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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":519,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":41,"date":9,"description":521,"editor":2277,"extension":2278,"meta":2279,"navigation":2280,"order":522,"path":2281,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2282,"seoDescription":521,"seoTitle":2283,"slug":520,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":1009,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2284,"sourceStatus":2285,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2286,"stem":2287,"summary":521,"tags":2288,"type":435,"updatedAt":2293,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":2294,"_collection":2295},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-08.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2271},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,849,856,859,874,877,888,900,909,912,924,936,939,944,959,962,965,976,979,985,988,994,997,1002,1005,1015,1018,1023,1028,1031,1034,1039,1042,1048,1051,1060,1063,1068,1071,1074,1077,1083,1086,1091,1095,1105,1110,1113,1118,1121,1124,1127,1132,1135,1140,1143,1148,1151,1156,1162,1171,1174,1180,1185,1188,1196,1199,1204,1207,1212,1215,1222,1228,1242,1248,1251,1254,1261,1266,1269,1274,1277,1286,1289,1292,1295,1298,1307,1310,1315,1318,1321,1327,1333,1336,1341,1344,1349,1352,1358,1361,1366,1369,1374,1377,1385,1388,1393,1398,1401,1407,1413,1416,1425,1428,1433,1436,1439,1447,1453,1462,1465,1468,1476,1483,1488,1495,1501,1511,1516,1519,1528,1531,1536,1542,1545,1548,1553,1556,1559,1567,1570,1573,1580,1593,1598,1601,1609,1614,1617,1620,1625,1628,1637,1642,1645,1648,1654,1657,1660,1664,1667,1678,1683,1686,1689,1692,1695,1698,1701,1704,1707,1710,1713,1716,1719,1722,1727,1730,1735,1738,1743,1746,1751,1756,1762,1767,1780,1785,1788,1791,1794,1807,1810,1816,1823,1827,1830,1841,1849,1852,1859,1862,1872,1875,1880,1883,1886,1891,1894,1899,1902,1907,1910,1917,1928,1937,1946,1949,1958,1961,1969,1972,1977,1980,1988,1991,1996,1999,2004,2010,2013,2016,2021,2024,2029,2034,2037,2043,2046,2055,2064,2069,2076,2081,2084,2094,2100,2112,2118,2124,2127,2132,2135,2140,2145,2148,2153,2156,2161,2164,2170,2173,2176,2181,2184,2187,2190,2193,2196,2216,2232,2235,2238,2241,2246,2249,2252,2255,2263,2266],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-持有就是买入","第一节 持有就是买入",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：持有等于买入，是否在讲“为卖出而买入(buy to sell )”和“为持有而买入( buy to keep)”的区别呢？",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 这个东西没有标准答案，但我认为用buy to keep 和 buy to sell 来区别是个非常好的说法。",[827,838,839,840,844,845,848],{},"事实上，“持有”在每个时点确实是等于“买入”的，",[841,842,115],"a",{"href":843},"\u002Fjihuichengben","就是这个意思！然而，如果一个投资者真的那么想的话，就很容易掉到每时每刻都在想“是不是高估了”“是不是高估了”“是不是高估了”，然后过多地注意市场而不是聚焦在生意本身上。投资的本质在于生意本身，对市场的关注越高，",[841,846,125],{"href":847},"\u002Ftouji","的成分越高。",[827,850,851,852,855],{},"所谓的",[841,853,58],{"href":854},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者是应该可以完全不在乎某公司现在及未来是不是上市公司的因素而决定买卖该公司的。(2014-08-30)",[827,857,858],{},"网友：你在奥马哈能学到什么？",[827,860,861,863,864,866,867,870,871,873],{},[833,862,835],{}," 虽然我觉得自己算是很理解",[841,865,58],{"href":854},"了，但对",[833,868,869],{},"巴菲特","理解的那种厚度还是很震惊。这次",[833,872,869],{},"在回答一个做私募股权投资(PrivateEquity )的小伙子的问题时，只说了：“私募股权投资是买入为了卖出。如果我是你，我会试着赚一些钱然后买一些好公司来持有。",[827,875,876],{},"”如果是我，说的意思可能差不多，但好像不能做到这么简单。",[827,878,879,880,883,884,887],{},"网友：如何理解持有=买入？我也是重仓",[833,881,882],{},"苹果","和",[833,885,886],{},"茅台","，但总是会害怕国际宏观环境。身边的人也总是提醒要控制仓位，后面跌了可以买更多。很希望能够有您这种持股不动的心态！",[827,889,890,892,893,869,896,899],{},[833,891,835],{}," 理论上(忽略所有交易成本的前提下)，持有=买入，或者买人=持有，其实不是一种观点，而是一个事实。我以前也为这个观点困惑过很长时间，",[833,894,895],{},"直到有次跟",[833,897,898],{},"聊天时我问他，持有=买入吗？他说当然啊，这是一个事实啊","!那之后我就突然觉得自己明白了。不过，明不明白这点，和投资好坏似乎也没太大关系。",[827,901,902,903,905,906,908],{},"对你的",[833,904,882],{},"或",[833,907,886],{},"而言，不管你想买进、卖出或不动，和你已经持有多少、成本多少实际上都是无关的，是个独立的投资决策。(2020-10-12)",[827,910,911],{},"网友：如果你持有三只股票，其中一只泡沫比较大，其他两只估值相对合理，你会调整仓位把泡沫的股票换到另外两只吗？",[827,913,914,916,917,919,920,923],{},[833,915,835],{}," 我觉得难得的好公司最好还是拿着，换来换去比较复杂。前段时间在我管的一个朋友账号上把",[833,918,882],{},"换到",[833,921,922],{},"伯克希尔","了，换亏了不是(少赚了)?最近股市这个涨法我也看不懂，可能真的和利息太低了有关吧。",[827,925,926,927,929,930,883,932,935],{},"我一直不太习惯买很高P\u002FE 的公司，但我们现在主要持有的",[833,928,882],{},"、",[833,931,886],{},[833,933,934],{},"腾讯","P\u002FE都是30多倍了(具体多少还没看)，持有=买入啊，对我也是个考验哈。准备复习一下大道以前讲的东西，努力往前看10年20年。",[827,937,938],{},"网友：不买入一不持有吗？我在迷茫假如我持有一只股票，但是现在我又不想加仓了，是否干脆减仓甚至清仓？",[827,940,941,943],{},[833,942,835],{}," 你的问题其实有点复杂的。持有确实等于买入，但未必就等于要加仓，因为往往你还要想看看是不是还有别的机会？不过，我自己经常就是有钱的时候就加仓了。",[827,945,946,948,949,951,952,954,955,958],{},[833,947,596],{},"从不到一块美元一直加到几十块美元(后来1分4了)，",[833,950,882],{},"从300多美元(1分7之前)一直加到170-180美元，",[833,953,886],{},"前段时间500多元的那次还加了不少，都是因为刚好有",[841,956,88],{"href":957},"\u002Fxianjinliu","了。",[827,960,961],{},"其实从10年后看回来，这个问题没那么复杂。你迷惘的原因其实是因为害怕股价短期的变化。(2019-09-04)",[827,963,964],{},"网友：大道面对不确定性的时候会焦虑不安吗？总觉得自己的决策和行动都达不到100%，而且永远没可能达到100%。在自己觉得能看懂的情况下，选择重仓后，会害怕吗？",[827,966,967,969,970,972,973,975],{},[833,968,835],{}," 不用margin买了自己喜欢的生意，为什么会焦虑？",[833,971,882],{},"掉的时候我会焦虑吗？",[833,974,886],{},"掉了这么多我会焦虑吗？当你觉得焦虑的时候就说明你没搞懂你买的生意，那你就该离场了。买了不懂的生意是很容易焦虑的，也很难拿住。(2024-08-08)",[827,977,978],{},"真懂了就拿得住，不需要什么技巧。",[827,980,981,982,984],{},"再说一下关于拿住的观点：买股票(公司)和其曾经到过什么价无关，卖股票和买入价无关。不要老以为谁是高手，也不要老想着成为高手，老老实实找些自己能看懂的好公司，好价钱时买下拿着就好了。",[833,983,869],{},"讲过，最好的公司就是永远都不想卖的公司。一生找到几个这种公司，想不发达也难啊。(2015-01-13)",[827,986,987],{},"网友：持有和买入一样吗？为什么？看了你的博客，理解的还不是特别清晰。想请教一下。",[827,989,990,993],{},[833,991,992],{},"段永平：不管大家怎么看，事实上持有和买入没区别。比如你可以把股票卖掉，手里拿着现金，再决定是否买入。"," （2019-05-31）",[827,995,996],{},"网友s：好像大道十年前说有区别，原话我记不清了。",[827,998,999,1001],{},[833,1000,835],{}," 10年前我可能确实觉得不是一回事，后来想通了。（2019-05-31）",[827,1003,1004],{},"网友：记得以前您准备问巴菲特一个问题，买入和持有一个公司是否一样？好像您当时和巴菲特聊着聊着自己就明白了答案。可我一直不太确定这个答案，我觉得买入和持有差在一个机会成本上，所以买入需要安全边际，持有的话，条件要稍微宽松一些，这样理解对吗？",[827,1006,1007,1010,1011,1014],{},[833,1008,1009],{},"段永平"," ：",[833,1012,1013],{},"持有等于买入是个事实，不是观点。买入＝持有。"," （2019-06-16）",[827,1016,1017],{},"网友：这些天体会到“价格不是那么重要了”",[827,1019,1020,1022],{},[833,1021,1009],{}," ：嗯，八成赌茅台上了？持有就等于买入。说“赌在茅台上”是个玩笑哈，我的意思是买了茅台的人会更容易容易理解这句话。（2019-08-23）",[827,1024,1025,1027],{},[833,1026,1009],{}," ：持有＝买入是个fact，看不看得明白是你的造化。（2020-06-24）",[827,1029,1030],{},"网友f：回复@大道无形我有型：2015-04-29段永平：理论上讲，持有＝买入，其实不是一个观点而是一个事实，所以如果人们没有持有一家非上市公司的心态的话，每时每刻都会有卖出的冲动的。",[827,1032,1033],{},"至少在我自己能懂的公司范围内目前还没有哪家公司可以吸引我用苹果去换的。从持有等于买入的角度看，实际上我每天都在买入苹果。",[827,1035,1036,1038],{},[833,1037,835],{}," 其实我以前也有点困惑，后来碰上老巴时专门问了一下他。这其实是老巴的观点，我也想通了，非常认同他的观点。（2019-05-31）",[827,1040,1041],{},"网友p：价值低估时，会买入并持有，价值合理时会持有，但未必会买入。理解不了持有＝买入？",[827,1043,1044,1047],{},[833,1045,1046],{},"段永平：理论上讲持有＝买入其实不是一个观点而是一个事实，所以如果人们没有持有一家非上市公司的心态的话，每时每刻都会有卖出的冲动的"," 。（2015-04-30）",[827,1049,1050],{},"网友：我想请教的问题是：不买入＝不持有吗？（或者不买入＝卖出吗？）谢谢",[827,1052,1053,1055,1056,1059],{},[833,1054,1009],{}," ：这是玩文字游戏吗？",[833,1057,1058],{},"持有＝买入，买入＝持有，等号两边可以互换是定义"," 。别的大家自己想吧，不在我的兴趣范围内。（2019-09-02）",[827,1061,1062],{},"网友：有没有一只你认为不会卖掉的股票？",[827,1064,1065,1067],{},[833,1066,835],{}," 每只股票我买的时候都是打算不卖的。",[827,1069,1070],{},"网友：最近两年，在119元买过茅台，在13元多买过中国神话，在7.5港币买过民生银行H等几只股票，几乎都是在比较低的价格买的，也几乎有2-3成的利润都走了，后来它们的价格都接近翻倍。",[827,1072,1073],{},"想来想去，还是觉得段总那句“好公司要拿住”很有道理，也对这句话理解得深了一些，好公司不要轻易卖了，除非出现很离谱的价格才考虑离场。",[827,1075,1076],{},"跟着段总博客学习了好几年，觉得在选公司时，谨慎了很多，严格了很多，能够懂的股票屈指可数，但是在“拿住”这个事上，需要好好反思。",[827,1078,1079,1082],{},[833,1080,1081],{},"段永平：真懂了就拿得住，不需要什么技巧。再说一下关于“拿住”的观点：买股票（公司）和其曾经到过什么价没关，卖股票和买入价无关。不要老以为谁是“高手”，也不要老想着成为“高手”，老老实实找些自己能看懂的好公司，好价钱时买下拿着就好了。老巴讲过，最好的公司就是永远都不想卖的公司。一生找到几个这种公司，想不发达也难啊。"," （2015-01-13）",[827,1084,1085],{},"网友：行家一出手，就知有没有。会卖是重要的，会买是非常重要的。对价值投资者来说买入已经决定成功与否了。",[827,1087,1088,1090],{},[833,1089,835],{}," 其实会不会买和会不会卖对价值投资是一件事，看成两件事就表示有投机成分在里面了。（2012-06-26）",[822,1092,1094],{"id":1093},"第二节-买入和它到过什么价无关","第二节 买入：和它到过什么价无关",[827,1096,1097,1098,1100,1101,1104],{},"网友：我目前在等",[833,1099,886],{},"再便宜一点点，我很明白跟",[841,1102,70],{"href":1103},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","好的公司一直站在一起的感觉。",[827,1106,1107,1109],{},[833,1108,835],{}," 如果你知道你在等什么，那当然要等！如果你不知道在等什么，那你等什么？（2025-06-08）",[827,1111,1112],{},"网友：最近我遇到的另外一个问题是，当股市整体已经不再便宜时，如果发现一只价格合理的股票，是应该买入还是耐心等待很长时间？",[827,1114,1115,1117],{},[833,1116,835],{}," 呵呵，价格合理的股票不一定非买不可。我的观点是只有价格不太合理的时候才是机会啊。",[827,1119,1120],{},"有时候可能会等得很难受，尤其是大牛市的时候。",[827,1122,1123],{},"Buffett说过，最难的事是什么都不做。呵呵，他都觉得难，我们觉得难也就很正常了。（2010-03-01）",[827,1125,1126],{},"网友：请教，您如何确定买入网易／通用电器的时间与节奏呢？或者说您是用什么心态等待这么低的价格，为什么没有提前大笔买入，是依靠什么条件做的判断？",[827,1128,1129,1131],{},[833,1130,835],{}," 我只有一个标准，就是自己觉得便宜才买。比方说我认为ge值20，我可能到15才开始买一点，但到10块以下就下手重很多了。重仓买到便宜股票是多少要些运气的。天天盯住股市时好像会比较难做到。（2010-03-01）",[827,1133,1134],{},"网友：便宜多少才算便宜呢？真是个模糊的区别，不过既然看好长期价值，就应该耐心的持有，越低越买。不知道对不对啊",[827,1136,1137,1139],{},[833,1138,835],{}," 价值不变的情况下，价格越低越买，当然对咯。（2010-03-03）",[827,1141,1142],{},"网友：您很幸运没有遇到这种情况，但在假设的情况下您会允许本来盈利的但因为经济危机等突发事件一直跌倒价格大大低于价值，再用额外的资金加码么？是不是还是会及时出售？我想了解一下您的处理方法。",[827,1144,1145,1147],{},[833,1146,835],{}," 如果价格远远低于价值那为什么还要卖呢？除非你借钱被margin call了。如果有现金为什么不加码呢？有可能不加，因为可能会发现更便宜的。如果是短期要用的钱为什么会投资到股市里呢？投机就会。我做投资就是为了好玩，不然怎么打发时间？（2010-03-17）",[827,1149,1150],{},"网友：请问如何把握用2元或5元买入价值10元的股票？为什么6元时不买？",[827,1152,1153,1155],{},[833,1154,835],{}," 6元也可能买。我一般的目标是买我认为价值被低估50%或以上的股票。（2010-03-22）",[827,1157,1158,1159,1161],{},"网友：投资一个公司，你会不会想别人为什么会低价卖给你．你又为什么可以高价卖出去这个问题？这是不是一种",[841,1160,125],{"href":847},"的心理啊？",[827,1163,1164,1166,1167,1170],{},[833,1165,1009],{}," ：呵呵，这个问题很有趣。实际上，",[833,1168,1169],{},"我买的时候是不考虑是不是有人从我手里买的。我要假设如果这不是个上市企业这个价钱我还买不买。你如果明白这点了，价值投资的最基本的概念就有了，反之亦然"," 。（2010-04-02）",[827,1172,1173],{},"网友：假设有个公司现在股价20元／股，上年度每股收益1.6元，估计15年内利润年增长率5%—8%。这样的公司算便宜吗？",[827,1175,1176,1179],{},[833,1177,1178],{},"段永平：便不便宜是要根据你自己的能力来定的。如果你有足够钱按市值买下这个公司，你愿意吗？为什么？有没有更好的选择？买了以后能睡好觉吗？等你回答完这些问题之后你就知道便不便宜了"," 。（2010-05-15）",[827,1181,1182],{},[833,1183,1184],{},"博文：价值投资难吗？（2011-09-04）",[827,1186,1187],{},"网友：价值投资的机会不是分析出来的，而是等出来的，当然和用合理的价格买优秀企业好像有矛盾，段大哥怎么看？",[827,1189,1190,1010,1192,1195],{},[833,1191,1009],{},[833,1193,1194],{},"我个人认为其实大部分情况下，优秀的企业都是处在合理的价格区间。合理的价格大概就是可买可不买的价钱。偶尔会有不合理的时候，那往往就是机会，如果你能识别的话。"," （2010-11-01）",[827,1197,1198],{},"网友：一般来说优秀的企业没有合理的价格，所以也需要等，这样想对不对？",[827,1200,1201,1203],{},[833,1202,835],{}," 也要分析也要等。（2010-11-01）",[827,1205,1206],{},"网友：您是否投资过护城河（含企业文化）不怎么好的企业？获利如何？比如一个企业价格很便宜或者虽价格一般但业务模式非常好那种。（当年的腾讯和Netflix应该算后一类吧）",[827,1208,1209,1211],{},[833,1210,835],{}," 价格一般是什么意思？当你认为苹果值5000亿时，1000亿的价格就还是好价格，虽然50亿时可以是更好的价格。（2011-01-22）",[827,1213,1214],{},"网友S：段总的这第三句话入木三分，直达事物的本质，学习受教了，让我有一种豁然开朗的感觉。",[827,1216,1217,1010,1219],{},[833,1218,1009],{},[833,1220,1221],{},"股票是由每个买家自己“定价”的，到你“自己”觉得便宜的时候才可以买，实际上和市场（别人）无关。啥时你能看懂这句话，你的股票生涯基本上就很有机会持续赚钱了。如果看不懂其实也没关系，因为大概85%的人是永远看不懂这句话的，这也是这些人早晚会亏在股市上的根本原因。",[827,1223,1224,1227],{},[833,1225,1226],{},"非常有趣的是，我发现其实大部分从事“投资”行业的“专业”人士其实也不是真的很明白这句话。"," （2012-04-14）",[827,1229,1230,1010,1232,1241],{},[833,1231,1009],{},[833,1233,1234,1235,1237,1238,1240],{},"right business，right people，right price，长期经营！其实就是",[841,1236,88],{"href":957},"折现的意思。好公司的未来好，未来",[841,1239,88],{"href":957},"折现好，就算眼前价钱高一点点也是合算的"," 。（2012-07-28）",[827,1243,1244,1247],{},[833,1245,1246],{},"段永平：这是关注短期关注市场的人才会问的问题。我不考虑这个问题。我关注长期，看不懂的不碰。任何想市场，想时机的做法，可能都是错误的，我不看市场，我看生意。你说某只股票贵，how do you know？站在现在看10年前，估计什么都是贵的。你站在10年后看现在，能看懂而且便宜的公司，买就行了。"," （2018-09-30）",[827,1249,1250],{},"08．乐趣引用：笑评李剑投资语录1．好股、好价、长期持有、适当分散；",[827,1252,1253],{},"网友：记得你说过买股票就是买公司，跟上不上市没有任何关系。在2017年底我极度看好拼多多（当时不知道您投了拼多多），认为其具有right business& right people，于是在其上市时投入了相当大比例的个人身家买了拼多多股票，在其股价剧烈波动时，一股没卖过。但让我不明白的是，我无法确定什么是不贵的价格。",[827,1255,1256,1257,1260],{},"在这个投资案例上，我是不是不够",[841,1258,12],{"href":1259},"\u002Fbenfen","？（因为投入了大部分身家）",[827,1262,1263,1265],{},[833,1264,835],{}," 平常心也许能帮上忙？无论你想买的时候还是想卖的时候，先回到原点，想下这是不是件正确的事情。买和其曾经到过的价钱无关，卖和你的成本无关。这样想，犯错的概率大概就低了？如果你认为你看到了这两点才投的，那和本分没有任何冲突啊。（2019-03-14）",[827,1267,1268],{},"网友：你说过好公司价格不太重要，过的去就行，时间到啦什么都会有的。我想请问背后的逻辑是什么，本质上怎么理解？你能以苹果或者茅台为例子讲讲吗？",[827,1270,1271,1273],{},[833,1272,1009],{}," ：用10年看就明白了。今天你看茅台，你觉得120买的和180买的有多大区别？当然，你如果知道茅台会到120则不一样。很久以前我说过，苹果400块很便宜，500块也很便宜，到600时我依然说还是很便宜（在1\u002F7之前），现在看是不是就容易明白了？",[827,1275,1276],{},"我们当年买茅台就是从大概180左右开始买的（塑化剂事件），买的时候还在和一堆人吃饭时聊起过，结果当时有人还说，现在买太早了，我说，现在就已经很便宜了，买了再说，继续掉的话，有现金就继续买，结果一直买到120。感觉好像就是不久前发生的一样。（2019-09-12）",[827,1278,1279,1281,1282,1285],{},[833,1280,835],{}," 1，",[833,1283,1284],{},"好价和长期持有的关系是什么呢？其实是好股长期持有就是好价了，而不是买到了好价钱的意思。"," （2019-10-14）",[827,1287,1288],{},"乐趣：段总这句话，我的理解：现在看10年前的好股，天天都是好价。10年后看现在好股的股价，无论怎么起伏，也都是好价。",[827,1290,1291],{},"09．博文：《引用巴菲特语录》",[827,1293,1294],{},"不必等到企业降至谷底才去购买它的股票。所选企业股票的售价要低于你所认为的它的价值并且企业要由诚实而有能力的人经营。但是，你若能以低于一家企业目前所值的钱买进它的股份，你对它的管理有信心，同时你又买进了一批类似于该企业的股份，那你赚钱就指日可待了。",[827,1296,1297],{},"网友：想了解一下反观08年的经济危机您觉得当时在哪些判断上您犯过错误？比如有没这种情况，当时持有的股票价格已经超出合理价值但因为没有估计到危机的严重性没有及时出售。",[827,1299,1300,1302,1303,1306],{},[833,1301,835],{}," 我运气好。",[833,1304,1305],{},"一个公司的价值不太会因为一个危机发生大的改变，但价格会。所以，危机时往往是加码的机会，因为有很多好公司的价格会掉到价值以下（很多）。"," 及时出售和抄底一样，其实是投机的概念。",[827,1308,1309],{},"网友：1000美元的观点我也是完全不同意，苹果是否现在就进入跌势还是很难判断，不过正受到所有人关注，成为一只超级热门股了，价值投资者应该回避啊。",[827,1311,1312,1314],{},[833,1313,835],{}," 所谓价值投资者追求的是价值，与其是否热门无关。所有真正好公司都有热门的那一天。最关键是平常心去看一家公司到底价值何在，不要理市场的冷热。（2012-04-10）",[827,1316,1317],{},"10．引用：好公司的价钱",[827,1319,1320],{},"“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”",[827,1322,1323,1324,1326],{},"网友：大道，您好，从网易博客到雪球，受益良多。不借钱、不做空，不做不懂的事。好生意、好领导、好价格，要挑三好生。未来",[841,1325,88],{"href":957},"的折现就是企业内在价值。一家公司的企业文化是您最看重的。也是您对价值投资理论的重要贡献和发展吧。之前确实没人提出过。感谢感恩！",[827,1328,1329,1332],{},[833,1330,1331],{},"段永平：其实我对好价钱已经不太提了，合适价钱就好"," 。（2019-05-20）",[827,1334,1335],{},"网友：需要众人皆抛，你独买的勇气啊，难道您买网易和GE的时候没有感觉到您不同与常人的豪情和勇气。",[827,1337,1338,1340],{},[833,1339,1009],{}," ：当有人非要把金子按铜的价钱卖给你的时候，你是不需要勇气的，你只要确认那真的是金就行了（有可能其实是镀金的铁块或石头）。买网易时我觉得有点孤独，好像这个世界就我一个人再买。买GE时我很平淡，略微有点兴奋。我想可能是我有进步了。（2010-03-05）",[827,1342,1343],{},"网友：那您是怎么判断出网易的价值的呢？是因为了解吗？",[827,1345,1346,1348],{},[833,1347,835],{}," 是的。就像自己经营的公司。（2010-03-27）",[827,1350,1351],{},"网友：“我的判断标准就是价值”。能谈一下，您是如何在8-9年前就形成这个观念的吗？",[827,1353,1354,1357],{},[833,1355,1356],{},"段永平：朦朦胧胧差不多吧，现在更坚定了而已。我从一开始就是个价值投资者。我买股票时总是假设如果我有足够多的钱的话我是否会把整个公司买下来。"," （2010-03-27）",[827,1359,1360],{},"网友：我认为价值投资的核心是买好公司，可是国内A股的上市公司既没有淘汰退出机制，也没有透明的监督制约，怎样价值投资呢？问问段总的看法。",[827,1362,1363,1365],{},[833,1364,1009],{}," ：A股里也有好公司，美股里也有大把烂公司。同股同权的情况下不知道用什么道理可以保证小股民的权利，美国也不行。你如果在好价格买好公司，哪里都一样，什么时候都一样。如果你觉得暂时没有好公司就先休息。（2010-03-30）",[827,1367,1368],{},"网友：在我看来，国内几家家电公司都相差不大，长虹不诚实就不算了。段总，我想问的是如果现在TCL或海信也老总出事了，股价大跌八成，你一样抄底吗？",[827,1370,1371,1373],{},[833,1372,835],{}," 我没抄过底啊。我只有觉得便宜才买。大掉不等于便宜。（2010-04-16）",[827,1375,1376],{},"网友：yahoo还会再便宜些的。您去阿里巴巴有没有了解一下马云他们如果准备赎回股份的话大概报价了么？",[827,1378,1379,1010,1381,1384],{},[833,1380,1009],{},[833,1382,1383],{},"你认为yahoo还会更便宜的理由是因为你眼睛盯着市场，在琢磨别人会怎么看yahoo，但最重要的是你自己怎么看。你如果总是想着别人谁会来买，那就说明你还没有上道呢"," 。（2010-07-22）",[827,1386,1387],{},"网友：李开复的新浪微博里有建议大家买雅虎股票，坐等淘宝和支付宝上市的观点。下面还有不少博友互动，观点基本跟段总一致。英雄所见略同？",[827,1389,1390,1392],{},[833,1391,835],{}," 如果淘宝不上市怎么办？（2010-11-02）",[827,1394,1395,1397],{},[833,1396,835],{}," “让子弹飞一会儿”倒是价值投资者需要经常说的话。（2011-01-25）",[827,1399,1400],{},"网友：按照文章说法，300多在苹果的历史最高位买入，且面临乔布斯离去的不确定；巴菲特在IBM历史最高位附近买入；这些都算不上价值投资，完全应该叫追高投机买……",[827,1402,1403,1406],{},[833,1404,1405],{},"段永平：买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱没关系，就像卖股票和买入成本无关一样。搞不懂这点就是trader"," ，当然做个赚钱的trader也不错哈。（2012-01-28）",[827,1408,1409,1412],{},[833,1410,1411],{},"博文：You Must Believe!"," （2012-04-26）",[827,1414,1415],{},"网友：（关于苹果）很想现在的价钱继续买入，但之前330的时候已经买了，现在很想继续但前面买入的价格成为了一个障碍。怎么办呢大道？你之前说的抄底不是好事因为会买少了我现在有点体会了，不知道是不是说的就是这种感觉？",[827,1417,1418,1420,1421,1424],{},[833,1419,835],{}," 呵呵，前面买得低再买就容易有心理障碍了。最重要还是“理性”吧，",[833,1422,1423],{},"假设你今天刚刚结束冬眠，起来看看有啥股票可以买的，然后再决定。卖的时候也差不多这感觉"," 。（2012-01-30）",[827,1426,1427],{},"网友：价值投资的前提有三：了解你自己，了解你所买的东西，了解市场的内在逻辑。",[827,1429,1430,1432],{},[833,1431,1009],{}," ：你所了解的东西是客观的，不会因人而异。市场的内在逻辑指得是什么？投资最重要的一点实际上就是能够忽略市场。（2012-02-14）",[827,1434,1435],{},"网友：闲话投研之三：奥马哈杂感",[827,1437,1438],{},"1．孤独的价值伯克希尔股东会恐怕是奥马哈小城一年一度的狂欢节，大小股东们不远千里万里携家带口前来朝圣，泱泱数万众齐聚一堂聆听教诲……",[827,1440,1441,1443,1444],{},[833,1442,835],{}," 说起孤独，让我想起当年买网易的时候。从开始买到网易跌破1块钱满3个月的那天总共两个多月的时间里（这句话绕不？），每天的买单可能有一半都是我的（每天只有几千股成交），当时确实感觉很孤独，尤其是最后一天，居然一下买了接近50万股（相对于现在的200万股）。",[833,1445,1446],{},"据说那天卖的人是害怕3个月满了会被摘牌。",[827,1448,1449,1452],{},[833,1450,1451],{},"买的那个人的想法非常简单，认为买的是公司，上不上市无所谓。孤独有时候确实价值连城。"," （2012-05-21）",[827,1454,1455,1457,1458,1461],{},[833,1456,835],{}," 接飞刀容易中招的原因是：人们在接飞刀的时候往往想的是这个股票过去到过什么价，而不是想的这个公司值多少钱。",[833,1459,1460],{},"个人认为在买股票的任何时候，总是应该假设自己刚刚从外星来到地球，然后平常心地看这个股票该不该在这个价钱买，包括接飞刀的时候"," 。（2013-02-01）",[827,1463,1464],{},"04．引用：《浙商》杂志访问段永平",[827,1466,1467],{},"网友：我有时候能找到不错的股票，但是觉得价格太高，但是越等价却越高，段总对越等价越高怎么看？",[827,1469,1470,1010,1472,1475],{},[833,1471,1009],{},[833,1473,1474],{},"如果确实是好公司，价格越等越高有什么不正常吗？"," （2013-06-17）",[827,1477,1478,1479,1482],{},"网友：格雷厄姆的低价买入，回归价值就卖出，是我买入银行股的主要原因，可是没有最低，只有更低！银行股伤我不轻。耗去两年落得一生迷茫。巴菲特的",[841,1480,1481],{"href":1103},"生意模式","论在中国内地赶不上不停变换的政策风云，快进快出的基金大佬更是蛊惑人心的肇事高手。",[827,1484,1485,1487],{},[833,1486,835],{}," 也许你需要分清低价格和低于价值的区别。（2013-06-27）",[827,1489,1490,1491,1494],{},"网友：请教您如果像TESLA这样试探性买之后股价涨了的是加仓呢？还是继续",[841,1492,197],{"href":1493},"\u002Fnaixin","等待市场给机会？",[827,1496,1497,1500],{},[833,1498,1499],{},"段永平：平常心看，每一次买卖其实都是独立的。"," 如果你知道在等什么你当然可以等。像tesla这种公司如果你之前没买，再掉下去你也是不应该买的。（2013-07-04）",[827,1502,1503,1504,1507,1508],{},"网友：什么样的投资才是好的投资？你能用一句话概括你心目中的好投资对象吗？例如：",[833,1505,1506],{},"巴菲特：市价低于未来收益折现值的好企业"," ；",[833,1509,1510],{},"格雷厄姆：市价远低于内在价值的企业。",[827,1512,1513,1515],{},[833,1514,835],{}," 老巴说的你不满意吗？（2013-08-05）",[827,1517,1518],{},"网友：我的经历证明了，想买跌＝追涨。",[827,1520,1521,1523,1524,1527],{},[833,1522,1009],{}," ：当合适的价钱出现时，除非你知道等什么，不然你在等什么？",[833,1525,1526],{},"其实从长期的角度看，一点点价钱的差异远不如公司好坏来的重要。"," （2014-07-26）",[827,1529,1530],{},"网友：请教下大道：关于买入伟大公司择时的问题。您现在新进的资金，会找个市场犯错时相对便宜的买入，还是不择时的买入？（茅台、苹果、腾讯）",[827,1532,1533,1535],{},[833,1534,835],{}," 择时非常难，我非常不擅长。如果资金是在我喜欢的公司大掉的时候，我会非常舒服地把钱放进去。但如果刚好在公司近期涨了很多的时候或者是近期可能有些大事件的时候，我可能会选择稍微等一下。比如我刚好近期就有些钱还闲着（比例很低，5%以下），但想着大选在即，要不等到大选后再说？",[827,1537,1538,1541],{},[833,1539,1540],{},"原则上，我觉得最好的办法可能是不择时，只想10年后的情况，总体回报也可能是最好的。"," （2020-10-18）",[827,1543,1544],{},"【引用】乔布斯曾建议谷歌CEO业务瘦身：不要成为微软",[827,1546,1547],{},"史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）传记显示，乔布斯曾呼吁谷歌CEO拉里·佩奇（Larry Page）专注于某些业务并放弃部……",[827,1549,1550,1552],{},[833,1551,835],{}," 突然想到一个例子，也许可以解释。投资其实就是个最好的例子。",[827,1554,1555],{},"我们也许永远都无法找到一个既完美又便宜的公司（股票），我们总是对自己的目标持有两种相反的观点（positive和negative），但这并不应该妨碍我们“该出手时就出手”。（2011-03-08）",[827,1557,1558],{},"网友：既要选好股，又得择好时。",[827,1560,1561,1563,1564],{},[833,1562,835],{}," ",[833,1565,1566],{},"号称自己会择时的人大多最后日子都不太好过。(2022-03-09)",[827,1568,1569],{},"“不择时”我的理解大概是：当我觉得从10年的角度看不贵而手里正好有钱的时候就可以买了，不需要等更便宜的价钱，因为这个价钱从10年的角度看已经很好了。(2023-02-23)",[827,1571,1572],{},"当合适的价钱出现时，除非你知道等什么，不然你在等什么？其实从长期的角度看，一点点价钱的差异远不如公司好坏来得重要。(2014-07-26)",[827,1574,1575,1576,1579],{},"我看到有些人手里拿着钱，看见别人赚钱心里着急。眼看着股价越涨越高，心里跟着越来越急，最后在“不择时”的鼓励下，一咬牙一跺脚就冲进去了。不择时不是追高的理由。真正不择时的人是真的看10年的人，而且人家钱大多早就已经在投资上了。",[833,1577,1578],{},"追高不择时的人们实际上对短期的下跌是非常难以忍受的","。(2023-02-23)",[827,1581,1582,1583,1585,1586,1588,1589,1592],{},"网友：以10年为标准看股价，",[833,1584,1009],{},"的忠告：我的满仓主义的最大的特点是不太在意“择时”，但非常在意“",[841,1587,70],{"href":1103},"+",[841,1590,135],{"href":1591},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","”，当然前提是10年后看回来的价格是便宜。必须牢记于心。",[827,1594,1595,1597],{},[833,1596,835],{}," 千万别把这句话当“追高”的壮胆鸡汤。（2025-09-18）",[827,1599,1600],{},"网友：有两只我一直研究的股票现在比较便宜，但还没到不用计算器都能看出来很便宜的时候。因为怕踏空，经常有想买入的冲动。又担心现在买了，股价到了很便宜的时候又没有子弹了。你如何处理这种情况？",[827,1602,1603,1563,1605,1608],{},[833,1604,835],{},[833,1606,1607],{},"我很少考虑踏空的问题，也不太担心没子弹","。实在觉得便宜就买，没钱了就打球去，没啥可着急的，不然永远都没法解决你那个问题。最重要的是，你是不是真的懂你想投的那个公司，如果还不是的话，那就再等等，多看看想想。",[827,1610,1611,1613],{},[833,1612,835],{}," 顺便讲一句，我个人认为抄底是投机的概念（没有褒贬的意思），价值投资者不应该寻求抄底。抄底是在看别人，而价值投资者只管在足够便宜的时候出手（不管别人怎么看）。",[827,1615,1616],{},"对我而言，如果一只股我抄底了，往往利润反而少，因为反弹时往往下不了手，所以容易失去机会。最典型的例子就是当年买万科时我们就正好抄到底了，郁闷啊（其实没那么郁闷，总比亏钱好），买的量远远少于我们的原计划。（2010-02-23）",[827,1618,1619],{},"网友：一直没弄懂，GE您咋就能买在最低价了呢？是运气好？还是知道底在哪里呢？",[827,1621,1622,1624],{},[833,1623,1009],{}," ：买到底部的就是运气！如果再掉多些我会买得更多。这世界没人知道底在哪，抄底就是投机。（2010-03-05）",[827,1626,1627],{},"网友：底没人能知道，短期是涨还是跌也是无法预测哦，但是便宜和贵我们还是能够知道的。模糊的正确胜过精确的错误。",[827,1629,1630,1632,1633,1636],{},[833,1631,1009],{}," ：呵呵，是不是底其实不重要。",[833,1634,1635],{},"抄底是投机的概念，眼睛是盯着别人的"," 。（2010-04-24）",[827,1638,1639,1641],{},[833,1640,1009],{}," ：呵呵，再说一遍，我认为抄底是投机的概念。",[827,1643,1644],{},"买股票时参考过去到过的价钱是危险的。抄底主要是看过去到过什么价，然后掉到一定程度跳进去，有可能真的会跳进去出不来的，如果不知道买的是什么的话。（2010-05-09）",[827,1646,1647],{},"网友：话虽如此，但段总是在已经连续大跌的美股市场抄底明显折价的美股，而信奉价值投资的各位博友，热衷的却是于现在就参与到全球表现一枝独秀的A股抄底，担心诸位在国内房地产泡沫破灭，地方债风险充分暴露，经济短期大调整的时候，会遭遇不小的损伤。段总虽常说不太了解A股，在此关键时刻，难道没有一两句关于A股市场的话要提点给大家？",[827,1649,1650,1653],{},[833,1651,1652],{},"段永平：总觉得抄底是投机者的做法。我眼里没什么a股，美股市场，我只关心公司。"," （2011-08-18）",[827,1655,1656],{},"网友：大道您觉得您是否有点滞后了投AI，现在投会不会泡沫（老巴说不要参与人声鼎沸），于AI您也是敢为天下后吗",[827,1658,1659],{},"大道：那你觉得我投苹果是不是更晚了。我2011年才投苹果。苹果上市可是70年代的事情啊，那时候你爸爸都可能才上幼儿园？茅台就更不用说了。巴菲特的意思你没看懂，先多看几遍吧。刚刚查了一下，苹果是1980年上市的，但成立于70年代。印象有误，但大致是对的。（2026-09-11）",[822,1661,1663],{"id":1662},"第三节-卖出和你的成本无关","第三节 卖出：和你的成本无关",[827,1665,1666],{},"网友：我想请问段总，在2001-2009年的整个主要持有过程中，网易静态的PE和PB最高达到了多少？不问最低，因为我想了解段总一直不卖的原因是它始终没有高估还是有过高估而对这公司前途实在太看好而不卖的？（这8-9年中网易是否出现过显著高估？）",[827,1668,1669,1010,1671,1677],{},[833,1670,1009],{},[833,1672,1673,1674,1676],{},"不知道当时的pe，也不知道什么是pb，想的就只有所谓未来",[841,1675,88],{"href":957},"的概念（连折现都好像没算过）。只有能看懂公司和生意才能做到这一点。前面早就说过，卖股票和成本无关，"," 所以任何人想问为何能持有网易到100多倍的博友请参考这一条。（2010-06-10）",[827,1679,1680,1357],{},[833,1681,1682],{},"1．什么时候卖股票",[827,1684,1685],{},"这是很多人提的问题。",[827,1687,1688],{},"我其实也没有答案。",[827,1690,1691],{},"但是我有个理解，就是无论什么时候卖都不要和买的成本联系起来。",[827,1693,1694],{},"该卖的理由可能有很多，唯一不该用的理由就是“我已经赚钱了”。",[827,1696,1697],{},"不然的话，就很容易把好不容易找到的好公司在便宜的价钱就卖了（也会在亏钱时该卖的不卖）。",[827,1699,1700],{},"买的时候也一样。买的理由可以有很多，但这只股票曾经到过什么价位最好不要作为你买的理由。",[827,1702,1703],{},"我的判断标准就是价值。",[827,1705,1706],{},"这也是我能拿住网易8-9年的道理。",[827,1708,1709],{},"我最早买网易大概平均价在1块左右（相当于现在0.25），大部分卖的价钱大约在30-35（现在价）左右。",[827,1711,1712],{},"在持有的这8年到9年当中，我可能每天都会被卖价所诱惑，我就是用这个道理抵抗住诱惑的（其实中间也买卖过一些，但是很小一部分。）",[827,1714,1715],{},"我卖的理由是需要换GE和Yahoo。所以为什么卖网易的问题已经回答过了。",[827,1717,1718],{},"我会一直保留一些网易的股票的。（2010-03-27）",[827,1720,1721],{},"网友x：你买万科的时候你说它至少值十块钱，到了你说的目标价位你卖出了，那么网易呢？你又是怎么能拿到那么高呢？",[827,1723,1724,1726],{},[833,1725,835],{}," 呵呵，你如果能够真正了解你的投资标的时才能拿得住啊。我对万科的了解就远远不如对网易的了解，所以赚的少点是合理的。（2010-03-18）",[827,1728,1729],{},"网友：这个20买，80卖就是我们现在水平，我的理解就是因为没有做过实业，不可能抓到10年翻100倍的股票，就算运气好抓到了一个，也一定不是重仓。我们一般也就是10年4倍，运气好一点在PE上再赚一点，10年5，6倍也就顶天了。这就是我最大的问题，而且现在看来还看不到解决这个问题的办法。",[827,1731,1732,1734],{},[833,1733,835],{}," 其实卖的时候不看成本也许能解决这个问题。平常心去不看成本不容易做到，平常人一般难有平常心的。（2010-07-07）",[827,1736,1737],{},"网友：这人很厉害，说话也实在，我发现我这段时间也有提高，好像眼光又能长那么1-2年了，原来大概在1-2年的眼光，现在似乎有3-4年，呵呵。",[827,1739,1740,1742],{},[833,1741,1009],{}," ：这里说的就是“理性”问题，卖的时候不要考虑成本（盈亏），买的时候不要想过去到过什么价。不过，投资里还是有“买”有“卖”的，不要太绝对理解“不卖”的意思，尤其是发现买错了的时候。（2011-12-14）",[827,1744,1745],{},"网友：找到网易这样的公司很重要，拿住更重要，涨一百多倍无动于衷尤其重要，最最重要的是涨了一百多倍不掉下来，哈哈。期待段总下一次的发现。",[827,1747,1748,1750],{},[833,1749,835],{}," 大概很少有人在涨了100倍依然不动心的，所以最关键的还是平常心去看基本面，忘记成本，忽略市场。（2012-03-14）",[827,1752,1753,1755],{},[833,1754,835],{}," 这里表达的东西其实和苹果无关。昨天下午和一个朋友打球时，他告诉我他上午“又”买苹果了，大概$560\u002F股。记得上一次他买苹果是当苹果$360的时候，结果买了以后就设了个$399的卖单。我劝他别卖，因为这价太便宜，可他最后还是卖了。今天，其实苹果还是那个苹果，但市场价到过600多以后，似乎在500多下买单就容易多了，呵呵。",[827,1757,1758,1759],{},"其实，",[833,1760,1761],{},"卖股票和成本无关，买股票和其到过多少价也无关。最重要其实也是唯一重要的是公司本身。",[827,1763,1764],{},[833,1765,1766],{},"什么时候确实可以完全忽略市场的影响的时候，对价值投资的理解就算是很到位了。",[827,1768,1769],{},[833,1770,1771,1772,1775,1776,1779],{},"当然理解价值投资不等于就能在股市上赚到钱，就像知道要“",[841,1773,23],{"href":1774},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","”的人不一定具备“",[841,1777,28],{"href":1778},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","”的能力一样。",[827,1781,1782],{},[833,1783,1784],{},"“把事情做对”需要有很多年的辛苦积累，不是看一两本书或者上几个“高手”的博客就能学会的。",[827,1786,1787],{},"大概由于这些天苹果掉得很厉害，昨天上午有个朋友打电话问我苹果发生什么事了。我说我不知道，但我重复了《功夫熊猫》里Master XiFu（就是广东话里师傅的意思，好莱坞的人大概以为中国人讲的都是广东话）的那句话：‘You Must Believe!’",[827,1789,1790],{},"很多人读过很多书，知道很多投资的教条，but they just don't believe. Maybe，they don't believe because they don't really understand. Who knows.",[827,1792,1793],{},"这里的‘believe’千万不要理解成简单的自信，这个“believe”的建立是需要很多年的经验和理解的，但不是有很多年就一定可以理解的意思。我见过很多有很多年“经验”的人，其实从来就没有真正花时间去“理解”过。（2012-04-26）",[827,1795,1796,1799,1800,1802,1803,1806],{},[833,1797,1798],{},"段永平：买股票和成本无关，买股票和其以前到过什么价无关。有关的东西永远只有一个，就是企业的内在价值。"," （公司未来",[841,1801,88],{"href":957},"的折现就是公司的内在价值）",[833,1804,1805],{},"想想周围有多少人卖股票的理由和成本的关系，以及买股票时有多少人会说这只股票曾经到过多少钱吧。"," （2012-06-26）",[827,1808,1809],{},"网友：请教一下，为什么你说“会卖是师傅这句话”有投机成分？",[827,1811,1812,1815],{},[833,1813,1814],{},"段永平：所谓价值投资者的买卖都是和价值有关，比如卖的时候和成本是无关的。会卖是师傅的骨子里实际上考虑的是市场价和成本之间的关系，想这么做的人自然是非常关注市场对这个股票的态度而不是专注在企业的生意上。猜测而已。总而言之，真正理解的公司，买和卖的决定其实是差不多难度的"," 。（2012-07-04）",[827,1817,1818,1819,1822],{},"芒格主义： ",[833,1820,1821],{},"不管是对于私有企业的企业主还是上市公司的股东，进行买卖时参考的标准应该是企业内在价值而不是过往成交的纪录，这是最基本的价值概念，而且我认为永远也不会过时。","（2012-06-26）",[822,1824,1826],{"id":1825},"第四节-什么时候该卖","第四节 什么时候该卖",[827,1828,1829],{},"网友：持有伟大公司的股权，在高估的时候，是该卖出还是继续持有？",[827,1831,1832,1834,1835,1837,1838,1840],{},[833,1833,835],{}," 这是一个很难的问题，没有总是对的答案。",[833,1836,869],{},"的观点是一点点高估不应该卖，几乎每次他卖了后都被证明是错的。我现在也慢慢理解",[833,1839,869],{},"的观点了。找到一个伟大公司非常难，不要为一点点差价就卖掉了。(2019-03-20)",[827,1842,1843,1845,1846,1848],{},[833,1844,869],{},"在回答什么时候卖出伟大公司的时候说“never”！这个 never不容易懂，",[833,1847,869],{},"自己花了几十年才大致明白了。(2017-08-04)",[827,1850,1851],{},"网友：不能教条主义，散户还是遵循低估买入，高估卖出比较合适。非常对，只有这样才能维持散户的地位。(2019-06-22)",[827,1853,1854,1563,1856],{},[833,1855,835],{},[833,1857,1858],{},"伟大的公司要惜卖！伟大的公司卖掉后大概率很难买回来，而且因为手里拿着现金，很可能会投到没那么好的生意，损失会有可能是双重的。(2022-01-31)",[827,1860,1861],{},"网友：您买卖股票的标准是什么？",[827,1863,1864,1866,1867,905,1869,1871],{},[833,1865,835],{}," 因为买公司是基于好的",[841,1868,70],{"href":1103},[841,1870,135],{"href":1591},"，所以当觉得这两个方面长期来看出现不可修复的问题时，就要考虑离场了。(2022-03-03)",[827,1873,1874],{},"网友：请问一下学长，巴菲特怎么判断自己是否买错了股票呢？如果跌10%不是正好可以再买吗？",[827,1876,1877,1879],{},[833,1878,835],{}," 我不知道老巴是怎么判断的，但我可以说说我一般是怎么判断的。一般来讲，当我买一只股票时，一定会有个买的理由，同时也要看到负面的东西。当买的理由消失了或重要的负面东西增加到我不能接受的时候，我就会离场。太贵了有时会成为离场的理由。",[827,1881,1882],{},"如果所有的理由不变而只有价格掉到10%的话，当然是个好机会。但如果理由发生巨变的时候，也许有可能是要离场的。（2012-01-16）",[827,1884,1885],{},"网友：但斌问老巴：伟大的企业不增长了，那是否还要继续持有还是要卖出？",[827,1887,1888,1890],{},[833,1889,835],{}," 巴菲特回答得很清楚嘛。",[827,1892,1893],{},"网友：我的理解：1、犯错的时候卖出（因为巴菲特也会犯错，我记得博主说过以前投的时候有时你很紧张特别是犯错的时候，请教过巴老，巴老说过，投资就像打高尔夫，每次都一杆进洞，就不会有人玩了）；2、高估或企业价值减少时；3、有更好的品种时（也算是套利吧，如博主卖网易换GE和Yahoo）。不知总结的对不对？",[827,1895,1896,1898],{},[833,1897,835],{}," 1．你是指企业犯错吗？如果是企业犯错我不一定卖，要看明白是什么类型的错（麦肯锡7S），说不定也可能是再买的机会。后面两条同意。（2010-03-27）",[827,1900,1901],{},"网友：请问：卖出股票的判断标准就是价值；那么你是在股价接近价值时就逐渐卖出，还是在价格高出价值很多再卖出呢？",[827,1903,1904,1906],{},[833,1905,1009],{}," ：好像都有。看有没有别的地方用钱了。（2010-03-30）",[827,1908,1909],{},"04．【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[827,1911,1912,1913,1916],{},"36、",[833,1914,1915],{},"当然有时市场也会高估一家企业的价值，在这种情况下，我们会考虑把股份出售，另外有时虽然公司股价合理或甚至略微低估，但若是我们发现有更被低估的投资标的或是我们觉得比较熟悉了解的公司时，我们也会考虑出售股份"," 。",[827,1918,1919,1920,1927],{},"然而我们必须强调的是我们不会因为被投资公司的股价上涨或是因为我们已经持有一段时间，就把它们给卖掉，在华尔街名言中，最可笑的莫过于是“赚钱的人是不会破产的”，",[833,1921,1922,1923,1926],{},"我们很愿意无限期的持有一家公司的股份，只要这家公司所运用的资金可以产生令人满意的报酬、管理阶层优秀能干且",[841,1924,217],{"href":1925},"\u002Fzhengzhi","，同时市场对于其股价没有过度的高估。"," （1987）",[827,1929,1930],{},[833,1931,1932,1933,1936],{},"“如果你因为某样东西被低估而买入，那么当它价格接近你所计算的内在价值时，你就得考虑卖出。这很难。但如果你买入几家伟大的公司，那你就可以坐享其成。这可是件美事。”(",[833,1934,1935],{},"芒格",")",[827,1938,1939,1940,1942,1945],{},"这条大概要花很多年才能真明白，大概就是未来",[841,1941,88],{"href":957},[841,1943,97],{"href":1944},"\u002Fzhexian","的意思。我觉得自己现在大概有点明白了。(2012-06-26)",[827,1947,1948],{},"网友：请教一个卖股票的时机问题。比如你的股票已经到了你买的时候预想的目标价格，但是市场形势依然很好的话，你是安全第一，还是再等一等呢？记得你也表示过万科卖的早了一点，是不是后来有总结呢？",[827,1950,1951,1953,1954,1957],{},[833,1952,835],{}," 我一般觉得差不多，又正好需要用钱时就有可能卖。如果不需要钱时往往不会急着卖。",[833,1955,1956],{},"如果觉得贵得离谱时，我还是倾向于卖掉的"," 。一般来讲，“市场形势”很好时，大概就是卖股票的时候了。不过，如果真是特别好的公司，稍微贵一点未必应该卖，不然往往买不回来，机会成本大。（2010-05-23）",[827,1959,1960],{},"网友：请教段兄，如果你是巴老，你会在98年可乐高估的情况下抛掉可乐么？如果网易也高估，你会卖出全部或大部分么？",[827,1962,1963,1965,1966,1968],{},[833,1964,835],{}," 大家如果能用未来",[841,1967,88],{"href":957},"折现来看这个问题的话，可能就不会那么困惑了。（2010-10-21）",[827,1970,1971],{},"网友：两年前，买了一只造纸企业股票，一路下跌，现在亏损50%，从一年前开始纠结该持有还是卖出。",[827,1973,1974,1976],{},[833,1975,835],{}," 一般而言，当自己的股票下跌时有很想卖的想法时，多数是你买了自己不了解的公司。（2013-03-26）",[827,1978,1979],{},"网友：您如何对待持有的公司出现阶段性的高估呢？",[827,1981,1982,1010,1984,1987],{},[833,1983,1009],{},[833,1985,1986],{},"真正的好公司非常非常难找，所以绝不要因为价格有点儿高就卖掉"," ，因为你非常可能会错失掉补回来的机会。而且拿着钱其实会增加犯错误的机会。从长期复利的角度看比较容易明白。（2014-08-30）",[827,1989,1990],{},"网友：一旦选中自己的目标后，好像无所事事了，觉得没什么事做，心里觉得很无聊，请问阿段您是怎么解决这种问题的？",[827,1992,1993,1995],{},[833,1994,1009],{}," ：你为什么会认为持有一个好公司是个问题？你要真觉得无聊，那就买几个烂公司吧，你会变得很忙的哈。（2015-02-02）",[827,1997,1998],{},"网友：在我们买入股票后，除了持续关注公司的产品与服务，关注公司管理以外，在财务指标方面，请问您关注哪些指标？在什么情况下您持有？在什么情况下您会卖出？",[827,2000,2001,2003],{},[833,2002,1009],{}," ：好的投资是不用卖的那种。（2015-02-11）",[827,2005,2006,2009],{},[833,2007,2008],{},"段永平：就投资而言，好公司最重要。（"," 何时卖不那么重要）。（2015-11-01）",[827,2011,2012],{},"芒格主义：如果你买了一个价值低估的股票，你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉，这是很难算的。但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司，你就坐那儿呆着就行了。（2012-06-26）",[827,2014,2015],{},"网友：呵呵，裸奔的董宝珍在400元时就说高了，这两天还四处与人辩论，看来是考验大家功力的时候了。相信芒格的话：伟大的公司不必总想着卖出它。",[827,2017,2018,2020],{},[833,2019,835],{}," 如果理解了就不需要功力，不理解裸奔也沒用。当然，理解是需要功力的。（2017-10-24）",[827,2022,2023],{},"网友：如果有一天苹果的价格很贵了（比如像07年50-60倍PE的茅台），而又没有更好的目标可买，您会怎么办，会卖出吗？",[827,2025,2026,2028],{},[833,2027,835],{}," 07年卖掉茅台的决定对不对？（2018-11-07）",[827,2030,2031,2033],{},[833,2032,1009],{}," ：所以，找到并确实伟大的公司最重要！（2018-11-17）",[827,2035,2036],{},"网友：大道说过卖股票时候两种原因：公司情况发生了变化，有更好的投资机会。如果遇到持有的股票价格高估，应该出掉么？我觉得即使价格高估也没有更好的投资机会的话，也应该留着吧，一旦卖了就买不回来了，税务上也合适。换句话说好公司不逃顶，能便宜卖就便宜买些，大道是这样么？",[827,2038,2039,2042],{},[833,2040,2041],{},"段永平：我同意好公司不逃顶"," 。（2019-03-18）",[827,2044,2045],{},"网友：有一个问题困惑我多年，当年您买入网易从一块钱拿到几十元，您怎么对网易估值的，而且涨到几十元的时候公司的市值也上去了，您心中当时毛估估网易值多少钱，在当时网易没有今天的这样盈利，网上有很多版本，您网易究竟是多少钱卖出的？",[827,2047,2048,2050,2051,2054],{},[833,2049,835],{}," 这是想知道八卦啊？我当年买的时候就是觉得他便宜，其实也不知道如何估值，但知道他们未来会有很好的盈利。",[833,2052,2053],{},"当时卖的时候大概赚了100多倍，如果没卖到现在可能有500倍了。所以不要轻易卖掉好公司哈"," 。（2019-03-20）",[827,2056,2057,2058,2060,2061,2063],{},"网友：大道，",[833,2059,869],{},"旗下",[833,2062,922],{},"·哈撒韦净利润暴跌59%，连续11个季度卖出股票，您怎么看？是廉颇老矣，还是美股要大暴跌，还可以信老巴吗？",[827,2065,2066,2068],{},[833,2067,835],{}," 你大概从来就没信过吧？（2025-08-05）",[827,2070,2071,2072,2075],{},"网友：假如长期看好一只股票并持有，也想",[841,2073,120],{"href":2074},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","，但是短期内价格增长太快，超过了我对它的估值不少，我应该先卖出等以后再买入吗？",[827,2077,2078,2080],{},[833,2079,835],{}," 我也想过这么做来着，谁不想赚差价啊，但这么做的结果基本上都是瞎忙半天还少赚了，所以以后就不再想干这种事情了。知其不可为也很重要啊。",[827,2082,2083],{},"“小投资者”之所以很容易一直是“小投资者”的原因也许有很多，但个人认为最重要的是他们可能会因为自己小而想赚快钱、大钱，从而铤而走险而不追求真理。其实这个世界上没有投资人不想赚大钱，知道什么不可为比知道什么可为要重要得多。",[827,2085,2086,2087,2089,2090,2093],{},"网友：",[841,2088,58],{"href":854},"者的投资体系中有",[841,2091,130],{"href":2092},"\u002Fzhisun","或者动态止盈的概念吗？",[827,2095,2096,2097,2099],{},"大道：",[841,2098,58],{"href":854},"的定义是什么？需要先搞清楚定义哈。（2025-12-01）",[827,2101,2102,2103,2105,2106,2108,2109,2111],{},"网友：大道您好，我认为",[841,2104,58],{"href":854},"没有",[841,2107,130],{"href":2092},"，只有止错。因为股价波动只是他人的看法并不是生意本身变了。但",[841,2110,58],{"href":854},"者关注的是生意本身，卖出往往是因为生意本身变质了。这种情况下本来对的生意变的错了，只能止错。我的理解恰当吗？",[827,2113,2114,2115,2117],{},"大道：是的，止盈止亏都是",[841,2116,125],{"href":847},"的概念。Gemini真好用，可以很容易看视频。我今天把黄峥16-19年接受的所有采访都看了一遍文字版，建议你也看看。YouTube上面有。（2025-12-01）",[827,2119,2120,2123],{},[833,2121,2122],{},"段永平：难得因为投资睡不好觉，拿着航空公司确实不踏实，总有想不透的东西。好吧，尊重老巴得想法，我也找机会撤了"," 。（2020-05-06）",[827,2125,2126],{},"网友：长期看比苹果贵多了。",[827,2128,2129,2131],{},[833,2130,835],{}," 是的，看来是自己内心的投机小心思躁动了一下。想着航空公司不会破产，两年回到正常运营以及正常股价，那就比苹果快了。可是仔细一想，就算是恢复正常运营了，代价也可能非常大，股价未必会回去哈。（2020-05-06）",[827,2133,2134],{},"网友：感觉老巴的疫情高参是盖茨，盖茨的观点比较悲观，认为病毒会长期存在。钟南山院士的观点似乎没那么悲观，国内目前的情况似乎也在趋于正常状态的过程中。投资果然是一个活到老学到老的行当。",[827,2136,2137,2139],{},[833,2138,835],{}," 我对找到办法对付疫情是乐观的，但无法知道什么时候以及最后会用什么方式来结束或共存。持有航空公司难受的地方是，不知道时间到底站在哪一边。持有苹果的感觉完全不一样，股价怎么掉都不会介意。还好我的大部位是苹果而不是航空公司。好吧，小赌怡情，愿赌服输！（2020-05-06）",[827,2141,2142,2144],{},[833,2143,835],{}," 终于在上个礼拜清空了达美。确实像老巴说的那样，这个生意可能已经变了。买股票就是买公司，航空公司的生意可能会在相当长的时间里很挣扎，不是我能搞明白的。（2020-08-07）",[827,2146,2147],{},"网友Q：记住了清盘完成后价格是28美元。时间成本才是最珍贵的成本。",[827,2149,2150,2152],{},[833,2151,835],{}," 是的，我们在达美上大概也赚了大几千万，比老巴的运气好。但我觉得老巴是对的，该出手时就要坚决出售。（2020-08-18）",[827,2154,2155],{},"网友：你不看好航空业为什么买达美航空？",[827,2157,2158,2160],{},[833,2159,835],{}," 从买入＝持有或者持有＝买入的角度看，我当时买入航空公司，其实等于卖了苹果去买入航空公司，虽然我是用最近多出来的现金。从10年或更长的角度看，似乎不是一个好的决策。",[827,2162,2163],{},"但好奇使然，我还是认真看了看老巴买的原因，似乎也觉得蛮有道理，所以买了1%的Dal（达美航空），纯属好玩。可能疫情之下，有点时间看看。",[827,2165,2166,2167,2169],{},"和上次重组以前比，现在几大航空公司实际上已经是有点准垄断了，所以在可见的未来，",[841,2168,70],{"href":1103},"也还是不错的。航空港的投资很大，新的竞争对手很难进入。",[827,2171,2172],{},"另外，买入也表达一下我对人类战胜病毒的信心。",[827,2174,2175],{},"网友：请教一个问题，你有没有碰到过一直价值低估的股票，经过三五年，仍然没有涨起来，这时该怎么办？",[827,2177,2178,2180],{},[833,2179,835],{}," 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