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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":493,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":16,"date":9,"description":495,"editor":2165,"extension":2166,"meta":2167,"navigation":2168,"order":496,"path":2169,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2170,"seoDescription":495,"seoTitle":2171,"slug":494,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":963,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2172,"sourceStatus":2173,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2174,"stem":2175,"summary":495,"tags":2176,"type":435,"updatedAt":2180,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":2181,"_collection":2182},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-09.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2157},"minimark",[821,826,830,865,872,885,888,894,897,902,905,910,913,916,919,924,927,932,935,940,943,948,951,956,959,965,968,973,976,981,984,989,995,1001,1004,1013,1019,1024,1027,1030,1034,1037,1046,1049,1070,1076,1082,1091,1103,1117,1126,1135,1152,1158,1169,1175,1184,1192,1198,1203,1212,1223,1232,1240,1243,1254,1260,1266,1278,1284,1292,1298,1303,1311,1316,1323,1326,1331,1334,1337,1342,1346,1352,1357,1363,1370,1376,1381,1399,1402,1412,1415,1421,1424,1429,1440,1443,1452,1455,1463,1466,1471,1474,1479,1482,1485,1488,1491,1496,1502,1512,1518,1524,1532,1535,1538,1547,1550,1555,1562,1567,1570,1575,1578,1584,1599,1604,1613,1618,1627,1641,1650,1655,1658,1666,1675,1687,1708,1711,1728,1737,1740,1743,1749,1754,1763,1774,1783,1804,1812,1824,1845,1851,1859,1862,1867,1875,1886,1894,1897,1909,1913,1916,1921,1924,1929,1932,1937,1943,1946,1951,1954,1963,1968,1974,1977,1982,1985,1988,1991,1994,2002,2005,2010,2015,2019,2026,2029,2038,2041,2044,2047,2052,2058,2063,2069,2074,2082,2085,2097,2102,2108,2111,2117,2120,2125,2128,2133,2136,2141,2144,2149,2152],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-财报的作用","第一节 财报的作用",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：您会把财报看得很细吗（除了三大表外）？会经常参加股东大会吗？",[827,831,832,836,837,840,841,864],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 我不是很经常看财报（所以说没有",[833,838,839],{},"巴菲特","用功）。比较在意的数字是几个：",[833,842,843,847,848,847,851,854,855,847,858,847,861],{},[844,845,64],"a",{"href":846},"\u002Ffuzhai","、",[844,849,79],{"href":850},"\u002Fjingxianjin",[844,852,88],{"href":853},"\u002Fxianjinliu","、开销合",[844,856,222],{"href":857},"\u002Flixing",[844,859,92],{"href":860},"\u002Fzhenshilirun",[844,862,106],{"href":863},"\u002Fjingzichan","。其他好像没了。",[827,866,867,868,871],{},"不知道三大表是什么。",[833,869,870],{},"我看财报主要用于排除公司，也就是说如果看完财报就不喜欢或看不懂的话，就不看了。"," 决定投进去的原因往往是其他的因素，UHAL是个例外。",[827,873,874,875,878,879,881,882,884],{},"也有没看过财报就投的，比如",[833,876,877],{},"伯克希尔","A。去年买了些",[833,880,877],{},"A并且做成了证书，就为了让",[833,883,839],{},"签个名，呵呵。结果到现在为止，已经赚了几顿饭钱了。很少参加股东大会，但基本每年都去奥马哈。(去年由于流感没去。)(2010-03-08)",[827,886,887],{},"网友：财务报表是很重要的噢，很多比较差劲的公司，作假什么的可以通过财报很快就的排掉了。2010年我读了几百份财报，比较合适投资的也就4个左右，真正投了3个。确实，光通过财报能找到的机会不会很多。但能有这么几个已经足够了。",[827,889,890,893],{},[833,891,892],{},"段永平：我觉得看财报最重要的就是剔除不想投的公司"," ，和你的思路是一样的。（2011-01-27）",[827,895,896],{},"网友：上市公司财报在股票投资中有多重要？个人学了很久，始终还是云里雾里。但给企业定性相对容易一些，比如它的口碑、名誉、企业赚钱如何、产品如何、犯过哪些错误、企业领导人的形象等等。如果定性了，在财务上只是大致了解的情况下，需要不需要非常深入地分析财报（毕竟没多少人是财务出身的），还是大致了解主要指标即可？",[827,898,899,901],{},[833,900,835],{}," 本人很少看财报，严格讲基本就没看过。但我经常会让别人帮我看，然后我会问一些我关心的数据。我个人认为能看财报还是很重要的，虽然一般很少有看了财报就能决定投资的机会，但看财报毕竟是开始了解企业的第一步。如果你觉得自己没办法看懂财报的公司，最好还是不要碰的好。如果你所有公司的财报都看不懂，那最好还是不要做投资的好，不然时间长了一定会亏的。（2011-01-27）",[827,903,904],{},"网友：我也不是太懂财报。我也是学习段大哥用毛估估。碰到不太懂的地方还是要搞明白才敢下重手的啊。",[827,906,907,909],{},[833,908,835],{}," 我自己确实很少看财报，主要是觉得有点繁琐。但是，我关注的公司是一定至少会找一个或以上的我了解和信任的人看财报，然后回答我关心的一些数据。千万别被我说的不看财报误导了，财报还是一定要看的，不然就无从毛“姑姑”了。（2010-12-10）",[827,911,912],{},"网友：请问大道您看财报主要看哪些会计指标？谢谢。",[827,914,915],{},"大道：我基本不看财报。（2026-08-20）",[827,917,918],{},"网友：段哥，您是否系统地学过会计啊？",[827,920,921,923],{},[833,922,835],{}," 没系统学过，有点基本概念。（2010-04-25）",[827,925,926],{},"网友：投资要学财务，您对学习财务有什么建议？",[827,928,929,931],{},[833,930,835],{}," 我也没学过财务。懂财务肯定有帮助，完全不懂就投资有点危险。我自己懂一些基本常识，觉得大致够用。（2010-04-30）",[827,933,934],{},"网友：我看报表都有点晕晕的，不知道从哪里下手。",[827,936,937,939],{},[833,938,835],{}," 我看报表也是晕晕的（2010-05-05）",[827,941,942],{},"网友：我猜，大部分人还是会打印复印的年报，因为电子年报，看着很累。",[827,944,945,947],{},[833,946,835],{}," 对你了解的公司有必要逐字逐句地去看报表吗？看看关键点就行了吧？如果你不了解的公司，怎么又会有他们的股票呢。（2011-04-05）",[827,949,950],{},"网友：我不怎么懂看年报，更不知道看那几个是关键点，段大哥能说一下怎么样看吗？",[827,952,953,955],{},[833,954,835],{}," 关心什么看什么或者担心什么看什么。（2011-04-06）",[827,957,958],{},"网友：了解一家公司看财务报表是最好的，除了这个，你还会去实地考察或者体验它的产品吗？",[827,960,961,964],{},[833,962,963],{},"段永平"," ：很多时候看财务报表是不够的，能了解的办法都要用吧。（2010-03-27）",[827,966,967],{},"网友：我想问问段总：在这漫长的等待和寻找新目标的过程中，您会做些什么来打发时间？能举一两件和投资有关的，而且您认为比较重要的事情吗？比如您会一直看上市公司的财务报表吗？",[827,969,970,972],{},[833,971,835],{}," 如果是完全新的公司，我会花些时间看财报。对比较了解的公司，财报以外的变化我觉得可能更重要些。当然，财报一直都是要看的。（2010-04-06）",[827,974,975],{},"网友：您真找会计师看过报表？还是自己看的呢？",[827,977,978,980],{},[833,979,835],{}," 是真找人看了。不过最关键的是一个朋友告诉我有这么大个馅饼在那儿，我不太信，所以才找人看其报表，主要是看他的资产是不是真有那么多。看的结果和朋友告诉我的一样。后来再从侧面去了解了一下这个公司，也大致明白为什么市场不喜欢，就毛估估下手了。遗憾的是正好买在了底部，所以买的不够多。（2012-02-02）",[827,982,983],{},"网友：UHAL——“许多人唯恐避之不及。也就是这时候，段永平请会计师审查财务报表，确定公司业绩没有造假”，光看财报无法确定公司业绩没有造假吧？而公司的原始凭证、业务往来之类如果它不配合也很难进行审计对吧？是不是大概判断、心里有数就ok啦？",[827,985,986,988],{},[833,987,835],{}," 找人看主要是看资产，不是看真假。美国这点好，假的概率小。UHAL的资产情况很复杂，花了很久（几个礼拜）才全面搞明白。（2012-02-02）",[827,990,991,992,994],{},"网友：请教",[844,993,88],{"href":853},"，应关注哪些方面，才能看出这个公司在作假呢？",[827,996,997,1000],{},[833,998,999],{},"段永平：假的真不了，时间会告诉你，但好像没有公式，否则就没人能作假了。不过，了解其产品，市场，竞争对手以及熟悉财务报表可能都能帮你发现可能的作假。"," （2010-09-21）",[827,1002,1003],{},"网友：有没鉴别财务报表作假的化繁为简的招数？",[827,1005,1006,1008,1009,1012],{},[833,1007,835],{}," 这个我不懂，我投资是不太看财报的（早期看过一点点，不觉得有用）。一般来说，不了解的公司不要碰，了解的公司不太可能不知道他们是不是有意做假的。",[833,1010,1011],{},"如果你连业务的作假都看不到，那财报做假就更难看到了。"," （2019-09-19）",[827,1014,1015,1016,1018],{},"网友：未来",[844,1017,88],{"href":853},"折现我们到底该从哪下手学习这种思维方式？现在看到财务报表，还是觉得有点眼花。",[827,1020,1021,1023],{},[833,1022,835],{}," 大概只有一个办法，那就是拥有这家公司的心态。你要真有这种心态，其实不用学就会了，因为那都是真金白银啊。我发现虽然很多人说起来都是要用拥有公司的心态去买股票，但绝大多数实际上只是停留在口头上，一到关键时刻就会掉链子。（2012-02-11）",[827,1025,1026],{},"网友：段哥，有好商业模式和好企业文化的公司，财报大概率也会很好吗？",[827,1028,1029],{},"大道：财报早晚会好的，关键是你的“财报好”的定义是什么？某个季度吗？ 我对财报的定义是：未来十年财报的总和。（2026-08-24）",[822,1031,1033],{"id":1032},"第二节-现金流与真实利润","第二节 现金流与真实利润",[827,1035,1036],{},"网友：向您请教两个问题：",[827,1038,1039,1040,1042,1043,1045],{},"1、您在谈及网易、yahoo时谈了市值与现金，没有谈",[844,1041,64],{"href":846},"，是否您认为",[844,1044,64],{"href":846},"与企业价值无关。",[827,1047,1048],{},"2、您认为ebit、净利润等等，从哪个方面考虑利润好些。",[827,1050,1051,1053,1054,1056,1057,1059,1060,1069],{},[833,1052,835],{}," 如果只讲现金的话，我指的就是",[844,1055,79],{"href":850},"，就是减去",[844,1058,64],{"href":846},"后的。你的第2个问题我不太懂。",[833,1061,1062,1063,1065,1066,1068],{},"我一般看",[844,1064,88],{"href":853},"和利润。有些公司的利润挺假的，从",[844,1067,88],{"href":853},"能看出来。"," 有空你可以看看Buffett写给股东的信，里面都有，我不可能解释的比他好。（2010-02-14）",[827,1071,1072,1075],{},[833,1073,1074],{},"巴菲特："," 除非是经历销售量的巨幅成长，否则一家好的企业定义上应该是指那些可以产生大量现金的公司。（1984年致股东信）",[827,1077,1078,1079,1081],{},"网友：报表中的净利润能看成是净",[844,1080,88],{"href":853},"量吗？",[827,1083,1084,1090],{},[833,1085,1086,1087,1089],{},"段永平：不能。但一般如果净利润大于",[844,1088,88],{"href":853},"时一定要更小心，要看清楚利润到底是些什么（当然平时也要看）"," 。（2010-05-08）",[827,1092,1093,1094,1096,1097,1099,1100,1102],{},"网友：我能看到的部分大概是存货和应收账款变多了，没有很仔细地看．以后看到",[844,1095,88],{"href":853},"长期少于利润的我直接把它滤过去呗，不用小心了，直接省心，那您经常说的这个",[844,1098,88],{"href":853},"的确是财务上的那个",[844,1101,88],{"href":853},"吧？",[827,1104,1105,1107,1108],{},[833,1106,835],{}," 还有别的意思吗？一般财务不理解的地方时，",[833,1109,1110,1111,1113,1114,1116],{},"时间足够长的情况下，",[844,1112,88],{"href":853},"实际上就是利润（或叫基本等于），你想想看什么道理。我有时会把两个东西混一起说是因为我总是假设很长的时间。如果只看一年或几年，他的差别可以很大，有差别时往往要小心，尤其是",[844,1115,88],{"href":853},"老是远小于利润时。",[827,1118,1119,1120,1122,1123,1125],{},"但是，有些公司在投放期的利润往往是大于",[844,1121,88],{"href":853},"的，比如淘宝头几年，",[844,1124,88],{"href":853},"有可能是负的（花的钱比进来的钱多，不算发行股票的话），现在情况怎么样不知道。（2010-05-27）",[827,1127,1128,1129,1131,1132,1134],{},"网友：我看了一家公司过去六七年的报表，",[844,1130,88],{"href":853},"的总和是利润总和的一半左右。如果一家公司持续这样，您会看它的利润还是",[844,1133,88],{"href":853},"?",[827,1136,1137,1139,1140,1142,1143,1145,1146,1151],{},[833,1138,835],{}," 如果",[844,1141,88],{"href":853},"少于利润的话就要小心了，要看它的钱花在哪里，是否确实对未来的发展有好处，不然会不见的。长期",[844,1144,88],{"href":853},"少于利润不是一件好事，要仔细看财报。",[833,1147,1148,1150],{},[844,1149,88],{"href":853},"多于利润往往是由于折旧或预收等原因","。不管是什么原因，最好能明白。",[827,1153,1154,1155,1157],{},"网友：您一般认为，怎样的一种",[844,1156,88],{"href":853},"状况是比较安全和良性的？比如说与营收相比吧。如果认为每个行业差异性是很大的，可以用您原来作CEO时的BBK，或现在的GA、yahoo来举例说明。",[827,1159,1160],{},[833,1161,1162,1163,1165,1166,1168],{},"段永平：很难说什么就一定安全，但不安全的很容易说。比如，一家公司营业额很大，但",[844,1164,88],{"href":853},"只有营业额的1-2%。我会觉得如果这种情况不是暂时的，这家公司就很危险，或者叫不安全。对没有债务的公司而言，短期的",[844,1167,88],{"href":853},"多少好像不会对安全形成威胁。",[827,1170,1171,1172,1174],{},"GA和Yahoo的",[844,1173,88],{"href":853},"目前都还不错。（2010-04-04）",[827,1176,1177,1178,1180,1181,1183],{},"网友：对",[844,1179,88],{"href":853},"的认识我也在学习中，经营",[844,1182,88],{"href":853},"为负值的情况应＝企业在这一期中花的钱大于收到的钱，但并不说明企业状况就差。",[827,1185,1186,1188,1189,1191],{},[833,1187,835],{}," 是的。有时有些在投资期，",[844,1190,88],{"href":853},"会有很长一段时间是负的。（2010-04-19）",[827,1193,1194,1195,1197],{},"网友：段总，你觉得像万科等一些地产公司，他们的经营性",[844,1196,88],{"href":853},"经常为负的，你觉得这样会不会危险？",[827,1199,1200,1202],{},[833,1201,835],{}," 对有些公司而言总有一天会的。如果整个行业都如此，则对有些公司而言后果很严重。（2010-09-03）",[827,1204,1205,1206,1208,1209,1211],{},"网友：最近学习过程中有个问题想不通，国内财报经营性",[844,1207,88],{"href":853},"是加了折旧和摊销的，但折旧和摊销并不实际的产生",[844,1210,88],{"href":853},"，怎么深入理解这点呢？",[827,1213,1214,1216,1217,1219,1220,1222],{},[833,1215,835],{}," 折旧和摊销是不能算为利润（或叫计入成本）的",[844,1218,88],{"href":853},"（如果这个公司有",[844,1221,88],{"href":853},"的话）。（2011-03-04）",[827,1224,1225,1226,1228,1229,1231],{},"网友：这家公司过去10年销售收入平均增长42%营业利润平均增长28.5%净利润平均增长29%而",[844,1227,88],{"href":853},"量却增长了108%不明白，为什么经营",[844,1230,88],{"href":853},"量会比净利润的平均增速要高3倍。还请段大哥点解啊。",[827,1233,1234,1236,1237,1239],{},[833,1235,835],{}," 某一年有可能，年年如此不太可能吧？你搞明白",[844,1238,88],{"href":853},"是什么利润是什么就自然明白了。不懂基本概念怎么说你也还是不明白。（2012-03-01）",[827,1241,1242],{},"网友：有些公司赚了钱还要追加投入才能保证再赚，有的公司可以把赚的钱大量分红，而公司赚钱能力不受影响。",[827,1244,1245,1247,1248,1250,1251,1253],{},[833,1246,835],{}," 未来",[844,1249,88],{"href":853},"的意思是扣除了再投资以后的现金增加量。长期来讲未来",[844,1252,88],{"href":853},"是最说明问题的。（2011-09-07）",[827,1255,1256,1259],{},[833,1257,1258],{},"芒格：有两种生意：第一种每年挣12%，年底可以把钱拿回来；第二种每年挣12%，但是利润必须重新投入运营——永远也看不到现金。这让我想到了一个家伙，他看着自己所有（不能变现的）陈旧设备说：“这就是我的全部利润了。”我们可不喜欢这种生意。"," （《芒格主义》，2012-06-26）",[827,1261,1262,1263,1265],{},"网友：请教您一下，李嘉诚说：任何发展中的业务，一定要让业绩达致正数的",[844,1264,88],{"href":853},"。这句话是什么意思啊？",[827,1267,1268,1274,1275,1277],{},[833,1269,1270,1271,1273],{},"段永平：长期来讲，没有正的",[844,1272,88],{"href":853},"的业务是不可能有利润的。"," 没有利润的业务当然是不行的。你可以看看什么叫",[844,1276,88],{"href":853},"就明白了。（2010-04-19）",[827,1279,1280,1281,1283],{},"网友：贝索斯一直强调自己的自由",[844,1282,88],{"href":853},"，这点大道怎么看？",[827,1285,1286,1288,1289,1291],{},[833,1287,835],{}," 自由",[844,1290,88],{"href":853},"好一定会反映在利润上，不知道为什么看不到。我还没读财报，回头有空再慢慢看。觉得amzn的生意模式确实不错，但再好的东西也得有个好价钱才行。（2012-04-27）",[827,1293,1294,1297],{},[833,1295,1296],{},"段永平：沃伦·巴菲特曾经向股东推荐了几本书，有一本书是《杰克·韦尔奇自传》，你去看那本书，你会发现韦尔奇对企业的文化问题是很在意的，所以你可以想象巴菲特对此也很在乎。"," 他不是像有的人说的只看财报。只看财报只会看到一个公司的历史。我看财报不读得那么细，但是我找专业人士看，别人看完以后给我一个结论，对我来讲就OK了。",[827,1299,1300],{},[833,1301,1302],{},"但是我在乎利润、成本这些数据里面到底是由哪些东西组成的，你要知道它真实反映的东西是什么。而且你要把数据连续几个季度甚至几年来看，你跟踪一家公司久了，你就知道他是在说谎还是说真话。",[827,1304,1305],{},[833,1306,1307,1308,1310],{},"好多公司看起来赚很多钱，",[844,1309,88],{"href":853},"却一直在减少。那就有危险了。其实这些巴菲特早说过，人们都知道，但是投资的时候就会糊涂。很多人管他们自己叫投资，我却说他们只是for fun，他们很在乎别人满不满意（这家公司），真正的投资者绝对是“目中无人”的，脑子里盯的就是这个企业，他不看周围有没有人买，他最好希望别人都不买。",[827,1312,1313],{},[833,1314,1315],{},"同样，如果我做一个上市公司，我也不理（华尔街）他们，我该干吗干吗，股价高低跟我没有关系的。",[827,1317,1318,1319,1322],{},"所以我买公司的时候，",[833,1320,1321],{},"我有一个很大的鉴别因素就是，这家公司的行为跟华尔街对他的影响有多大的关联度？如果关联度越大，我买他的机会就越低。华尔街没什么错，华尔街永远是对的，它永远代表不同人的想法。但是你要自己知道自己在干什么，你如果自己没了主见，你要听华尔街的，你就乱了。"," （2013-09-03）",[827,1324,1325],{},"网友：请问段总：“增收不增利”是成长型公司的普遍特点吗？",[827,1327,1328,1330],{},[833,1329,835],{}," 不是！（2018-03-21）",[827,1332,1333],{},"网友：总市值：263亿，净资产：160亿，净利润：12亿",[827,1335,1336],{},"按照购买一个公司来看溢价103亿，而每年可以赚到12个亿（不考虑每年增长和资产的增值），不用十年就可以收回成本。这只是商业地产股，段总这对你有吸引力吗？",[827,1338,1339,1341],{},[833,1340,835],{}," 如果你能保证里面没假账，净资产不贬值，利润不下降还不会用途不当，这个价格倒也不贵。呵呵，了解一家公司不容易的地方就是在这些地方。当然，有时了解也许没那么复杂。我记得当年我们买万科时就有人问过我，说万一万科假账怎么办。我说，以我认识的王石而言，他绝不是会关在房间里和财务商量个假账来蒙股东的人。其实那时和王石不熟，现在也不算熟，就是直觉而已。（2010-03-14）",[822,1343,1345],{"id":1344},"第三节-净资产与负债","第三节 净资产与负债",[827,1347,1348,1349,1351],{},"网友：请问段总平时说的净资产是指公司看得到的所有值钱的东西之和吗？例如：设备，厂房，办公大楼，现金，存货，原材料，等所有马上能换成现金的总和—",[844,1350,64],{"href":846},"，是这意思吗？",[827,1353,1354,1356],{},[833,1355,835],{}," 是的。（2010-04-15）",[827,1358,1359,1360,1362],{},"网友：段总您的",[844,1361,79],{"href":850},"是大致怎样计算的，请不吝赐教。",[827,1364,1365,1367,1368],{},[833,1366,835],{}," 大致就是账面现金（+短期可变现的如股票）-",[844,1369,64],{"href":846},[827,1371,1372,1373,1375],{},"网友：在A股的财务报表中只有货币资金、经营活动现金净流量、现金净流量等这些，请教段总，您指的",[844,1374,79],{"href":850},"指的就是货币资金吗？",[827,1377,1378,1380],{},[833,1379,835],{}," 应该也包括短期可以变现的一些东西，比如债券。（2010-02-13）",[827,1382,1383,1398],{},[833,1384,1385,1386,1388,1391,1392,1394,1395,1397],{},"段永平：计算价值只和未来总的",[844,1387,88],{"href":853},[844,1389,97],{"href":1390},"\u002Fzhexian","有关。其实净资产只是产生未来",[844,1393,88],{"href":853},"的因素之一，所以我编了个“有效净资产”的名词。也就是说，不能产生",[844,1396,88],{"href":853},"的净资产其实没有价值（有时还可能是负价值）。"," （2010-05-08）",[827,1400,1401],{},"网友：这有点吃不透了，请段总点拨一下：财务报表中的净资产一般指股东对这个企业的投入成本，也称为这个企业的账面价值，企业在运作过程中，有可能一些资产沉淀下来，起不到赢利的作用了，这部分资产是否可以理解为无效资产？如果可以这样理解，那么，企业一般都会或多或少存在一些无效资产，剔除这些无效资产，剩余的就是有效资产，这样理解对吗？",[827,1403,1404,1407,1408,1411],{},[833,1405,1406],{},"段永平：财务上好像没有“有效净资产”这个名词。有效净资产可能是我编出来的吧"," ，以前没见过。",[833,1409,1410],{},"编这个名词的目的就是不想让自己被“净资产”的表面数字所迷惑。“有效净资产”指的其实就是公司的真实盈利能力"," 。有效净资产只是一个概念，并不是定义为净资产减无效资产的那个东西。（2010-08-20）",[827,1413,1414],{},"网友：经营稳健的公司跌破净资产了相当于贱卖资产，这么说吧，你自己新办一个公司需要100元，但是现在有同样的公司只要90元就卖给你了。这样的话你还要自己办公司吗？关键是这些资产在以后还会盈利的。不盈利的资产再便宜也要慎重，这是巴老说的。",[827,1416,1417,1420],{},[833,1418,1419],{},"段永平：不赚钱的净资产有时候就是个累赘。比如在渺无人烟的地方建个酒店，花了一个亿，现在每年亏500w。重置成本还是一个亿，现在5000w想卖，这里谁要？"," （2010-04-25）",[827,1422,1423],{},"网友：唉，郁闷啊，给您现身说法一个净资产不值钱的例子：我搬家，新家有床，搬之前在IKEA新买的床放在论坛上打五折都卖不出去。最后我直接贴出送床的布告，一位仁兄打电话来咨询了一下，最后嫌太远不肯要……",[827,1425,1426,1428],{},[833,1427,835],{}," 哈哈（2010-04-30）",[827,1430,1431,1433,1434,1436,1437,1439],{},[833,1432,835],{}," 公司价值实际上只和其未来（净）",[844,1435,88],{"href":853},"折现有关，净资产只是产生",[844,1438,88],{"href":853},"的工具而已。（2012-01-27）",[827,1441,1442],{},"网友：轻资产的公司是不是给高点溢价？特别是像贵州茅台这样，无形资产是很值钱的。",[827,1444,1445,1451],{},[833,1446,1447,1448,1450],{},"段永平：无形资产也是可以",[844,1449,97],{"href":1390},"的，所以我不建议单独考虑无形资产，因为公司的获利能力里已经包含了。"," （2010-03-23）",[827,1453,1454],{},"网友：在评估一家公司的有效净资产时，大量的无形资产该如何评估？",[827,1456,1457,1459,1460,1462],{},[833,1458,835],{}," 只有一个标准，未来",[844,1461,88],{"href":853},"，看不懂的就不要碰。（2012-02-28）",[827,1464,1465],{},"网友：我目前总搞不懂为什么报表会不把全部的资产计算在内，段总说还有部分没有在报表内反映的“净资产”也很值钱，这意思应该不是说利润或分红的问题，而是“有部分”根本没算，我就困惑，为什么会有这情况，那以后我们怎么分辨这种情况。",[827,1467,1468,1470],{},[833,1469,835],{}," 有时候会有，比如当年我买Uhal时就是这种情况。Uhal拥有的地产很值钱，但报表没法反映出来。巴菲特买的BNI我觉得也有这种资产，但比例好像没那么高。（2010-05-11）",[827,1472,1473],{},"网友J：趁机问多些，因为我确实有困惑，请问段总好像说过净资产是产生利润的条件之一，不必重复计算在公司价值之内，而yahoo又挺重视净资产的，我就是不明白什么时候要把净资产计算在价值内，什么时候不计算在价值内，我这个笨学生老问重复的问题给您添麻烦了，谢谢！",[827,1475,1476,1478],{},[833,1477,835],{}," 呵呵，你提的问题是个非常好的问题。",[827,1480,1481],{},"我说的yahoo的这些资产的盈利（能力）并没有反映在报表里，所以要计算。",[827,1483,1484],{},"yahoo现在的盈利是没有包括yahoo日本，香港阿里巴巴和阿里巴巴集团现在的利润（和将来的成长）的。总而言之，尽量不要重复计算。（2010-05-11）",[827,1486,1487],{},"网友：段大哥你说过：“可以确认的净资产当然有价值！尤其是评估其向下空间时很有用。yahoo其实就是个例子。”",[827,1489,1490],{},"我的问题是，可以确认的净资产是否就是股价的向下空间的一条底线，一旦低于这个底线，就应该大量买入？这种情况A股中好像只有2008年底（金融危机最恐慌）的时候出现过，在美股中，这种情况很多吗，一般不太可能出现吧？",[827,1492,1493,1495],{},[833,1494,835],{}," 我的回答还是不一定。比如100块的东西，如果98块卖给你，也不一定合算，除非你马上倒手一下。（2010-04-27）",[827,1497,1498,1499,1501],{},"网友：购买市值低于净资产，甚至是",[844,1500,79],{"href":850},"的公司，特别要注意哪些问题？",[827,1503,1504,1506,1507,1509,1511],{},[833,1505,835],{}," 我觉得你需要对公司特别了解才行。这种情况特别容易陷于所谓的“价值陷阱”，就是看着便宜但永远也不涨的那种。如果从未来",[844,1508,88],{"href":853},[844,1510,97],{"href":1390},"的角度看则会容易理解些。(2010-10-21)",[827,1513,1514,1517],{},[833,1515,1516],{},"段永平：市值低于现金的公司千万要小心（和投资别的公司一样小心就好）！一眼看上去市值低于现金的公司确实经常是值得花时间去看的，但多数情况下这未必就是便宜货。"," （2018-01-12）",[827,1519,1520,1523],{},[833,1521,1522],{},"芒格："," 我们买过一个纺织厂（伯克希尔·哈撒韦）和一个加州的存贷行（Wesco），这俩后来都带来了灾难。但是我们买的时候，价格都比清算价值打折还低。（《芒格主义》，2012-06-26）",[827,1525,1526,1528,1529,1531],{},[833,1527,835],{}," 这个大概就是人们常说的价值陷阱，如果理解未来",[844,1530,88],{"href":853},"折现的概念就容易理解芒格说的是啥了。所以未必市值低过净资产甚至现金的股票就值得投资，除非你能看懂你买的是什么。（2012-06-26）",[827,1533,1534],{},"网友：关于第六条价值陷阱，我以前也不是很理解，心想股价如果低于每股现金的话总是安全的吧。昨天我忽然觉得这和废车回收有点儿像。一般的废车都有一吨多钢材，一吨废钢的价格是三、四千元，但是废车回收的价格往往都低很多（即使废车里除了废钢还有很多可以回收的零部件，有些甚至可以转卖到好几千元），因为把废车里的值钱部分变成钱这件事情本身也是花钱花工夫的。",[827,1536,1537],{},"在现实世界里，想把每股股票里的现金榨出来，很有可能需要花费很大的工夫和本事，没准儿还得花很多钱。这样想就能理解价值陷阱的存在了。",[827,1539,1540,1546],{},[833,1541,1542,1543,1545],{},"段永平：如果真的明白了“未来",[844,1544,88],{"href":853},"折现”的思维方式，你对“价值陷阱”就自然明白了"," 。（2012-06-29）",[827,1548,1549],{},"网友：您认为看资产负债表有用吗？准备学习看资产负债表。",[827,1551,1552,1554],{},[833,1553,835],{}," 不知道看有没有用，但不看有危险。（2010-05-12）",[827,1556,1557,1558,1561],{},"网友：如果说某上市公司的市值只有总资产的50%时，问这家上市公司有",[844,1559,58],{"href":1560},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","的理由吗？",[827,1563,1564,1566],{},[833,1565,835],{}," 看看通用汽车就明白了。总资产是包括债务的，通用汽车公司破产前的市值好像只有总资产的几十分之一，后来就不说了，市值是0；AIG也是类似的情况，总资产巨高，市值极低。（2010-04-18）",[827,1568,1569],{},"网友：段总当初买创维我记得是说一年销售额也比市值大很多了，凭这点判断低估了，是不是还有别的因素呢？我看TCL今天的市值是114.66亿，他去年销售额442亿，股东权利52.9亿，去年营业利润大概65亿，现在如果从价值判断是不是低估了呢？低估了多少呢？巴菲特“烟蒂”要低估50%，我还是理解不了怎么判断。",[827,1571,1572,1574],{},[833,1573,835],{}," 我没说过。通用汽车破产前的销售额还是非常大。（2010-06-18）",[827,1576,1577],{},"网友：如果一个企业手上的现金很少，是不是很危险和很被动？",[827,1579,1580,1583],{},[833,1581,1582],{},"段永平：是的，因为人总会犯错。不要让一个错误就把你打倒。"," （2010-04-03）",[827,1585,1586,1587,1589,1590,1592,1593,1595,1596,1598],{},"网友：”",[844,1588,64],{"href":846},"”有很多含义，您指的是长期",[844,1591,64],{"href":846},"、短期",[844,1594,64],{"href":846},"、还是指的别的什么",[844,1597,64],{"href":846},"项？",[827,1600,1601,1603],{},[833,1602,835],{}," 都是。（2010-04-26）",[827,1605,1606,1607,1609,1610,1612],{},"网友：Debt（债务）与Liability（",[844,1608,64],{"href":846},"）虽然都有一个”债”字，但在财务上却有不同的意义。Debt（债务）指一般需要支付利息的外部融资，而Liability（",[844,1611,64],{"href":846},"）则包括正常的商业往来中的应付账款以及应付工资等，一般不需支付利息。",[827,1614,1615,1617],{},[833,1616,835],{}," 我的理解Debt一般指显性的债务，一般是可以数字化的。Liability应该包括Debt，同时还包括隐性的责任，比如法律责任等。有兴趣的可以去查字典。（2012-01-13）",[827,1619,1620,1621,1623,1624,1626],{},"网友：段总，为什么有些企业都挺不错，还喜欢",[844,1622,64],{"href":846},"啊？我个人感觉做企业尽量不要",[844,1625,64],{"href":846},"。",[827,1628,1629,1640],{},[833,1630,1631,1632,1626,1634,1636,1637,1639],{},"段永平：我们也不",[844,1633,64],{"href":846},[844,1635,64],{"href":846},"的好处是可以发展快些。不",[844,1638,64],{"href":846},"的好处是可以活得长些。再说，一般来讲，银行都是要确认你不需要钱时才借钱给你的。"," （2010-04-21）",[827,1642,1643,1644,1646,1647,1649],{},"网友：我个人偏爱低",[844,1645,64],{"href":846},"、零",[844,1648,64],{"href":846},"的公司。还要看看资本开支，有不少公司是资本黑洞，利润只是纸上富贵。有些公司多年以来的全部利润再投入都不够，还要增发或举债，我会避开此类公司，哪怕利润表很漂亮。",[827,1651,1652,1654],{},[833,1653,835],{}," 我也尽量避开。(2010-04-04)",[827,1656,1657],{},"网友：先来抛个砖：万科109亿股本，市值870亿，2009年报存货900亿，且账上有230亿的货币资金，超强的管理层，超强的企业文化，各位有什么看法，说来听听？",[827,1659,1660,1662,1663,1665],{},[833,1661,835],{}," 之前经营和",[844,1664,64],{"href":846},"情况如何？（2010-04-23）",[827,1667,1668,1669,1671,1672,1674],{},"网友：经营状况很稳健，不冒进，踩着节奏前进。",[844,1670,64],{"href":846},"在合理水平，感觉A股很少公司不",[844,1673,64],{"href":846},"的，不知道美国怎么样？",[827,1676,1677,1679,1680,1686],{},[833,1678,835],{}," 没统计过。",[833,1681,1682,1683,1685],{},"反正一般",[844,1684,64],{"href":846},"多的公司我也不买"," ，GE例外了一次。（2010-04-24）",[827,1688,1689,1690,1692,1693,1695,1696,1698,1699,1701,1702,1704,1705,1707],{},"网友B：不只是万科有",[844,1691,64],{"href":846},"，每个公司都有",[844,1694,64],{"href":846},"呀，只要是",[844,1697,64],{"href":846},"不是很离谱就行了。一般来说",[844,1700,64],{"href":846},"不能超过公司资产的50%，但有些公司",[844,1703,64],{"href":846},"超过资产60%却是非常安全的。那你就要看它的",[844,1706,64],{"href":846},"结构了。",[827,1709,1710],{},"所以说我们首先是一定要看懂它的公司，然而才看它的财报，如果你不了解这个公司是经营情况，专看财报是看不懂的。",[827,1712,1713],{},[833,1714,1715,1716,1718,1719,1721,1722,1724,1725,1727],{},"段永平：每个公司都有",[844,1717,64],{"href":846},"吗？每个”公司”都应该",[844,1720,64],{"href":846},"吗？每个房地产公司都应该",[844,1723,64],{"href":846},"吗？我记得美国有一家房地产公司，叫”NVR”，曾经因为太多",[844,1726,64],{"href":846},"而差一点破产，股票掉到过0.2\u002F股，后来侥幸活过来以后就再也不借钱了，几十年以后的现在的股价大概在$700\u002F股上下。",[827,1729,1730,1736],{},[833,1731,1732,1733,1735],{},"你再看看美国现在其他的房地产行业的公司。如果万科没",[844,1734,64],{"href":846},"，我会给他们加很多分，但他们不懂，他们想快点发展嘛。"," （2011-09-26）",[827,1738,1739],{},"网友：大道当年提到的NVR，与目前万科相比，活得很好。经典案例啊。今天的万科让人感到有点惋惜啊。",[827,1741,1742],{},"大道：我查了一下，目前的NVR依然是没有净负债的（现金比有息债务多）。（2026-09-02）",[827,1744,1745,1746,1748],{},"网友S：现金超过",[844,1747,64],{"href":846},"是不是有点怪啊。自己有钱放着不花，借别人的钱给别人利息。难道借别人的钱花着舒服？",[827,1750,1751,1753],{},[833,1752,835],{}," 很多很大的公司（比如跨国公司）由于周转等各种原因，有时候会有短期贷款的需求。（2011-09-26）",[827,1755,1756,1757,1759,1760,1762],{},"网友：我也在8块多买了万科，我最担心的是",[844,1758,64],{"href":846},"，2012年长期＋短期的",[844,1761,64],{"href":846},"就达到了460亿，我也不知道他说的那个净负债率23.5%是怎么算出来的？",[827,1764,1765,1767,1768,1770,1771,1773],{},[833,1766,835],{}," 你要算他们的有息",[844,1769,64],{"href":846},"。预收款也是",[844,1772,64],{"href":846},"，但意义差很多。（2013-03-05）",[827,1775,1776,1777,1779,1780,1782],{},"网友：”大多数优秀公司的",[844,1778,64],{"href":846},"水平相对于其利息支付能力来说极低，真正好的企业常常并不需要",[844,1781,64],{"href":846},"”",[827,1784,1785,1786,1788,1789,1791,1792,1794,1795,1797,1798,1800,1801,1803],{},"请问这里所说的好企业的",[844,1787,64],{"href":846},"是指所有",[844,1790,64],{"href":846},"还是单指有息",[844,1793,64],{"href":846},"呢？比如万科、格力公司的负债率非常高，但其",[844,1796,64],{"href":846},"主要是无息",[844,1799,64],{"href":846},"（应付款、预收款），如何看待这些无息",[844,1802,64],{"href":846},"占总资产非常高比例的公司的风险？",[827,1805,1806,1808,1809,1811],{},[833,1807,835],{}," 无息",[844,1810,64],{"href":846},"多数情况为预收或应付类的东西，一般没啥短期风险吧？（2013-07-01）",[827,1813,1814,1815,1817,1818,1820,1821,1823],{},"网友B：请问段大哥：是不是关注有息金融",[844,1816,64],{"href":846},"就行了，其他",[844,1819,64],{"href":846},"就不用管了。我看到万科的有息",[844,1822,64],{"href":846},"只有二百多亿，而它却有四百多亿现金，我以为很安全。请段大哥点评一下。",[827,1825,1826,1828,1829,1831,1832,1841,1842],{},[833,1827,835],{}," 还没认真看过财报。如果现金超过",[844,1830,64],{"href":846},"，那就应该很安全。",[833,1833,1834,1835,1837,1838,1840],{},"我对大多数公司的担心是很多公司为了发展快些而去",[844,1836,64],{"href":846},"，结果某一天因为",[844,1839,64],{"href":846},"而陷入麻烦。万科相对而言还是比较健康的，但似乎对营业额的增长也很有追求"," 。",[833,1843,1844],{},"我一般喜欢那些追求好产品，不太提营业额目标的公司，比如苹果。",[827,1846,1847,1848,1850],{},"网友J：现金400多亿，搞不懂你的有息",[844,1849,64],{"href":846},"200多个亿怎么来的，这一切都不懂，看来还是不要碰了。",[827,1852,1853,1855,1856,1858],{},[833,1854,835],{}," 有息",[844,1857,64],{"href":846},"大概就是银行借贷或债券类的东西，到期要还的。我说的少借债指的就是这类债。会计上的债务还包括预收类的款项，这类债务一般不会给企业带来风险。",[827,1860,1861],{},"网友：怎么看那些应收账款比较高的公司？而且公司的成长性不错，管理层，企业文化不错的公司！",[827,1863,1864,1866],{},[833,1865,835],{}," 需要对公司特别了解。（2018-05-01）",[827,1868,1869,1870,1646,1872,1874],{},"网友：当然还要看看段老师提到的负债率，我个人偏爱低",[844,1871,64],{"href":846},[844,1873,64],{"href":846},"的公司。还要看看资本开支，有不少公司是资本黑洞，利润只是纸上富贵。有些公司多年以来全部利润再投入都不够，还要增发或举债，我会避开此类公司，哪怕利润表很漂亮：）",[827,1876,1877,1879,1880,1882,1883,1885],{},[833,1878,963],{}," ：我也尽量避开。GE对我来讲是个例外，但GE的",[844,1881,64],{"href":846},"有点像银行的",[844,1884,64],{"href":846},"。（2010-04-04）",[827,1887,1888,1890,1891,1893],{},[833,1889,963],{}," ：反正一般",[844,1892,64],{"href":846},"多的公司我也不买，ge例外了一次。（2010-04-23）",[827,1895,1896],{},"【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[827,1898,1899,1908],{},[833,1900,1901,1902,1904,1905,1907],{},"任何一家公司的获利能力取决于（1）资产报酬率（2）",[844,1903,64],{"href":846},"的成本（3）财务杠杆的运用（也就是其运用",[844,1906,64],{"href":846},"而非股东权益来支应资产取得的程度）"," 。（1995）",[822,1910,1912],{"id":1911},"第四节-roe与经营效率","第四节 ROE与经营效率",[827,1914,1915],{},"网友：你曾买过创维，但创维是一个ROE低于10%的股票，一般好企业要大于15%，我想问的是，你投资的企业你看它的ROE指标吗？",[827,1917,1918,1920],{},[833,1919,835],{}," 没看过roe。我就觉得只要彩电市场还有的话，创维就死不了。（2010-04-21）",[827,1922,1923],{},"网友S：都没提公司经营产品、经营管理者、企业文化，光数字。",[827,1925,1926,1928],{},[833,1927,835],{}," 这个提得好。（2010-04-24）",[827,1930,1931],{},"网友：近期总看到文章或经济学专家，说巴老非常喜欢ROE这个指标，您对此有了解吗？在我的印象中，我只在巴老的致股东信中看到过有形资产回报率这个词，并且做了比较生动的解释，并没有哪次他提及过ROE，而且巴老也一再强调不会通过指标选股。",[827,1933,1934,1936],{},[833,1935,835],{}," 我也喜欢ROE这个指标。一般来说，ROE高的公司商业模式好。",[827,1938,1939,1942],{},[833,1940,1941],{},"其实我想说的是ROA，因为ROE好像没包括债务？"," （2019-06-01）",[827,1944,1945],{},"网友：ROE不是一个筛选指标，和内在价值一样，ROE是一个思维方式。",[827,1947,1948,1950],{},[833,1949,835],{}," Roe或Roa在了解一个公司的生意模式时是有帮助的，但不是充分条件。（2019-06-02）",[827,1952,1953],{},"网友：巴菲特老是在提净资产收益率。我想问一下段大哥，净资产收益率高是不是买入公司的一大因素吗？（排除它使用贷款作扛杆）。或者说净资产收益低的公司能不能买。",[827,1955,1956,1962],{},[833,1957,1958,1959,1961],{},"段永平：在没有贷款的前提下，净资产收益率高的公司当然是不错的，说明公司的盈利能力强。净资产收益率低的公司一般都不太好，但成长型公司的初期可能净资产收益率会很低。关键还是看你能不能看懂公司的未来（",[844,1960,88],{"href":853},"）"," 。（2011-02-13）",[827,1964,1965,1967],{},[833,1966,1074],{}," 我们判断一家公司经营的好坏，取决于其净资产收益率（排除不当的财务杠杆或会计做账），而非每股收益的成长与否，因为即使把钱固定存在银行不动，也能达到像后者一样的目的。（1979年致股东信）",[827,1969,1970,1973],{},[833,1971,1972],{},"段永平：净资产收益率（Return on Equity，ROE）是个很好的指标，可以用来排除那些你不喜欢的公司，但不能作为“核心指标”去决定你是否要投这家公司。这个指标如果好的话，你首先要看的是债务；如果没有债务问题则马上要看文化，看这种获利是否可以持续。最后还是要回到对的生意，对的人，对的价格。"," （2015-02-12）",[827,1975,1976],{},"网友：段大哥：怎么理解巴菲特衡量一家公司的核心指标净资产收益率。最近忽然对这个熟悉的问题有点困惑。您看这个指标吗？",[827,1978,1979,1981],{},[833,1980,835],{}," 你确定你是突然困惑的吗？一般来说，拿着“核心指标”说事的人应该是一直困惑着的。你知道GM破产前的“净资产收益率”是多少吗？",[827,1983,1984],{},"网友：举个例：",[827,1986,1987],{},"A公司净利润1元，净资产15元，ROE是6.66%，价格是12元；",[827,1989,1990],{},"B公司净利润1元，净资产7元，ROE是14.2%，价格12元。",[827,1992,1993],{},"都是同一行业，B比A的经营质量好，你会选择哪个？",[827,1995,1996,1998,1999,2001],{},[833,1997,835],{}," roe的e是总资产还是净资产？我很少看这个指标，不太有概念。如果roe是return on净资产，或叫净资产收益率，没有",[844,2000,64],{"href":846},"情况怎么搞？再说，往往非数字的东西往往比眼前数字的东西重要，无法根据你给的东西判断。",[827,2003,2004],{},"网友m：毛利率是不是比roe更直接反映商业模式的好坏？",[827,2006,2007,2009],{},[833,2008,835],{}," 显然不是，大把亏大钱的公司都可以有高毛利率，但没营业额。（2019-05-31）",[827,2011,2012,2014],{},[833,2013,1522],{}," 长期而言，一个公司股票的盈利很难比这个公司的盈利多。如果公司每年赚6%持续40年，你最后的年化回报也就是6%左右，即使你买的时候股票有很大的折扣。但反过来如果公司每年资产收益率达18%并且持续二三十年，即使你买的时候看起来很贵，他还是会给你带来惊喜。",[822,2016,2018],{"id":2017},"第五节-财务指标的边界","第五节 财务指标的边界",[827,2020,2021,2022,2025],{},"网友：我现在有个感悟：好的投资、好的公司都不是可以量化的，不是从财务报表上看出来的。真正起到决定性的是公司使命感、",[844,2023,135],{"href":2024},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","、组织架构、战斗效率等等非量化指标。所以我有个大胆的看法：好的投资其实可以不看股价和财报，一个公司如果具有健康、拼搏、长寿、理性的基因，以当前的股价买入，不管PE多少，长远看来都不会是糟糕的投资。",[827,2027,2028],{},"这里我们可以“偷懒”不看财务数据的原因是争议颇多的“市场有效理论”，那些“摸得着”、算得出的变量，市场上的聪明人、机构们已经帮你算过了。没有分析师敢在研报里说一家好公司因为它们强大的文化所以PE可以比同行业的普通公司高10倍，但事实上好公司的价值常常比普通公司高千百倍。",[827,2030,2031,2033,2034,2037],{},[833,2032,963],{}," ：",[833,2035,2036],{},"“市场有效”指的是“市场”早晚会有效的，这里的市场其实指的不是市场而是企业本身！"," 比如，假如市场就是不喜欢网易，网易的股价一直在几千万市值，然后一年可以赚20亿美金，然后股价涨了，你觉得这和“市场”有多大关系？（2016-12-16）",[827,2039,2040],{},"网友X：感觉我之前的表述还是有点问题，我写“市场有效理论”打了双引号，其实意思是说市场在当下往往无法给一家优秀企业足够估值。",[827,2042,2043],{},"换句话说，真正足够优秀的公司，不太会有机会“买贵了”。巴菲特突破了格雷厄姆的一个观念，认为用合理的价格买优秀的公司也是对的，不必等优秀公司出现意外、闪出一个便宜价格。我的想法是：如果一家公司真正足够优秀，不管现在以什么价格买，都会是最合适的价格，哪怕看起来有点贵。",[827,2045,2046],{},"以网易为例，这是一家好公司，是因为公司的理念、价值观、和做产品的能力，它不是只有在即将除牌的时候才是一个好的投资机会。当网易后来涨起来了，其实还是一个很值得投资的公司。只要盯住那些真正重要的东西（而不是单纯看财务报表），知道那些没有变，它就会持续地带来惊喜。",[827,2048,2049,2051],{},[833,2050,963],{}," ：是的，对一个一年能赚20亿美金的公司，你花2000万买下和花20亿买下都是合算的，前提是怎么才能知道他未来能赚到20亿。（2016-12-21）",[827,2053,2054,2055,2057],{},"网友：记得您曾经说过，您评价一个企业的好坏的主要标准就是考察其健康度。能否指点一下如何去考察企业的健康度？如利润是否持续增长，经营性",[844,2056,88],{"href":853},"，应收账款比例和账龄，回款DSO，存货周转率，资产负债率，流动比率等等好多指标，什么指标是考察重点，应该包含在健康度考察范围内？",[827,2059,2060,2062],{},[833,2061,835],{}," 我一般更关注企业的不健康的东西。比如你说的这些东西里，有没有致命的问题等等。（2011-01-20）",[827,2064,2065,2066,2068],{},"网友：大道您好，再次感谢您的分享。请问一下，香港现在有一些类似烟蒂资产，譬如国电科环，营收一百多亿，经营",[844,2067,88],{"href":853},"为正五亿以上，利润这几年算正负零，接近有80亿的净资产，但市值才十个亿。类似这种公司您怎么看？您还会买这类公司吗？记得您买过uhal，这算是同样概念的机会吗？",[827,2070,2071,2073],{},[833,2072,835],{}," 我现在不再买这种生意了。（2020-10-23）",[827,2075,2076,2077,2081],{},"网友：大道，有球友问你是否还会买UHAL这种公司，你回答说：“我现在不会再买这种生意”。我估计，可能是因为你现在资金量大了，以及投资方向转变为买好",[844,2078,2080],{"href":2079},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","生意模式","、伟大公司。",[827,2083,2084],{},"我的问题是：你买UHAL是赚了大钱的，记得是几十倍收益，这种模式不合适“现在的你”，是因为你现在钱多了，还是因为你现在认知升级了，回头看发现这种投资模式有重大缺陷所以当初就不该买？",[827,2086,2087,2096],{},[833,2088,2089,2090,2092,2093,2095],{},"段永平：我的过滤器里有",[844,2091,70],{"href":2079},"和",[844,2094,135],{"href":2024},"两项，过不去的我就大概看不到了。Uhal某种角度属于烟蒂"," 。（2020-10-25）",[827,2098,2099],{},[833,2100,2101],{},"案例点评（UHAL）",[827,2103,2104,2105,2107],{},"背景：UHAL是美国一家主做拖车租赁的公司，分店遍布全美各地乃至加拿大，占据相当市场份额。2000年前后，为了进一步扩大公司规模，该公司不惜代价举债多元化，成立保险子公司，进行高风险投资。结果，保险子公司给UHAL带来的是每年1亿多美元的损失。此外它还因扩张过度而",[844,2106,64],{"href":846},"急升，陷入财务危机。2003年6月，UHAL进入破产保护。",[827,2109,2110],{},"巨大的风险使该公司股价从几十美元一度跌倒4美元以下，许多人唯恐避之不及。",[827,2112,2113,2114,2116],{},"通过一系列调研，段永平发现UHAL公司的核心业务运营良好，竞争优势突出，销售收入稳定，",[844,2115,88],{"href":853},"也很充沛。只要该公司能断臂求生，退出高风险的投资领域，同时出售部分商业地产，它的财务数字马上就能得到改善。",[827,2118,2119],{},"网友：有机会您给讲讲当初Uhal怎么发现的，是安龙出事后，您自己找人核算了一遍Uhal的资产么？我想了解一下您的算法。",[827,2121,2122,2124],{},[833,2123,835],{}," 我的算法很简单，就是朋友告诉我uhal有50块以上的净资产，我不太相信，因为当时股价在5块左右，然后找不同的人查了一下，自己也看了看，确实是有50左右，就买了。这种机会就是巴菲特讲的天上掉馅饼的事吧？最关键的是这时候你的水桶要够大，不然也接不到啥。（2010-03-09）",[827,2126,2127],{},"网友：您有投资过有隐性资产没有在账面体现的上市公司吗？",[827,2129,2130,2132],{},[833,2131,835],{}," 有，yahoo就是，当年Uhal也是。（2010-03-26）",[827,2134,2135],{},"网友：你前面的博文提到当初对UHAL估值时发现了其隐藏的价值，是不是指没在年报的报表里披露的价值？请问你怎么发现的，一般应该往哪儿看才能找到这样的好事呢？",[827,2137,2138,2140],{},[833,2139,835],{}," 我是朋友告诉我的。我告诉过很多朋友，好像没人把这个当好事。（2010-04-25）",[827,2142,2143],{},"网友：为什么这么便宜？",[827,2145,2146,2148],{},[833,2147,835],{}," 他们当时就是现金出问题了。(2010-04-17)",[827,2150,2151],{},"网友：关于投资UHAL，您从朋友口中知道这么一家公司到最终投资整整花了半年时间，我想问学长，您在这半年中，除了请会计师、律师调查资产状况、破产保护状况，以及亲自体验UHAL的服务之外，还做了什么，整个投资决定的做出真的需要这么长时间吗？还是有别的什么原因？能详细谈一下吗？",[827,2153,2154,2156],{},[833,2155,835],{}," 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