404,"slug":405,"description":406,"category":241,"order":407,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年：方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing","段永平与方三文深度对话，谈个人经历、企业文化传承、苹果茅台投资逻辑及AI与教育。",131,{"title":409,"slug":410,"description":411,"category":241,"order":412,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年vivo 30周年纪念晚宴沈炜致辞","shenwei-2025nian-vivo-30zhounian-wanyan-zhici","沈炜在vivo三十周年晚宴回顾步步高与vivo发展，阐释本分、用户导向、平常心与企业长期健康。",132,{"title":414,"slug":415,"description":416,"category":241,"order":417,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平步步高内部讲话：道先于术","duanyongping-bubugao-neibujianghua-daoxianyushu","段永平在步步高内部讲话中谈道先于术、沉没成本、是非不给利益让路，以及企业文化是木桶的底板。",133,{"title":419,"slug":420,"description":421,"category":241,"order":422,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平投资问答录｜核心精简版","duanyongping-touzi-wendalu-hexin-jingjianban","编者从本站问答档案中精选214组问答与论述，按投资、经营与人生主题重排。适合先读核心观点，再通过完整章节核对提问语境；本页为编辑选编。",134,{"title":424,"slug":425,"description":426,"category":427,"order":428,"type":429,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"投资问答录主题目录","wenda-topic-index","七卷主题目录按投资起点、理解企业、财报估值、经营、公司、行业和人生组织47章问答。读者可以沿主线阅读，也可按公司或小节直接查阅。","投资问答录",190,"topic-index",{"title":431,"slug":432,"description":433,"category":427,"order":434,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":16},"买股票就是买公司与价值投资","wenda-invest-01","买股票就是买公司，要先理解生意与长期价值。该章整理价值投资的定义、投资与经营的关系、没有捷径及好公司与好价格的问答。",200,"qanda-chapter","投资的起点与边界",{"title":438,"slug":439,"description":440,"category":427,"order":441,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":21},"投资为什么简单但不容易","wenda-invest-02","投资逻辑可以简单，长期坚持正确过程却不容易。该章整理价值投资的难点、悟性与实践、适合投资的人及小资金问题。",201,{"title":443,"slug":444,"description":445,"category":427,"order":446,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":26},"看懂生意与能力圈","wenda-invest-03","看懂生意需要背景知识和诚实的边界意识。该章整理商业模式、企业文化、研究公司、概率与能力圈的问答，说明不懂时为何可以放弃。",202,{"title":448,"slug":449,"description":450,"category":427,"order":451,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":31},"风险第一：不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰","wenda-invest-04","投资先考虑避免出局，再谈回报。该章整理不做空、不借钱、不用杠杆、不懂不碰和公司负债问题，以及段永平对错误的复盘。",203,{"title":453,"slug":454,"description":455,"category":427,"order":456,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":36},"市场波动、宏观与牛熊","wenda-invest-05","股价波动、宏观变化与公司价值需要分开理解。该章整理投票器与称重机、市场噪声、经济、通胀、汇率、指数及牛熊的问答。",204,{"title":458,"slug":459,"description":460,"category":427,"order":461,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":41},"投资心态、理性与学习方法","wenda-invest-12","理性与学习方法影响投资过程。该章整理平常心、投资经验、高尔夫启发和书籍选择，强调学习思考逻辑而非只复制别人的结论。",205,{"title":463,"slug":464,"description":465,"category":427,"order":466,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":16},"伟大企业与长坡厚雪","wenda-business-01","伟大企业要看长期竞争力、诚信和持续盈利。该章整理段永平对伟大企业标准、长坡厚雪与增长空间的问答，保留提问语境和原文日期。",206,"怎样看懂好企业",{"title":469,"slug":470,"description":471,"category":427,"order":472,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":21},"商业模式与投资确定性","wenda-business-02","生意模式是理解公司赚钱方式与长期确定性的起点。该章整理定义、护城河、未来现金流及苦生意特征的问答，帮助比较不同公司的模式。",207,{"title":474,"slug":475,"description":476,"category":427,"order":477,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":26},"护城河与差异化","wenda-business-03","护城河来自能够持续的竞争优势与差异化。该章整理垄断、定价权、用户需求和难以差异化行业的讨论，说明竞争优势需要继续检验。",208,{"title":479,"slug":480,"description":481,"category":427,"order":482,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":31},"好产品与用户导向","wenda-business-04","产品判断应先看最终消费者的真实体验。该章整理消费者导向与市场、利润导向的区别，以及好产品的标准、观察方法和实际案例。",209,{"title":484,"slug":485,"description":486,"category":427,"order":487,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":36},"品牌的本质","wenda-business-06","品牌是消费者长期认知的积累，需要产品和服务持续兑现。该章整理品牌、价格、名称、品牌建立及不容易形成品牌的生意等讨论。",210,{"title":135,"slug":489,"description":490,"category":427,"order":491,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":41},"wenda-business-08","企业文化要从企业长期的行为与选择中理解。该章整理文化的定义、判断方法、建立和传承，并保留具体公司案例及不同语境。",211,{"title":493,"slug":494,"description":495,"category":427,"order":496,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":16},"财报、现金流、ROE与净资产","wenda-invest-09","财报帮助核对一门生意的表现，不能用单个指标替代理解。该章整理现金流、真实利润、净资产、负债、ROE与指标边界的问答。",212,"财报、估值与投资决策",{"title":499,"slug":500,"description":501,"category":427,"order":502,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":21},"估值的起点：定性判断与现金流折现","wenda-invest-07","估值先依赖定性判断，再用毛估估理解内在价值。该章整理未来现金流折现、价值与价格的问答，说明估值是一种思维方式。",213,{"title":504,"slug":505,"description":506,"category":427,"order":507,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":26},"折现率、PE与估值案例","wenda-invest-07-cases","估值数字要与生意质量、负债和机会成本一起看。该章整理折现率、PE、EV的使用边界，以及万科、GE、茅台和现金流折现的案例。",214,{"title":509,"slug":510,"description":511,"category":427,"order":512,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":31},"分红、回购与资本配置","wenda-invest-10","资本配置要看资金如何为股东创造长期价值。该章整理分红、回购、债务和公司作为买家的讨论，保留价格、财务状况等判断前提。",215,{"title":514,"slug":515,"description":516,"category":427,"order":517,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":36},"长期持有、集中投资与机会成本","wenda-invest-06","长期持有、集中投资和卖出都需要回到公司价值与机会成本。该章整理持有期限、好公司与好价格、仓位和投资取舍的问答。",216,{"title":519,"slug":520,"description":521,"category":427,"order":522,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":41},"买卖时机与“持有就是买入”","wenda-invest-08","持有需要不断重新作出买入判断，卖出也应看价值与机会。该章整理买入与历史价格、卖出与成本价、持有就是买入及该卖的时候。",217,{"title":524,"slug":525,"description":526,"category":427,"order":527,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":51},"投机、套利、量化与衍生品","wenda-invest-11","该章区分投资、投机与套利的判断依据，整理期权、卖put、量化和衍生品的历史问答。操作细节须结合原问题和当时条件理解。",218,{"title":529,"slug":530,"description":531,"category":427,"order":532,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":16},"本分、平常心与利润之上的追求","wenda-business-09","本分要求自己坚持原则，平常心强调理性想长远。该章整理信誉、承诺、利润之上的追求及其长期结果，区分原话与问题中的假设。",219,"怎样经营企业",{"title":535,"slug":536,"description":537,"category":427,"order":538,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":21},"Stop Doing List、聚焦与更健康更长久","wenda-business-11","不为清单先排除不该做的事情，再集中资源把产品做好。该章整理价格战、份额、性价比、聚焦与更健康更长久的经营原则。",220,{"title":540,"slug":541,"description":542,"category":427,"order":543,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":26},"创新与敢为天下后","wenda-business-05","创新需要满足真实用户需求，敢为天下后也需要自己的差异化。该章整理创新边界、专利、环境与后中争先的经营问答。",221,{"title":545,"slug":546,"description":547,"category":427,"order":548,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":31},"营销、广告、渠道与出海","wenda-business-07","营销和广告需要表达产品价值，渠道需要匹配价格与合作关系。该章整理广告投入、代言、价格体系、渠道及国际市场的经营问答。",222,{"title":550,"slug":551,"description":552,"category":427,"order":553,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":36},"创始人、CEO、团队与激励","wenda-business-10","组织长期发展涉及创始人、管理层、授权、团队与公平激励。该章整理造钟人、CEO、董事会、选人育人和规矩的问答。",223,{"title":555,"slug":556,"description":557,"category":427,"order":558,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":41},"收购与多元化","wenda-business-12","多元化与收购要看企业是否懂得新业务、能否创造长期价值。该章整理业务边界、收购条件、多品牌与分拆的问答及案例。",224,{"title":560,"slug":561,"description":562,"category":427,"order":563,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":16},"苹果：产品、商业模式与生态","wenda-company-apple-01","该章整理段永平认识苹果产品和生意模式的过程，涉及单一产品、用户体验、生态、取舍，以及与安卓、三星的竞争。",225,"重点公司深读",{"title":566,"slug":567,"description":568,"category":427,"order":569,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":21},"苹果：管理层与企业文化","wenda-company-apple-02","该章整理段永平对乔布斯、库克与苹果企业文化的评价，讨论报时人和造钟人、接班、产品精神及利润之上的追求。",226,{"title":571,"slug":572,"description":573,"category":427,"order":574,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":26},"苹果：估值、持有与资本配置","wenda-company-apple-03","该章按历史语境整理段永平买入和持有苹果的判断，涉及估值指标、股价下跌、分红、回购、现金与成熟期的公司价值。",227,{"title":576,"slug":577,"description":578,"category":427,"order":579,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":31},"贵州茅台：产品、品牌与商业模式","wenda-company-maotai-01","该章整理段永平对茅台品质、品牌、消费者心智与生意模式的问答，讨论护城河及产品文化和企业文化的关系。",228,{"title":581,"slug":582,"description":583,"category":427,"order":584,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":36},"贵州茅台：治理、渠道与i茅台","wenda-company-maotai-02","该章整理茅台治理、多元化、假酒、渠道和i茅台相关问答，关注直购、直销与价格体系，保留历史背景和问题中的前提。",229,{"title":586,"slug":587,"description":588,"category":427,"order":589,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":41},"贵州茅台：估值与投资判断","wenda-company-maotai-03","该章整理段永平在塑化剂事件、买入增持及长期持有茅台时的判断，涉及估值、价格、分红、回购与资本配置。",230,{"title":591,"slug":592,"description":593,"category":427,"order":594,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":51},"小霸王与步步高","wenda-company-bbk","该章整理小霸王与步步高的创业和经营问答，涉及本分诚信、不上市、不为清单、产品品牌及长期发展，保留不同年份的语境。",231,{"title":596,"slug":597,"description":598,"category":427,"order":599,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":56},"网易","wenda-company-netease","该章整理段永平发现、买入与持有网易的过程，涉及梦幻西游、丁磊、团队、现金、回购和卖出，保留不同年份的判断。",232,{"title":601,"slug":602,"description":603,"category":427,"order":604,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":62},"阿里巴巴与雅虎","wenda-company-alibaba-yahoo","该章按历史语境整理段永平投资雅虎、理解阿里股权与评价阿里文化的问答，涉及管理层、使命、假货争议、电商竞争及卖出后的观察。",233,{"title":606,"slug":607,"description":608,"category":427,"order":609,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":68},"泡泡玛特","wenda-company-pop-mart","该章呈现段永平从看不懂到重新理解泡泡玛特的过程，涉及情绪价值、壁垒、王宁、门店体验与投资操作，保留观点变化的时间语境。",234,{"title":611,"slug":612,"description":613,"category":427,"order":614,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":16},"消费电子与日本制造","wenda-company-consumer-electronics","该章整理段永平对消费电子及日本制造的历史观察，涉及国产企业、诺基亚、摩托罗拉、联想及日本公司，重点关注产品与竞争。",235,"行业与公司对照",{"title":617,"slug":618,"description":619,"category":427,"order":620,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":21},"游戏行业与中国游戏公司","wenda-company-china-games","该章整理段永平对游戏生意、好游戏、玩家体验与行业变化的问答，保留社会争议、估值和中国游戏公司案例的具体语境。",236,{"title":622,"slug":623,"description":624,"category":427,"order":625,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":26},"互联网、科技与新产业","wenda-company-tech-platforms","该章整理互联网平台、科技与新产业的公开问答，关注产品、商业模式、长期竞争力与看不懂的边界，各公司判断保留历史语境。",237,{"title":627,"slug":628,"description":629,"category":427,"order":630,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":31},"零售与服务业案例","wenda-company-retail-services","该章整理零售、服务、教育培训及航空业的公司问答，关注用户需求、生意模式和能力圈，也包含投资卖出与反思案例。",238,{"title":632,"slug":633,"description":634,"category":427,"order":635,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":36},"能源与工业企业案例","wenda-company-energy-industrial","该章整理西方石油、GE、代工业和光伏等案例，关注看懂生意、行业周期与投资反思；各段判断应结合发言日期理解。",239,{"title":637,"slug":638,"description":639,"category":427,"order":640,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":41},"传统行业公司群像","wenda-company-traditional-industries","该章按行业整理家电、汽车、食品、地产、园林与银行案例，涉及国企机制、产品竞争和估值，帮助对照不同行业的生意特征。",240,{"title":642,"slug":643,"description":644,"category":427,"order":645,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":16},"做对的事情与把事情做对","wenda-life-01","该章整理做对的事情、把事情做对与不该做的事情，涉及巴菲特、芒格、个人经历、练习和面对质疑，保留平常心的生活语境。",241,"人生与成长",{"title":648,"slug":649,"description":650,"category":427,"order":651,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":21},"正直、理性与长期视角","wenda-life-02","该章整理段永平对正直、诚信、原则和理性的讨论，关注长期视角与脚踏实地，帮助理解本分如何进入日常选择。",242,{"title":653,"slug":654,"description":655,"category":427,"order":656,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":26},"职业、创业与享受过程","wenda-life-03","职业和创业需要理解自己，并找到愿意长期投入的事情。该章整理段永平对职业选择、创业、喜欢的工作与享受过程的问答。",243,{"title":658,"slug":659,"description":660,"category":427,"order":661,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":31},"家庭、孩子与教育","wenda-life-04","该章整理段永平的家庭与教育问答，涉及陪伴、安全感、学习、金钱、游戏、边界和传承，呈现个人经验及问题的具体背景。",244,{"title":663,"slug":664,"description":665,"category":427,"order":666,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":36},"学习、阅读与公益","wenda-life-05","该章整理开放学习、阅读、AI学习与公益相关问答，关注思考逻辑、教育公益和长期环境，保留推荐、转述与个人观点的区别。",245,{"title":668,"slug":669,"description":670,"category":427,"order":671,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":41},"运动、睡眠与高尔夫","wenda-life-06","该章保存段永平关于运动、力量训练、睡眠、体检和高尔夫的个人经验问答。健康相关发言保留日期与语境，不能据此替代个人医疗判断。",246,{"title":673,"slug":674,"description":675,"category":676,"order":677,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平如何研究一家公司：从产品、年报到企业文化","duanyongping-kan-dong-yijia-gongsi","根据段永平的公开问答，整理研究一家公司的资料清单、阅读顺序和判断框架：产品、商业模式、企业文化、财报、专项验证与估值。","公司与人物",417,{"title":676,"slug":679,"description":680,"category":676,"order":681,"type":682,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"gongsi-yu-renwu","按段永平视角整理他高度评价、明显关注或正在重估的公司与人物，保留原文依据和边界条件。",5000,"index",{"title":684,"slug":685,"description":686,"category":676,"order":687,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"苹果：段永平为什么高度评价这家公司","company-apple","段永平最看重苹果的地方，不只是产品好，而是苹果在强企业文化下形成了强大的生态系统、商业模式和长期聚焦“做对的事情”的能力。",5010,"company",{"title":690,"slug":691,"description":692,"category":676,"order":693,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄峥：段永平为什么高度评价他","person-huangzheng","段永平评价黄峥，核心不是“聪明”或“年轻”，而是黄峥关注事物本质、有很强学习能力，并且对什么是对的事情有清醒认识。",5020,"person",{"title":696,"slug":697,"description":698,"category":676,"order":699,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"泡泡玛特有定价权吗：段永平视角下的提价能力","company-pop-mart","泡泡玛特已出现新品进入更高价格带与差异化需求的定价权迹象，但同款产品持续提价的能力仍待验证。本文结合财报与产品变化作编者分析，区分价格、产品升级和IP热度。",5030,{"title":701,"slug":702,"description":703,"category":676,"order":704,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"王宁：段永平为什么欣赏泡泡玛特创始人","person-wangning","段永平欣赏王宁，核心在于王宁对商业的理解、长期努力、做对事情的意识、细节能力，以及带领团队把情绪价值产品做成全球品牌的能力。",5040,{"title":706,"slug":707,"description":708,"category":676,"order":709,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"贵州茅台：段永平为什么高度评价这家公司","company-maotai","段永平看重茅台，不只是因为它贵或知名，而是因为它有稀缺产品、强品牌、长需求周期和优秀现金流，同时也需要警惕多元化、假酒和渠道问题。",5050,{"title":711,"slug":712,"description":713,"category":676,"order":714,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"网易：段永平为什么长期评价这家公司","company-netease","网易是段永平投资体系里的经典案例：低价只是入口，真正支撑他长期持有的是游戏业务、现金、朴实团队和丁磊没有乱花钱的克制。",5060,{"title":716,"slug":717,"description":718,"category":676,"order":719,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"腾讯：段永平为什么认为它是长坡厚雪","company-tencent","段永平认可腾讯，是因为它有强大的社交关系、微信和微信支付带来的深远影响，以及不错的商业模式和企业文化；但他也承认自己对腾讯的理解不如苹果。",5070,{"title":721,"slug":722,"description":723,"category":676,"order":724,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"阿里巴巴：段永平为什么曾高度评价又保留","company-alibaba","段永平曾高度评价阿里和马云，核心是企业文化、使命感和长坡厚雪；但后来对业务复杂度、公司问题和再现辉煌的不确定性保留明显。",5080,{"title":726,"slug":727,"description":728,"category":676,"order":729,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"拼多多：段永平如何看这家公司","company-pinduoduo","段永平对拼多多的判断，起点是黄峥和团队：他认可人、学习能力和本分文化，但也一直把拼多多放在“仍需继续看懂商业模式”的框架里。",5090,{"title":731,"slug":732,"description":733,"category":676,"order":734,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"英伟达：段永平为什么说它厉害但难看懂","company-nvidia","段永平承认英伟达非常厉害，甚至称其“堪称芯片界的苹果”；但他真正保留的是长期护城河、算力需求持续性和自己能否看懂十年。",5100,{"title":736,"slug":737,"description":738,"category":676,"order":739,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"任天堂：段永平从中学到什么","company-nintendo","任天堂在段永平体系里更像早期经营经验的参照物：他从任天堂理解了游戏行业、渠道成本和单一产品模式，也借此形成了后来理解苹果、网易的框架。",5110,{"title":741,"slug":742,"description":743,"category":676,"order":744,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"GE：段永平为什么后来修正这笔投资","company-ge","GE 是段永平体系里的反面教材：他曾因企业文化和韦尔奇叙事认可 GE，但后来发现生意太复杂、文化理解不够扎实、多元化并非例外。",5120,{"title":746,"slug":747,"description":748,"category":676,"order":749,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"新东方：段永平为什么既认可又保留","company-new-oriental","段永平认可新东方和俞敏洪的韧性，也认为新东方能做到今天很了不起；但他不太喜欢这类“力气活”生意模式，也难以找到愿意永远持有的感觉。",5130,{"title":751,"slug":752,"description":753,"category":676,"order":754,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"巴菲特：段永平为什么高度尊重他","person-buffett","段永平尊重巴菲特，不是因为“股神”光环，而是因为巴菲特把“买股票就是买公司”坚持到骨子里，并以朴实、谦虚、长期和理性的方式生活。",5200,{"title":756,"slug":757,"description":758,"category":676,"order":759,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"芒格：段永平为什么重视他的理性","person-munger","段永平重视芒格，核心在“理性”：芒格讲的 rationality，和段永平讲的平常心几乎是同一件事。",5210,{"title":761,"slug":762,"description":763,"category":676,"order":764,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"乔布斯：段永平为什么说他既是报时人也是造钟人","person-steve-jobs","段永平对乔布斯的评价，核心不是个人崇拜，而是乔布斯把“利润之上的追求”注入苹果文化，并留下了能继续运转的组织。",5220,{"title":766,"slug":767,"description":768,"category":676,"order":769,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"库克：段永平为什么认为他是更好的 CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":499,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":21,"date":9,"description":501,"editor":3813,"extension":3814,"meta":3815,"navigation":3816,"order":502,"path":3817,"publishedAt":9,"seo":3818,"seoDescription":501,"seoTitle":3819,"slug":500,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":847,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":3820,"sourceStatus":3821,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":3822,"stem":3823,"summary":501,"tags":3824,"type":435,"updatedAt":3829,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":3830,"_collection":3831},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-07.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":3807},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,840,843,853,856,861,864,867,870,873,876,879,882,887,895,900,903,908,911,916,919,924,927,932,935,940,946,949,954,960,965,968,976,979,984,990,993,996,999,1002,1007,1010,1015,1018,1027,1030,1033,1038,1041,1048,1051,1056,1059,1062,1065,1070,1073,1078,1081,1086,1089,1092,1095,1100,1103,1106,1115,1118,1123,1126,1131,1134,1139,1146,1151,1154,1159,1162,1167,1170,1178,1184,1191,1197,1200,1212,1215,1218,1223,1234,1244,1251,1254,1264,1267,1270,1279,1282,1285,1288,1291,1297,1300,1308,1311,1318,1323,1329,1338,1346,1355,1361,1364,1372,1375,1380,1383,1386,1389,1392,1397,1400,1405,1408,1413,1416,1419,1424,1427,1430,1434,1441,1446,1449,1454,1457,1462,1465,1470,1473,1478,1481,1489,1492,1497,1500,1505,1508,1513,1516,1519,1526,1529,1534,1537,1546,1552,1555,1558,1563,1566,1569,1578,1584,1590,1593,1598,1601,1610,1613,1618,1621,1626,1629,1632,1637,1640,1645,1648,1653,1659,1665,1670,1676,1681,1693,1702,1711,1717,1727,1733,1743,1749,1752,1764,1768,1771,1776,1785,1788,1791,1794,1797,1803,1808,1814,1817,1820,1829,1834,1840,1848,1854,1872,1877,1883,1886,1891,1897,1902,1905,1913,1918,1921,1924,1927,1936,1939,1942,1949,1957,1960,1963,1966,1969,1972,1987,1990,2009,2012,2015,2021,2033,2060,2063,2075,2082,2091,2105,2108,2111,2126,2139,2153,2156,2159,2167,2173,2181,2187,2198,2201,2209,2212,2220,2226,2229,2237,2246,2249,2258,2261,2270,2276,2281,2284,2290,2304,2313,2316,2326,2333,2340,2343,2357,2371,2382,2388,2407,2417,2423,2445,2457,2470,2479,2488,2497,2506,2512,2518,2530,2533,2536,2539,2544,2547,2550,2556,2559,2562,2567,2570,2573,2578,2583,2586,2589,2595,2611,2619,2625,2628,2631,2639,2648,2654,2660,2666,2673,2679,2682,2685,2696,2699,2707,2710,2722,2727,2732,2745,2756,2765,2781,2789,2792,2795,2798,2807,2817,2820,2825,2831,2836,2842,2847,2850,2853,2858,2864,2870,2875,2878,2889,2892,2900,2905,2908,2913,2922,2930,2935,2938,2946,2961,2972,2988,2999,3002,3007,3012,3015,3023,3029,3040,3057,3060,3086,3089,3092,3100,3106,3112,3123,3126,3134,3137,3145,3150,3153,3160,3169,3172,3192,3195,3198,3206,3212,3226,3235,3253,3262,3271,3283,3286,3295,3301,3312,3315,3324,3336,3343,3353,3362,3368,3380,3391,3402,3413,3419,3428,3437,3442,3450,3453,3462,3468,3473,3478,3483,3501,3504,3511,3520,3527,3530,3535,3540,3545,3548,3553,3556,3561,3566,3571,3577,3582,3588,3596,3605,3616,3622,3627,3630,3636,3642,3653,3658,3661,3664,3672,3675,3681,3689,3692,3697,3700,3703,3714,3717,3726,3736,3741,3753,3758,3764,3767,3770,3776,3783,3788,3795,3800],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-什么是估值定性判断与毛估估","第一节 什么是估值：定性判断与毛估估",[827,828,829],"p",{},"不明真相的群众：2011，业绩尚可，伟大的公司还没有找到。回报：60%左右。没有精确地算，也不打算去算。这是一个以中概股为主要投资方向的组合，在中概指数大幅下挫的情况下取得这个投资回报，略感欣慰。不过更欣慰的是自己对估值的理解也略有提升。\n不明真相的群众：所以，卖出了无法估值的，并且决心不再赌博。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 呵呵，那是很大的进步。不过真要做到不容易哈。",[827,838,839],{},"好球！希望下个球也好运气哈。卖股票时最重要的不是是否赚钱了，要平常心去想多少钱该卖，不然很难在真正碰到好公司时拿得住。新浪根本就是投机嘛，你不光卖的时候对估值迷茫，其实买的时候也是迷茫的。淘米卖的很理性！对苹果和google的说法也有点怪，因为你说卖的时候无法估值，可是你买的时候是怎么“估值”的呢？那个不小心赚3倍的股票你放了多少百分比？",[827,841,842],{},"网友H：段总估值不用DCF，我想也确实用不着，因为不会准确。用最安全的方法毛估估就可以了，判断肯定低估，段总可以神秘地定义为“估感”，有点“球感”的意思，这就是艺术的成分，呵呵。",[827,844,845,848,849,852],{},[833,846,847],{},"段永平"," ：",[833,850,851],{},"其实DCF就是毛估估的，所以是一个东西。"," （2010-04-26）",[827,854,855],{},"网友：未来利润的折现很难估算吧。估算第二年的利润都很难了。更不用说长久的事。",[827,857,858,860],{},[833,859,835],{}," 如果不能估算折现的话，你买的是什么呢？毛估估是一定要的，不然就是赌博了。（2010-05-11）",[827,862,863],{},"网友：一些感悟请段兄点拨：",[827,865,866],{},"1、股票的背后是企业。以做企业的立场和视角去投资。",[827,868,869],{},"2、企业家是灵魂。有诚信、有能力、有上进心的企业家是第一要素。",[827,871,872],{},"3、公开信息对价值投资来说就足够了。公告、报纸、投行报告、政府宣传等就可挖掘出税收、营业额、企业文化、企业家能力等有价值的信息。",[827,874,875],{},"4、估值与安全边际。成长性、确定性、市场情绪都会影响整体市场估值，更有效的是“毛估估”——如五六折买入。",[827,877,878],{},"5、知行合一。真知即所以为行，不行不足谓之知。",[827,880,881],{},"6、大道至简。别试图尝试所有方法，重复让自己成功过的即使是看上去有点乏味的方法。",[827,883,884,886],{},[833,885,847],{}," ：总结得蛮好的。（2011-01-04）",[827,888,889,890,894],{},"网友：我想请问当初买入网易时是以什么方式对网易估值的呢？是凭您做游戏的经验加上当时网易的用户数和",[891,892,88],"a",{"href":893},"\u002Fxianjinliu","和对这个公司管理层的认可等么？假设当网易股价到达您最初认为的估值时，您从哪些角度发现可以继续持有呢？",[827,896,897,899],{},[833,898,835],{}," 好像巴菲特讲过：有一个300斤的胖子走进来，我不用秤就知道他很胖。我买网易时可真没认真“估值”过。（2010-03-06）",[827,901,902],{},"网友：你常用的估值方法是什么？",[827,904,905,907],{},[833,906,835],{}," 我也没有固定的方式。事实上，我就没怎么认真估过值，毛估估算下就行了。前面我提过几个我买的时候的想法的例子（网易、创维、ge和Yahoo），你有兴趣可以查查。（2010-04-07）",[827,909,910],{},"网友：巴菲特说DCF是唯一合乎逻辑的估值方法。但他在收购广告中说，接到案子会快速报价，通常只需要5分钟左右；而5分钟是不可能用DCF估值的，可见还有其他合乎逻辑的估值方法。",[827,912,913,915],{},[833,914,847],{}," ：那就是毛估估。意思就是5分钟就能算明白的东西，一定够便宜。（2010-04-28）",[827,917,918],{},"网友：文章中“下行空间”是指公司大致的价值与公司总市值的差吗？可不可以认为，“下行空间”起到巴菲特所说的“安全边际”的作用？",[827,920,921,923],{},[833,922,835],{}," 差不多就是这个意思。（2010-05-09）",[827,925,926],{},"网友：请教一下：你毛估估时，考虑企业的成长性嘛？如果考虑，毛估估中的6折是否会根据企业成长性做调整？",[827,928,929,931],{},[833,930,847],{}," ：毛估估当然要考虑成长性。折现就是考虑成长性以后的结果。（2010-05-09）",[827,933,934],{},"网友：想请教您一下（所谓内在价值就是未来利润的折现），未来利润是怎么算的啊？",[827,936,937,939],{},[833,938,847],{}," ：多数情况下我也不会。很少的时候，我觉得可以毛估估地算出来，这里面有时可以找到投资机会（有一部分可能还算错了）。（2010-05-11）",[827,941,942,945],{},[833,943,944],{},"我个人理解逆向思维指的是从不同的角度看问题。在投资里，逆向思维大概就是能看到大家看不到的价值吧，不然大家也不会用很便宜的价钱卖给你。","(2012-05-15)",[827,947,948],{},"网友：想问你一个问题，你一般对毛毛估打几折？是不是40分钱买1元？",[827,950,951,953],{},[833,952,847],{}," ：毛估估的意思就是其实我也不知道该打几折。反正肯定觉得很明显便宜就是了，就是那种不会睡不着觉的价钱。（2011-01-19）",[827,955,956,957],{},"毛估估不是这个意思！",[833,958,959],{},"毛估估的意思是当你认为至少值20块的时候我可以用12块买（当然13、14其实也可以）。",[827,961,962],{},[833,963,964],{},"最重要的是：假设这家公司是非上市公司，市值这个价钱你买不？关于会被人收购的想法和“buy high，sell higher”的想法无异，早晚要吃苦头的。也许很多人已经吃过苦头了，只是不思悔改而已。",[827,966,967],{},"网友：老巴说的是“宁要模糊的正确，也不要精确的错误（Better Be Approximately Right Than Precisely Wrong）”呀！你们都是从市值的角度去算的，而我们经常会从市盈率的角度去估值。这就是差别呀！",[827,969,970,848,972,975],{},[833,971,847],{},[833,973,974],{},"“宁要模糊的正确。也不要精确的错误”呵呵，真是老巴说的？还是老巴说得清楚啊！我觉得这就是我说的毛估估的意思。很多人的估值就有点精确的错误的意思。"," （2018-05-28）",[827,977,978],{},"网友：‘定性分析赚得狠，定量分析赚得稳’～～巴菲特在早期给合伙人信中的一句话",[827,980,981,983],{},[833,982,835],{}," 也有道理",[827,985,986,987],{},"我总是认为大致的估值主要用于判断下行的空间，",[833,988,989],{},"定性的分析才是真正利润的来源，这也可能是价值投资里最难的东西。",[827,991,992],{},"一般而言，赚到几十倍甚至更多的股票绝不是靠估值估出来的，不然没道理投资人一开始不全盘压上（当时我要知道网易会涨160倍，我还不把他全买下来？）。",[827,994,995],{},"正是由于定性分析有很多不确定性，所以多数情况下人们往往即使看好也不敢下大注，或就算下大注也不敢全力以赴。（2010-04-25）",[827,997,998],{},"实际上，每个人都会把可以量化的东西看得过重，因为他们想“发扬”自己在学校里面学的统计技巧，于是忽略了那些虽然无法量化但是更加重要的东西。我一生都致力于避免这种错误，我觉得我这么干挺不错的。",[827,1000,1001],{},"网友：大行对淘宝的估价是100亿美元，是考量了未来两年的高速增长后的估值……",[827,1003,1004,1006],{},[833,1005,847],{}," ：呵呵，大行的估价经常是没有太大意义的。他们也就顶多看两年，能看远点的都不愿意干这份工作。（2010-05-17）",[827,1008,1009],{},"网友Q：时间越长．越只能看到一些质化的东西，如文化，竟争优势，很难想象出很赚多少钱啊．",[827,1011,1012,1014],{},[833,1013,835],{}," 呵呵，你说的也对。角度有一点不同。在所有的假设条件中，时间越长，变数越多。如果能找到时间长也不变的公司，那就是最好的投资标的。巴菲特的公司里就有不少这类公司，他们的优势不会随时间和技术的变化而变化。（2010-05-27）",[827,1016,1017],{},"网友：关于估值这个问题，我想了很多，有的人说估值是门艺术，我觉得估值科学加艺术。挺难的东西，做投资的人都要解决这个课题。估值不是非黑即白，没有公式模型可套。我觉得估值，就是给一个企业打分，是很客观的东西。很多东西要考虑，各种内因，外因要考虑，内因应该是最重要的，这也就是核心文化，制度方面的东西。",[827,1019,1020,1022,1023,1026],{},[833,1021,835],{}," 我也不知道估值属于科学还是艺术，我还一直以为科学就是艺术，艺术也挺科学的呢。",[833,1024,1025],{},"我总觉得估值实际上是“功夫”"," 。“功夫熊猫”电影里最大的缺憾是“功夫”没有体现时间性。实际上中文里“功夫”的意思本身就是“时间”的意思。（2011-01-05）",[827,1028,1029],{},"网友：我说的艺术的是大概的，主观的，模糊的意思；说科学主要想说估值也要理性的。？段先生说估值就是时间，我不太明白，这可能段先生从功夫熊猫电影悟出的东西，我的水平还不太理解。我看功夫熊猫就2个体会：1，投资没有秘密，2，相信。我不太明白乌龟为什么要让“师傅”相信熊猫能行，我感觉电影告诉观众的是“相信”本身，是一种信念的意思，坚持的意思。",[827,1031,1032],{},"作为投资，我就觉得我们应该相信复利的力量，相信常识的力量，相信价格总会回归价值的力量。",[827,1034,1035,1037],{},[833,1036,847],{}," ：大家别把《功夫熊猫》太当回事了，那是娱乐产品。",[827,1039,1040],{},"我没说估值就是时间啊。我的言下之意是：",[827,1042,1043,1044,1047],{},"1、",[833,1045,1046],{},"要学会“估值”是要花很长时间的，绝不是很多人以为的不知道哪里有一个神秘的公式，每当要估值时就用公式算一下就可以了。这个很长的时间大概不是用小时或天来计算的，大概用很多年作为单位比较合适"," 。",[827,1049,1050],{},"2、对某个企业的“估值”经常也是要花很长的时间的。",[827,1052,1053],{},[833,1054,1055],{},"我对“估值”的定义基本上就是对企业的了解，只有当我觉得很了解很了解一个企业的时候，我才能对企业有一个大概的“估值”，这往往需要很长的时间。",[827,1057,1058],{},"当然，过去对企业的了解的积累也是非常有用的，这就是有时候好的投资的决策看起来并没有花很多时间来决定，实际上却是很多年了解的积累的结果。比如，巴菲特决定投高盛可能只花了20分钟，但那其实是他50年理解的积累。我当年“敢”重仓网易也不是看起来那么容易的。我错失苹果也同样是因为积累不够，找不到很了解的感觉。",[827,1060,1061],{},"总而言之，“估值”是需要“功夫”的。（2011-01-08）",[827,1063,1064],{},"网友M：我说的不确定性只针对A股市场，不包括美股。",[827,1066,1067,1069],{},[833,1068,835],{}," 和哪个市场无关。越不懂的东西越多不确定性。（2011-08-14）",[827,1071,1072],{},"网友：美国股市的投机投资者也挺疯狂的，对成长公司的能给出让人瞠目结舌的估值。兰亭集势LightInTheBox，2012年的销售额仅2亿美元，但市值却可以超过10亿美元。",[827,1074,1075,1077],{},[833,1076,835],{}," 路遥知马力，日久见人心！（2013-08-21）",[827,1079,1080],{},"网友d：估值是功夫，言简意赅，还是这个来得贴切。",[827,1082,1083,1085],{},[833,1084,847],{}," ：顺便说下我对“估值”的一点。",[827,1087,1088],{},"我发现大部分人说到“估值”时其实指的都是市场应该给股票一个什么”价“。",[827,1090,1091],{},"个人没对这个术语研究过，但自己现在“估值”时总是在试图搞明白自己付出什么“价”才能5年10年都不操心，或者说拥有的股权在5年10年以及未来带来的实际回报值不值我付出的价钱。这里最大的不同是，我不考虑市场因素，或者说，不管市场目前愿意给什么价。（2014-08-21）",[827,1093,1094],{},"网友：大道可以透露一下您是怎么给企业估值的吗？",[827,1096,1097,1099],{},[833,1098,847],{}," ：我其实并不懂通常意义上的估值，就是所谓股价应该是多少的那种估值。我一般只是想象如果某个公司是个非上市企业，我用目前的市值去拥有这家公司和我其他的机会比较，哪个在未来10年或20年得到的可能回报更高（这里的回报其实是指公司的盈利而不是股价的涨幅）。所以，我能看懂的公司非常少，亏钱的机会也非常少，最后的结果自然是不错的。",[827,1101,1102],{},"举个简单的例子，A股里我从若干年前就基本只拿着茅台，脑子里总是想着10年后茅台会怎么样，所以也容易拿得住，回报也不错。我并不在乎别人这一时期赚了多少钱，我只考虑自己的机会成本。（2019-03-13）",[827,1104,1105],{},"网友：请问大道，除了网易这一次极其成功的逆向投资外，您后续为何更多地“求稳”于茅台、苹果等等呢？是因为网易这样的机会千载难逢吗？",[827,1107,1108,1110,1111,1114],{},[833,1109,835],{}," 我从来没认为我投网易是逆向投资，我投苹果或茅台也不是为求稳。",[833,1112,1113],{},"我投资的标准非常简单，就是在我自己能理解的范围内找长期回报较高的公司去持有。"," （2019-03-16）",[827,1116,1117],{},"网友：请教您个问题，为什么巴老几乎完全公开了其估值＋选股（公司）逻辑与方法、对市场看法、商业模式看法，而且还举了无数个生动的例子，但是却鲜有人可以达到他的长期业绩呢？",[827,1119,1120,1122],{},[833,1121,847],{}," ：据说这是现任世界首富当年问老巴的问题，老巴的回答是：因为极少人像他那样愿意慢慢地变富。（2019-10-09）",[827,1124,1125],{},"网友：大道有没有遇到过那种觉得公司很好但因为估值太高而放弃买入的情况？",[827,1127,1128,1130],{},[833,1129,835],{}," 当然有啊！(2025-07-12)",[827,1132,1133],{},"网友：yhoo涨得有点快啊，能理解段大哥的指教了。正好炒到底部是有点不好。",[827,1135,1136,1138],{},[833,1137,835],{}," 小资金买到底部就是运气好，但不要去追求底部。大资金有调配问题，有时买到底部会有点心理障碍。我现在有进步，主要是万科给的教训。（2010-04-14）",[827,1140,1141,1142,1145],{},"网友：对于喜欢的企业，比如",[833,1143,1144],{},"苹果","，有没有估值的天花板？还是根据企业发展动态调整估值？",[827,1147,1148,1150],{},[833,1149,835],{}," 你要万一不小心买到了个好企业的话，你还是赶紧卖了吧，免得天花板乱你的心？（2025-09-25）",[827,1152,1153],{},"网友：段总什么叫定性分析？",[827,1155,1156,1158],{},[833,1157,835],{}," 那你要查查字典了。（2010-04-25）",[827,1160,1161],{},"网友：先定性，再定量－－是说必须先选定企业的好坏也就是好股烂股的情况下，再决定投资的价格和规模吗？",[827,1163,1164,1166],{},[833,1165,835],{}," 完全同意先定性后定量的做法。（2012-01-09）",[827,1168,1169],{},"网友：最近才看到的，不同的公司给自己留的安全边际也不用也样。好的生意模式的企业，确定性高的，（价格上的）安全边际可以留小些。通常也没太多机会留很大的安全边际。可以理解为，生意模式和确定性高也是另一方面的安全边际。否则，不确定性相对高的，（价格上的）安全边际要留更大些。忘了是老巴说的不。",[827,1171,1172,848,1174,1177],{},[833,1173,847],{},[833,1175,1176],{},"可能是我说的。我认为老巴的“安全边际”实际上指的是理解度而不是价格。从10年的角度看，买的时候比最低价贵30%其实没多少"," 。（2013-03-01）",[827,1179,1180,1183],{},[833,1181,1182],{},"我在投资里用定性分析确实比较多，这也是我和华尔街分析家们的区别，不然我怎么有机会啊。"," （2010-03-30）",[827,1185,1186,1187,1190],{},"网友：理解一个公司未来的发展前景，能读懂公司的经营特征，毛估估公司的价值（DCF的思维方式），耐心等待有了足够的安全边际的时候出重拳，",[891,1188,120],{"href":1189},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","。",[827,1192,1193,1196],{},[833,1194,1195],{},"段永平：我很少提安全边际，所谓安全边际指的应该是自己对公司的理解度而不是价钱。"," （2014-08-21）",[827,1198,1199],{},"07．怎么判断股价便不便宜？",[827,1201,1202,1211],{},[833,1203,1204,1205,1207,1208,1210],{},"段永平：还是一个未来",[891,1206,88],{"href":893},"折现的问题。我只买我认为未来",[891,1209,88],{"href":893},"折现大于现价的公司，"," 并不在乎这是否是最好的投资。最好的投资总是可遇不可求的。（2010-5-24）",[827,1213,1214],{},"有很多问题是关于估值的，所以简单谈谈自己的想法。",[827,1216,1217],{},"我个人觉得如果需要计算器按半天才能算出来那么一点利润的投资还是不投的好。",[827,1219,1220],{},[833,1221,1222],{},"我认为估值就是个毛估估的东西，如果要用到计算器才能算出来的便宜就不够便宜了。",[827,1224,1225,1226,1229,1230,1233],{},"好像",[833,1227,1228],{},"芒格","也说过，从来没见",[833,1231,1232],{},"巴菲特","按着计算器去估值一家企业，我好像也没真正用过计算器做估值。",[827,1235,1236,1237,1239,1240,1243],{},"当然，确实也有一些按按计算器就觉得很便宜的时候，比如",[833,1238,1232],{},"买的中石油，我买的",[833,1241,1242],{},"万科","。但这种情况往往是一些特例。",[827,1245,1246,1247,1250],{},"我觉得“模糊的正确”指的就是定性的重要性，或者甚至也可以说是要先",[891,1248,23],{"href":1249},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","。(2018-05-28)",[827,1252,1253],{},"我所谓量的说法都是建立在定性分析上的。从10年或以上的角度看，定量分析很荒唐。(2019-08-21)",[827,1255,1256,1257,1260,1261,1263],{},"定性分析要更准确。比如人们可能很容易知道",[833,1258,1259],{},"茅台","10年后大概能赚多少钱，但无法准确知道10年后的某一年能赚多少，也没必要知道。对",[833,1262,1144],{},"这类公司则更是如此。(2019-08-23)",[827,1265,1266],{},"网友：段大哥认为价值投资和增长（成长性）没必然关系，这点我有些保留。",[827,1268,1269],{},"巴老在评价芒格时毫不吝惜赞美之词，我认为芒格带给巴老的就是关于成长性的启迪……",[827,1271,1272,1274,1275,1278],{},[833,1273,835],{}," 这根本就不是个观点之争，这是个逻辑题啊。给你个反例你就明白了：不增长的公司不等于没价值！比如有家公司一年赚100亿，没",[891,1276,64],{"href":1277},"\u002Ffuzhai","，没增长，年年赚100亿，现在市值100亿，你投吗？投的算不算价值投资？",[827,1280,1281],{},"为快而快总是很危险的。",[827,1283,1284],{},"补充一下：有机会快时快一下倒也无妨。",[827,1286,1287],{},"大家要小心的东西是，一般经济学里讲的速度实际上是物理里的加速度的概念，物理里的速度在经济学里是总量的概念。所以成长速度等于0表示的是物理里的加速度对于0，但经济总量是维持不变的。",[827,1289,1290],{},"给个例子：一个有1000亿净资产的公司每年赚50亿，成长为0；另一个公司有100个亿净资产，今年赚5亿，成长8%\u002F年，请问20年后两公司实力的差距是扩大了还是缩小了？问题是20年后，可能两个公司的成长都变成0了怎么办？",[827,1292,1293,1296],{},[833,1294,1295],{},"段永平：看不懂，“未来几年”的成长率是怎么得出来的？而且还可以准确到13-16%，真是神啊。自己做企业这么多年，从来就没有过“未来几年的营收成长率13-16%”的感觉，所以觉得他们可能是在乱讲。"," （2011-05-28）",[827,1298,1299],{},"网友t：十年赚4000亿 多少钱买合适呢？现在市值2820亿。十年收回成本后赚1180亿，百分四十的收益率好像并不太划算",[827,1301,1302,1304,1305,1307],{},[833,1303,835],{}," 如果没有",[891,1306,64],{"href":1277},"，没有风险，这个价钱确实不错。（2013-03-01）",[827,1309,1310],{},"要是你的“估值”会和公司的每一个产品的推出和定价联系在一起，你早晚会在不赚钱的前提下累趴下的。",[827,1312,1313,1314,1317],{},"网友：我认为",[891,1315,101],{"href":1316},"\u002Fanquanbianji","是重中之重，您怎么看？",[827,1319,1320,1322],{},[833,1321,835],{}," 很重要的东西之一吧。(2010-04-04)",[827,1324,1325,1326,1328],{},"我对",[891,1327,101],{"href":1316},"的理解是对公司的理解度而不是股票短期的价格波动。对一个伟大公司而言，有时候一点点价格差别10年后看都不是事，但因为差那点价格而错过一个好公司就可能是大事了。",[827,1330,1331,1332,1334,1335,1337],{},"其实这个问题我想了很多年，一直没懂",[833,1333,1232],{},"说的",[891,1336,101],{"href":1316},"是什么意思，但自己最后的体会就是这样，不了解的公司再便宜也可能不便宜。(2020-10-15)",[827,1339,1340,1341,1343,1344,1190],{},"“如果你对一家企业及其未来发展了如指掌，那么你所需要的",[891,1342,101],{"href":1316},"就会很小。所以，假设你仍想投资一家较为脆弱的企业，你就需要更大的",[891,1345,101],{"href":1316},[827,1347,1348,1349,1351,1352,1354],{},"就好比你开着一辆卡车通过一座标明限重10000磅的桥，而你的卡车重9800磅，如果桥下只有6英寸深的沟壑，你可能会觉得没问题；但要是这座桥横跨大峡谷，你可能就会觉得需要更大的",[891,1350,101],{"href":1316},"。”(",[833,1353,1232],{},"，1997)",[827,1356,1357,1358,1360],{},"以前没看过",[833,1359,1232],{},"讲的原话，今天偶尔看到，发现跟我的意思一样一样的。(2024-01-21)",[827,1362,1363],{},"网友：投资难在未来风险的不确定性。",[827,1365,1366,1368,1369,1371],{},[833,1367,835],{}," 不确定性是用",[891,1370,101],{"href":1316},"去对付的。(2011-05-09)",[827,1373,1374],{},"网友：想100%的了解一个企业真的是太难了，追求完美的了解那样会不会束缚住自己的手脚？",[827,1376,1377,1379],{},[833,1378,835],{}," 安全边际应该指的就是你自己的了解度，投资里没有数学上100%的东西。",[827,1381,1382],{},"网友：巴菲特语录“安全边际没有例外——",[827,1384,1385],{},"即使对于最好的企业也不能出价过高。”“架设桥梁时，你坚持载重量为3万磅，但你只准许1万磅的卡车穿梭期间。相同的原则也适用于投资领域。”“我们在买入价格上坚持留有一个安全边际。如果我们计算出一只普通股的价值仅仅略高于它的价格。那么我们不会对买入产生兴趣。我们相信这种‘安全边际’原则。",[827,1387,1388],{},"“我们投资部分股权的做法唯有当我们可以用有吸引力的价格买到有吸引力的企业才行得通，同时也需要温和甚至低迷的股票市场来帮助我们实现。”",[827,1390,1391],{},"安全边际的要点在于在能力圈范围内对桥的了解，而不该围着卡车转来转去。",[827,1393,1394,1396],{},[833,1395,847],{}," ：这句话我知道，但我依然认为安全边际指的其实不是眼前的价格，而是对投资标的风险的了解。这里的“风险”指的其实不是市场价格的波动，而是实际生意可能出现的变化。（2011-06-29）",[827,1398,1399],{},"网友：请教段兄：安全边际是否是投资的必要前提？如果估计到某只消费垄断型企业，护城河足够宽，未来盈利稳定且持续增长；只是根据DCF模型测出的价值和目前的价格基本一致，既没有低估，也没有高估，请问你是否会投资？",[827,1401,1402,1404],{},[833,1403,847],{}," ：不会（2010-06-04）",[827,1406,1407],{},"网友：你怎么判断一只股票成长性很好？",[827,1409,1410,1412],{},[833,1411,835],{}," 我不知道如何判断一个公司的成长性，除非我很懂他们的生意。（2010-03-15）",[827,1414,1415],{},"网友：问一个比较直接的问题：对于投资标的，你个人习惯性的安全边际是多大？如果以1元为例，你是4毛买入，还是3毛？或2毛！",[827,1417,1418],{},"我记得之前你在回复一名博友的时候好像说过：我一般认为5年或6年内能收回投资是比较合适的！是你的意思吗？",[827,1420,1421,1423],{},[833,1422,847],{}," ：呵呵，一般是那样想来着。（2010-05-24）",[827,1425,1426],{},"网友：我对价值投资的定义就是买股票就是买公司买真正的有能力的公司，然后高分红，然后低估值的公司",[827,1428,1429],{},"大道：买股票就是买公司，是买公司未来的现金流。目前是不是有分红不是决定因素，因为能长期赚到钱的好公司早晚会把钱分给股东的，可以通过分红也可以通过回购或者同步进行。低估值指的是相对于未来现金流而言的，而不是你目前看到的pe。你要能看懂变化，或者说能看懂趋势的话，你早晚会赚到很多钱的。但如果你只是想从一个弹坑跳到另一个弹坑，你早晚会有苦日子的（写到这里我会想起上甘岭那部电影）。我想很多还在弹坑里呆着的球友们会很理解这句话，你会有很长的时间来理解这句话的。（2026-09-22）",[822,1431,1433],{"id":1432},"第二节-内在价值与价格","第二节 内在价值与价格",[827,1435,1436,1437,1440],{},"网友：",[833,1438,1439],{},"腾讯","未来 5 年内会超过十万亿市值吗？",[827,1442,1443,1445],{},[833,1444,835],{}," 最好不要想市值，集中精力看生意！（2025-10-04）",[827,1447,1448],{},"网友：段总，看生意的话不是应该预估一下大概值多少钱吗？低估就买，高估就不买，为什么不要想市值呢？可以指点一下吗？谢谢您。",[827,1450,1451,1453],{},[833,1452,835],{}," 如果你会的话！猜别人肯出多少钱买你的生意是件很难的事情。（2025-10-05）",[827,1455,1456],{},"网友：请教段总。我现在真不知道什么是价值了。价值是一个公认的概念还是一个自己认为的概念啊？",[827,1458,1459,1461],{},[833,1460,835],{}," 价值不是一个概念，是真实的东西。（2010-08-14）",[827,1463,1464],{},"网友：10块钱的东西1块钱买，难。现价是1块，可是实际价值是多少呢？怎么知道10块。有人算出10块，有人算出5块，有人算出2块，还有人算了1块不到。难是难在认识公司，从而得出大体正确的内在价值。",[827,1466,1467,1469],{},[833,1468,835],{}," 内在价值不是算出来的。（2011-05-09）",[827,1471,1472],{},"网友：怎么定义市场的有效和无效？有人把市场最终一定会反应企业的价值也称为是市场的有效，如此，巴菲特说如果市场是有效的我们这些人都要做乞丐岂不矛盾？",[827,1474,1475,1477],{},[833,1476,847],{}," ：市场短期看是投票器，长期看是称重机。——格雷厄姆（2011-11-15）",[827,1479,1480],{},"网友：有个问题一值不懂。巴菲特老是说内在价值。您能说一下大概怎么样才知道它的内在价值是多少吗？有公式计算的吗？或要彻底了解公司才能知道它的内在价值。",[827,1482,1483,1485,1486],{},[833,1484,835],{}," 所谓",[833,1487,1488],{},"内在价值就是未来利润的折现。",[827,1490,1491],{},"网友：比如说像淘宝以后永远都不上市的话，这类公司的价值是否会打折？",[827,1493,1494,1496],{},[833,1495,835],{}," 价值不会有变化，价格体现出来可能有点滞后而已。如果你用20或30年来看，其实没区别。（2010-03-30）",[827,1498,1499],{},"网友：您认为公司价值会变吗？",[827,1501,1502,1504],{},[833,1503,835],{}," 我个人认为公司的价值是会变的，因为公司是人经营的，而人是会变的，而且环境也一直在变化。不过，不是那种每天都变的速度而已。(2011-01-16)",[827,1506,1507],{},"网友：我有个问题不明白。不懂股票的人都知道一只股票贵得离谱了，为什么还有那个多人抢买这只股票。不明白？我看见有这样一只股票，它以前的十年净收益从来没有超过1.5亿的，但它的市值有100亿。每个人都知道它的前景也是一般般罢了。为什么那么多人去抢它，真的不明白。难道每个人都不懂吗？",[827,1509,1510,1512],{},[833,1511,835],{}," 呵呵，这有啥不明白的，再不明白去趟澳门就什么都明白了。（2010-05-14）",[827,1514,1515],{},"网友：看以前的文章，有朋友谈到价值与价格，好像他们认为价值投资者就不应该过多的谈论价格。我说一下我对价值与价格的认识，欢迎大家指正。",[827,1517,1518],{},"比如我对一家公司的估值是10元，而市场先生的估值是6元，市场先生以6元卖给我，那么6元在形式上就叫价格。",[827,1520,1521,1522,1525],{},"而且我认为市场先生是非常情绪化的，他现在是在情绪低落的阶段，但长远来说，市场先生又是最",[891,1523,222],{"href":1524},"\u002Flixing","的，他一定会意识到他低估了这家公司，会修正它的估值，但在修正的过程中，市场先生又是非常情绪化的，他可能会把估值修正到15元，我把股票卖给市场先生，15元在形式上就是一个价格。这样反反复复，我就成富翁了，当然也有可能是反方向的反反复复，我就成负翁了。",[827,1527,1528],{},"我的这个认识是否正确，请段总指点一下。",[827,1530,1531,1533],{},[833,1532,835],{}," 我说的不看价格指的是不要老盯着盘看，不是买的时候不在乎价格。你说的那个反反复复的游戏我不会，老巴也说他也不太会。所谓会的人经过很多年后大多也不会了。（2010-11-28）",[827,1535,1536],{},"网友：一则有趣的消息：阿里巴巴决定无限期推迟集团子公司上市。拥有很多未上市股权的企业其价值和其股权是否很快会上市没有多大差别。实际上看看伯克希尔股价的长期表现就知道了，巴菲特可是私有化了很多已上市的公司的。",[827,1538,1539,1541,1542,1545],{},[833,1540,835],{}," 没听说他们有计划要上市，不知道为什么叫推迟。我们公司到目前还没有上市，看来也可以被无限期推迟了。",[833,1543,1544],{},"上不上市和内在价值本无关，但经常和价格有关系"," 。（2011-01-28）",[827,1547,1548,1551],{},[833,1549,1550],{},"股票是由每个买家自己“定价”的，到你自己觉得便宜的时候才可以买，实际上和市场(别人)无关","。啥时你能看懂这句话，你的股票生涯基本上就很有机会持续赚钱了。如果看不懂其实也没关系，因为大概85%的人是永远看不懂这句话的，这也是这些人早晚会亏在股市上的根本原因。非常有趣的是，我发现其实大部分从事“投资”行业的“专业”人士其实也不是真的很明白这句话。",[827,1553,1554],{},"(2012-04-14)",[827,1556,1557],{},"网友：在Warren眼里，企业的内在价值和其账面价值也有差别，他更相信其公司的内在价值是超过其账面的价值的。",[827,1559,1560,1562],{},[833,1561,835],{}," 所谓的价值指的就是其内在价值。马克思说得“价格围绕价值上下波动”里的价值指的也是内在价值。（2010-03-03）",[827,1564,1565],{},"网友X：插个话，一般提出这个问题并由这个问题出发去寻求答案就很容易走向著名学者尤金·法马（Eugene Fama）提出的“效率市场假说”，该假说认为股票的价格已经可以反映出一切已经发生了的好坏信息，所以通过任何已知信息都无法预测股价未来的去向（包括巴菲特所作的分析），而股票未来的去向只能由新出现的信息决定。这个假说的信奉者很多，尤其在学术界里这个假说很主流。",[827,1567,1568],{},"巴菲特曾经写了一篇文章《格雷厄姆和多德村的超级投资人》来回应，宣扬该假说的另一位著名学者迈克尔·延森认为巴菲特投资成功的原因完全是运气。",[827,1570,1571,1574,1575],{},[833,1572,1573],{},"段永平：我是非常相信“市场有效论”的，但市场的有效不是及时的--或者叫--sooner or later",". ",[833,1576,1577],{},"这话的意思是市场早晚会反映价值，所以是有效的。",[827,1579,1580,1583],{},[833,1581,1582],{},"市场有效论是说市场会随时反映价值，我说的的早晚，这是一句调侃的话（意思就是不会随时反映但早晚会）"," 。（2010-03-11）",[827,1585,1586,1589],{},[833,1587,1588],{},"巴菲特："," 如果市场总是有效的，我只会成为一个在大街上手拎马口铁罐的流浪汉。",[827,1591,1592],{},"网友：请问你所指的价值是净值还是某个时期的市值？",[827,1594,1595,1597],{},[833,1596,835],{}," 价值应该是现在的净值加上未来利润总和的折现。（2010-03-23）",[827,1599,1600],{},"网友：看了一篇文章《价值投资之谜的解答》，请老段回答一下这些问题。",[827,1602,1603,1605,1606,1609],{},[833,1604,835],{}," 作者没搞清什么是价格什么是价值。",[833,1607,1608],{},"价值是和市场无关的东西，但价值的实现确实可以通过价格（但也不一定是股票的市场价格，不然非上市企业岂不是没有价值了？）。"," （2010-11-20）",[827,1611,1612],{},"网友：企业的价值和市场价格确实无关。但是你要买或者说是投资这个企业是和市场价格有关的。这就是投资者和经营者区别吧。段总您说可以这样理解吗？",[827,1614,1615,1617],{},[833,1616,835],{}," 不是很明白你说的是什么。企业价值当然和价格是有关的，价格是围绕价值上下波动的。投资者和经营者的区别只是在谁具体经营企业上。如果投资者不喜欢或不信任经营者就不会成为其投资者，不然就有点乱了。（2010-11-23）",[827,1619,1620],{},"网友：同一家公司，你买A股还是B股？从估值的角度看，肯定是B股更有吸引力。同家公司B股股价相对A股股价一般有40%-70%的折让。那么是该买B股无疑了么？",[827,1622,1623,1625],{},[833,1624,835],{}," 在同股同权的前提下，中国AB股的差异是由外币不自由流通造成的。BRK的ab股是可以单向自由兑换的，就是A股可以无条件换成B股，但不可以逆向。从投资的角度看，如果你真打算买一只股票（公司）拿10年，你绝不会去多付30-40%，除非脑袋坏了。",[827,1627,1628],{},"但是，中国AB股的情况有点复杂，主要是外汇兑换不能自由流通造成的，尤其是现阶段很多人能看到rmb有对外升值压力的大背景下。无论如何，不要以AB股的差价多少来判断是否买，因为有可能AB股都高估了，只是某一边高估的少点而已。（2011-11-05）",[827,1630,1631],{},"网友：我去过几次股东大会，分别问过董事长、总经理、董秘，他们都说自己公司的价格被低估了。",[827,1633,1634,1636],{},[833,1635,835],{}," 大概所有公司的人都会对外说自己的股票被低估了吧？问完之后你感觉好点几了吗？(2012-02-13)",[827,1638,1639],{},"网友H：一个问题请教。市场上还真的有bargain可以很容易的找得到吗？价值投资已经被无数人研究过了。Benjamin和Buffett的方法也被无数的学者反复用大量的数据研究过了。",[827,1641,1642,1644],{},[833,1643,847],{}," ：呵呵，好像和40-50年前没区别。",[827,1646,1647],{},"网友H：Buffett写那篇文章的学术界没有人研究价值投资。现在呢，学术界关于价值投资的论文几百几千篇的。大把大把的。value stock outperform growth stock已经成为共识。这些商学院的学生毕业之后去各种机构做职业投资者。现在的情况和以前的完全不一样了吧。",[827,1649,1650,1652],{},[833,1651,847],{}," ：呵呵，多数研究的人都是想找到公式，可这里没有公式。bargain从来都有，但从来就不是容易找到的。",[827,1654,1655,1658],{},[833,1656,1657],{},"段永平：其实市场确实在很多时候是很有效的。但市场一定会有胡来的时候"," 。（2 012-07-28）",[827,1660,1661,1662,1664],{},"网友：大道我有一个问题有点不明白：一个能持续产生",[891,1663,88],{"href":893},"的好公司需要上市吗？",[827,1666,1667,1669],{},[833,1668,835],{}," 很多公司是在上市后才成为好公司的。如果没上市，可能开始阶段没足够的资金起来，这也是为什么会有上市的原因。当然，也有很多公司是成为好公司后才上市的（比如google），因为上市同时也是退出机制，早期的投资者可以通过上市选择部分或全部退出。不同的投资者经常会对投资目标有不同的期许。（2013-04-09）",[827,1671,1672,1673,1675],{},"网友：段大哥您不是经常教我们企业的价值就等于其未来",[891,1674,88],{"href":893},"折现吗？是不是企业基本上不存在价值这两个字。或者价值是根本估不出的？",[827,1677,1678,1680],{},[833,1679,835],{}," 你说的是价格，我觉得一般人们常说的“估值”多数指的也是估价格。",[827,1682,1683,1684,1686,1687,1692],{},"企业价值就是其未来",[891,1685,88],{"href":893},"的折现不知道算不算我说的，也许别的人或书里也说过？老巴其实好像也有过类似的说法。我觉得",[833,1688,1683,1689,1691],{},[891,1690,88],{"href":893},"折现应该成为定义才行"," ，不然实在想不出如何定义企业价值。（2011-09-06）",[827,1694,1695,1696,1047],{},"网友：“内在价值”教课书上的定义：",[833,1697,1698,1699,1701],{},"公司价值等于公司存续期内每年创造的净",[891,1700,88],{"href":893},"的贴现值之和",[827,1703,1704,1706,1707,1710],{},[833,1705,835],{}," 呵呵，其实教科书上可能就这句话最重要，但实际上看完教科书的人大部分在大多数时候是想不起这句话的。",[833,1708,1709],{},"我觉得最好的教科书可能这句话就够了"," ，可这书怎么卖钱呢？（2012-04-05）",[827,1712,1713,1714],{},"内在价值是一个非常重要的概念，它为评估投资和企业的相对吸引力提供了唯一的逻辑手段。",[833,1715,1716],{},"内在价值的定义很简单：它是一家企业在其餘下的寿命史中可以产生的现金的折现值。",[827,1718,1719,1720,1723,1724],{},"追随格雷厄姆的教诲，查理跟我着眼的是投资组合本身的经营成果，以此来判断投资是否成功，而不是他们每天或是每年的股价变化，",[833,1721,1722],{},"短期间市场或许会忽略一家经营成功的企业，但最后这些公司终将获得市场的肯定，"," 就像格雷厄姆所说的：",[833,1725,1726],{},"“短期而言，股票市场是一个投票机，但长期来说，它却是一个称重器。",[827,1728,1729,1732],{},[833,1730,1731],{},"”一家成功的公司是否很快地就被发现并不是重点，重要的是只要这家公司的内在价值能够以稳定地速度成长才是关键，"," 事实上越晚被发现有时好处更多，因为我们就有更多的机会以便宜的价格买进它的股份。（1987）",[827,1734,1735,1738,1739,1742],{},[833,1736,1737],{},"所以你只要市场足够长期，它一定会回归事物的本源。但是多长没有人知道。但是我的经验是，好像在我的经验当中没有超过三年。"," 我看过沃伦巴菲特，就是我没有看到他原文说，我这次也忘了问他。有人跟我讲说他曾经说过是四年，说四年什么意思？",[833,1740,1741],{},"我的理解是以他的投资经历，他没有见过超过四年。"," 不是说有一个理论数据，以我的投资经历我没有见过超过三年，对吧？",[827,1744,1745,1746],{},"那么就这样一个概念，它不等于说三年是一个合理的数字，其实只是一个自己的见闻的概念，就是",[833,1747,1748],{},"我任何一个投资，我认为它有价值的股票大概不到三年，它都反映出它的价值，或者倒过来也一样，我认为没有价值的股票或者有大问题的公司，我认为它超值（高估）了，大部分可能三年四年它也就回归它的本源了。（2007-05-23）",[827,1750,1751],{},"网友：资产价格围绕价值波动。我一直在想是什么原因，造成资产价格围绕价值波动呢？",[827,1753,1754,1756,1757,1763],{},[833,1755,835],{}," 其实供求决定价格在每个时点都是对的，但用这个结论去投资却经常是错的。",[833,1758,1759,1760,1762],{},"价格围绕价值上下波动，所以价格是由价值决定的。所谓的资产的价值取决于其能够产生的未来（净）",[891,1761,88],{"href":893},"。这一点就是所谓价值投资里的“you must believe”的唯一的一点，关键时刻往往很管用。不是骨子里信这点的人其实都还不是真的“价值”投资者。","（2013-02-01）",[822,1765,1767],{"id":1766},"第三节-未来现金流折现一种思维方式","第三节 未来现金流折现：一种思维方式",[827,1769,1770],{},"网友：巴菲特几十年来一直说DCF是唯一合乎逻辑的估值方法。这个方法用计算器也多半算不清楚，但不用计算器多半就更算不清楚了。有人问巴菲特为何5分钟就可以估值报价，答曰：为这5分钟我准备了50年！",[827,1772,1773,1775],{},[833,1774,847],{}," ：dcf是什么？（2010-04-26）",[827,1777,1778,1779],{},"网友：在伯克希尔·哈撒韦2009年年度股东大会上，",[833,1780,1781,1782,1784],{},"一位来自密苏里州圣路易市的股东问10年期",[891,1783,88],{"href":893},"折现模型，我们看巴菲特和芒格是如何回答这个问题的：",[827,1786,1787],{},"巴菲特：所有的投资都是现在付出现金，未来收回得更多。“一鸟在手”这个理念来自于大约公元前600年的伊索，他懂得很多东西，但他不知道当时自己生活在公元前600年，不可能知道一切（笑声）。问题是林子里有多少只鸟？折现率是多少？你对捕得这些鸟的信心有多大？等等。我们做的事情就是这些，如果你必须通过电脑或者计算器才能解决这些问题，就不应该介入这项投资。",[827,1789,1790],{},"这样的投资属于“太难”的类型，我们应该买入那些显而易见的投资，这些投资的吸引力不使用电脑也能清楚地发现。",[827,1792,1793],{},"芒格：我有些最糟糕的商业决策就是因为详细的分析造成的，高深的数学是错误的精确。商学院就是这么做的，因为他们必须做些事情。",[827,1795,1796],{},"巴菲特：祭司必须得让自己看起来比懂得“一鸟在手”更多。错误的精确是疯狂的，1998年的长期资本管理公司危机让市场看到了这一点，这种事情只会发生在那些高智商的人身上。去年9月中旬的市场如此动荡，以至于你不能计算标准差。人们的行为不遵循数学法则，认为不需要理解的高深数学将带领你前进的想法是严重的错误，它可能会让你误入歧途。",[827,1798,1799,1800,1802],{},"这段问答对我们理解未来",[891,1801,88],{"href":893},"折现值“不是计算的结果而是一种思维模式”应该很有帮助。",[827,1804,1805,1807],{},[833,1806,847],{}," ：（憨笑）（2010-05-26）",[827,1809,1810,1813],{},[833,1811,1812],{},"芒格："," “Warren talks about these discounted cash flows ... I've never seen him do one.“ Warren E.",[827,1815,1816],{},"Buffett： “It’s true.If it doesn't scream out at you，it's too close.” –（Munger\u002FBuffett responding to a shareholder question at the 1996 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha，Nebraska）2011-03-08",[827,1818,1819],{},"网友：对于Munger的这句话，有没有可能是Buffett自己在脑海里面已经做了discounted cash flow的计算呢？",[827,1821,1822,1823,1825,1826,1828],{},"当然，Buffett买的很多公司都是未来",[891,1824,88],{"href":893},"很清晰，而且每年的增长都是稳定的，例如，这家公司今年自由",[891,1827,88],{"href":893},"是1块，未来的增长估计和GDP同步（或者高一些），那么Buffett大概一看就知道了。是不是这样呢？",[827,1830,1831,1833],{},[833,1832,835],{}," 我的理解是不用计算器就很容易算清楚的那种。巴菲特举过一个例子，大意是：当他见到姚明走进来时，不需要拿尺子量就知道他很高了。芒格的意思大概是：从来没见过巴菲特用尺子量姚明的身高。（2011-03-08）",[827,1835,1836,1837,1839],{},"网友：请问大道，巴菲特计算内在价值用的是股权自由",[891,1838,88],{"href":893},"折现吗？折现率怎么把握？",[827,1841,1842,848,1844,1847],{},[833,1843,847],{},[833,1845,1846],{},"那只是个思维方式。芒格说他从来没见巴菲特算过。我其实也没认真算过，从来都是毛估估的。姚明往那里一站，谁都能看出来他比我重，难道还要用磅秤后才知道？"," （2019-3-20）",[827,1849,1850,1851,1853],{},"网友：“毛估估”不是谁都可以估的，要把",[891,1852,88],{"href":893},"公式搞懂学透了才能估。我们搞工科的总想把公式翻来覆去搞透了才放心。",[827,1855,1856,1858,1859,1861,1862,1868,1869,1871],{},[833,1857,847],{}," ：我从来没看过",[891,1860,88],{"href":893},"公式。",[833,1863,1864,1865,1867],{},"我一直在讲未来",[891,1866,88],{"href":893},"折现是个思路，不需要公式。老巴也不用这个公式的"," 。希望以后不会再有人在这里提",[891,1870,88],{"href":893},"折现的公式了，有点见到祥林嫂的感觉。（2010-12-14）",[827,1873,1874,1876],{},[833,1875,835],{}," 哦，老巴也这么说！所以，告诉你有公式可以算出公司价值的人都是蒙人的。（2012-07-28）",[827,1878,1879,1880,1882],{},"网友：请问阿段，企业价值是未来",[891,1881,88],{"href":893},"折现。这未来的玩意有点模糊。",[827,1884,1885],{},"通俗的讲，假设先不谈折现率。假设我确切的知道这个企业的未来。企业的价值＝股东权益＋未来20年净利润之和。然后再进行折现。请指教。",[827,1887,1888,1890],{},[833,1889,847],{}," ：大概就是这个意思吧，毛估估算下就行。这种算法其实把成长性也算在内了，如果你能看出其成长性的话（这部分有点难）。（2010-04-24）",[827,1892,1893,1894,1896],{},"网友：未来",[891,1895,88],{"href":893},"折现我暂且理解为：未来利润折现，这样容易和我原来的毛估估思维接轨，有否大错？",[827,1898,1899,1901],{},[833,1900,847],{}," ：没什么错，但利润必须是真实的利润。（2010-05-27）",[827,1903,1904],{},"网友：这个应该就是“精确的错误”的典型。做这工具的大概率不知道自己在做啥。",[827,1906,1907,1909,1910,1912],{},[833,1908,835],{}," DCF模型很好啊，帮助你理解企业的未来",[891,1911,88],{"href":893},"的量化，但变量太多，不如毛估估准。(2025-09-26)",[827,1914,1915,1917],{},[833,1916,835],{}," 沃伦巴菲特说，你买一只股票的时候，其实就是相当于你在买这个企业或者买它企业的一部分。",[827,1919,1920],{},"那么这个企业所谓的价值其实就是它折现的这个价值，就是你把整个企业它的这个整个生命算下来他们总共能够值多少钱，你把它折现到今天，考虑到利息、复利，如果你现在买的价格是低过它的价值的，你就可以买，其实这个其实挺简单的，但是你要去找到它的价值是一件非常困难的事情，所以简单的东西不等于容易，我一说简单很多人就会有一个误解，说你是说他容易，我说我不，我告诉你这个东西非常难，但是它很简单，就这么一点点事情，你要搞懂他，大部分人在投资的时候呢，并不试图去了解企业，来看图看线对吧？",[827,1922,1923],{},"容易受价格的影响，我觉得在这个地方，巴菲特给我的启示是非常大的，早期我也是一样，因为人都是凡人，那这个很容易受到这个外在的东西影响，那么看了他东西以后觉得有时候你就必须要坚持。（2007-12-03）",[827,1925,1926],{},"这里说的信仰不是形而上的东西。",[827,1928,1929,1930,1932,1935],{},"我理解的投资归纳起来就是：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司的未来",[891,1931,88],{"href":893},[891,1933,97],{"href":1934},"\u002Fzhexian","，句号！",[827,1937,1938],{},"这就是我说的所谓信仰的意思，我是从骨子里相信，不会因为任何影响而动摇。",[827,1940,1941],{},"很多人一讲到投资就会马上冒出很多大家都似懂非懂的术语，大概就是因为没有这个信仰。",[827,1943,1944,1945,1948],{},"其实投资就是",[891,1946,58],{"href":1947},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","的意思，不然投资投的是啥？",[827,1950,1951,1952,1954,1955,1190],{},"公司价值是什么？就是公司未来",[891,1953,88],{"href":893},"的",[891,1956,97],{"href":1934},[827,1958,1959],{},"未来是多久？就是直到永远的意思。",[827,1961,1962],{},"永远是多久？就是到公司结束为止。",[827,1964,1965],{},"公司结束是什么意思？就是包括卖掉在内的所有可能。",[827,1967,1968],{},"记得马克思说过：价格围绕价值上下波动。买股票花的是价格，买的是价值。",[827,1970,1971],{},"其实我对投资的理解就这些，其他都是这几句话衍生出来的。",[827,1973,1974,1975,1977,1978,1981,1982,1984,1986],{},"简单不？对，简单但绝不容易！不懂企业的人绝对没办法看懂未来",[891,1976,88],{"href":893},"。所谓懂的人往往也只能看懂自己",[891,1979,33],{"href":1980},"\u002Fnengliquan","内的很少很少企业的未来",[891,1983,88],{"href":893},[891,1985,97],{"href":1934},"，而且还一定是毛估估滴。",[827,1988,1989],{},"学会简单其实就不简单---微博里看到的一句话，和我的简单但绝不容易的意思差不多。",[827,1991,1992,1993,1995,1997,1998,2008],{},"未来",[891,1994,88],{"href":893},[891,1996,97],{"href":1934},"的公式？",[833,1999,1992,2000,2002,2004,2005,2007],{},[891,2001,88],{"href":893},[891,2003,97],{"href":1934},"只是一种思维方式，只有在自己",[891,2006,33],{"href":1980},"范围内的公司，投资人才能毛估估看明白","。没人真用公式的，至少胜者都是不用公式的。(说自己有公式还有参数的人们都是不懂甚至可能是骗人的，别理他们。)",[827,2010,2011],{},"很难吗？还好吧。我自己从事企业经营只有10多年，之后开始投资到现在也差不多10年。在这10年里有兴趣的企业中，我大致看懂了不到10家(被排除的不算，投错的不算)，重手投了5家，差不多两年一家，没想象的那么难吧？",[827,2013,2014],{},"什么，你投的企业比我多多了？那你要小心了，一般而言，超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚得越少。",[827,2016,2017,2018,2020],{},"怎么才能看懂企业或者叫看懂企业的未来",[891,2019,88],{"href":893},"?",[827,2022,2023,2024,2026,2027,2029,2030,2032],{},"有句话叫八仙过海，各显神通。不过我喜欢",[833,2025,1232],{},"说的那个办法，从来没看过别人的，也没有兴趣看。我觉得真看懂了",[833,2028,1232],{},"的人大概是不会对别人的投资办法感兴趣的，觉得我武断的人请先看懂",[833,2031,1232],{},"哈。",[827,2034,2035,2036,2038,2039,2042,2043,2045,2046,2048,2049,2051,2052,2055,2056,2059],{},"说自己一半",[833,2037,1232],{},"一半",[833,2040,2041],{},"索罗斯","的意思实际上是说自己既不懂",[833,2044,1232],{},"也不懂",[833,2047,2041],{},"。(这句话和",[833,2050,1232],{},"说的15%",[833,2053,2054],{},"费雪","85%",[833,2057,2058],{},"格雷厄姆","的意思不同。)",[827,2061,2062],{},"投钱(我觉得这里不叫投资为好)的办法有很多，一般而言，知道得越多，赚得越少。不然大学教这个的就应该赚得最多。",[827,2064,2065,2068,2069,2071,2072,2074],{},[833,2066,2067],{},"巴菲特说生意模式最重要","。我自己大概对这句话想了好几年了，还在继续想，但确实越来越感觉到",[833,2070,1232],{},"这个说法有道理。和",[833,2073,1232],{},"吃顿饭没白吃，这句话就已经值个100顿饭了吧？(其实远远不止哈。)",[827,2076,2077,2078,2081],{},"什么是",[833,2079,2080],{},"生意模式","?我也说不清楚，也许大学里的教授能给个文点的定义吧。但是，我觉得我大致知道那到底是什么意思。",[827,2083,2084,2085,2087,2088,2090],{},"如果你还不明白什么叫",[833,2086,2080],{},"的话，那就看看",[833,2089,1232],{},"那几篇在几个大学的演讲。",[827,2092,2093,2094,2097,2098,2101,2102,2104],{},"还没懂？那看看",[833,2095,2096],{},"喜诗糖果","、",[833,2099,2100],{},"可口可乐","、比亚迪、",[833,2103,1144],{},"，看看航空公司，看看那些做太阳能晶片的“光伏企业”……",[827,2106,2107],{},"还没懂？那重头来，接着再看。10到20年之内看不懂都可以用这个办法，就是“重头来，接着再看”。",[827,2109,2110],{},"20年以后还是看不懂怎么办？那20年以后再说了。",[827,2112,2113,2114,2116,2117,2119,2120,2122,2123,2125],{},"我从看到",[833,2115,1232],{},"的第一分钟起就开始相信",[833,2118,1232],{},"了，从来没动摇过。心中没有",[833,2121,1232],{},"的人是很难相信",[833,2124,1232],{},"的，而且谁说都没用。",[827,2127,2128,2129,2132,2133,1190],{},"其实每个人都有一颗",[891,2130,125],{"href":2131},"\u002Ftouji","的心，所以才需要信仰。我",[833,2134,2135,2136,2138],{},"对信仰的理解就是“",[891,2137,23],{"href":1249},"”，或者说知道是“不对的事情”就别做了。人们热爱做“不对的事情”是因为这类事情往往有短期诱惑",[827,2140,2141,2142,2144,2145,2148,2149,2152],{},"要相信的是：",[891,2143,23],{"href":1249},"最后会有好结果，或者说做错的事情最后会有大麻烦。至于",[891,2146,28],{"href":2147},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","则是个过程，有时候快有时候慢，需要投资者",[891,2150,197],{"href":2151},"\u002Fnaixin","等待。",[827,2154,2155],{},"投资的信仰指的是：相信长期而言股市是称重机。对没有信仰的人而言，股市永远是投票器。",[827,2157,2158],{},"网友：段大哥：我感觉每个企业都不太靠铺，又好像谁都有可能胜出。所以我现在基本上只找烟屁股头。这样好不好啊？",[827,2160,2161,2163,2164,2166],{},[833,2162,835],{}," 呵呵，价值投资的初级阶段都这样，老巴也有过。搞懂未来",[891,2165,88],{"href":893},"（折现）的概念后就可以进入高级阶段，但似懂非懂的则会退回到0级阶段。（2011-03-22）",[827,2168,2169,2170,2172],{},"网友y：那买公司就是买未来",[891,2171,88],{"href":893},"折现是您补充说明的吗？",[827,2174,2175,2177,2178,2180],{},[833,2176,835],{}," 老巴应该也说过类似的话。买公司如果不是买未来",[891,2179,88],{"href":893},"的话，那买的是什么呢？假设如果你买的不是上市公司的话就容易理解了。（2012-05-01）",[827,2182,2183,2184,2186],{},"网友：大概是因为不少人没有真正的拥有过公司，中国股市的参与者，也比较少地享受股东的待遇，所以还不习惯站在股东的立场上看问题。换句话说，还没有进入，“买股票就是买公司，就是买未来",[891,2185,88],{"href":893},"”的思维。",[827,2188,2189,2191,2192,2194,2195,2197],{},[833,2190,835],{}," 非常有趣的是，如果人们不是买“未来",[891,2193,88],{"href":893},"”的话，那他们到底买的是什么呢？不是买“未来",[891,2196,88],{"href":893},"”的实际上很可能是在加入一个零和游戏中，大家互为猎手和猎物，比的就是“技术”了，而且“高手”也可能随时被“菜鸟”从后面干掉的。",[827,2199,2200],{},"网友：价值投资本身就没有什么好学的，重在悟。有些东西是学不会的！",[827,2202,2203],{},[833,2204,2205,2206,2208],{},"段永平：“价值投资”的原则没什么好学的这句话我同意。说来说去就一句话：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来（净）",[891,2207,88],{"href":893},"（折现）。不过，理解公司长期的发展确实不是一件容易的事情。所以大部分人最后在股市上赚不到钱是非常合理的。（2014-08-18）",[827,2210,2211],{},"网友X：有时间能开一篇您对迷信和信仰的个人经验和故事？特别想听听您的这些小故事。",[827,2213,2214,2216,2217,2219],{},[833,2215,835],{}," 我说的信仰就是你骨子里真的相信的东西，是不会被某些事情动摇的。比如长期利润及净",[891,2218,88],{"href":893},"好的公司股价早晚会跟上来等等。（2017-02-27）",[827,2221,2222,2223,2225],{},"公司价值取决于公司生命周期里的总盈利的",[891,2224,97],{"href":1934},"。好公司生命力强，一般会活得好且长。股市长期来说就是称重器，早晚会体现公司价值的。",[827,2227,2228],{},"网友：怎么才算搞懂了一家企业？",[827,2230,2231,2233,2234,2236],{},[833,2232,835],{}," 我个人理解：从投资的角度看就是你能对其未来",[891,2235,88],{"href":893},"有个大致概念（至少能赚多少钱的意思）的时候。（2010-05-26）",[827,2238,2239,2245],{},[833,2240,2241,2242,2244],{},"段永平：“能力圈”的意思就是你能够判断未来",[891,2243,88],{"href":893},"折现的范围。"," 知道自己的“能力圈”有多大比“能力圈”本身有多大要重要的多。（2011-01-04）",[827,2247,2248],{},"网友：我看您在前面说过你现在看懂了巴老为什么买中石油。我也看过他的访谈，理由是他算了下中石油值1000亿，但市值只有300亿，所以就买了。段大哥能讲下你看懂的东西吗？",[827,2250,2251,2257],{},[833,2252,2253,2254,2256],{},"段永平：所谓看懂了的意思就是认同其未来自由",[891,2255,88],{"href":893},"折现远大于当时的市值"," 。不知道现在中石油的情况。（2011-01-19）",[827,2259,2260],{},"网友：怎么样确认自己已经看懂了一家公司．有些公司我自己认为自己挺懂的，就是不敢确定．",[827,2262,2263,2269],{},[833,2264,2265,2266,2268],{},"段永平：我自己的所谓能看懂就是认为自己大概能看懂其商业模式及未来的",[891,2267,88],{"href":893},"（折现）"," 。（2011-03-01）",[827,2271,2272,2273,2275],{},"网友：未来自由",[891,2274,88],{"href":893},"折现；未来就是永远，如果非要给“永远”加上一个期限，我希望是12年！段总说过，懂的意思并不是看到未来一切的“水晶球”，能看到一些重要的东西就不错了！",[827,2277,2278,2280],{},[833,2279,835],{}," 永远指的是企业的“生命周期”。在逻辑上不是很明白为什么很多人不明白“永远”的意思。从看企业的角度，其实没人可以看到一个好企业的“永远”，但看到一个不好的生意的“永远”要容易的多。另外，对一个好企业而言，如果你看不到企业的20年，但如果能毛估估看懂5年，觉得5年内就能赚回投资并且企业还会继续很好的话，这就是一个不错的投资了。",[827,2282,2283],{},"我买苹果的时候看到的就是这种情况，对不对到时候就知道了。（2012-06-28）",[827,2285,2286,2287,2289],{},"网友：请问大道：投资中的“平常心”是不是判断事物的时候，要客观",[891,2288,222],{"href":1524},"，完全没有感性成分。只有对事物的透彻理解。理解了，心态自然就好了。（无论成败）不知这是否就是“平常心”？",[827,2291,2292,2294,2295,2297,2298,2300,2301,2303],{},[833,2293,835],{}," 差不多吧。“平常心”简单讲就是回到事物的本源，知道什么是“事物的本源”不是件容易的事。比如投资，买的就是公司未来的净",[891,2296,88],{"href":893},"，别的都是没关系的。但要搞明白公司未来的净",[891,2299,88],{"href":893},"是件非常困难的事情。在搞不清公司未来",[891,2302,88],{"href":893},"的前提下的投资买的到底是什么呢？",[827,2305,2306,2307,2309,2310,2312],{},"在搞不清公司未来净",[891,2308,88],{"href":893},"的情况下的“投资”多数情况下会变成",[891,2311,125],{"href":2131},"。所以投资是简单但很难的事情，因为每个人能搞懂的公司非常少，尤其是在这个变化很快的世界里。搞不懂的公司怎么办？别碰就是了。什么叫“懂了”？当你“懂了”的时候你就懂了。（2013-03-28）",[827,2314,2315],{},"网友：最近看了《穷查理宝典》，提到最佳的投资方式是以公平的价格买入伟大公司并持有。伟大的公司是等待市场定错价时再买入呢，还是见到公平价格就可买入？",[827,2317,2318,2320,2321,2323,2325],{},[833,2319,835],{}," 你一旦真的明白了什么是未来",[891,2322,88],{"href":893},[891,2324,97],{"href":1934},"，就可以解答你的问题。(2015-06-07)",[827,2327,2328,2329,2332],{},"网友：最近又看了穷查理宝典中芒格的演讲，其中关于股市本质，芒格喜欢用赌场的投注系统来比喻，当市场定错价时下重注。又提到最佳的投资方式是以公平的价格买入伟大公司并持有。对于伟大的公司是等待市场定错价时再买入呢，还是见到公平价格就可买入，这里公平价格怎样去定量，是不是只跟自己的",[891,2330,115],{"href":2331},"\u002Fjihuichengben","相关？",[827,2334,2335,2320,2337,2339],{},[833,2336,835],{},[891,2338,88],{"href":893},"折现，你就可以解答你的问题。（2015-06-07）",[827,2341,2342],{},"网友：巴菲特卖IBM，买入苹果，巴老到底是看到了什么本质？",[827,2344,2345,2347,2348,2350,2351,2353,2354,2356],{},[833,2346,835],{}," ",[891,2349,88],{"href":893},"，现在的",[891,2352,88],{"href":893},"和未来的",[891,2355,88],{"href":893},"。（2018-09）",[827,2358,2359,2360,2362,2364,2365,2367,2368,2370],{},"买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来",[891,2361,88],{"href":893},[891,2363,97],{"href":1934},"。这里",[891,2366,88],{"href":893},"指的是净",[891,2369,88],{"href":893},"，未来指的是公司的整个生命周期，不是3年，也不是5年。",[827,2372,2373,2375,2376,2378,2379,2381],{},[891,2374,97],{"href":1934},"率实际上是相对于投资人的",[891,2377,115],{"href":2331},"而言的。最低的",[891,2380,115],{"href":2331},"就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。有些人把自己生意中有限的资金投到股市里实际上往往是不合算的，因为其自己的生意获利往往比股市的平均回报高。当然，多余资金投入无可非议。",[827,2383,2384,2385,2387],{},"(听说国内某网络公司买了很多",[833,2386,1144],{},"的股票，这属于无可非议型的。)可我确实看到不少公司贷着款还要买股票，看不懂啊。",[827,2389,2390,2391,2393,2395,2396,2398,2399],{},"所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来",[891,2392,88],{"href":893},[891,2394,97],{"href":1934},"(",[891,2397,23],{"href":1249},")。",[833,2400,2401,2402,2404,2406],{},"所谓未来",[891,2403,88],{"href":893},[891,2405,97],{"href":1934},"只是个思维方式，千万不要去套公式，因为没人可以真的确定公式中的变量，所有假设可能都是不靠谱的。",[827,2408,2409,2410,2412,2413,2415,1190],{},"个人观点：其实区分是不是“",[891,2411,58],{"href":1947},"”的最重要、也许是唯一的点，就是“投资者”是不是在买未来",[891,2414,88],{"href":893},[891,2416,97],{"href":1934},[827,2418,2419,2420,2422],{},"事实上我的确见到很多人买股票的理由很多时候都和未来",[891,2421,88],{"href":893},"无关，但却和别的东西有关，比如市场怎么看，比如打新股一定赚钱，比如重组的概念，比如……呵呵，电视里那些个分析员天天在讲的那些东西。我有时会面带微笑看看CNBC的节目，那些主持人经常满嘴说着专业名词，但不知道为什么他们说了这么多年也不知道自己在说啥。",[827,2424,2425,2426,2428,2429,2431,2432,2097,2434,2097,2437,2439,2440,2442,2443,1190],{},"所有有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂",[891,2427,88],{"href":893},"的问题(如何",[891,2430,28],{"href":2147},")，比如",[833,2433,2080],{},[891,2435,74],{"href":2436},"\u002Fhuchenghe",[891,2438,33],{"href":1980},"，等等。在",[833,2441,1232],{},"这里我学到的最重要的东西就是",[833,2444,2080],{},[827,2446,2447,2448,2450,2451,2453,2454,2456],{},"以前虽然也知道",[833,2449,2080],{},"重要，但往往是和其他很多重要的东西混在一起看的。当年",[833,2452,1232],{},"特别提醒我，应该首先看",[833,2455,2080],{},"，这几年下来慢慢觉得确实应该如此。",[827,2458,2459,2461,2462,2464,2465,2467,2468,1190],{},[891,2460,74],{"href":2436},"实际上我觉得是",[833,2463,2080],{},"的一部分，好的",[833,2466,2080],{},"往往具有很宽的",[891,2469,74],{"href":2436},[827,2471,2472,2473,2475,2476,2478],{},"好的",[833,2474,2080],{},"往往是好的未来",[891,2477,88],{"href":893},"的保障。",[827,2480,2481,2482,2484,2485,2487],{},"知道自己的",[891,2483,33],{"href":1980},"有多大，往往比自己",[891,2486,33],{"href":1980},"有多大要重要得多！",[827,2489,2490,2491,2493,2494,2496],{},"我觉得",[891,2492,101],{"href":1316},"实际上应该指的是",[891,2495,33],{"href":1980},"而不仅仅是价格。",[827,2498,2499,2500,2502,2503,2505],{},"在自己",[891,2501,33],{"href":1980},"内的生意自己往往容易懂得多，对别人的不确定性往往对自己是很确定的。比如当年我投",[833,2504,596],{},"时，市场不看好的原因是很多人觉得游戏这个市场不是很大。而我自己由于在这个行业里的时间很长，所以很确定这个市场非常大(但也不知道到底有多大，事实上最后的结果比我看到的还要大)。",[827,2507,2508,2509,2511],{},"不要轻易去“扩大”自己的",[891,2510,33],{"href":1980},"。搞懂一个生意往往是需要很多年的，不要因为看到一两个概念就轻易跳进自己不熟悉的领域或地方，不然早晚会栽的。比如有的朋友跳进印度市场，有的朋友跳进日本市场。",[827,2513,2514,2515,2517],{},"我总是假设市场绝大多数情况下是非常聪明的，除非我发现市场确实错了。(这句话是针对“逆向操作”说的。逆向思维很重要，但逆向操作和随波逐流都是不可取的。最重要的是",[891,2516,222],{"href":1524},"的独立思考能力。)",[827,2519,2520,2521,2523,2524,2526,2527,2529],{},"很多人说很难看懂未来",[891,2522,88],{"href":893},"。其实绝大多数公司的未来",[891,2525,88],{"href":893},"我也是看不懂的。看不懂的就不碰。一年两年或许更久的时间里总会有目标出现的。有些公司的",[833,2528,2080],{},"很好，但股价有时候太贵，那就只能等了。好在这些年来一直如此，每隔些年就来个股灾，往往那时好公司也会跟着稀里哗啦的。",[827,2531,2532],{},"对于大多数不太了解生意的人而言，千万不要以为股市是个可以赚快钱的地方。长期来讲，股市上亏钱的人总是多过赚钱的人的。想赌运气的人还不如去买彩票，起码自己知道中的机会小，不会下重注。",[827,2534,2535],{},"也有人说股场就是赌场。事实上，对把股场当赌场的人们而言，股场确实就是赌场，常赌必输！",[827,2537,2538],{},"用我这个办法投资，一生可能会失去无数机会，但犯大错的机会也很少(但依然没办法避免犯错)。",[827,2540,2541],{},[833,2542,2543],{},"我经常听见有人在讲哪只哪只股票赚了几倍的故事，可他们就是不说总的成绩，你懂的。",[827,2545,2546],{},"顺便感谢一下“自助餐先生”。凡是觉得我写的这点东西有帮助的人都应该多看看他老人家的东西，我能讲的他都讲过好多次了。",[827,2548,2549],{},"想到哪写到哪，主要是为了能随时提醒自己。",[827,2551,2552,2553,2555],{},"有人问如何避免以为看懂实际又错了的问题，个人观点：错误是不可避免的，但待在",[891,2554,33],{"href":1980},"内以及专注和用功可以大幅度减少犯错的机会。",[827,2557,2558],{},"啥时候当你觉得简单版就足够了的时候，你大概就可以了。",[827,2560,2561],{},"我这里有很重要的一点就是认为大多数人其实不碰股票就是最好的投资，除非你认为自己确实有自己了解的好公司处在便宜的价钱。",[827,2563,1325,2564,2566],{},[833,2565,1232],{},"的认识非常简单，就是买股票就是买公司，从来没变过。",[827,2568,2569],{},"投资其实不需要啥理论的。买股票就是买公司其实属于定义，因为股票就是公司的一部分。",[827,2571,2572],{},"一般来讲我要投资一家公司时，主要考虑两个重要的点：",[827,2574,2575],{},[833,2576,2577],{},"(1)这家公司能长期获利(足够的利润)吗？",[827,2579,2580],{},[833,2581,2582],{},"(2)公司获得的利润如何给到股东？",[827,2584,2585],{},"简单指的是原则一就是不懂不做，不容易指的是理解、搞懂生意不容易。",[827,2587,2588],{},"投资的难其实就是因为其简单。买股票就是买公司，所以不懂不碰。要搞懂企业的道理很简单，真懂非常难。",[827,2590,2591,2592,2594],{},"知不易行也不易。实际上就是，知道什么是对的事情不容易，",[891,2593,28],{"href":2147},"了也不容易。认为知易行难的很可能还没完全知。",[827,2596,2597,2610],{},[833,2598,2599,2600,2602,2603,2605,2606,2608],{},"从",[891,2601,23],{"href":1249},"的角度讲，投资里",[891,2604,23],{"href":1249},"就是：买股票就是买公司，就是买公司的生意，就是买公司未来的净",[891,2607,88],{"href":893},[891,2609,97],{"href":1934},"，这点其实不用看书，懂了就懂了，不懂看啥书帮助都不会太大。",[827,2612,2599,2613,2615,2616,2618],{},[891,2614,28],{"href":2147},"的角度看，投资就是要看懂公司的生意，有些书也许是可以帮助你看懂一些生意的。",[833,2617,1232],{},"的股东信是涵盖了两者的，如果反复看还是没帮助的话，别的书估计帮助也不大。我本人是没看过啥书的，但做过企业对理解企业有很大帮助。",[827,2620,2621,2624],{},[833,2622,2623],{},"再说对价值投资的一些基本理解"," （2010-05-25）",[827,2626,2627],{},"我想再简单地把我目前对投资的基本理解写一下：",[827,2629,2630],{},"1．买股票就是买公司。所以同样价钱下买的公司是不是上市公司并没有区别，上市只是给出了个退出的方便而已。",[827,2632,2633,2634,1954,2636,2638],{},"2．公司未来",[891,2635,88],{"href":893},[891,2637,97],{"href":1934},"就是公司的内在价值。",[827,2640,2641,2642,2644,2645,2647],{},"买股票应该在公司股价低于其内在价值时买。至于应该是40%还是50%（",[891,2643,101],{"href":1316},"）还是其他数字则完全由投资人自己的",[891,2646,115],{"href":2331},"情况来决定。",[827,2649,2650,2651,2653],{},"3．未来",[891,2652,88],{"href":893},"的折现不是算法，是思维方式，不要企图拿计算器去算出来。当然，拿计算器算一下也没什么错。",[827,2655,2656,2657,2659],{},"4．不懂不做（",[891,2658,33],{"href":1980},"）是一个人判断公司内在价值的必要前提（不是充分的）。",[827,2661,2662,2663,2665],{},"5．“",[891,2664,74],{"href":2436},"”是用来判断公司内在价值的一个重要手段（不是唯一的）。",[827,2667,2668,2669,2672],{},"6．",[891,2670,135],{"href":2671},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","是“护城河”的重要部分。很难想象一个没有很强企业文化的企业可以有个很宽的“护城河”。",[827,2674,2675,2676,2678],{},"“",[891,2677,222],{"href":1524},"”地面对市场每天的波动，仔细地检查每一个自己的投资理由及其变化是非常重要的。",[827,2680,2681],{},"好像我对投资的理解就是这么简单。但这个“简单”其实并不是太简单，事实上这个简单实际上非常难。",[827,2683,2684],{},"网友F：这个说法很到位。巴老说就算他和芒格，同样的公司同样的数据，结果也不尽相同。有意思的是，巴老有时会说BRK公司股价高过或低过内在值，但从来不直接明说BRK当时的内在值到底是多少。芒格相反，披露年报时会告知WESCO股东内在值是多少，当前股价是高估还是低估了。",[827,2686,2687,2689,2690,852],{},[833,2688,847],{}," ：反方是什么？我们这不是都是价值投资者吗？反方我根本就没加进来。我非常",[833,2691,2692,2693,2695],{},"同意DCF（生命周期的总",[891,2694,88],{"href":893},"折现）是唯一合乎逻辑的估值方法的说法，其实这就是“买股票就是买公司”的意思，不过是量化了。",[827,2697,2698],{},"网友：到了您目前的投资境界与阶段，您是否还存在着理念上的某些困惑或问题？您是否有会和巴菲特吃第三顿单独的午餐呢？",[827,2700,2701,2703,2704,2706],{},[833,2702,835],{}," 投资理念的东西非常简单，明白后就从来不曾动摇过。但具体怎么理解未来",[891,2705,88],{"href":893},"折现还是不断有体会的。我开始投资到现在已经有8-9年了，大概理解水平可能相对于巴菲特开始投资20年时的水平（巴菲特11岁开始投资的）。",[827,2708,2709],{},"巴菲特的午餐拍卖每年我都会去捧场，因为每年那个基金会的人都会提醒我（我和他们挺熟的，还去那儿做过义工呢），这也是做好事嘛。说不定哪天不小心拍上了也是有可能的。（2010-05-23）",[827,2711,2712,2713,2715,2716,2718,2719,2721],{},"网友：请问您觉得您和李录与",[833,2714,1232],{},"和",[833,2717,1228],{},"在做",[891,2720,58],{"href":1947},"上最大的差距在哪？您和李录在哪方面还需要学习？",[827,2723,2724,2726],{},[833,2725,835],{}," 最大的差距大概是他们的英语都比我好很多。当然，英语上李录和那两位比(我猜)也会有很大差距的(母语和非母语的差别)，但他的差距对他的投资生涯影响不大，和我的差距有本质的差别。",[827,2728,2599,2729,2731],{},[891,2730,58],{"href":1947},"的角度看，也许你说的差距用“不同”来说更好些。",[827,2733,2734,2735,2737,2738,2740,2741,1954,2743,1190],{},"从对",[891,2736,58],{"href":1947},"的理解上，我认为我们是完全一样的，因为",[891,2739,58],{"href":1947},"的本质就一点：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司未来",[891,2742,88],{"href":893},[891,2744,97],{"href":1934},[827,2746,2747,2748,2750,2751,2753,2755],{},"所有其他的关于",[891,2749,58],{"href":1947},"的说法，其实都是在讨论如何来确定这个未来的",[891,2752,88],{"href":893},[891,2754,97],{"href":1934},"到底大概会有多少的问题。",[827,2757,2758,2759,2761,2762,2764],{},"我们的不同点主要会体现在",[891,2760,33],{"href":1980},"的不同，每个人懂的东西都不同。当然，",[891,2763,33],{"href":1980},"的差距也是有的，比如他们做股票投资的时间都比我长很多。",[827,2766,2767,2769,2770,2772,2774,2775,2777,2778,2780],{},[891,2768,33],{"href":1980},"的意思就是你能够判断未来",[891,2771,88],{"href":893},[891,2773,97],{"href":1934},"的范围。知道自己的",[891,2776,33],{"href":1980},"有多大比",[891,2779,33],{"href":1980},"本身有多大要重要得多。",[827,2782,2783,2784,2715,2786,2788],{},"不过，我现在管的钱的绝对值比",[833,2785,1232],{},[833,2787,1228],{},"在我这个年龄时还要多呢，呵呵。不能和李录比，他比我年轻很多啊。",[827,2790,2791],{},"我和他们三个人的最大的不同确实有一点，那就是他们都是职业投资家，我是业余爱好者，对投资的时间安排比例会有点不同。",[827,2793,2794],{},"我们各方面需要学习的东西应该都很多，不过李录大概不需要像我一样还要花时间学英语了。(2011-01-04)",[827,2796,2797],{},"网友：请教您问题：向可口可乐这样的弱周期行业，在它永远停止增长的情况下是否值得长期投资？",[827,2799,2800,2806],{},[833,2801,2802,2803,2805],{},"段永平：你问的问题都可以回到未来",[891,2804,88],{"href":893},"（折现）上来，只要你能看懂就行"," 。假如可口可乐已经永远停止成长，一年的利润是50亿，市值30亿，你觉得可以买吗？你只要买下来然后把他下市你岂不是赚大钱？（2011-02-14）",[827,2808,2809,2810,2813,2814,2816],{},"网友：看段大哥博客已久，总结说几点。1、买股票就是买公司。2、公司最重要的是",[891,2811,70],{"href":2812},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","，并且自己能够看懂这种商业模式的护城河和接下来几年带来的",[891,2815,88],{"href":893},"。3、不懂不做。",[827,2818,2819],{},"看似简单的几条，但是一般人几乎做不到，难，甚难。",[827,2821,2822,2824],{},[833,2823,835],{}," 总结的很好。（2013-02-23）",[827,2826,2827,2828,2830],{},"网友：投资标的是所谓的成长股、价值股、烟屁股，都不重要；重要的是从未来净",[891,2829,88],{"href":893},"折现的角度来看是否便宜。",[827,2832,2833,2835],{},[833,2834,847],{}," ：对，这个是本质。（2013-04-03）",[827,2837,2838,2839,2841],{},"网友：投资就是买公司未来",[891,2840,88],{"href":893},"，是否还要考虑时间成本？",[827,2843,2844,2846],{},[833,2845,835],{}," 股票或公司是有时间价值的，这就是“折现”的魅力。",[827,2848,2849],{},"比如我觉得苹果早晚是1000块的股票，但可能需要3年，如果今天有人愿意800块买，我可能就愿意卖了。",[827,2851,2852],{},"但如果当年我觉得，网易在10年以内是个50块以上甚至100块的股票，如果有人出10块钱买，即便当时市值是5块，我也是不肯卖的。",[827,2854,1992,2855,2857],{},[891,2856,88],{"href":893},"的“折现”，你把“折现”两字忽略掉那意思就完全不一样了。比如，我告诉你苹果有一天会到每股10万块，但要一万年，你买不？",[827,2859,2860,2861,2863],{},"再次强调：未来",[891,2862,88],{"href":893},"折现指的是一种思维方式，想用公式的请到学校去用哈。（2014-08-21）",[827,2865,2866,2867,2869],{},"网友：在段大哥这里学习了这么多年的投资，当遇到投资选择困难，越来越喜欢用“未来",[891,2868,88],{"href":893},"折现”和“不想持有10年，为什么要持有10分钟呢”来看问题，它们能让我快速回到原点，以企业经营者或拥有者的角度去尽量看足够长的未来，能看得到看得懂才是自己的能力圈，从而帮助自己做出明确的判断和决定。",[827,2871,2872,2874],{},[833,2873,847],{}," ：你可以毕业了哈。（2015-10-07）",[827,2876,2877],{},"网友：问段总几个问题：1．段总是否看好比特币，会购买嘛？2．能否用最简练的语言概括一下您多年来做事，做投资最朴素的底层逻辑是什么？",[827,2879,2880,2882,2883,2885,2886,2888],{},[833,2881,847],{}," ：1．没有",[891,2884,88],{"href":893},"的东西我不碰。2．做投资要基于未来",[891,2887,88],{"href":893},"。（2019-09-18）",[827,2890,2891],{},"网友：希望您谈一谈比特币。",[827,2893,2894,2896,2897,2899],{},[833,2895,835],{}," 没有",[891,2898,88],{"href":893},"的东西我看不懂。（2025-07-18）",[827,2901,2902],{},[833,2903,2904],{},"不产生现金流的东西：黄金、比特币、稳定币",[827,2906,2907],{},"网友：黄金是不是能跑赢通胀？",[827,2909,2910,2912],{},[833,2911,835],{}," 我以前也这么想过，后来发现黄金是跑不过通胀的(黄金的购买力也是会下降的)。不过，恶性通胀发生的时候，黄金应该有一定的保值作用吧。(2022-01-25)",[827,2914,2915,2921],{},[833,2916,2917,2918,2920],{},"段永平：黄金不产生",[891,2919,88],{"href":893},"，不保值。"," (2020-05-17)",[827,2923,2924,2926,2927,2929],{},[833,2925,835],{}," 比特币不产生",[891,2928,88],{"href":893},"，无法评估，属于不懂不碰的范畴。同理，我也不会投资名画、邮票、古董、郁金香……自己用的不算投资，虽然也可能会赚钱。(2022-05-02)",[827,2931,2932,2934],{},[833,2933,835],{}," 前几天还跟很早就买了不少比特币的一个朋友聊过几句。他的观点是比特币就像黄金，和市面上的说法差不多。我似懂非懂。黄金是稀缺的，比特币也是稀缺的，但搞出一个像比特币一样稀缺的东西很容易啊，搞出一个黄金属性的东西很难，毕竟铜汞银铂金，金是最稳定的金属哈。(2020-11-23)",[827,2936,2937],{},"网友：想请教一下大道对于稳定币数字资产的看法。",[827,2939,2940,2942,2943,2945],{},[833,2941,835],{}," 稳定币有点道理，发行方可以赚tbill的利息和",[891,2944,125],{"href":2131},"者的期望，不过我没兴趣。（2025-07-18）",[827,2947,2948,2949,2951,2952,2954,2955,2957,2958,2960],{},"网友：不是我们非要做",[891,2950,58],{"href":1947},"，而是我们不得不做",[891,2953,58],{"href":1947},"。去坚守价值，去坚守自己的",[891,2956,33],{"href":1980},"，远离",[891,2959,125],{"href":2131},"，远离频繁交易。远离了失败，我们才有一丝成功的机会。",[827,2962,2963,2965,2966,2968,2969,2971],{},[833,2964,835],{}," 买了一个好生意一直拿着真的会觉得很难受吗？假设我们拥有整个",[833,2967,1259],{},"，每天",[891,2970,88],{"href":893},"杠杠的，你在坚守啥？",[827,2973,2974,2975,1954,2977,2715,2979,2981,2982,2984,2985,2987],{},"网友：您曾说看好",[833,2976,1439],{},[891,2978,70],{"href":2812},[891,2980,135],{"href":2671},"，它是家好公司。可是后来您又说，看不懂它未来的",[891,2983,88],{"href":893},"。而且您的持仓很低只有1%(仿佛后来又不是太看好)。我想不明白您看不懂它未来",[891,2986,88],{"href":893},"具体是指哪方面，对它不确定的又是什么？",[827,2989,2990,2992,2993,2995,2996,2998],{},[833,2991,835],{}," 看不懂未来",[891,2994,88],{"href":893},"的意思是看不懂公司未来到底能赚多少钱。投资是要花钱的，所以你需要知道你投资的公司未来能赚多少钱，是不是能赚的比你投的多，不然就不应该投。大部分公司我都看不懂，",[833,2997,1439],{},"我有点懂但不是那么透。",[827,3000,3001],{},"网友：老段。我还有个问题。如果我找到个公司。我确信其一块钱现在只是卖5毛的价钱，但增长缓慢，有一定壁垒。和一个公司我只能确信其1块钱现在卖的是9毛钱，但未来前景很好，壁垒很高，增长很快。那如果在我资金有限的情况下，我应该重点选择哪个公司呢？确定性还是成长性？困扰了我很久，老段指教下。",[827,3003,3004,3006],{},[833,3005,835],{}," 如果可能的话，你算个20年的总和（或者10年），也许你能有个结论？（2010-04-05）",[827,3008,3009,3011],{},[833,3010,835],{}," 如果从投资的角度看，你觉得这两家公司谁的市值应该大些？",[827,3013,3014],{},"从算术题的角度看，两家企业20年后的差距肯定是拉大了。如果你是哪个小企业的话，难道你会觉得差距缩小了？现实中有意思的是，小企业里的人一般都觉得差距缩小了，感觉也好多了，有趣吗？（2010-04-21）",[827,3016,3017,1047],{},[833,3018,3019,3020,3022],{},"段永平：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来",[891,3021,88],{"href":893},"（的折现）",[827,3024,3025,3026,3028],{},"网友：段总对网易的投资应该是典型的这个思路；而对YAHOO的投资好像不是这个路数，寄希望于YAHOO隐形价值的释放，而不是YAHOO自身价值的提升。但并不违反“自己看得懂的",[891,3027,58],{"href":1947},"”这个总原则。",[827,3030,3031,848,3033,3039],{},[833,3032,847],{},[833,3034,3035,3036,3038],{},"我的投资其实就是一个思路：未来",[891,3037,88],{"href":893},"的折现。这点很像打高尔夫，每支杆的挥杆动作都是一样的。"," （2010-05-20）",[827,3041,1436,3042,3044,3045,3047,3048,3050,3051,3053,3054,3056],{},[833,3043,1232],{},"说在认识",[833,3046,1228],{},"之前，他特别喜欢在市场上捡便宜货，是",[833,3049,1228],{},"让他意识到花贵一点的价格买个好货回报高过捡便宜货。我觉得",[833,3052,1232],{},"那时候之所以喜欢便宜货应该是因为对商业的深层次理解等都还不够，对贵货很难下手。",[891,3055,58],{"href":1947},"需要对行业、公司、商业，甚至对社会有很深的理解。我不认为年轻人容易具备这种能力。",[827,3058,3059],{},"相反，便宜货会比较容易判断些。",[827,3061,3062,3064,3065,3067,3069,3070,3072,3073,3075,3077,3078,3080,3082,3083,3085],{},[833,3063,835],{}," 呵呵，还是个未来",[891,3066,88],{"href":893},[891,3068,97],{"href":1934},"的问题。",[833,3071,1232],{},"发现“便宜货”的未来",[891,3074,88],{"href":893},[891,3076,97],{"href":1934},"比有把握成长的公司的未来",[891,3079,88],{"href":893},[891,3081,97],{"href":1934},"来得还要小，这可能就是",[833,3084,1228],{},"提醒的作用吧。",[827,3087,3088],{},"但是，看懂好的成长公司可是要比捡便宜难得多哦。(2010-05-24)",[827,3090,3091],{},"网友：有一个周期性的企业，行业最好是年50亿利润，行业最差时去年为10亿利润。将来我可以定性肯定好的。而他的成长性有限，我该如何估值呢？像美国这种成熟的市场而言。",[827,3093,3094,3096,3097,3099],{},[833,3095,835],{}," 你试试做个未来",[891,3098,88],{"href":893},"折现看看。如果你说你不会折的话，那你买的是什么呢？（2010-05-24）",[827,3101,3102,3103,3105],{},"网友：确实不可能细算，但总该有个大概的数的，就是不知道",[891,3104,88],{"href":893},"的大概数是怎样收集的。",[827,3107,3108,3111],{},[833,3109,3110],{},"段永平：你如果能懂一家公司，你就有办法，不然谁都没概念"," 。（2010-05-25）",[827,3113,3114,3116,3117,3119,3120,3122],{},[833,3115,847],{}," ：未来",[891,3118,88],{"href":893},"折现不是个计算公式，他只是个思维方式。没见过谁真能算出来一家公司未来是有",[891,3121,88],{"href":893},"折现的。芒格说过，他从来没见过巴菲特算这个东西。（2010-05-25）",[827,3124,3125],{},"网友：在您的博客里我从前看到的是安全边际，以5毛买一元的方法；现在，开始谈芒格了，转向费雪了，以合适的价格买入成长的股票。但是，成长股更难选择，当时以为是合适的价格后来看变成了贵的价格，怎么办呢？",[827,3127,3128,3130,3131,3133],{},[833,3129,835],{}," 我没有什么大变化，就是好像理解“烟蒂”的意思了。还是一样的东西：内在价值等于未来",[891,3132,88],{"href":893},"的折现。你看得懂，觉得便宜时（相对于内在价值）再买。有成长性股有时更难找，但道理都是一样的。（2010-05-28）",[827,3135,3136],{},"网友：您认为对于个人投资者的角度，投资烟蒂型股票和成长型股票，哪个更好，如果两个都确定懂的话？",[827,3138,3139,3141,3142,3144],{},[833,3140,835],{}," 根据未来",[891,3143,88],{"href":893},"折现去决定是否该买和继续买（如果你还有钱的话）。（2010-06-02）",[827,3146,3147,3149],{},[833,3148,835],{}," 增长是零也不是零和游戏。（2010-07-20）",[827,3151,3152],{},"网友：请段总把巴菲特买卖中石油的逻辑讲解一下吧，好让大家明白明白？",[827,3154,3155,2347,3157,3159],{},[833,3156,835],{},[891,3158,88],{"href":893},"折现啊！（2010-07-21）",[827,3161,3162,3163,3165,3166,3168],{},"网友：投资人真正的工作和成败的关键就是发现寻找企业新局面，还没有出现但已经具备了新局面出现的条件的阶段，在这一阶段企业是根本没有利润的，用",[891,3164,88],{"href":893},"判断企业价值是不可能的，所以，通过对",[891,3167,88],{"href":893},"计算进行企业估值，永远是等而下之的方法。",[827,3170,3171],{},"等企业出现了利润，可以计算其价值是，股价早就上去了，投资人已经挣不到大钱了。真正的有效方法是在企业利润没有出现前，判断企业有没有具有产生大量利润的条件和要素。",[827,3173,3174,3176,3177,3179,3180,3182,3183,3185,3186,3188,3189,3191],{},[833,3175,835],{}," 是未来",[891,3178,88],{"href":893},"的折现，不是",[891,3181,88],{"href":893},"。如果不能对未来",[891,3184,88],{"href":893},"折现做出评估，其实没人做到自己买的是什么。任何评估的方法归根到底还是要回到",[891,3187,88],{"href":893},"的折现上，这大概就是老巴说的",[891,3190,88],{"href":893},"折现的意思。这个做法像VC。",[827,3193,3194],{},"建议你还是再想想老巴的东西，有点不太一样。（2010-07-23）",[827,3196,3197],{},"网友：老段这个长期没有什么具体的期限吧，比如是一年三年，还是五年十年的．老是持有的不够长久！",[827,3199,3200,3202,3203,3205],{},[833,3201,835],{}," 未来",[891,3204,88],{"href":893},"的折现其实是没有期限的，慢慢琢磨下。（2010-12-06）",[827,3207,3208,3209,3211],{},"网友：看了您介绍曾经投过的企业，感觉您的投资模式至少有两种，当然前提都是投自己看懂的企业。一种是价值低估型，公司成熟稳定，有坚固的",[891,3210,74],{"href":2436},"，在市场恐慌价值低估时买入，比如，投通用电气就是这种类型；另一种是成长型，投入时价格便宜未来有很大成长空间的企业，比如，投网易就是典型代表，是吗？我的这些分析对吗？",[827,3213,3214,848,3216,3222,3223,3225],{},[833,3215,847],{},[833,3217,3218,3219,3221],{},"我永远只有一种投资模式，那就是估算未来",[891,3220,88],{"href":893},"（的折现）。有点像高尔夫，只有一种挥杆模式。"," 不过，我要",[891,3224,125],{"href":2131},"的话，那模式就多了。（2011-01-07）",[827,3227,3228,3229,3231,3232,3234],{},"网友：股票的内在价值就是净值（年报上的总资产减去",[891,3230,64],{"href":1277},"）加未来",[891,3233,88],{"href":893},"折现？",[827,3236,3237,3243,3244],{},[833,3238,3239,3240,3242],{},"段永平：公司的内在价值就是其未来自由",[891,3241,88],{"href":893},"的折现"," ，",[833,3245,3246,3247,3249,3250,3252],{},"所谓现在公司的净值应该是被包括在未来",[891,3248,88],{"href":893},"里面的。未来",[891,3251,88],{"href":893},"折现只是一个概念或思考方式。",[827,3254,3255,3261],{},[833,3256,3257,3258,3260],{},"一般来讲，任何人只要试图用未来",[891,3259,88],{"href":893},"的计算公式去计算公司的内在价值时，就说明其实他还不太懂他在干什么"," 。（2011-01-27）",[827,3263,3264,3265,3267,3268,3270],{},"网友：记得段总强过调评估",[891,3266,88],{"href":893},"是一种思路，而不是一种公式。你说按公式去评估这个思路好像不是段总的思路？我觉得段总评估",[891,3269,88],{"href":893},"应该是从各方面评估一个企业未来能赚多少钱，而不是靠某个公式来推导？所以最重要的是要搞懂这个企业到底是怎么赚钱，未来往哪个方面发展。不知道我这个思路对不对？",[827,3272,3273,3275,3276,3282],{},[833,3274,847],{}," ：差不多。",[833,3277,3278,3279,3281],{},"我觉得所谓未来",[891,3280,88],{"href":893},"的定性分析比定量分析要重要的多，用公式的人往往会陷于细节而忽略整体"," 。（2011-03-23）",[827,3284,3285],{},"网友：请问段总，当我们投资过程中不知道市场是不是“过渡追捧”时（也就是往往股价长期在内在价值之上运行），是不是应该以关注公司的大发展为主，而不去关注股价高估的程度？往往高估的程度都是不同的，也无法预测出．但公司的发展心里有数．您在投资中是不是更注重公司的发展而不是自己的股票高估了呢？",[827,3287,3288,3294],{},[833,3289,3290,3291,3293],{},"段永平：我就看未来",[891,3292,88],{"href":893},"的概念。我认为所有东西都在里面了"," 。（2011-03-27）",[827,3296,3297,3298,3300],{},"网友：价值投资有了太多变种，变种了就变味道了。倒是觉得投资只有一种",[891,3299,222],{"href":1524},"的办法，这种办法适合于企业、股票、房产等所有投资。",[827,3302,3303,3308,3309,3311],{},[833,3304,3305,3306,3242],{},"段永平：价值投资就一种，其实就是未来",[891,3307,88],{"href":893}," 。其他的（如果是价值投资的话）说法其实都是为了实现找到（看明白）未来",[891,3310,88],{"href":893},"的办法。（2011-09-05）",[827,3313,3314],{},"网友：自己的股票自己要懂，但这个懂有时候真是无法确定的一个标准。你怎么去判断？",[827,3316,3317,3323],{},[833,3318,3319,3320,3322],{},"段永平：我就一个判断标准：未来",[891,3321,88],{"href":893},"折现。看不懂的就不碰"," 。（2012-02-02）",[827,3325,3326,3327,3329,3330,3332,3333,3335],{},"网友：看了您一直在说",[891,3328,88],{"href":893},"折现，我也非常认同这个思路，但是不知道您说的",[891,3331,88],{"href":893},"折现具体是怎么样一个算法，是按DCF的做法，还是其他方法？您前边讲过",[891,3334,88],{"href":893},"折现是一个思路，但不知道这具体的算法是怎样的，是按多少年来折的。",[827,3337,3338,848,3340,3342],{},[833,3339,847],{},[891,3341,88],{"href":893},"折现是个思维方式，我自己从来没算过。也许职业投资的人会算，但我这种业余投资者不需要那么细，多烦人啊。（2012-02-04）",[827,3344,3345,3346,3352],{},"然而真正重要的还是",[833,3347,3348,3349,3351],{},"实质价值——这个数字代表组合我们企业所有份子合理的价值，根据精准的远见，这个数字可由企业未来预计的",[891,3350,88],{"href":893},"量（包含流进与流出），并以现行的利率予以折现，不管是马鞭的制造公司或是移动电话的业者都可以在同等的地位上，据以评估其经济价值。"," （1989）",[827,3354,3355,3356,3358,3359,3361],{},"网友：高科技公司变化太快，很难评估未来",[891,3357,88],{"href":893},"，你如何在不确定的未来，准确的估计",[891,3360,88],{"href":893},"？",[827,3363,3364,3367],{},[833,3365,3366],{},"段永平：其实很简单。如果一个人一辈子能看懂一次就可能表现比95%的人好，如果一个都看不懂也可以表现比80%的人好"," 。（2012-04-05）",[827,3369,3370,3379],{},[833,3371,3372,3373,3375,3376,3378],{},"段永平：其实房地产生意是最容易解释未来",[891,3374,88],{"href":893},"折现的概念的，只要把租金想成未来",[891,3377,88],{"href":893},"就明白了"," 。（2012-06-26）",[827,3381,3382,3384,3385,3387,3388,3390],{},[833,3383,835],{}," 这就是未来",[891,3386,88],{"href":893},"折现的意思---不懂未来",[891,3389,88],{"href":893},"折现的意思的人快来看这条---如果你非要用公式，现在可以用一下。注：这里的6%和18%指的不是成长速度。（2012-06-26）",[827,3392,3393,848,3395,3401],{},[833,3394,847],{},[833,3396,3397,3398,3400],{},"如果一个人要买一家公司却又不知道一家公司的未来",[891,3399,88],{"href":893},"（折现）至少会是多少，那这个人买的是什么呢（假如是家非上市公司会更容易明白）"," 。这里不考虑其他因素并购，比如技术并购等。“至少”很重要，表示这是个思维方式。用公式的都是蒙人的，没有例外。（2012-07-13）",[827,3403,3404,3406,3407,3412],{},[833,3405,847],{}," ：再次强调：",[833,3408,1992,3409,3411],{},[891,3410,88],{"href":893},"折现指的是一种思维方式"," ，想用公式的请到学校去用哈。（2013-02-01）",[827,3414,3415,3418],{},[833,3416,3417],{},"没有一个能计算出内在价值的公式。你得懂这个企业（你得懂得打算购买的这家企业的业务"," ）。",[827,3420,3421,3422,3424,3425,3427],{},"网友：想通啦，确实想通啦。呵呵。当明白了投资的基本逻辑以后，我们要做的就是通过投资来表达自己原始的本意。在学习如何看懂未来",[891,3423,88],{"href":893},"折现时了解自己。本着未来",[891,3426,88],{"href":893},"折现的方法去投资，就不会死板。",[827,3429,3430,3431,3433,3434,3436],{},"现在感觉投资真的是超简单，就是未来",[891,3432,88],{"href":893},"折现这么一点东西，但要看懂未来",[891,3435,88],{"href":893},"折现却是很不容易的。不过又一想，其实也没那么不容易，投资又不是比赛，慢慢来呗。在您这儿获得的启发超赞！",[827,3438,3439,3441],{},[833,3440,835],{}," 慢慢来很重要，两年找到一个就非常非常好了。（2013-12-14）",[827,3443,3444,3446,3447,3449],{},[833,3445,835],{}," 如果你真的明白什么叫“",[891,3448,88],{"href":893},"”的话，你是会明白投资家和画家的区别的。（2016-12-21）",[827,3451,3452],{},"网友：怎么看比特币／区块链？",[827,3454,3455,3461],{},[833,3456,3457,3458,3460],{},"段永平：我对不产生",[891,3459,88],{"href":893},"的东西，不感兴趣。"," 区块链我不懂，不懂不看，不懂没法下重注。但是我看不懂，不代表你看不懂，你要投自己能看懂的。（2018-09-30）",[827,3463,3464,3465,3467],{},"网友：李嘉诚说过；投资就是买未来的",[891,3466,88],{"href":893},"，不谋而合。",[827,3469,3470,3472],{},[833,3471,847],{}," ：不然买的是什么？（2019-09-18）",[827,3474,3475,3476,1190],{},"投资就是买未来",[891,3477,88],{"href":893},[827,3479,1436,3480,3482],{},[891,3481,58],{"href":1947},"“术”的层面怎么看？",[827,3484,3485,3487,3488,3490,3491,2395,3493,3495,3496,1954,3498,3500],{},[833,3486,835],{}," 我个人以为",[891,3489,58],{"href":1947},"的术就是如何研究企业未来",[891,3492,88],{"href":893},[891,3494,97],{"href":1934},")的问题。",[833,3497,1232],{},[891,3499,74],{"href":2436},"和好的管理团队等都属于术的范畴。其实这个术是很难从书本上学到的，学校里一般也没人可以教，大概只能自己慢慢悟了。",[827,3502,3503],{},"网友：如何看待虚拟货币？",[827,3505,3506,2896,3508,3510],{},[833,3507,835],{},[891,3509,88],{"href":893},"的东西不知道怎么看。",[827,3512,3513,3514,3516,3517,3519],{},"网友：在众多的估值方法中，我最接受您提的未来",[891,3515,88],{"href":893},"折现法，我明白它的意思，但是，好像要了解公司的",[891,3518,88],{"href":893},"好像不容易，",[827,3521,3522,3202,3524,3526],{},[833,3523,835],{},[891,3525,88],{"href":893},"的折现不是财务问题，其实可能是个哲学问题，反正我从来都没有算过，也没见哪个会计师会算过。",[827,3528,3529],{},"网友：对于我这种投资新兵而言，不但希望学到从宏观上判别一个公司的价值，还希望能够分享到如何用数学模型量化分析公司的价值的方法。段老师好像研究生班学的就是计量经济学的专业的，能否在这里分享一些你是如何用数学方法分析公司价值的心得？",[827,3531,3532,3534],{},[833,3533,847],{}," ：会加减乘除，懂什么叫复利就够了。其余的我不知道对谁有用。老巴在前面我贴的博文里讲的很清楚，慢慢看看，会很有用的。（2010-04-15）",[827,3536,2272,3537,3539],{},[891,3538,88],{"href":893},"折现，很不好算啊，你有一个简单的方法吗？让小学毕业的也能听懂的那种？",[827,3541,3542,3544],{},[833,3543,847],{}," ：折现就是反过来的复利。这个小学好像没学。（2010-04-27）",[827,3546,3547],{},"网友：巴菲特说如果只是照格雷厄姆的选择，选择烟蒂型投资，会比现在穷的多，段总有一句话不太明白，这里只是说了10年，实际上评估一个公司如果能够用更长的时间去评估的话，可能会更清楚些（但更难）。有些不太理解段总的清楚与更难。",[827,3549,3550,3552],{},[833,3551,847],{}," ：时间越长当然越难评估，但如果你能做到那就更清楚能否投资了。喜诗糖果是个很好的例子，巴菲特看到了很远，所以就投了。（2010-05-27）",[827,3554,3555],{},"网友Y：我这样看，如果你打算持有10年，你可以按10年来算，如果你打算留给你的子孙万代，且你确信这个企业永续存在，又永远盈利的话，你当然现在任何价位买入都是不贵的。",[827,3557,3558,3560],{},[833,3559,835],{}," 怎么听起来像是IRS。如果人口下降怎么办？人口是不可能一直涨的。（2010-05-27）",[827,3562,1893,3563,3565],{},[891,3564,88],{"href":893},"折现，如何把成长性算进去？",[827,3567,3568,3570],{},[833,3569,847],{}," ：就把成长加进去就行了。（2010-05-27）",[827,3572,3573,3574,3576],{},"网友：我记得“未来",[891,3575,88],{"href":893},"量折现”这个问题，两年来我从老巴那里都没能弄懂，但您讲了后，一下子就弄懂了。",[827,3578,3579,3581],{},[833,3580,847],{}," ：这个该财务讲，巴菲特以为大家都知道。（2010-05-29）",[827,3583,3584,3585,3587],{},"网友c：我想问的是，如果把问题简单化：假设一个永续存在的企业，产品是和人口有关的（这样假设时间越久增长越趋向于人口增长），一直有稳定",[891,3586,88],{"href":893},"入的话，1000年赢利折现值可能在几十万亿，企业存活时间越久，它产生的利润折现下来可能越趋向于无穷大（如果不增长，因为无穷远的利润折到现在趋近于0，结果或许只是趋向于一个极值）（以上这样的企业全属假设）。",[827,3589,3590,3592,3593,3595],{},[833,3591,835],{}," 如果有这样的企业存在的话，按现价买未来",[891,3594,88],{"href":893},"的这样思维，那么是不是现在的任意价格都属于低估了呢？如果按你这里算它10年的赢利折现下来100亿的话，无限大和100亿这两个计算出来的理论价值又怎么样去理解呢？（还是我计算方式理解方式有些问题），无意想反驳，只是想不通这个问题。",[827,3597,3598,3599,3601,3602,3604],{},"网友：DCF估值计算器使用起来非常方便， 段老师可以试试，只需调整几个关键估值参数（收入利润增长率、",[891,3600,97],{"href":1934},"率）等就可以生成可视化的DCF估值分析，",[891,3603,88],{"href":893},"量如溪流般清晰可见，可谓是“看见未来，洞悉价值”！",[827,3606,3607,3609,3610,3612,3613,3615],{},[833,3608,835],{}," 对不懂的企业不能用，对懂的企业（",[891,3611,70],{"href":2812},"，",[891,3614,135],{"href":2671},"好的企业）不需要用的。精确的错误往往就是来自于这种“公式”。 （2025-09-25）",[827,3617,3618,3619,3621],{},"网友：如何避免投资碰到黑天鹅事件？前期apple 大面积补贴 ipad 一代用户，是否也影响了未来",[891,3620,88],{"href":893},"的评估，是否需要调整您原来的估值？",[827,3623,3624,3626],{},[833,3625,835],{}," 和什么类型公司其实无关。不过，有些公司如果只有一两个大家翘首以盼的产品，黄了确实会不好看的。这类公司很难投资，至少很难重仓。（2025-09-29）",[827,3628,3629],{},"网友：也许某一天，会买加密货币。",[827,3631,3632,3633,3635],{},"大道：没有",[891,3634,88],{"href":893},"的东西我不会感兴趣的，you don't get the point！ （2025-11-20）",[827,3637,3638,3639,3641],{},"金比银稳定，更不容易被置换。钾钠钙镁铝锌铁…银铂金。我说过很多次，我对没",[891,3640,88],{"href":893},"的东西不关心不感兴趣，以后谁再问这类问题就直接屏蔽了，免被打扰。（2026-01-28）",[827,3643,3644,3645,3647,3649,3650,3652],{},"网友：段老师，你好！我也是满仓主义者，尤其现在满着茅子，感觉很安心。但也在思考一个问题：在未来，当股价明显高于估计的未来",[891,3646,88],{"href":893},[891,3648,97],{"href":1934},"的情况（不限于",[833,3651,1259],{},"，比如市场整体过热的情况），那手拿着部分的现金的潜在收益（哪怕1%的利息），等待市场热情冷却，物有所值时再买入，会不会比满仓好一些？",[827,3654,3655,3656,1190],{},"但这样又显得有点",[891,3657,125],{"href":2131},[827,3659,3660],{},"大道：如果你知道你在干什么，那你就干呗。如果你都不知道你在干嘛，那你在干嘛？（2026-02-02）",[827,3662,3663],{},"网友C：如果一个公司能够正常盈利，一般按照净资产算（轻资产和重资产公司除外），价值就是10亿，不知道对不对。我觉得这样算，是因为我知道很多商铺盘给人家都是按照净资产卖给对方，所以觉得公司估计也是这样算。",[827,3665,3666,3668,3669,3671],{},[833,3667,847],{}," ：假如这是个算术题：也就是每年都一定赚一个亿（净",[891,3670,88],{"href":893},"），再假设银行利息永远不变，比如说是5%，那我认为这个公司的内在价值就是20亿。有趣的是，表面看上去和有多少净资产没关系。实际上，净资产是实现利润的条件之一。",[827,3673,3674],{},"假设真有这么个公司，我认为其内在价值是20个亿，如果市场价掉到10个亿的话，我会很乐意买点的。可惜这只是个算术题，现实投资要复杂很多。（2010-05-09）",[827,3676,3677,3678,3680],{},"网友：请教一个计算公司价值的问题：一家公司在余下寿命中可以产生",[891,3679,88],{"href":893},"的贴现值。如果一个公司判断是卓越公司，未来一直会有稳定利润，计算中不是就没有最后一天了吗？",[827,3682,3683,3685,3686,3688],{},[833,3684,835],{}," 举例：如果判断一个公司净资产为10亿，",[891,3687,64],{"href":1277},"为0，未来每年有1亿的利润，该公司内在价值是多少？",[827,3690,3691],{},"网友：价值投资学习中．段总，比如一个公司有净资产100亿，每年能赚10亿，这个公司大概值多少钱？",[827,3693,3694,3696],{},[833,3695,835],{}," 大概就是你存X的钱能拿到10亿的利息（长期国债利息），再把x打6折。",[827,3698,3699],{},"网友：大道您好！请教一下，对于巴老讲的“一鸟在手，胜过两鸟在林”，应该怎样去正确理解？",[827,3701,3702],{},"大道：我猜大概就是说你有两只鸟，你自己留一只就够了，另外那只剩下的就留在林子里吧。（2025-12-18）",[827,3704,3705,3706,3708,3710,3711,3713],{},"公司价值实际上只和其未来(净)",[891,3707,88],{"href":893},[891,3709,97],{"href":1934},"有关，净资产只是产生",[891,3712,88],{"href":893},"的工具而已。(2012-01-27)",[827,3715,3716],{},"网友：这个长期没有什么具体的期限吧，比如是3年还是5年10年的，老是持有得不够长久！",[827,3718,3719,3202,3721,1954,3723,3725],{},[833,3720,835],{},[891,3722,88],{"href":893},[891,3724,97],{"href":1934},"其实是没有期限的，慢慢琢磨下。(2010-12-07)",[827,3727,1893,3728,3730,3732,3733,3735],{},[891,3729,88],{"href":893},[891,3731,97],{"href":1934},"我理解为未来利润",[891,3734,97],{"href":1934},"，是否大错？",[827,3737,3738,3740],{},[833,3739,835],{}," 没什么错，但利润必须是真实的利润。(2010-05-27)",[827,3742,3743,3744,3746,3747,3749,3750,3752],{},"网友：假设一个永续存在的企业，产品是和人口有关的(这样假设时间越久增长越趋向于人口增长)，一直有稳定",[891,3745,88],{"href":893},"入的话，1000年盈利",[891,3748,97],{"href":1934},"值可能在几十万亿。如果有这样的企业存在的话，按现价买未来",[891,3751,88],{"href":893},"的思维，是不是现在任意价格都属于低估了呢？",[827,3754,3755,3757],{},[833,3756,835],{}," 怎么听起来像是美国国内收入署(IRS)。如果人口下降怎么办？人口是不可能一直涨的。(2010-05-27)",[827,3759,3760,3761,3763],{},"其实这个例子说得很清楚，把所有未来的可能",[891,3762,88],{"href":893},"都算了，这就是为什么我说2020年要卖掉的原因(卖掉是一次性把现金全部拿回来的办法)，不然就要一直算下去。(2010-05-28)",[3765,3766],"hr",{},[827,3768,3769],{},"以下三节已移至续章，原有小节链接仍可在此定位：",[827,3771,3772],{},[3773,3774],"span",{"id":3775},"第四节-折现率与机会成本",[827,3777,3778,3779,1190],{},"原第四节「折现率与机会成本」：",[891,3780,3782],{"href":3781},"\u002Fwenda-invest-07-cases#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%8A%82-%E6%8A%98%E7%8E%B0%E7%8E%87%E4%B8%8E%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC","前往续章第一节",[827,3784,3785],{},[3773,3786],{"id":3787},"第五节-peev与财务指标的边界",[827,3789,3790,3791,1190],{},"原第五节「PE、EV与财务指标的边界」：",[891,3792,3794],{"href":3793},"\u002Fwenda-invest-07-cases#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E8%8A%82-peev%E4%B8%8E%E8%B4%A2%E5%8A%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E8%BE%B9%E7%95%8C","前往续章第二节",[827,3796,3797],{},[3773,3798],{"id":3799},"第六节-估值案例万科ge茅台与dcf实算",[827,3801,3802,3803,1190],{},"原第六节「估值案例：万科、GE、茅台与DCF实算」：",[891,3804,3806],{"href":3805},"\u002Fwenda-invest-07-cases#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E8%8A%82-%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E6%A1%88%E4%BE%8B%E4%B8%87%E7%A7%91ge%E8%8C%85%E5%8F%B0%E4%B8%8Edcf%E5%AE%9E%E7%AE%97","前往续章第三节",{"title":3808,"searchDepth":21,"depth":21,"links":3809},"",[3810,3811,3812],{"id":824,"depth":21,"text":825},{"id":1432,"depth":21,"text":1433},{"id":1766,"depth":21,"text":1767},"寻长坡以滚雪球","md",{},true,"\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-07",{"title":499,"description":501},"段永平问答：估值的起点：定性判断与现金流折现｜段永平投资问答录","本章按主题重排已收集的公开问答，保留正文中的提问者、引文署名与发言日期；尚未逐条核对原始发布链接。本站编辑日期不代表原始发言日期。","unverified",[],"dao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-07",[3825,3826,3827,3828],"投资原则","定性判断","现金流折现","估值","2026-10-10","k2SEZEfQtL4cEsT3w7J9YesZcDLX-wOQxXHYk39czYM","dao",[3833,3834,3835,3836,3837,3838,3839,3840,3841,3842,3843,3844,3845,3846,3847,3848,3849,3850,3851,3852,3853,3854,3855,3856,3857,3858,3859,3860,3861,3862,3863,3864,3865,3866,3867,3868,3869,3870,3871,3872,3873,3874,3875,3876,3877,3878,3879],{"title":431,"slug":432,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":16,"order":434},{"title":438,"slug":439,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":21,"order":441},{"title":443,"slug":444,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":26,"order":446},{"title":448,"slug":449,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":31,"order":451},{"title":453,"slug":454,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":36,"order":456},{"title":458,"slug":459,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":41,"order":461},{"title":463,"slug":464,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":16,"order":466},{"title":469,"slug":470,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":21,"order":472},{"title":474,"slug":475,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":26,"order":477},{"title":479,"slug":480,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":31,"order":482},{"title":484,"slug":485,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":36,"order":487},{"title":135,"slug":489,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":41,"order":491},{"title":493,"slug":494,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":16,"order":496},{"title":499,"slug":500,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":21,"order":502},{"title":504,"slug":505,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":26,"order":507},{"title":509,"slug":510,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":31,"order":512},{"title":514,"slug":515,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":36,"order":517},{"title":519,"slug":520,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":41,"order":522},{"title":524,"slug":525,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":51,"order":527},{"title":529,"slug":530,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":16,"order":532},{"title":535,"slug":536,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":21,"order":538},{"title":540,"slug":541,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":26,"order":543},{"title":545,"slug":546,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":31,"order":548},{"title":550,"slug":551,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":36,"order":553},{"title":555,"slug":556,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":41,"order":558},{"title":560,"slug":561,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":16,"order":563},{"title":566,"slug":567,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":21,"order":569},{"title":571,"slug":572,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":26,"order":574},{"title":576,"slug":577,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":31,"order":579},{"title":581,"slug":582,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":36,"order":584},{"title":586,"slug":587,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":41,"order":589},{"title":591,"slug":592,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":51,"order":594},{"title":596,"slug":597,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":56,"order":599},{"title":601,"slug":602,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":62,"order":604},{"title":606,"slug":607,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":68,"order":609},{"title":611,"slug":612,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":16,"order":614},{"title":617,"slug":618,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":21,"order":620},{"title":622,"slug":623,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":26,"order":625},{"title":627,"slug":628,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":31,"order":630},{"title":632,"slug":633,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":36,"order":635},{"title":637,"slug":638,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":41,"order":640},{"title":642,"slug":643,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":16,"order":645},{"title":648,"slug":649,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":21,"order":651},{"title":653,"slug":654,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":26,"order":656},{"title":658,"slug":659,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":31,"order":661},{"title":663,"slug":664,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":36,"order":666},{"title":668,"slug":669,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":41,"order":671},[3881,3882,3883,3884,3885,3886,3887,3888,3889,3890,3891,3892,3893,3894,3895,3896,3897,3898,3899,3900,3901,3902,3903,3904,3905,3906,3907,3908,3909,3910,3911,3912,3913,3914,3915,3916,3917,3918,3919,3920,3921,3922,3923,3924,3925,3926,3927,3928,3929,3930,3931,3932,3933,3934,3935,3936,3937,3938,3939,3940,3941,3942,3943,3944,3945,3946,3947,3948,3949,3950,3951,3952,3953,3954,3955,3956,3957,3958,3959,3960,3961,3962,3963,3964,3971,3974,3978,3981,3986,3991,3994,3999,4002,4004,4008,4011,4014,4018,4020,4025,4030,4033,4037,4041,4043,4047,4050,4054,4059,4065,4067,4071,4073,4076,4080,4082,4086,4090,4095,4098,4102,4107,4111,4118,4122,4129,4131,4133,4138,4143,4150,4156,4157,4162,4164,4168,4172,4177,4179,4181,4186,4189,4191,4196,4199,4204,4208,4210,4214,4216,4218,4221,4225,4227,4230,4234,4236,4239,4242],{"title":5,"slug":6,"category":8,"tags":9,"type":10,"volume":9,"order":9},{"title":12,"slug":13,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":16},{"title":18,"slug":19,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":21},{"title":23,"slug":24,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":26},{"title":28,"slug":29,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":31},{"title":33,"slug":34,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":36},{"title":38,"slug":39,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":41},{"title":43,"slug":44,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":46},{"title":48,"slug":49,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":51},{"title":53,"slug":54,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":56},{"title":58,"slug":59,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":62},{"title":64,"slug":65,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":68},{"title":70,"slug":71,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":68},{"title":74,"slug":75,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":77},{"title":79,"slug":80,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":77},{"title":83,"slug":84,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":86},{"title":88,"slug":89,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":86},{"title":92,"slug":93,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":95},{"title":97,"slug":98,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":95},{"title":101,"slug":102,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":104},{"title":106,"slug":107,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":104},{"title":110,"slug":111,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":113},{"title":115,"slug":116,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":118},{"title":120,"slug":121,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":123},{"title":125,"slug":126,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":128},{"title":130,"slug":131,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":133},{"title":135,"slug":136,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":139},{"title":141,"slug":142,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":144},{"title":146,"slug":147,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":149},{"title":151,"slug":152,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":154},{"title":156,"slug":157,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":159},{"title":161,"slug":162,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":164},{"title":166,"slug":167,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":169},{"title":171,"slug":172,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":174},{"title":176,"slug":177,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":179},{"title":181,"slug":182,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":184},{"title":186,"slug":187,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":189},{"title":191,"slug":192,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":195},{"title":197,"slug":198,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":200},{"title":202,"slug":203,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":205},{"title":207,"slug":208,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":210},{"title":212,"slug":213,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":215},{"title":217,"slug":218,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":220},{"title":222,"slug":223,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":225},{"title":227,"slug":228,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":230},{"title":232,"slug":233,"category":235,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":236},{"title":238,"slug":239,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":242},{"title":244,"slug":245,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":247},{"title":249,"slug":250,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":252},{"title":254,"slug":255,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":257},{"title":259,"slug":260,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":262},{"title":264,"slug":265,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":267},{"title":269,"slug":270,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":272},{"title":274,"slug":275,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":277},{"title":279,"slug":280,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":282},{"title":284,"slug":285,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":287},{"title":289,"slug":290,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":292},{"title":294,"slug":295,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":297},{"title":299,"slug":300,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":302},{"title":304,"slug":305,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":307},{"title":309,"slug":310,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":312},{"title":314,"slug":315,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":317},{"title":319,"slug":320,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":322},{"title":324,"slug":325,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":327},{"title":329,"slug":330,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":332},{"title":334,"slug":335,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":337},{"title":339,"slug":340,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":342},{"title":344,"slug":345,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":347},{"title":349,"slug":350,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":352},{"title":354,"slug":355,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":357},{"title":359,"slug":360,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":362},{"title":364,"slug":365,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":367},{"title":369,"slug":370,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":372},{"title":374,"slug":375,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":377},{"title":379,"slug":380,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":382},{"title":384,"slug":385,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":387},{"title":389,"slug":390,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":392},{"title":394,"slug":395,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":397},{"title":399,"slug":400,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":402},{"title":404,"slug":405,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":407},{"title":409,"slug":410,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":412},{"title":414,"slug":415,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":417},{"title":419,"slug":420,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":422},{"title":424,"slug":425,"category":427,"tags":3965,"type":429,"volume":9,"order":428},[427,3966,3967,3968,3969,3970,646],"主题目录","投资认知","企业判断","财报估值","公司案例",{"title":431,"slug":432,"category":427,"tags":3972,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":434},[3825,3973,58],"买股票就是买公司",{"title":438,"slug":439,"category":427,"tags":3975,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":441},[3825,3976,3977],"投资理解","投资者",{"title":443,"slug":444,"category":427,"tags":3979,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":446},[3825,33,3980],"看懂生意",{"title":448,"slug":449,"category":427,"tags":3982,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":451},[3825,3983,3984,3985],"风险控制","不做空","不加杠杆",{"title":453,"slug":454,"category":427,"tags":3987,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":456},[3825,3988,3989,3990],"宏观经济","市场波动","牛熊市",{"title":458,"slug":459,"category":427,"tags":3992,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":461},[3825,18,222,3993],"学习方法",{"title":463,"slug":464,"category":427,"tags":3995,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":466},[3996,3997,3998],"商业经营","伟大企业","长坡厚雪",{"title":469,"slug":470,"category":427,"tags":4000,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":472},[3996,70,4001],"投资确定性",{"title":474,"slug":475,"category":427,"tags":4003,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":477},[3996,74,146],{"title":479,"slug":480,"category":427,"tags":4005,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":482},[3996,4006,4007,53],"好产品","用户导向",{"title":484,"slug":485,"category":427,"tags":4009,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":487},[3996,141,4010],"产品",{"title":135,"slug":489,"category":427,"tags":4012,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":491},[3996,135,4013],"基业长青",{"title":493,"slug":494,"category":427,"tags":4015,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":496},[3825,4016,88,4017],"财务报表","ROE",{"title":499,"slug":500,"category":427,"tags":4019,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":502},[3825,3826,3827,3828],{"title":504,"slug":505,"category":427,"tags":4021,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":507},[3825,4022,115,4023,4024],"折现率","市盈率","估值案例",{"title":509,"slug":510,"category":427,"tags":4026,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":512},[3825,4027,4028,4029],"分红","回购","资本配置",{"title":514,"slug":515,"category":427,"tags":4031,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":517},[3825,120,4032,115],"集中投资",{"title":519,"slug":520,"category":427,"tags":4034,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":522},[3825,4035,4036,3828],"买卖时机","持有",{"title":524,"slug":525,"category":427,"tags":4038,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":527},[3825,125,4039,4040],"套利","量化交易",{"title":529,"slug":530,"category":427,"tags":4042,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":532},[3996,12,18,186],{"title":535,"slug":536,"category":427,"tags":4044,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":538},[3996,4045,4046,227],"Stop Doing List","聚焦",{"title":540,"slug":541,"category":427,"tags":4048,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":543},[3996,4049,48],"创新",{"title":545,"slug":546,"category":427,"tags":4051,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":548},[3996,4052,4053,161],"营销","广告",{"title":550,"slug":551,"category":427,"tags":4055,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":553},[3996,4056,4057,4058],"管理层","团队","激励",{"title":555,"slug":556,"category":427,"tags":4060,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":558},[3996,4061,4062,4063,4064],"收购","并购","多元化","多品牌",{"title":560,"slug":561,"category":427,"tags":4066,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":563},[3970,1144,4010,171],{"title":566,"slug":567,"category":427,"tags":4068,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":569},[3970,1144,4069,4070],"乔布斯","库克",{"title":571,"slug":572,"category":427,"tags":4072,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":574},[3970,1144,3828,4029],{"title":576,"slug":577,"category":427,"tags":4074,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":579},[3970,4075,141,70],"贵州茅台",{"title":581,"slug":582,"category":427,"tags":4077,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":584},[3970,4075,4078,4079],"公司治理","i茅台",{"title":586,"slug":587,"category":427,"tags":4081,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":589},[3970,4075,3828,120],{"title":591,"slug":592,"category":427,"tags":4083,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":594},[3970,4084,4085],"小霸王","步步高",{"title":596,"slug":597,"category":427,"tags":4087,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":599},[3970,596,4088,4089],"丁磊","游戏",{"title":601,"slug":602,"category":427,"tags":4091,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":604},[3970,4092,4093,4094],"阿里巴巴","雅虎","马云",{"title":606,"slug":607,"category":427,"tags":4096,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":609},[3970,606,4097],"情绪价值",{"title":611,"slug":612,"category":427,"tags":4099,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":614},[3970,4100,4101],"消费电子","日本制造",{"title":617,"slug":618,"category":427,"tags":4103,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":620},[3970,4104,4105,4106],"游戏行业","游戏公司","中国游戏",{"title":622,"slug":623,"category":427,"tags":4108,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":625},[3970,4109,4110],"互联网平台","科技产业",{"title":627,"slug":628,"category":427,"tags":4112,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":630},[3970,4113,4114,4115,4116,4117],"零售","电商","服务业","教育培训","航空",{"title":632,"slug":633,"category":427,"tags":4119,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":635},[3970,4120,4121],"能源","工业企业",{"title":637,"slug":638,"category":427,"tags":4123,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":640},[3970,4124,4125,4126,1242,4127,4128],"格力","美的","比亚迪","招商银行","瑞贝卡",{"title":642,"slug":643,"category":427,"tags":4130,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":645},[646,23,28],{"title":648,"slug":649,"category":427,"tags":4132,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":651},[646,217,222,227],{"title":653,"slug":654,"category":427,"tags":4134,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":656},[646,4135,4136,4137],"职业","创业","享受过程",{"title":658,"slug":659,"category":427,"tags":4139,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":661},[646,4140,4141,4142],"家庭","孩子","教育",{"title":663,"slug":664,"category":427,"tags":4144,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":666},[646,4145,4146,4147,4148,4149],"开放心态","阅读","AI","公益","社会责任",{"title":668,"slug":669,"category":427,"tags":4151,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":671},[646,4152,4153,4154,4155],"健康","睡眠","Zone 2","高尔夫",{"title":673,"slug":674,"category":676,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":677},{"title":676,"slug":679,"category":676,"tags":4158,"type":682,"volume":9,"order":681},[4159,4160,847,4161],"公司","人物","投资案例",{"title":684,"slug":685,"category":676,"tags":4163,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":687},[1144,70,135,156,4070,4069],{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":676,"tags":4165,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":693},[4166,4167,12,135,23],"黄峥","拼多多",{"title":696,"slug":697,"category":676,"tags":4169,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":699},[606,4170,151,4097,4171,141,74],"王宁","IP",{"title":701,"slug":702,"category":676,"tags":4173,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":704},[4170,606,4174,4175,23,4176],"创始人","CEO","商业理解",{"title":706,"slug":707,"category":676,"tags":4178,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":709},[4075,141,88,33,120],{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":676,"tags":4180,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":714},[596,4088,4089,88,120],{"title":716,"slug":717,"category":676,"tags":4182,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":719},[1439,4183,4184,4185,70],"马化腾","微信","微信支付",{"title":721,"slug":722,"category":676,"tags":4187,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":724},[4092,4094,135,70,4188],"保留",{"title":726,"slug":727,"category":676,"tags":4190,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":729},[4167,4166,12,161,70],{"title":731,"slug":732,"category":676,"tags":4192,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":734},[4193,4194,4195,4147,74,33],"英伟达","黄仁勋","CUDA",{"title":736,"slug":737,"category":676,"tags":4197,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":739},[4198,4089,161,176,33],"任天堂",{"title":741,"slug":742,"category":676,"tags":4200,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":744},[4201,4202,135,4063,33,4203],"GE","通用电气","反思",{"title":746,"slug":747,"category":676,"tags":4205,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":749},[4206,4207,4142,70,4188],"新东方","俞敏洪",{"title":751,"slug":752,"category":676,"tags":4209,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":754},[1232,58,3973,18,227],{"title":756,"slug":757,"category":676,"tags":4211,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":759},[1228,222,4212,33,4213],"逆向思维","Costco",{"title":761,"slug":762,"category":676,"tags":4215,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":764},[4069,1144,181,186,135],{"title":766,"slug":767,"category":676,"tags":4217,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":769},[4070,1144,4175,222,135],{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":676,"tags":4219,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":774},[4094,4092,135,18,4220],"理想主义",{"title":776,"slug":777,"category":676,"tags":4222,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":779},[4088,596,4089,4223,4224],"现金","企业家",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":676,"tags":4226,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":784},[4183,1439,4184,4185,70],{"title":786,"slug":787,"category":676,"tags":4228,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":789},[4207,4206,4142,4229,4224],"韧性",{"title":791,"slug":792,"category":676,"tags":4231,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":794},[4232,4075,181,4233,141],"季克良","质量文化",{"title":796,"slug":797,"category":676,"tags":4235,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":799},[4194,4193,4147,4195,4224],{"title":801,"slug":802,"category":676,"tags":4237,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":804},[4238,847,70,135,4161],"公司清单",{"title":807,"slug":808,"category":676,"tags":4240,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":810},[4241,847,4224,58,4174],"人物清单",{"title":812,"slug":813,"category":676,"tags":4243,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":815},[4244,847,33,70,4161],"重估案例",1791623726230]