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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":524,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":51,"date":9,"description":526,"editor":3084,"extension":3085,"meta":3086,"navigation":3087,"order":527,"path":3088,"publishedAt":9,"seo":3089,"seoDescription":526,"seoTitle":3090,"slug":525,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":881,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":3091,"sourceStatus":3092,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":3093,"stem":3094,"summary":526,"tags":3095,"type":435,"updatedAt":3099,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"__hash__":3100,"_collection":3101},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-11.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":3076},"minimark",[821,826,834,837,842,847,850,860,874,877,883,888,891,894,906,913,916,922,931,937,953,962,986,991,994,999,1012,1018,1024,1027,1030,1033,1036,1039,1042,1045,1048,1051,1054,1057,1060,1066,1080,1087,1093,1100,1109,1116,1121,1129,1134,1145,1148,1153,1160,1175,1185,1193,1196,1204,1207,1218,1221,1224,1227,1232,1235,1243,1248,1251,1254,1259,1262,1270,1276,1284,1291,1294,1297,1300,1309,1312,1315,1318,1321,1324,1327,1330,1333,1336,1339,1342,1345,1348,1351,1354,1357,1360,1363,1368,1371,1379,1382,1391,1400,1403,1409,1412,1415,1421,1429,1435,1443,1455,1460,1463,1468,1471,1481,1484,1499,1512,1518,1523,1526,1544,1547,1550,1555,1558,1564,1569,1578,1587,1592,1598,1601,1604,1609,1614,1617,1622,1628,1631,1637,1642,1647,1650,1653,1659,1665,1668,1673,1676,1681,1684,1687,1692,1695,1700,1703,1706,1711,1714,1719,1722,1725,1728,1731,1736,1739,1742,1747,1753,1758,1761,1766,1769,1774,1777,1782,1785,1790,1793,1798,1801,1806,1809,1814,1817,1822,1827,1830,1833,1838,1841,1846,1849,1854,1857,1860,1865,1868,1871,1874,1879,1882,1887,1890,1895,1900,1905,1908,1911,1916,1919,1924,1929,1932,1937,1940,1945,1948,1953,1956,1961,1964,1969,1972,1977,1980,1985,1988,1993,1999,2002,2007,2010,2013,2018,2021,2026,2029,2034,2037,2042,2045,2048,2053,2056,2061,2068,2073,2076,2079,2084,2087,2092,2095,2100,2103,2112,2115,2122,2125,2130,2133,2138,2142,2147,2153,2156,2161,2167,2173,2178,2183,2188,2193,2198,2203,2212,2215,2220,2223,2228,2233,2239,2242,2253,2263,2268,2271,2276,2282,2287,2290,2297,2300,2305,2308,2313,2319,2322,2325,2331,2336,2343,2352,2355,2358,2361,2364,2367,2372,2375,2380,2383,2386,2389,2394,2399,2404,2407,2412,2415,2418,2423,2428,2431,2434,2439,2442,2445,2448,2451,2456,2459,2466,2469,2472,2475,2478,2483,2486,2491,2494,2497,2504,2509,2512,2519,2522,2525,2528,2531,2537,2542,2550,2553,2556,2559,2562,2565,2570,2574,2577,2582,2585,2590,2593,2598,2607,2610,2615,2618,2621,2624,2627,2630,2635,2638,2641,2644,2649,2653,2656,2661,2664,2667,2670,2673,2681,2693,2702,2708,2711,2717,2720,2723,2726,2729,2732,2737,2740,2743,2746,2749,2752,2755,2758,2761,2764,2767,2770,2775,2784,2790,2793,2796,2801,2805,2808,2811,2814,2817,2823,2826,2829,2832,2835,2838,2841,2844,2847,2850,2853,2856,2859,2862,2865,2868,2871,2874,2879,2884,2890,2893,2901,2907,2916,2924,2932,2935,2938,2941,2944,2947,2952,2959,2964,2983,2986,2989,3007,3010,3013,3016,3019,3022,3027,3032,3035,3038,3041,3044,3047,3050,3053,3056,3059,3061,3064,3067,3070,3073],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-投资与投机","第一节 投资与投机",[827,828,829,833],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"段永平："," 投资没什么规模限制，钱多多做些，钱少少做些，投资的原则是一样的。专门做“投资”是一件挺痛苦的事，因为你必须要有年度目标，然后你就不得不看市场的眼色去投机了。如果你真是刚刚入门的话，还是不要考虑专门投资的好。先拿些不会要命的闲钱去感觉一下，3年5年或10年8年后你自然会有结论的。（2010-02-08）",[827,835,836],{},"网友：一个投资人，除了不想亏大钱外，他对投资的理想收益应该是多少，譬如20-30%，就可以接受，还是一定起码得100%以上？你的通用电气目前也是大致100%吧。",[827,838,839,841],{},[830,840,832],{}," 我对投资没有理想收益的想法。我关注过程是否正确多于关注结果是否马上显现。经营企业时结果的显现一般要快很多（至少对我们这种中小规模的企业而言，）而投资却很难讲。",[827,843,844],{},[830,845,846],{},"我对投资的长期回报基本希望是能略好于长期国债，比如8%。",[827,848,849],{},"到目前为止，我管的钱的回报要比长期国债高不少，可能是运气好，也可能是因为投机者太多而给了我机会。（2010-03-24）",[827,851,852,855,856,859],{},[830,853,854],{},"呵呵，可以放心睡觉的就是价值投资了"," 。",[830,857,858],{},"投资用的是闲钱，不然就是投机了。"," （2010-04-24）",[827,861,862],{},[830,863,864,865,869,870,873],{},"想起前面有篇博文里不知谁说过的，“最糟糕的投资方式”就是嘴上讲的是",[866,867,58],"a",{"href":868},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","，干的却是",[866,871,125],{"href":872},"\u002Ftouji","的事。（2011-01-22）",[827,875,876],{},"网友：这几天日本大地震，今天又恐慌性下跌10%以上，要是您的主要投资在日本，您会有什么应对？",[827,878,879,882],{},[830,880,881],{},"段永平"," ：掉的时候你怎么会想到要卖呢（典型的投机者！）？这种情况下应该多想想有没有机会，比如一直想买的哪个有点贵的股票现在便宜了等等。不过，投资的原则是一样的，不懂不碰。（2011-03-16）",[827,884,885,887],{},[830,886,881],{}," ：晒一年的业绩实际上蛮投机的，虽然我理解作为一个网站或许希望用这个办法来增加人们的参与度。",[827,889,890],{},"投资实际上过程比结果重要，只要过程没问题，结果自然不会坏。但从成事在天的角度看，一年恐怕不够长。如果有个5年或10年的晒业绩倒是可以说得过去。",[827,892,893],{},"顺便说下，这不是说我自己今年业绩不好哈。实际上我今年还行，今天应该收在新高或附近了。（2011-12-31）",[827,895,896,898,899,901,902,905],{},[830,897,832],{}," 其实每个人都有一颗",[866,900,125],{"href":872},"的心，所以才需要信仰。我对信仰的理解就是“",[866,903,23],{"href":904},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","”，或者说知道是“不对的事情”就别做了。人们热爱做“不对的事情”是因为这类事情往往有短期诱惑。（2013-02-01）",[827,907,908,909,912],{},"如果说宗教情怀指的是信仰，信仰指的是要“做对的事情”，“做对的事情”就是明知错的事情就不做的话，我同意这个说法。巴菲特之所以能够如此厉害，最重要的一点就是他能坚持不做他认为不对的事情。要坚持这点其实非常不容易，因为往往“不对的事情”往往是有短期诱惑的。（",[830,910,911],{},"2013-02-02"," ）",[827,914,915],{},"网友：日常家庭开支的现金，还是需要预留一些吧，或者是应急的。",[827,917,918,921],{},[830,919,920],{},"段永平：投资用的是闲钱，不然就是投机了"," 。（2014-07-20）",[827,923,924,925,927,928,930],{},"投资非常像种田，是个结硬寨、打呆仗的过程，所以投资者就像农夫。",[866,926,125],{"href":872},"则像狩猎，是个零和游戏，",[866,929,125],{"href":872},"者之间互为猎物，非常刺激。（2020-11-20）",[827,932,933,934,936],{},"网友：目前我很喜欢",[866,935,125],{"href":872},"而非投资，但不妨碍将来转向投资。",[827,938,939,941,942,948,949,952],{},[830,940,832],{}," ",[830,943,944,945,947],{},"呵呵，",[866,946,125],{"href":872},"是会上瘾的，不好改。这是","芒格",[830,950,951],{},"说的。"," （2010-03-27）",[827,954,955,956,958,959,961],{},"网友：",[866,957,58],{"href":868},"者容易抄底抄在半山腰，花旗银行的股价从60美元跌至1美元的过程中就套牢了一大批试图抄底的",[866,960,58],{"href":868},"者。",[827,963,964,966,967,969,970,972,973,976,977,979,980,982,983,985],{},[830,965,832],{}," 抄底就是",[866,968,125],{"href":872},"，为什么被套牢后就成了",[866,971,58],{"href":868},"了？",[830,974,975],{},"巴菲特","被套花旗银行了吗？为什么没有？不是口里喊几句",[866,978,58],{"href":868},"就会成为",[866,981,58],{"href":868},"者的，真正的",[866,984,58],{"href":868},"者是骨子里相信价值的。（2012-01-28）",[827,987,988,990],{},[830,989,832],{}," 呵呵，我学不了他。他是一个价值投机者，和老巴还是有挺大的差别的。再说，我也不想那么累。（2010-03-30）",[827,992,993],{},"网友：田忌赛马——一个在传统文化里被夸大的小聪明，投资需要的是实打实硬碰硬。",[827,995,996,998],{},[830,997,832],{}," 在绝对的优势面前，那点小聪明是不堪一击的。",[827,1000,1001,1002,1004,1005,1007,1008,1011],{},"如果有谁还不太理解什么叫",[866,1003,58],{"href":868},"，看看",[830,1006,975],{},"1984年写的这篇《",[830,1009,1010],{},"格雷厄姆","-多德村的超级投资者》或许会很有帮助。",[827,1013,1014,1015,1017],{},"这篇文章讲的实际上是个概率事件，工科出身的人可能容易懂。我理解的大意就是，长期来看",[866,1016,58],{"href":868},"者赚到钱其实不是运气！",[827,1019,1020,1021,1023],{},"记得以前翻过一本书叫《富爸爸，穷爸爸》，初学投资的人如果觉得",[830,1022,975],{},"的东西一时不好懂，可以看看这本书。我对投资的基本理解好像和这本书差不多。",[827,1025,1026],{},"假设我有10000元闲钱，也就是一时半会用不着的钱，应该怎么办呢？我可能有以下的一些选择：",[827,1028,1029],{},"1.在床底下挖个洞埋起来——20年后还是10000元；",[827,1031,1032],{},"2.存在银行或买国债，假设平均利息是6%---20年后大概是32000多元；",[827,1034,1035],{},"3.投资在标准普尔500指数，近100年的平均年回报大约是9%20年后是56000元左右。",[827,1037,1038],{},"所以只要能找到任何年回报大于等于9%的投资我就可以考虑投。",[827,1040,1041],{},"问题是，拿利息绝对无风险，而投资则有可能血本无归。",[827,1043,1044],{},"所以风险是决定是否投资的第一考量。",[827,1046,1047],{},"在自己懂的东西上投资，最重要的就是能看到风险在哪。",[827,1049,1050],{},"不同的人由于懂的东西不一样而投资在不同的投资标的上，是很正常的，没有孰优孰劣之分，但短期甚至长期回报有可能会不一样。如果对企业和投资都不了解的人，当S&P500低的时候买指数也是个很好的投资办法。A股的情况我不了解。",[827,1052,1053],{},"其他如房地产投资的道理也一样。房地产价格是否贵可以看看《富爸爸，穷爸爸》，我记得里面说得挺好。",[827,1055,1056],{},"无论如何，我觉得人生最重要的投资是投资在教育上。",[827,1058,1059],{},"父母的教育，小时候的经历和苦难，小学、中学、大学和研究生学到的东西对我经营企业和现在的投资都起到了很大的作用。",[827,1061,1062,1063,1065],{},"投资用的是闲钱，不然就是",[866,1064,125],{"href":872},"了。",[827,1067,1068,1070,1071,1073,1074,1076,1077,1079],{},[866,1069,58],{"href":868},"的风险不该比开车出门大，",[866,1072,125],{"href":872},"的风险不会比去赌场小。最危险的可能是一知半解的那种：比如号称自己是",[866,1075,58],{"href":868},"者，也知道",[866,1078,58],{"href":868},"要拿长线的道理(知其然不知其所以然)，结果买错股票又坚持长线持有。",[827,1081,1082,1083,1086],{},"网友：最近在高速公路服务区买了一袋包装比较老派的威化饼干，挺好吃，说是1956年的老",[866,1084,141],{"href":1085},"\u002Fpinpai","。一查公司发现是港股上市企业(60%股份在控股家族手里，日均交易额几万元)，再看报表，有点不淡定了。公司账上现金4.8亿人民币，年收入15亿，净利润1.4亿，虽然没什么增长，也一直比较稳定。市值是4.7亿人民币。",[827,1088,1089,1090,1092],{},"请教，这合理吗？如果我买点股票等着这个公司退市，算不算",[866,1091,125],{"href":872},"?",[827,1094,1095,941,1097],{},[830,1096,832],{},[830,1098,1099],{},"先假设你看到的数据都是真的(小公司，尤其是家族公司，这点其实非常不容易确认)。你先问你自己几个问题吧：",[827,1101,1102],{},[830,1103,1104,1105,1108],{},"你喜欢他们的",[866,1106,70],{"href":1107},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","吗？",[827,1110,1111],{},[830,1112,1104,1113,1108],{},[866,1114,135],{"href":1115},"\u002Fqiyewenhua",[827,1117,1118],{},[830,1119,1120],{},"如果你有钱，愿意把这家公司按这个市值买下来并继续交给他们经营吗？(不要想着去改变任何东西，那是不一样的事情。)",[827,1122,1123],{},[830,1124,1125,1126,1128],{},"60多年的",[866,1127,141],{"href":1085},"终于走到了今天，你觉得他们再过60年会怎么样？",[827,1130,1131],{},[830,1132,1133],{},"你愿意把你的闲钱都投进去吗？",[827,1135,1136],{},[830,1137,1138,1139,1141,1142,1144],{},"当你需要问是不是",[866,1140,125],{"href":872},"的时候，那就是",[866,1143,125],{"href":872},"，当然也可以叫投资在机会上。",[827,1146,1147],{},"网友：抱歉段总，我也想追问一下，我们想知道的是换股是不是稍微有点不同了？如果直接现金买入的话那肯定是买便宜的，但是AH换股来说好像又有点不一样的感觉啊，20%，50%各种溢价，怎么办？",[827,1149,1150,1152],{},[830,1151,832],{}," 对于投资者而言，AH互换是最容易想明白的事情，只要执行没问题就可以了。凡是为这个事情纠结的都是在投机。（2014-06）",[827,1154,1155,1156,1159],{},"网友：很多人没有大道那么有",[866,1157,197],{"href":1158},"\u002Fnaixin","，都想赚快钱。",[827,1161,1162,1164,1165,1167,1168,1171,1172,1174],{},[830,1163,832],{}," 大道其实也很没",[866,1166,197],{"href":1158},"，也很想赚快钱。",[866,1169,222],{"href":1170},"\u002Flixing","应该是思考的结果，",[866,1173,197],{"href":1158},"感觉像是个性或者叫性格。",[827,1176,1177,1178,1181,1182,1184],{},"一般来讲，聪明人知道如何",[866,1179,28],{"href":1180},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","，但有智慧指的是要",[866,1183,23],{"href":904},"。",[827,1186,1187,1189,1190,1192],{},[866,1188,125],{"href":872},"投的是零和游戏，投资投的是企业带来的利润。所以投资不需要那么聪明就可以了，而",[866,1191,125],{"href":872},"者就算很聪明早晚还是会掉坑里的。",[827,1194,1195],{},"网友：“有一天，你会遇到一个重剑无锋的人，当你遇到这个人后，希望你能够好好向他学习，走一段他的路，学一学他的为人处事方式。”感谢大道，帮助我成为更好的自己。",[827,1197,1198,1200,1201,1203],{},[830,1199,832],{}," 重剑无锋这个比喻我很喜欢，",[830,1202,975],{},"是典型代表，其实就是扎硬寨，打呆仗的意思？",[827,1205,1206],{},"网友：詹姆斯·西蒙斯(JamesSimons)和约翰·保尔森(JohnPaulson )是什么样的人？",[827,1208,1209,1211,1212,1214,1215,1217],{},[830,1210,832],{}," 他们两个都不是",[866,1213,58],{"href":868},"者。约翰·保尔森是个很厉害的价值",[866,1216,125],{"href":872},"者。当然拿别人的钱下注可能要容易些。",[827,1219,1220],{},"詹姆斯·西蒙斯是我的同行。我读研究生的时候也号称是学数量经济的，现在都忘得差不多了。他们的东西像我这样的普通人学不了，能学会的人也不会来我的这个博客。",[827,1222,1223],{},"我也确实见过一些懂看图看线的人，长期也能赚钱，方法就是(写书)教人怎么看图看线。（2010-05-22）",[827,1225,1226],{},"艾美谷：【保尔森旗舰基金今年已亏损46%】对冲基金经理人保尔森今年面临创建基金公司以来最差业绩表现，据透露截止11月，保尔森旗下的旗舰基金已亏损了46%。保尔森对冲基金总共管理着280亿美元资产，今年以来，因投资花旗、美国银行、嘉汉林业等股票损失惨重。",[827,1228,1229,1231],{},[830,1230,832],{}," 赌钱总是有输赢的。当然，如果拿别人的钱赌，赢了有提成，输了还有1－2％的年费，那更是个不错的生意模式哈。（2011-12-06）",[827,1233,1234],{},"网友：请问您如何管理自己的心态？",[827,1236,1237,1239,1240,1242],{},[830,1238,832],{}," 我不管理心态，因为投资是不需要管理心态的，但",[866,1241,125],{"href":872},"需要。",[827,1244,1245,1246,1184],{},"需要胆量的是",[866,1247,125],{"href":872},[827,1249,1250],{},"投资不需要勇气，也就是说当你需要勇气时你就危险了。",[827,1252,1253],{},"网友：你的意思是，持有同一个公司贵30%的A股股份，而不去买他较便宜的H股是投机行为，还是说想把A股换成比较便宜的H股的想法是投机行为？",[827,1255,1256,1258],{},[830,1257,832],{}," 回到原点想吧，如果是家非上市公司你该怎么办。",[827,1260,1261],{},"网友：最近A股涨的很好，然后就有很多AH溢价越来越大了，我纠结的是要不要把手中的A股换到H股里去呢？有些差了20、30%，有些甚至差了一倍，从价值来说我觉得手中A股还是低估的，但是H股更低估，但是现在A股涨的快，是不是应该让子弹再飞一会儿呢，还是坚决坚持价值投资的原理换成更低估的呢？",[827,1263,1264,1266,1267,1269],{},[830,1265,832],{}," 咬牙切齿地坚持",[866,1268,58],{"href":868},"的原理是件很怪的事情。本来找到好公司应该是件愉快的事情哈。",[827,1271,1272,1273,1275],{},"网友：大道老师，现在投资英伟达是投资还是",[866,1274,125],{"href":872},"？",[827,1277,1278,1280,1281,1283],{},[830,1279,832],{}," 问的都是",[866,1282,125],{"href":872},"，投资的人自己就默默地投了。（2025-09-18）",[827,1285,1286,1287,1290],{},"网友：大道您好，我出身农村。记得小时候家里还有",[830,1288,1289],{},"苹果","园，一般果树种植后，前面的2-3年需要忍受没有任何的收获，但后续是每年一结果一收获。投资是这样吗？类似果树，不要想着明天、下月或下年就有收获。找一个好的公司，每年收股息（一年一开花结果）。用农民种地的思想，投资可以战胜市场吗？",[827,1292,1293],{},"大道：心中有市场就很难战胜市场。这句话的意思是：公司其实只有一个买家，投资只需要关注生意本身。（2025-11-26）",[827,1295,1296],{},"网友：大道老师您好，我的男朋友重仓A股（大概占35%的资产），之前亏了大几十万，今天刚刚回本，我应该劝他别再投资A股了吗？",[827,1298,1299],{},"大道：如果有闲钱，不投资最后肯定会输给通胀的，但赌博会输得更快更干净。（2026-01-20）",[827,1301,1302,1303,1305,1306,1308],{},"网友：感谢老师指点迷津！老师，那我下一步应该是判断他是",[866,1304,58],{"href":868},"还是赌博，以及建议他坚持",[866,1307,58],{"href":868},"，对吧？",[827,1310,1311],{},"大道：我觉得你最好啥也别说。（2026-01-21）",[827,1313,1314],{},"网友：哦对了，我买了大道老师的书，还有大道老师推荐的《穷查理宝典》，准备送给他，这个可行吗？",[827,1316,1317],{},"大道：最好不要，但你可以自己看。（2026-01-21）",[827,1319,1320],{},"网友：段总好，怎么看德鲁肯米勒的投资方法？谢谢",[827,1322,1323],{},"大道：我一个喜欢打golf的人，你非要问我对板球的看法，你的脑回路很有意思哈。（2026-02-02）",[827,1325,1326],{},"网友：彼得林奇：“卖掉你的赢家，抱住你的输家，就像拔掉花朵，却去浇灌杂草。”我很喜欢这句，不过我认为林奇顶多是一个价值投机者。",[827,1328,1329],{},"大道：哈，买卖过2000多只股票的人得出的结论是要认真看的，大概率里面有很多教训。（2026-08-18）",[827,1331,1332],{},"大道：美光科技\n买短期option的人大概率是在赌，卖的人很可能只是家保险公司而已，也可以说卖的人只是开了家赌场而已。开赌场最重要的是能够靠规矩控制赔率，卖put靠的是对生意的理解（其实也是概率或赢面）。不要想每一把都赢，但不懂的东西一定不要碰。（2026-08-19）",[827,1334,1335],{},"网友：可能巴菲特是批评美股里面现在“老虎机”越来越多了，末日期权啥的，交易量越来越大？",[827,1337,1338],{},"大道：我其实觉得单日交易的未必全是赌博，至少卖Option的人是有可能不是赌博的。举一个简单的例子：如果你打算卖掉一只股票（部分），很可能一直卖单日covered call是个好办法，但买的人确实是在赌的。卖单日put的也是同理。（2026-07-25）",[827,1340,1341],{},"网友：巴菲特最近在CNBC专访里直言“美股已成赌场”，绝大多数是短期投机而非长期投资；而您近期在卖SpaceX、特斯拉、PLTR的put，保持nvda体量，还想找机会加Google和brkb。您怎么看巴菲特说的“美股已成赌场”？",[827,1343,1344],{},"大道：我不是很理解巴菲特这句话。很多年前，我在ESL课程中就碰上一个老师，我们有个小小的争论。他说股市就是赌场，我说不是，他说是，我说不是的。反复若干次后，我突然意识到他也是对的。当他认为那是个赌场的时候，他就是个赌客！每个股市都是赌场啊！ 我猜巴菲特的意思是，目前赌客比例比较高了？（2026-07-25）",[827,1346,1347],{},"网友：谢谢澄清，那就是其他巨鲸分三天买了8500张Dec 82.5 Call\n一直不太明白买这么深度价内Call有什么意义\n杠杆远低于券商保证金杠杆了，还要支付bid\u002Fask spread\n也要担心中间突然来个派息",[827,1349,1350],{},"大道：买option的都是赌！虽然说我从不买option，但心里还是一直有个梦想的，就是有一天能看到一个机会，买它一堆option（call或者put）。20年了，一直没找到机会下手！前几天还想过要不要买点space X的call呢，结果还是决定卖了一堆put。现在看，要是买了call我就发达啦。😂（2026-08-13）",[827,1352,1353],{},"网友：你觉得他哪一点最让你觉得像投机？",[827,1355,1356],{},"大道：买卖过2000多只股票这点算不算？Peter Lynch 确实有很多金句的，但我很难理解他那么短的时间里交易过那么多股票，而且早早退出了这个生意（说明他很累？）。（2026-08-18）",[827,1358,1359],{},"网友：但斌在其8月2日的博客中说：“我曾研究过十年的技术分析，从上证指数月线图给出的综合信息看，大底近在咫尺，如不是大底，距稍大幅度的反弹时间也不远了。而一年内，市场反转，走大牛市的概率极大！”",[827,1361,1362],{},"——--请教段总，但斌这种头脑中还有技术分析思路的人士，眼睛还盯着市场先生的表现，他算是真正的价值投资者吗？（因但斌可一直标榜已经从技术分析过渡到真正的价值投资者了）",[827,1364,1365,1367],{},[830,1366,881],{}," ：他应该还在过渡吧？过渡有时候需要很长时间的。（2012-08-03）",[827,1369,1370],{},"网友：这几个月我常常有减少交易频次、精选企业并长期投资的想法，也常有一种站在某个门槛之外，跨过去就更上一层楼的感觉。请问我是否需要改变交易方式？",[827,1372,1373,1375,1376,1378],{},[830,1374,832],{}," 你真的想改变吗？我认识一个球友，非常好赌，输了很多钱(过10亿元人民币了)，怎么劝都是没用。他本来做生意赚了不少钱，但赚得越多就赌得越大。对有些人来说，赌的快感是非常有吸引力的，",[866,1377,222],{"href":1170},"有时候难以抗衡。",[827,1380,1381],{},"改变不容易，但任何时候可能都是好时机。",[827,1383,1384,1385,1387,1388,1390],{},"客观讲，我确实见过戒赌成功的人，也确实见过有人从热衷于",[866,1386,125],{"href":872},"变成投资者。我还有个球友，搞了二三十年",[866,1389,125],{"href":872},"，心力交瘁，早早就满头白发，不过运气还不错，赚了不少钱。前些年突然幡然醒悟，满仓了几个好公司后就开始好好打球了，目前球技大涨的同时投资回报也很好，人也放松了很多。希望这个能鼓励到你。",[827,1392,1393,1394,1396,1397,1399],{},"网友：我叔叔",[866,1395,125],{"href":872},"炒股亏损累累，您觉得有没有什么办法能让他尽快从",[866,1398,125],{"href":872},"的弯路回到投资的本质呢？",[827,1401,1402],{},"我没办法。80%以上的人都如此，试图改变一个人是不现实的。俗话说佛只渡有缘人，你就由他去吧。",[827,1404,1405,1406,1408],{},"我发现",[866,1407,58],{"href":868},"对很多人来讲就像对面那座大山，看起来很近，实际上可能还很远。",[827,1410,1411],{},"假装会游泳是很危险的，假装会投资也一样。不过很多人不很理解假装会投资的危险到底在哪里，直到他们理解了危险。",[827,1413,1414],{},"炒股最危险的日子是礼拜一，其次分别是礼拜五，礼拜四，礼拜二，礼拜三。类似的话好像是海明威说的？",[827,1416,1417,1418,1420],{},"网友：很多人提出",[866,1419,58],{"href":868},"和趋势两者结合的问题，您怎么看？",[827,1422,1423,1425,1426,1428],{},[830,1424,832],{}," 呵呵，我见过做趋势很厉害的人，做了几十年，但依然还是“小资金”。用",[830,1427,948],{},"的“逆向思维”想一下，你也许就对“趋势”没那么感兴趣了。",[827,1430,1431,1434],{},[830,1432,1433],{},"问"," ：我们注意到刚才列举的股票都是您长期持有的，请问您如何看待短线投资？",[827,1436,1437,1439,1440,912],{},[830,1438,832],{}," 我也曾做过一些短线，但仅仅是为了好玩。短线在我看来不是投资，而是投机。投机和去澳门赌博并没有本质区别。不可否认有人通过这个赚到大钱，但那和中彩票一样，是旁人学不来的。但这也无可厚非，这是“for fun or for money”的区别。（",[830,1441,1442],{},"2009",[827,1444,1445,1446,1448,1451,1452,1454],{},"网友：如果一家公司为上市融资获得高估值而财务造假，导致董事长被捕入狱。但这家公司所处行业毛利率在30%以上，而且刚签了大合同。在公司出现大跌时，我买入并",[866,1447,197],{"href":1158},[866,1449,120],{"href":1450},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","，打电话询问公司主营业务的进展，新董事长会在公司管理上做出调整来防范再次出现危机。我这样做算不算一个",[866,1453,125],{"href":872},"者？",[827,1456,1457,1459],{},[830,1458,832],{}," 如果你真打算持有10年的话就不算，希望你能睡好觉。",[827,1461,1462],{},"网友：大佬买股票，就像狼在森林里捕食一样，看准了，有十足把握才会出手。",[827,1464,1465,1467],{},[830,1466,832],{}," 很多人以为是狩猎，其实是农夫种田。",[827,1469,1470],{},"狩猎是互为猎物的，是个零和游戏。投资是赚公司赚的钱。短期看有时候很像，但时间长了区别非常大。",[827,1472,1473,1474,1477,1478,1480],{},"非常有趣的是，如果人们不是买“未来",[866,1475,88],{"href":1476},"\u002Fxianjinliu","”的话，那他们到底买的是什么呢？不是买“未来",[866,1479,88],{"href":1476},"”的实际上很可能是在加入一个零和游戏中，大家互为猎手和猎物，比的就是“技术”了，而且“高手”也可能随时被“菜鸟”从后面干掉的。",[827,1482,1483],{},"把投资看成种田的人心态会好很多，因为他们大致知道自己在干嘛，虽然也有天气不太好的时候。互为猎物的游戏好像就有点紧张了。我看到很多人在玩这种游戏时，有时候会想起电影里士兵从一个弹坑跳到另一个弹坑的情景，有时候也会想起电影里看到的那些互相寻找对方的狙击手们。",[827,1485,1486,1487,1489,1490,1492,1493,1495,1496,1498],{},"投资和",[866,1488,125],{"href":872},"的很大差别其实就在这里。",[866,1491,125],{"href":872},"的很多理由是和市场上其他人的观点有很大关系的，而其他人的观点(市场的观点)可以变化得很快，所以",[866,1494,125],{"href":872},"人可能需要每天根据他自己",[866,1497,125],{"href":872},"理由的变化做出调整。",[827,1500,1501,1502,1504,1505,1508,1509,1511],{},"厉害的",[866,1503,125],{"href":872},"者(比如",[830,1506,1507],{},"索罗斯",")确实也有机会赚(亏)大钱，但是很累且不好学。比如前段时间我看到有报道说",[830,1510,1507],{},"开始大举投入黄金，理由是他已经看到了黄金的泡沫正在形成，现在还是泡沫的初级阶段，所以现在进去，等到泡沫破灭前出来就可以赚到大钱。呵呵，我想我大致明白他的意思，但我自己绝对没有能力去搞清楚现在泡沫到底处在哪个阶段。",[827,1513,1514,1515,1517],{},"我可不想让自己的生活处在",[830,1516,1507],{},"们的阴影下，最后还要在泡沫破灭前做他的买家。",[827,1519,1520,1522],{},[866,1521,125],{"href":872},"是个刺激的游戏，建议喜欢玩的人一定要量力而行。",[827,1524,1525],{},"投资是个快乐的事情，投资人可以慢慢享受其过程。（2010-05-20）",[827,1527,1528,1529,1531,1532,1534,1535,1537,1538,1540,1541,1543],{},"我其实从来不认为",[866,1530,125],{"href":872},"是贬义，有朋友说",[866,1533,125],{"href":872},"就是“投资在机会上”，呵呵。我只是认为投资和",[866,1536,125],{"href":872},"不是一种游戏。从投资的角度看，",[866,1539,125],{"href":872},"确实有点像赌博。也许从赌博的角度看，",[866,1542,125],{"href":872},"有点像投资？",[827,1545,1546],{},"很久以前，有人对我说，股市就是个赌场，我说不是，他坚持说是。我突然悟到：对那些说股市是赌场的人来说，那就是赌场！",[827,1548,1549],{},"网友：想问一个问题，对于投资是不是有人天生就是可以做的很好，而有些人必须通过不断修炼才能做到，或者在投资这个事情上只适合有天赋的人，",[827,1551,1552,1554],{},[830,1553,881],{}," ：没见过天生会做投资的人，但见过很多喜欢投机的人。（2019-09-19）",[827,1556,1557],{},"“If you're an investor，you're looking on what the asset is going to do，if you're a speculator，you're commonly focusing on what the price of the object is going to do，and that's not our game. ”",[827,1559,1560,1561,1563],{},"网友：我有个同学也喜欢",[830,1562,1507],{},"，但他亏了一半的钱。",[827,1565,1566,1568],{},[830,1567,832],{}," 喜欢没关系，学他就有危险了。",[827,1570,1571,1572,1574,1575,1577],{},"网友：我父亲今年60岁，以前炒股和炒期货赚了些钱，后面没过多久全赔进去了，还借了高利贷。我已经让他去看",[830,1573,975],{},"和",[830,1576,881],{},"了，但我深知只要他把钱投进股市，那一定还是会一分不剩。我想制止他但又不知道如何再劝！",[827,1579,1580,1582,1583,1586],{},[830,1581,832],{}," 人们最终会成为他自己，",[830,1584,1585],{},"People never learn(人们从不吸取教训)","。不知道为什么我想起了这两句话。",[827,1588,1589,1591],{},[830,1590,832],{}," 投资的定义在我来讲就是拥有一家公司的部分或者全部，最简单的概念就是“拥有”。假设某家公司去年每股赚一块，今年赚两块钱，成长率百分之百，有人说明年可能还会再涨。后年呢？后年不知道。你如果是你自己的钱，把这家公司买下来，你会买吗？你说只要后面有人买我的股票，你就会买。这就叫投机。",[827,1593,1594,1597],{},[830,1595,1596],{},"对于投资和投机的区别，我有一个最简单的衡量办法，就是以现在这样的价格，这家公司如果不是一个上市公司你还买不买？如果你决定还买，这就叫投资；如果非上市公司你就不买了，这就叫投机。"," 就像我当时买网易我为什么能够在那个价格买到（那么多量），因为NASDAQ有个规定，一块钱以下的股票超过多少时间就会下市，所以很多人害怕下市，就把股票卖出来。在一块钱以下就卖了。",[827,1599,1600],{},"因为他们怕下市。你知道我为什么不怕呢？这就是我投资的道理。我买它跟它上不上市无关，它价格低于价值我就会买。步步高就没有上过市，但我因此就把公司卖了，这没道理啊，很荒唐，你说我创立公司后只是因为它不上市就卖了，那我开公司干嘛？这些确实是我骨子里的东西。",[827,1602,1603],{},"网友：林劲峰首次向《投资者报》记者透露，那次买进后不久又卖出了，“当时主要是想给茅台一些鼓励，节前关于茅台非议太多。”不过林劲峰表示那次短线也挣了些钱，175元买进，185时卖出。“上礼拜165点位我又买进一些，而后169卖出。”林劲峰认为白酒行业将有3到5年调整。",[827,1605,1606,1608],{},[830,1607,881],{}," ：一般短线赚钱了的意思和去赌场赚了钱的意思一样，人们喜欢把自己赢的那把告诉别人，而不是整个故事。他大概是为了显示自己短线也很厉害吧，看起来有点滑稽。（2013-04-06）",[827,1610,1611,1613],{},[830,1612,881],{}," ：我理解的所谓投资其实和“市场”（短期）没关系，所以没有谁比谁聪明的问题，但有每个人了解的东西不一样的概念。我认为的投机就是认为自己可以比市场快一步。我认为的投资和市场没关系（意思就是别人短期怎么看没关系）。如果一个投机分子认为市场比自己聪明的话，从一开始他就不会介入（来小玩玩的不算哈），当然最后大部分人确实证明了市场确实更聪明。",[827,1615,1616],{},"从长期的角度看，市场是绝顶聪明的！其实很多“购买并持有”的人们实际上就是投机分子，因为他们自己其实不知道自己买的是什么，所以买了以后需要整天问别人怎么看，在被套时就拿出“长期投资”来安慰自己。要知道，没什么比买错股票并长期持有伤害更大的了。",[827,1618,1619,1620,1275],{},"网友：最近我在美团出财报之前买入了一些，我的理由是美团在这次外卖大战中不会输，我2014年左右在淘点点和口碑干过，我认为美团与它们相比，多方面都更强。我的问题是，我这种认为阿里不能赢美团而买美团的行为，是投资还是",[866,1621,125],{"href":872},[827,1623,1624,941,1626,1184],{},[830,1625,832],{},[866,1627,125],{"href":872},[827,1629,1630],{},"网友W：如果一家公司出现了危机，比如为了上市融资获得高估值而财务造假，虚增收入虚增利润而导致该公司董事长辞职，后又被捕入狱。但这家公司所处行业毛利率普遍在30%以上，尤其是这家公司刚刚签了一个城市的5亿人民币园林绿化工程的合约。",[827,1632,1633,1634,1636],{},"在这家公司出现大跌的时候，我耐心买入",[866,1635,120],{"href":1450},"，并打电话询问公司主营业务的进展，公司新董事长会在公司管理上做出如何的调整来防范再次出现危机。我这样做算不算一个投机者？",[827,1638,1639,1641],{},[830,1640,832],{}," 如果你真打算持有10年的话就不算，希望你能睡好觉.（2011-03-22）",[827,1643,1644,1646],{},[830,1645,832],{}," 不做短期的投机。有人说这件事我不指望赚钱，就当消费玩玩，一次一次这样就不聚焦了。常在河边走，难免会湿鞋，湿一回鞋子就会湿一辈子。（2018-09-30）",[827,1648,1649],{},"网友：（有网友说期权持仓限制也是为了挡住大部分投机者）",[827,1651,1652],{},"大道：投机者对公司没影响的。公司只有一个真正的买家，明白这点后所有的东西都是浮云。（2026-06-10）",[827,1654,1655,1656,1658],{},"网友：感谢大道！您的加入给了",[866,1657,58],{"href":868},"者更多的持股信心。",[827,1660,1661,1662,1664],{},"大道：需要持股信心的绝对都是投机者，不要误会“",[866,1663,58],{"href":868},"”哈。（2026-05-07）",[827,1666,1667],{},"网友：在一个视频里，您说您也有两个账户，一个做长线一个做短线，做短线是为了好玩，这个是真实的吗？我有些疑惑：真的有办法把长线和短线分开吗？做短线做久了，会影响自己的判断决策进而影响到长线的交易吗？",[827,1669,1670,1672],{},[830,1671,832],{}," 早期确实有过。（2025-08-05）",[827,1674,1675],{},"网友：大资金做投资，小资金可以考虑赌博吗？",[827,1677,1678,1680],{},[830,1679,832],{}," 当然可以啊，这大概率是维持小资金的最佳途径。（2025-10-5）",[827,1682,1683],{},"赌一般指的是48%赢面的下注，90%以上赢面的下注我一般称之为投资。",[827,1685,1686],{},"网友：段大哥谈了很多投资，可否谈一点点投机呢？",[827,1688,1689,1691],{},[830,1690,881],{}," ：投资像种田，投机像打猎？（2013-04-18）",[827,1693,1694],{},"网友D：打猎若是不知道目标为何物是很危险的。",[827,1696,1697,1699],{},[830,1698,881],{}," ：投机是零和游戏，大家互为猎物。（2013-04-18）",[827,1701,1702],{},"网友G：太经典了！",[827,1704,1705],{},"投资和投资在目的上面是一致的，都是赚到钱。但是心态完全不一样。投机更多的使用了预测，直觉。而投资更多基于经验和实事。所以（价值）投资者对市场波动不太在意。",[827,1707,1708,1710],{},[830,1709,881],{}," ：但投机这种打猎有时候会被猎物干掉。",[827,1712,1713],{},"网友：行为上该怎么区别投资和投机呢？",[827,1715,1716,1718],{},[830,1717,832],{}," 其一，你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱。在我看来，投机有点像在赌场玩，不能下重注，也不可能赢大钱。投资的概念就是可以下重手，没有很高的把握，比如90%左右，就不应该出手。",[827,1720,1721],{},"其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反。投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为有机会买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是，公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人。",[827,1723,1724],{},"投资和投机是很不同的游戏，看起来又非常像。就像在中国澳门，开赌场的是投资者，赌客是投机者。赌场总有源源不断的客源，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赌客总是赢钱的比较大声些。",[827,1726,1727],{},"作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人。不懂不碰，至少85%的人不适合投资。",[827,1729,1730],{},"问：长线持有、非多元化，这样的投资理念是否需要极大的勇气？",[827,1732,1733,1735],{},[830,1734,881],{}," ：投资不需要任何勇气。投资做的是“两块钱的东西，一块钱卖给你”的生意，这不需要任何勇气，只需要你确信它是值两块钱的。反之，一个投资者，如果需要借助勇气，那么说明他正在恐慌。之所以恐慌，是因为他对投资产品的不了解，而这恰恰是与巴菲特“不做空，不借钱炒股，不做不懂的东西”的投资戒律相抵触的。需要勇气的都是投机。",[827,1737,1738],{},"区别投资和投机这两种类似行为的一个有效办法就是，当股票价格下跌的时候，投资者不会感到恐慌和害怕，而投机者会。",[827,1740,1741],{},"网友：投资这东西除了智慧还需要胆量吧。",[827,1743,1744,1746],{},[830,1745,832],{}," 需要胆量的是投机，投资不需要勇气，也就是说当你需要勇气时你就危险了。（2010-03-16）",[827,1748,1749,1750,1752],{},"网友：我认为bargain很容易看出来找到，只是人们到那时候反而不敢下手去买了，而且bargain也是需要无限的",[866,1751,197],{"href":1158},"去等待的。耐心加勇气加理性加常识呵呵",[827,1754,1755,1757],{},[830,1756,832],{}," 不敢下手是人们不认为那是bargain。价值投资不需要勇气，需要的是对投资标的的了解。投机却需要很大的勇气。（2010-03-05）",[827,1759,1760],{},"网友：股票市场严格来说是一个以各种人性主体参与，以利益为核心的博弈文化。少而精确更容易取得博弈的主动权！",[827,1762,1763,1765],{},[830,1764,832],{}," 博弈是投机的概念（2010-05-20）",[827,1767,1768],{},"网友S：投资也好，投机也罢，都是博弈。今年最大的收获是临近年底，才能将价值，趋势和交易融合在一起。也是临近年底，才开始体会理解了一些如何识别好的生意模式。",[827,1770,1771,1773],{},[830,1772,832],{}," 其实投机是博弈，非常需要水平，也很难学，反正我学不会，觉得太累。投资像打golf，只管自己打好就行了，其实和别人干什么没有直接关系，虽然结果看起来是有关的。（2012-12-31）",[827,1775,1776],{},"网友：“如果你是个投资者，你会关注资产怎么增值；如果你是个投机者，你会常常关心市场价格将会怎么波动。这不是我们的游戏。”",[827,1778,1779,1781],{},[830,1780,832],{}," 应该是这个意思。（2016-12-22）",[827,1783,1784],{},"网友：投机很难学到的。我还是先做：好业务、好管理、好价格的“三好学生”！",[827,1786,1787,1789],{},[830,1788,832],{}," 呵呵，你这话很精辟。其实投机比投资难学多了，但投机刺激，好玩，所以大多数人还是喜欢投机。（2010-03-27）",[827,1791,1792],{},"网友：钱少的时候更要投机！不然更没有希望了。",[827,1794,1795,1797],{},[830,1796,832],{}," 也可能是因为投机而钱少啊。谁不是从钱少过来的呢？（2010-03-18）",[827,1799,1800],{},"网友：那么请问我们应该赚投机人的钱还是被投机人的钱？",[827,1802,1803,1805],{},[830,1804,832],{}," 如果你也是投机人的话，这两种情况会交替出现。价值投资者眼里只看投资标的，不应该看别人。（2010-03-26）",[827,1807,1808],{},"网友：做波段是投机的特征之一。很难把握吧？",[827,1810,1811,1813],{},[830,1812,832],{}," 做波段当然是投机啊，而且是典型的投机。投资的眼睛是看着投资标的，投机的眼睛是看着别人的。呵呵，总有些人在某些波段能赚到钱，而另一波人在同一个波段亏钱。（2010-03-26）",[827,1815,1816],{},"网友：会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅．-----我认为这是投机。",[827,1818,1819,1821],{},[830,1820,832],{}," 同意你的说法。（2012-06-24）",[827,1823,1824,1826],{},[830,1825,832],{}," 我也想过这么做来着，谁不想赚差价啊，但这么做的结果基本上都是瞎忙半天还少赚了，所以以后就不再想干这种事情了。知其不可为也很重要啊。（2019-05-20）",[827,1828,1829],{},"【引用】巴菲特语录：想要在股市从事波段操作是神做的事，不是人做的事。",[827,1831,1832],{},"网友：我是从技术分析转向价值投资的，但一直以来一个问题始终比较困惑，在坚定的持有一支股票的过程中，出现了许多技术共振指标，明知道要下跌，却因坚定的持有而没有卖，坐了几次的过山车。所以我想请教您，如果执行波段操作，是否违背了价值投资？深为困惑，望您指点津。",[827,1834,1835,1837],{},[830,1836,881],{}," ：波段操作没有违背价值投资。我觉得波段操作根本就不是价值投资。（2010-05-08）",[827,1839,1840],{},"网友：不太懂……我已经上了船，但总是提心吊胆的，公司不是确实为股东而存在。",[827,1842,1843,1845],{},[830,1844,832],{}," 如果你提心吊胆就表示你不知道自己买了什么，或者叫在投机。当然，我知道有人喜欢提心吊胆的感觉，所以澳门的生意才那么好。有至少85%的人是不适合投资的，突然发现自己不适合也不是什么不好意思的事情，只要现在“回头是岸”，你的“不投资”表现至少可以比85%的人好哈。（2013-04-24）",[827,1847,1848],{},"网友：A股有时像赌场甚至不如赌场有规则，吴敬琏老师几年前也这样认为，不知道现在是不是？",[827,1850,1851,1853],{},[830,1852,832],{}," 在投机的人的眼里，哪个市场都是赌场，美国也一样。吴敬琏老师的意思可能是认为A股的投机比例特别高些。我认为是正常的，美国投机的人也很多，不然我们怎么赚钱？",[827,1855,1856],{},"网友K：不好意思，个人的理解是：赌场只有资产的转移，没有资产的增值。A股至少到目前为止现状类此。然后赌场算是规矩清晰，而A股规矩缺失，并且也违规没有强硬彻底的追究。所以吴老说A股不如赌场。说到投机，个人认为理智的投机者也是极其讲究和依赖逻辑的，不过可能他们不苛求逻辑链条的全部的清晰严谨，而允许有部分环节的灵活弹性哈。请段总交流一下。",[827,1858,1859],{},"呵呵如果引入逻辑这个概念，那么从投资的角度来看，投机确实不够严谨清晰，而因为风险无处不在，所以：不清晰＋风险无处不在＝收益不可靠，赌博的收益也不可靠，所以它们像。不过在赌博角度，赌博纯运气主宰，非条理、不靠谱、无需专业训练，而无论投资投机，总是靠谱的，有想法并按想法下手，所以它们像哈。",[827,1861,1862,1864],{},[830,1863,832],{}," 呵呵，有道理。像我这种普通老百姓还是觉得学投机太难了，还很难赚钱，何苦呢？（2010-03-28）",[827,1866,1867],{},"网友F：感觉段总把投机和赌博搞混了。相信您一定没看过jesse livermore的How to Trade in Stocks（杰西·利弗摩尔\u003C股票大作手操盘术>）。他开篇的一段话就说明了投机不是赌博：“投机，天下最彻头彻尾充满魔力的游戏。但是，这个游戏愚蠢的人不能玩，懒得动脑子的人不能玩，心理不健全的人不能玩，企图一夜暴富的冒险家不能玩。",[827,1869,1870],{},"这些人如果贸然卷入，到头来终究是一贫如洗。”",[827,1872,1873],{},"投机其实很简单，只是因为人性都喜欢复杂，把它也搞复杂了。",[827,1875,1876,1878],{},[830,1877,832],{}," 你说的有道理。我其实从来不认为投机是贬义，有朋友说投机就是“投资在机会上”，呵呵。我只是认为投资和投机不是一种游戏。从投资的角度看，投机确实有点像赌博。也许从赌博的角度看，投机有点像投资？（2010-03-28）",[827,1880,1881],{},"网友：有人出个对联：追题材割蓝筹股股亏损，拆东墙补西墙墙墙有洞！",[827,1883,1884,1886],{},[830,1885,832],{}," 横批：钱越玩越少。",[827,1888,1889],{},"网友S：我回个。是借段先生一个幽默写的。先抄底再割肉刀刀痛心，睡半夜哭醒后哭哭再睡。横批：底越抄越低。",[827,1891,1892,1894],{},[830,1893,881],{}," ：很正常，抄底本来就是投机的概念。",[827,1896,1897,1899],{},[830,1898,832],{}," “价值投资者容易抄底抄在半山腰，花旗银行的股价从60美元跌至1美元的过程中就套牢了一大批试图抄底的价值投资者。”？",[827,1901,1902,1904],{},[830,1903,832],{}," 想想不认错的后果可能就没那么疼了。",[827,1906,1907],{},"巴菲特：市场就像上帝一样，帮助那些自己帮助自己的人，但与上帝不一样的地方是，他不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。",[827,1909,1910],{},"网友：我95年开始投资中国香港股市，至今个人账户市值升值数千倍，2011年成立投资公司投资港股，公司市值至今却几乎无增长，个人觉得成功投资不可复制，段大哥如何看法？",[827,1912,1913,1915],{},[830,1914,881],{}," ：很久以前，有人对我说，股市就是个赌场，我说不是，他坚持说是。我突然悟到：对那些说股市是赌场的人来说，那就是赌场！（2019-09-16）",[827,1917,1918],{},"网友：一直有几个问题：炒股时的感觉到底是不是快乐的。我很多时候就不快乐，困惑，焦虑。不快乐为什么炒股呢？为了赚钱炒股，还是应该是因为有了钱再投资股票。我觉得很多人都是为了赚钱，这是不是有问题呢？他们能快乐吗？怎么样才能快乐投资呢？",[827,1920,1921,1923],{},[830,1922,832],{}," 这个问题你可能需要去问炒股的人们吧？我其实也很好奇炒股的人们到底是在干什么。（2013-05-24）",[827,1925,1926,1928],{},[830,1927,832],{}," 呵呵，我确实有过体验，发现和厉害的人打牌的时候，每次我有牌他总能fold，确实有意思。（2011-12-31）",[827,1930,1931],{},"网友L：对，主要是fish多。我同意你德州和投资是不同游戏的观点，尽管看起来有点像。",[827,1933,1934,1936],{},[830,1935,832],{}," 呵呵，投资和投机本来就是双胞胎一样，但实际上是两个人。（2011-12-31）",[827,1938,1939],{},"网友：段总玩不玩德州扑克？我感觉德州扑克和投资有很大的相似性，打打德州扑克可以磨磨人的性格，在这个游戏里面，赢的多的人不是最聪明的，而是最有理性的人。",[827,1941,1942,1944],{},[830,1943,832],{}," 不太像投资，倒有点像投机。（2013-07-01）",[827,1946,1947],{},"网友L：坐在桌上打牌的时候，我会不自禁的去观察每个人的表情和动作，给他建立一套打牌风格。",[827,1949,1950,1952],{},[830,1951,832],{}," 我也很喜欢打德州扑克，但不觉得这个游戏和投资的关系很大。投资的时候我是可以完全忽略别人的，但打牌的时候却必须时刻关注别人的反应，所以觉得打牌确实像博弈。",[827,1954,1955],{},"网友L：我发现在牌桌上有一种人，只按着自己的套路打牌，长期算下来总账是赢不少的。因为总有人在他已经成牌的情况下仍然愿意花大钱去买牌。",[827,1957,1958,1960],{},[830,1959,832],{}," 那是因为对手的水平不高吧？",[827,1962,1963],{},"网友：我每天在看市场目标赚$100，今天来回交易8次佣金去了$80，赚到$555还不错吧",[827,1965,1966,1968],{},[830,1967,832],{}," 你这种做法，时间长了一定没钱赚，搞不好连利息都赔掉啊（也许你已经知道了，但就是改不了）。为什么放着阳关道不走呢？看起来你也不笨，应该找个地方去面壁10天，也许能有所悟。（2010-07-07）",[827,1970,1971],{},"网友S：现在我大部分钱都买YHOO@$14左右；放着走阳光道！剩下两万多现金，用来day trading目标每天赚$100，来维持日常开销……",[827,1973,1974,1976],{},[830,1975,832],{}," 呵呵，day trading is good for fun。（2010-07-07）",[827,1978,1979],{},"网友B：都像您这样day trading，股市就成慈善机构了。",[827,1981,1982,1984],{},[830,1983,832],{}," 股市里很多人这样，不然那些行怎么活？（2010-07-08）",[827,1986,1987],{},"网友C：没有投机者也没有股市，看来投资和投机都是要并存的。",[827,1989,1990,1992],{},[830,1991,832],{}," 其实没区别，差异在谁会生存下来。",[827,1994,1995,1998],{},[830,1996,1997],{},"同意，但从长远的角度看，投机者很难长期生存下来。难道大家没看到总是有很多人会告诫你说不要炒股或者说自己已经不炒股了？当然，当大家都认为该炒股时，价值投资者就该狂逃了"," 。（2010-08-15）",[827,2000,2001],{},"网友：刚报名了高校炒股大赛，4个交易周，应该很刺激。",[827,2003,2004,2006],{},[830,2005,832],{}," 那你白来这里了。（2010-11-10）",[827,2008,2009],{},"网友：误会啊，我的账户是做价值特投资的。我也知道炒股大赛都是短线投机（制度缺陷），但是很好玩啊，巴老和您不也觉得短线好玩吗？",[827,2011,2012],{},"没有白来。一直在看您的博客，今晚突然有个灵感：段总是教不会我投资的，唯一的办法是靠我自己去悟。一直都搞错了。",[827,2014,2015,2017],{},[830,2016,832],{}," 所谓有关投资的比赛其实都是比投机的，所以报名的都是投机的，所以你还没有基本的价值投资的概念。（2010-11-11）",[827,2019,2020],{},"网友：我最佩服的两种trader是：第一种是纯以forex为生的，因为炒forex比stock难。第二种是在中国大陆纯以A股为生的，因为没有dt，没有option，炒期指门槛高。这种人能长期存活并赚钱的是真正的牛，如果让他们操美股，那将是飞龙在天，游刃有余。各位都佩服什么样的人呢？",[827,2022,2023,2025],{},[830,2024,881],{}," ：我佩服那些一直坚持不懈亏钱的人们。（2011-09-24）",[827,2027,2028],{},"网友：随便说一个方法开发一点思路。如果你发现有两个或以上的股票／ETF比较接近，考察一下内在关联机理，打个比方，SOHU／CYOU，SPY／EEM。建立模型，以模型为基础，建立一个对冲仓位，对对冲仓位进行历史数据分析，比如说你有一个对冲仓位的图表。那你就有点牛皮了，如果这个仓位的确有内涵的道理存……",[827,2030,2031,2033],{},[830,2032,881],{}," ：这种工夫花得越多赚得越少。对冲的好处是该赚时不多赚，该赔时不少赔。（2012-03-14）",[827,2035,2036],{},"网友n：这一切都会过去的：98年亚洲金融危机，2000年科技网络股泡沫破裂，08年美国次贷危机，15年股灾，当前的贸易战……",[827,2038,2039,2041],{},[830,2040,832],{}," 炒股最危险的日子是礼拜一，其次分别是礼拜五，礼拜四，礼拜二，礼拜三。类似的话好像是海明威说的？（2019-05-24）",[827,2043,2044],{},"网友：今天看到金岩石的文章，让我又想起了索罗斯的价值投资之外，泡沫投资方式，记得索罗斯说过，我看到泡沫开始时建仓，等泡沫成熟时撤出。",[827,2046,2047],{},"金岩石的说法是这样的：当人们一讲到泡沫时都以下假设，我觉得这是个错误的观念，只要是泡沫就会破，而且只要泡沫生成必然马上要破，当年我们对资产泡沫缺乏理论认识，最近研究逐渐开始让人们认识泡沫是可能长期存在的，而且泡沫实际上是现代社会一种财富形态，它可能会在未来的某一个时点破，这就意味着风险在上升，但是我们有可能需要接受泡沫资产化和泡沫会长期存在的事实。",[827,2049,2050,2052],{},[830,2051,881],{}," ：呵呵，这就是有水平的投机？（2010-04-04）",[827,2054,2055],{},"网友：如果市场恐惧和疯狂的程度可以大致评估的话，恐惧到什么程度可买进？疯狂到什么程度应抛出？是否有1个可量化的指标？或曰1个可量化的参照物？段总在“可买进”的时候初始仓位一般控制在多少呵呵？然后若股价递减多少时增仓多少？呵呵。",[827,2057,2058,2060],{},[830,2059,832],{}," 炒股票啊？你这样炒股怎么可能天天开心呢？这种想法的结果一定是天天操心。（2011-01-05）",[827,2062,2063,2064,2067],{},"网友：这次事件（2015年7月股市暴跌），让我体会到，无论是市场监管者和市场参与者，做好风险控制都是至关重要的，可以说是首要职责和投资的前提。而作为个人投资参与者，巴菲特讲的不做空、不借钱做保证金交易、不做不懂的东西、留足",[866,2065,101],{"href":2066},"\u002Fanquanbianji","，这些讲的就是关于风险控制的事，对吗？",[827,2069,2070,2072],{},[830,2071,881],{}," ：我从来不做风控。银行需要风控是因为银行需要借钱进来还要借钱出去。投资的风控是什么意思我不太知道，但投机是绝对需要风控的。（2015-07-08）",[827,2074,2075],{},"网友：我是07年5200点入市，10多年来在股市收益己远超我的其他所有收入之和。到现在我仍会追高杀跌，仍会关注持仓每日的价格并受困扰。我的投资主要是精选个股中短期持有（几天-24个月）．对于过去的投资结果，我自己总结是运气和选股。",[827,2077,2078],{},"我的问题是：这几个月，我常常有减少交易频次，精选企业并长期投资的想法，常常有一种站在某个门槛之外，跨过去就更上一层楼的感觉，请问，我是否需要改变交易方式，这种感觉是否是长期盈利之后的某种自我膨胀？",[827,2080,2081,2083],{},[830,2082,881],{}," ：你真的想改变吗？我认识一个球友，非常好赌，输了很多钱（过10亿人民币了），怎么劝都是没用。他本来做生意赚了不少钱，但赚得越多就赌得越大。对有些人来说，赌的快感是非常有吸引力的，理性有时候难以抗衡哈。（2019-09-16）",[827,2085,2086],{},"网友b：华人里面做价值投资的真的不多，都是号称自己是价值投资者，我们还是学习巴菲特和老段吧！",[827,2088,2089,2091],{},[830,2090,881],{}," ：华人和其他人里面100%真正做价值投资的人本来就不多。但其实大多数投资人都或多或少都是价值投资者，经常能看到深一脚浅一脚的价值投资者，可能包括自己在内。（2013-04-07）",[827,2093,2094],{},"网友：从前景上看10年20年后有很多的票都很有前景，为什么您能做到只持有茅台不动心过其它的？……",[827,2096,2097,2099],{},[830,2098,832],{}," 把公司叫票的人大概内心深处都是炒家，你不会真的在乎10年20年的，说了也没啥用哈。（2019-05-21）",[827,2101,2102],{},"网友T：还有不少人说起哪个公司的股票，都是提代码。有时候我在想，又不是囚犯，干嘛不直接说名字，难道代码更容易记？",[827,2104,2105,2107,2108,2111],{},[830,2106,881],{}," ：",[830,2109,2110],{},"一般而言，一说就是“票”或代码的都是在trade，我还没见过例外。"," （2014-09-23）",[827,2113,2114],{},"网友：我集中精力学习研究在2，3个行业上面，资金也都放在2，3个票上……。",[827,2116,2117,2107,2119],{},[830,2118,881],{},[830,2120,2121],{},"非常讨厌有人把公司股票叫“票”，对自己投资的公司没有一点尊重或喜欢的感觉。",[827,2123,2124],{},"网友：不知道在a股市场里有谁是价值投资的成功者，那个最牛的王亚伟是专业的重组垃圾股的投资者。朋友们能介绍几个a股的价值投资的成功者吗？好好的学学！",[827,2126,2127,2129],{},[830,2128,832],{}," 林园算一个。（2013-07-07）",[827,2131,2132],{},"网友：淘米曾一度受到热捧，股价在一个月内到过17.9美元，曾经在17.85逃顶的人想起来一身冷汗哈。",[827,2134,2135,2137],{},[830,2136,832],{}," 不明真相的群众：没有成功逃跑的人飘过。",[822,2139,2141],{"id":2140},"第二节-买option是投机卖option像开赌场","第二节 买option是投机，卖option像开赌场",[827,2143,2144,2146],{},[830,2145,881],{}," ：我不买option的。买option的逻辑有点问题。比如，如果你觉得GE会跌，你干嘛要买呢？买option长期而言一定会亏钱的，因为时间是你的敌人。投资最好的地方就是，时间是我的朋友。买option的人里90%最后都是亏钱的。卖option的则基本上是赚钱的。（2010-05-09）",[827,2148,2149,2152],{},[830,2150,2151],{},"段永平：我觉得卖call最好是在所谓股价差不多时，既不怕股票大跌，又不舍得在眼前价钱全部卖掉，"," 卖cavered calls是个很有意思的做法。其实我的网易就是这么卖的。当网易到接近30时我就开始卖30的calls，后来一路涨我就一路卖，从30一直卖到了50.现在剩下的股票都是没有被call走的。由于前段时间长的快，绝大部分都被call走了。",[827,2154,2155],{},"好像最高的是40多被call走的。（2010-08-12）",[827,2157,2158],{},[830,2159,2160],{},"卖call的风险",[827,2162,2163,2166],{},[830,2164,2165],{},"段永平：恐慌时往往有便宜的股票，不是很适合卖put"," 。option还是不学为好，会的到时自然会的，学来学去学到的都是投机的东西。（2010-08-12）",[827,2168,2169,2172],{},[830,2170,2171],{},"段永平：option一定是建立在对基本面的理解上。"," 非价值投资的人做option多数都会反着做，最后大多都会很难看。（2011-04-09）",[827,2174,2175],{},[830,2176,2177],{},"开赌场和赌博",[827,2179,2180,2182],{},[830,2181,832],{}," 买option是投机，长期这么做早晚要亏钱。我不太愿意提option的原因就是，大多数人只能理解到买option，就像很多人想去赌场赚钱一样。对某些特定条件下的自己懂的股票卖option（puts或covered calls）实际上相当于开赌场。（2011-04-11）",[827,2184,2185,2187],{},[830,2186,832],{}," 卖权证的心态是长线（从长远的眼光看企业或权证），买权证的是短线。就像开赌场的是“长线”，赌客是短线的意思一样。（2011-04-15）",[827,2189,2190,2192],{},[830,2191,832],{}," 我说的卖call一定指的是covered的call，和市场无关但和了解有很大的关系，不了解的公司绝对不能碰任何option。卖put也不需要“大量”的资金，钱多多做些，没钱就不做，和别的一样。（2011-07-16）",[827,2194,2195,2197],{},[830,2196,832],{}," 从本质上来讲，卖option就是在赚投机者的钱，实际上是在和投机者对赌。投机者想来赌场的赌客，卖covered call和有些股票的put的则有点像赌场。（2011-07-17）",[827,2199,2200,2202],{},[830,2201,832],{}," 买option是投机行为！我如果买option就是愚蠢！最郁闷的是每次跟别人讲卖option时别人都说我在买，买和卖真的那么难区分吗？有一个简单的区别，卖是收钱的哈。（2011-10-04）",[827,2204,2205,2208,2209,912],{},[830,2206,2207],{},"段永平：好公司很可能会因为卖option把机会错失"," 了。（",[830,2210,2211],{},"2018-10-02",[827,2213,2214],{},"网友F：这不就是您说的毛估估吗？你已经很想买正股了，当然不会介意以更便宜的价格买。",[827,2216,2217,2219],{},[830,2218,832],{}," 对，卖put的根本道理就这一条，不知道为什么会被人说得那么复杂。",[827,2221,2222],{},"网友M：option可以作为价值投资的辅助工具？",[827,2224,2225,2227],{},[830,2226,832],{}," 是啊，老巴也用啊。不过，老巴规模太大，只能卖点s&p的put。我自己也觉得越来越难用了，规模大了以后市场没容量，卖不出好价钱就没意思了。",[827,2229,2230,2232],{},[830,2231,832],{}," 看了查理宝典之后，总觉得对我而言，yahoo并不是最理想的投资。",[827,2234,2235,2238],{},[830,2236,2237],{},"段永平：yahoo换了新的CEO后其实风险增加了"," ，我自己的策略还是继续卖option，但不会增加投入，实际上是慢慢在减少YHOO",[827,2240,2241],{},"网友：大道，这次卖YHOO的16元的CALL，通过您以前的发言，我感觉与以前的逻辑有一点区别，您认为yhoo不仅仅值16，但是由于美国业务的下滑，马云说淘宝近几年不会上市，因此YHOO近期不会上涨，所以卖CALL，是这样的吗？",[827,2243,2244,2246,2247,855,2250],{},[830,2245,832],{}," 卖option最重要的不是预测，是不怕。",[830,2248,2249],{},"比如在某些价位我不怕yhoo掉，就可以卖put了，不怕他涨以后就卖call了",[830,2251,2252],{},"yhoo董事会很烂，我只能靠卖点call赚钱了。",[827,2254,2255,2258,2259,2262],{},[830,2256,2257],{},"段永平：我一般想卖的股票会倾向于卖call"," ，",[830,2260,2261],{},"除非是着急用钱或想跑的时候。我的网易就是用卖call的办法慢慢卖掉的"," ，现在也还没卖完呢，手里还有一些被卖了45的call，明年一月到期。这个价位的网易我不会卖put，但以前在20块左右的时候可是买过很多put，有一次一下就被put进来很多万股，呵呵。",[827,2264,2265,2267],{},[830,2266,832],{}," 卖covered call的风险有两个方面，一是突然大涨而失去潜在利润，二是大掉而亏掉本钱。对yhoo而言，大涨我不怕，只是少赚而已。大跌我也不怕，因为我觉得我了解yhoo的价值，知道掉下来迟早也会涨回来。",[827,2269,2270],{},"网友：没整明白，“二是大掉而亏掉本钱”请求解释？",[827,2272,2273,2275],{},[830,2274,832],{}," 补充个例子：比如你13块买了yhoo，今天卖个15块的call收1.5刀／股，结果到期前yhoo掉到5块，你就亏到本钱了。",[827,2277,2278,2281],{},[830,2279,2280],{},"段永平：严重低估的股票千万不要卖call"," ，不然就亏大了。我觉得yhoo不属于严重低估的，尤其是这个董事会下。",[827,2283,2284,2286],{},[830,2285,832],{}," 卖put的缺点是，往往好不容易找到的好公司，因为卖了put而错过买进的机会。这里需要强调的是：卖put和买股票卖covered call是一样的，数学上没区别。",[827,2288,2289],{},"网友：卖看跌期权本质上就是卖保险。当你对投资对象很有信心的时候，这真是一个好工具。",[827,2291,2292,941,2294],{},[830,2293,832],{},[830,2295,2296],{},"我也一直用卖保险来比喻。但两者最本质的差别其实是保险的费率大概是可以算出来的，put不能。卖put实际上就是为自己不拥有的东西投保。我只为自己想拥有的股票投保。",[827,2298,2299],{},"网友l：卖了call，未到期不能卖手里的正股。",[827,2301,2302,2304],{},[830,2303,832],{}," 可以卖，但卖掉后就成naked的call了，违背原则。卖naked call和做short都是属于不对的事情。（2011-10-04）",[827,2306,2307],{},"网友：想问下您如果用期权的方式买长期看好的公司，买了10年不会卖的这种。用快到期了卖掉再买入的这种方法是否可行？",[827,2309,2310,2312],{},[830,2311,832],{}," 你如果坚持用买call的办法去买你想买的公司（其实你只是想赌个大涨而已）最后的结果大概率是亏光光的。我自己是不买option的，不管是Call还是put。（2020-11-13）",[827,2314,2315,2316,2318],{},"卖put等于对投资回报的要求不像大家想的那么高，大概就是宁愿放弃一口吃个大胖子的机会，但更有机会有还过得去的回报，比如10%\u002F年，也不完全排除更高的收益。不过，卖put这个说法很危险。不是谁的put 都可以卖的。我主要只是卖",[830,2317,1289],{},"的put。(2022-11-12)",[827,2320,2321],{},"我卖put 的情况多是自己喜欢的公司的价钱在不高不低的区间，手里又正好有点闲钱。想着10年后这个价钱也不贵，闲着也是闲着，于是就卖个put，赚个年化十来个百分比的回报。特别便宜的时候最好别卖put。因为很可能赚了一点蝇头小利而失去大机会的。(2023-03-18)",[827,2323,2324],{},"我做股票的第一个交易就是卖put。一直不是很明白为什么大多数人搞不懂卖put 和卖covered call(备兑看涨期权)的道理。照说如果明白买股票就是买公司的道理后，应该很容易明白卖put无非就是让你更便宜地买你原来想买的股票的办法而已。（只要用到杠杆就改变了游戏的性质。）",[827,2326,955,2327,2330],{},[830,2328,2329],{},"腾讯","put进来之后卖call，半年和一年您大概会选择什么价位？",[827,2332,2333,2335],{},[830,2334,832],{}," 我一般不会想这个问题。简单讲比如一年20%以上的回报我就满意了。价格太低我一般就懒得卖call了，但有时候也可能会卖买入价的call，因为来回的premium(期权权利金)是不错的利润哈。一般至少能满足年化15%以上我才会动手，不然就只好闲着，哪怕只是拿着T-Bill(短期国债)也没办法。T-Bill毕竟是无风险的。(2024-10-26)",[827,2337,2338,2339,2342],{},"网友S：之前一直没搞明白Option是怎么回事，看了这么多留言感觉知道一点点了，谢谢段大哥。刚刚有点明白段大哥说",[830,2340,2341],{},"买option和卖option是赌博和开赌场的区别了，"," 因为option是有时间期限的，买的人也就是在堵市场的波动，这已经是价值投资者能力之外的事情了。还是听段大哥的话，像我们这种小股民，还是不碰option的好。",[827,2344,2345,2347,2348,2351],{},[830,2346,832],{}," 是的。",[830,2349,2350],{},"买option就是投机。"," 我一般不太敢讲option就是因为讲完后多数人都想成我的客户，来买我的option，然后过段时间就发现亏得比赚的多。怎么讲都没用，多数人都是想赚快钱的。（2010-05-17）",[827,2353,2354],{},"网友A：我尝试猜测一下段老师这两年在Yahoo赚不少的原因：",[827,2356,2357],{},"1．以2009年1月1日的收市价12.2元起算，今天收市价16.39，正股账面部分利润应为34%。",[827,2359,2360],{},"2．因为采用short call（put）工具（假设不孖展操作），可以满仓进行，根据2009年元旦至今的历史价格推算，历史波幅为62.8%\u002F年化，又假设段老师的option操作平均周转期为2个月，可得出权证收益为：",[827,2362,2363],{},"3．还得假设平均option是两个月10%的部位，即可推算出每两个月的期权金为6.5%，至今16个月，复利后果为利润65%。",[827,2365,2366],{},"4．即总利润正好是34%+65%=99%，太奇妙了，怎么结果正好是翻倍呢？",[827,2368,2369,2371],{},[830,2370,832],{}," 呵呵，差不多吧。最便宜的确实有10块以下的，但量很少。那时主要买ge了。平均买进价可能在15块多，但有很多是put进来的，加上已经过期的put，估计实际成本可能在13-14左右。不算是很好，但还过得去。",[827,2373,2374],{},"网友：Covered Put算起来好像赢了一点概率成本（引申波幅的某个部位），但是承受了应召女郎的待遇是否合算？（被人随Call随到）",[827,2376,2377,2379],{},[830,2378,832],{}," 这个想法有点怪。我认为卖put是价值投资的一个形式。比如现在假如你愿意16块多买yahoo，且觉得一年赚10%就很满意了，如果这时一个人出来说他愿意明年一月15块卖给你（如果价钱低于15的话），而且先付你1.5做定金（相当于他花10%买个保险），难道你不觉得这是个很好的生意吗？",[827,2381,2382],{},"（如果到时他卖给你的话，你的成本就是13.5，如果他到时不卖给你的话，你就赚了1.5\u002F13.5=11%，半年多一点的时间）。--这是yahoo现在的实例。",[827,2384,2385],{},"我投资的第一个交易就是卖了一个put，觉得很舒服。当然卖put的前提和买股票是一样的，你一定要很了解你的投资标的（和卖保险一样）。卖put的最大坏处是可能会失去大涨所带来的利润。最大的好处是卖put比直接买股票的风险小。巴菲特有时也用卖put的方式，比如他就卖了bni和s&p的puts。（2010-05-15）",[827,2387,2388],{},"网友A：您short的put一般是多长时间的，是一个月的吗？",[827,2390,2391,2393],{},[830,2392,832],{}," 可长可短，最短可到一个礼拜，最长的可到一两年。另外，short put的说法骨子里是不对的，因为卖put其实是long。不懂不要乱用术语哈。（2011-04-11）",[827,2395,2396],{},[830,2397,2398],{},"后记：",[827,2400,2401,2403],{},[830,2402,832],{}," 我不建议卖option！找个好公司不容易。不要为了那一点点premium失去拥有好公司的机会。（2019-11-18）",[827,2405,2406],{},"网友：您说以前会卖大量的跨年put，而卖put肯定要预留到期买入的资金，这样就相当于空了一部分仓。如果在这个期间这个股票涨很多就不划算了，这个是不是你现在不再卖大量put或者call的原因？",[827,2408,2409,2411],{},[830,2410,832],{}," 卖put最大的好处其实是，当有想买的公司却一时下不了决心买入时，卖put要容易决定一些。事实上，我的很多股票也是卖put后被put进来的。由于卖put时本来就打算买，所以更低一些的价钱自然更好。我不再卖大量put的最重要原因其实是我已经买了股票了，只有当有多余现金时才会考虑买入，等待或卖put这三个选项，其中等待最难。",[827,2413,2414],{},"我现在很少卖call，因为好公司难找，不想一个不小心把好公司卖掉了。不过有意思的是，卖covered call和卖put在数学上是等值的。（2020-11-26）",[827,2416,2417],{},"网友M：卖covered call和卖put数学上等值的意思是？没琢磨透",[827,2419,2420,2422],{},[830,2421,832],{}," 就是没区别的意思。（2020-11-26）",[827,2424,2425,2427],{},[830,2426,832],{}," 这两年我在yahoo上赚了不少钱，但yahoo的股票并没有大涨，你猜猜是什么原因？",[827,2429,2430],{},"当然，如果股票马上就大涨我就要少赚很多。手里资金大时就很想求稳，觉得一年能有十几%的回报就可以接受了。但是，在去年3月份这种机会出现时最好就不要卖put，那种时候一定要贪心，过于保守会浪费机会。",[827,2432,2433],{},"网友X：Yahoo赚不少的原因：卖Covered Call，卖Puts。",[827,2435,2436,2438],{},[830,2437,832],{}," 不过价低时不要轻易卖covered call。对yahoo毕竟还有一些心理没底的东西，卖点coverd calls起码可以降低风险。其实我最怕的就是yahoo突然神经兮兮地绝尘而去，现在这种状态我最高兴。呵呵，这种做法可能应该叫做价值投机？",[827,2440,2441],{},"网友J：买option属于投机，卖option属于投资。卖15的put，意思是可以以14的价格买入。卖16的call，即认为到了16，就可以卖了。",[827,2443,2444],{},"再试着说几句。正如你所说，不看好买put，看多买call（大道说了，这是投机）。大道是长期看多yhoo的，卖是买的对手盘，所以卖put应该好理解了吧。那既然看多，为何还卖call呢？原因是大道认为在短期内yhoo不会涨的太快（也就是yhoo被收购不会这么快），卖call可以摊低成本。举例来说，比如这次，假设大道有20000股yhoo。",[827,2446,2447],{},"他卖了10000股15的put和10000股16的call。最后yhoo收在14.95。这样大道等于赚了大概每股0.95+0.75=1.7。也就是成本摊薄了大概1.7（指的是10000股的成本）。时间才一个月，收益相当不错了。假设yhoo这次跌到了14，大道就以14的价格买入10000股，大道认为挺好。",[827,2449,2450],{},"假设这期间yhoo被25收购了，那大道的10000股yhoo就被call走了。投机者认为亏了，大道觉得也能接受，还有10000股yhoo。如果yhoo涨到15.99，那大道又多赚了大概0.75。股票还是20000股。",[827,2452,2453,2455],{},[830,2454,832],{}," 呵呵，解释得很好哈。我其实觉得目前这个董事会下，雅虎且有一阵折腾呢，来回put+call或许是个不错的策略，反正我也不怕多买些便宜的雅虎，也不怕被call走少赚一点。况且，被call走的情况下，还可以再卖个同一价位的put，往往又会被put进来，好玩吧？只是我雅虎比较多，做起来好辛苦。",[827,2457,2458],{},"大道：7\u002F31到期的345的call收5.3！买的人在赌博，卖covered call的人应该不算赌博，只是收个保费而已。（2026-07-30）",[827,2460,2461,2462,2465],{},"网友：大道您好，想问下您之前减持",[830,2463,2464],{},"伯克希尔","的原因。",[827,2467,2468],{},"大道：减持？我今天还买了一些呢。不过，我有时候买了会直接卖个covered call，把自己搞得很忙的样子。（2025-10-29）",[827,2470,2471],{},"网友：大道，在突发黑天鹅的时候买一些中远期call是不是还不错呢？",[827,2473,2474],{},"大道：简单讲，只要你有这个想法，你最后大概率会掉在这个坑里。（2026-08-13）",[827,2476,2477],{},"网友：同样的公司同样的股份同样的长期持有，A股明明比H股高30%，只用1%的交易成本就能多持有这个公司额外30%的股份数量，为何不做呢？而且，价格总是围绕价值上下波动的，很有可能哪天H股比A股又高30%，又能多30%的股份。从价值投资的角度看，为什么咱们要花多30%的钱去买同样数量的公司股份呢？",[827,2479,2480,2482],{},[830,2481,832],{}," 原因很简单，就是投机，另一种说法就是脑袋坏了。",[827,2484,2485],{},"网友：我也总是隔三差五的忍不住看看OPTIONS的情况，虽然知道做OPTIONS大体来讲是背离老巴的教诲，但总有那种冲动去做，钱少的时候，特别想快点致富，心态有问题啊..呵呵．几个月前终于忍不住，买了2012年1月到期的WFC在40块钱执行的CALL OPTION，不知道会出现什么结果……",[827,2487,2488,2490],{},[830,2489,832],{}," 呵呵，曾经有人（不止一次）对我说过：价值投资看起来有道理，但我需要赚些快钱，好像巴菲特和本人都不喜欢快钱一样。（2010-08-12）",[827,2492,2493],{},"以下内容不要轻易看，确实不容易懂，尤其是不要以为自己懂了就去做，尤其尤其不要用option去做投机！",[827,2495,2496],{},"金融衍生品有很多种，option是其中的一种。可以基于各种目的使用金融衍生品。比如：保险、对冲、投机、投资etc……",[827,2498,2499,2500,2503],{},"巴菲特卖的S&P的put option实际上就是一种（长线）投资，由于他用的是",[866,2501,212],{"href":2502},"\u002Fxinyu","担保，而且只有到期日才可以被执行，我不认为他是在用Margin。",[827,2505,2506,2508],{},[830,2507,832],{}," option是双面刃，既可以是投资的辅助工具，也可以是投机工具。",[827,2510,2511],{},"我见过不少号称有“照”的人，实际上并不真明白option的所以然。",[827,2513,2514,2515,2518],{},"10年前一个香港的朋友告诉我有put这个东西，从那时开始做投资到今天，没看过任何option的书，也没听说过你说的这个人。我认为其实option是个很好的工具，因为这个市场上有太多的源源不断的投机的钱，卖option大概可以算最好的赚投机或对冲的钱的好办法。我自己从来就没有一个所谓的option策略，都是跟着",[866,2516,110],{"href":2517},"\u002Fjibenmian","走的。",[827,2520,2521],{},"不过，作为辅助工具，卖option用好了还是蛮有效地，我管的钱在利用option上产生的利润好像可以赶上很多赚钱的上市公司了。",[827,2523,2524],{},"我见过的大多数人其实都把option复杂化了，其实option和价值投资的概念一样，不了解的公司的option是绝对不应该碰的。",[827,2526,2527],{},"只要有想用option赚快钱的想法，最后的结果一般都会很糟。",[827,2529,2530],{},"顺便说下，理解不了价值投资的人更难理解option，做option的技巧越高，最后吃的亏会越大。（2011-12-18）",[827,2532,2533,2534,2536],{},"网友：option（期权）可以作为",[866,2535,58],{"href":868},"的辅助工具？",[827,2538,2539,2541],{},[830,2540,832],{}," 是啊，巴菲特也用啊。不过，巴菲特规模太大，只能卖点标普的put。我自己也觉得越来越难用了，规模大了以后市场没容量，卖不出好价钱就没意思了。（2011-12-18）",[827,2543,2544,2546,2547,2549],{},[830,2545,832],{}," 不明白最好就别碰option。使用option时最重要的就是不要为option而option，只有对",[866,2548,110],{"href":2517},"非常明白时才有可能有时用一下。还有就是不要用margin做option。（2011-10-04）",[827,2551,2552],{},"网友：大道，本人愚笨，目前的投资策略是拒绝碰个股，把所有年终奖all in 字节期权（买股票就是买公司，我相信他是优质的公司），其他的除留下日常花销以外，定投标普500&买点黄金，我这算是懂了吗？",[827,2554,2555],{},"大道：买期权？你会懂的！（2025-11-17）",[827,2557,2558],{},"网友：个人愚见，我觉得您卖covered call本质上也是一种止盈手段。",[827,2560,2561],{},"大道：哈，确实是愚见。（2025-12-04）",[827,2563,2564],{},"网友S：我和art讨论的是那个B-S公式波幅标准差σ如何确定的问题。",[827,2566,2567,2569],{},[830,2568,881],{}," ：哦。我不知道什么是B-S公式，但我可能会bs任何公式的。（2010-08-15）",[822,2571,2573],{"id":2572},"第三节-套利无风险赚点小钱","第三节 套利：无风险赚点小钱",[827,2575,2576],{},"网友：我想问一个问题，你对套利是怎么看的？",[827,2578,2579,2581],{},[830,2580,832],{}," 我理解套利的意思一般而言就是无风险地赚点“小钱”，做空可是无限风险的事啊。先把基本定义搞清楚，不然要出大问题的。（2011-01-18）",[827,2583,2584],{},"网友：我想问一下“无风险套利”大概是怎么一回事，了解一下？",[827,2586,2587,2589],{},[830,2588,881],{}," ：存银行就是典型的“无风险套利”，很多“无风险套利”其实是有风险的，只是大家不容易看到而已。举个例子，巴菲特100块收购了BNI，但要6个月以后成交，现在bni市价99块。这时如果你99买入，6个月以后就能卖100块。如果你的资金成本低且规模大的话，就可以从中赚一笔。（2010-05-04）",[827,2591,2592],{},"网友：请问段总：暂时没有好的机会，怎么解决空闲资金呢？",[827,2594,2595,2597],{},[830,2596,881],{}," ：可以做些“无风险套利”，比如放银行了拿利息。（2010-09-20）",[827,2599,2600,2602,2603,2606],{},[830,2601,832],{}," 你要没有现金在就等于在用margin，等于用你的港股在抵押。不是很推荐你卖puts。我卖puts（有时也卖些covered calls）的原因主要是资金量有点大，我把这个当套利。由于我能评估自己的风险，也很清楚自己在干什么，一年10-15%的回报还是可以接受的，",[830,2604,2605],{},"尤其是没有发现非常理想的目标时"," 。（2010-05-16）",[827,2608,2609],{},"网友：能请教一下对套利有过研究跟经历吗？例如最近几个中概股被揪出财务造假，导致很多中概股股价低迷，有中概股CEO酝酿私有化退市．我觉得是个套利的好机会呢？我经验有限，能不能讲讲您套利的体会？",[827,2611,2612,2614],{},[830,2613,881],{}," ：前面刚讲过，我个人认为“套利”应该指的是无风险（或风险极低）的行为。你现在想做的事实际上是投资或投机行为。如果你真正了解你想干什么，那一般可以叫投资行为。但看起来你现在想干的事很像投机行为，因为有很多假设和想象的东西在里面。（2011-01-19）",[827,2616,2617],{},"网友：我想之所以大家对套利这么感兴趣，主要是因为套利是巴菲特的重要短期投资之一（有风险，无风险的他都做）。巴菲特的老师套利30年，平均年回报率大约20%，巴菲特套利了大约50年，尤其是职业生涯早期进行了大量的套利活动，据他自己讲回报率远远高于20%。",[827,2619,2620],{},"近十几年来巴菲特套利活动不多，可能与他资金量变大了，进行大资金套利目标有限，而且资金大进出活动不方便有关．而且套利需要密切关注市场，比较费精力。",[827,2622,2623],{},"我记得他在股东信中专门讲过套利，要点是比较套利成功的收益和套利失败的损失，外加上资金被绑住的时间和更好的事情发生的可能性等，综合分析，计算潜在收益（损失），在综合概率，损益，时间之后，是相当理想的正回报的时候，就可以出手，不指望每一笔都赚钱，但只要一笔一笔不停的这样玩下去，就像赌场里的庄家一样，长期来看就赚钱了。",[827,2625,2626],{},"巴菲特几年前接受提问，问现在的他，如果手里只有100万会怎么投资，他的回答是投资小公司和套利。",[827,2628,2629],{},"不过套利讲起来很容易，做起来就需要功力了，世界上专门从事套利的投资者有很多，但成为套利大师的也没听说有多少个……",[827,2631,2632,2634],{},[830,2633,832],{}," 没太认真看过老巴的这些东西，也不知道他说的套利居然也分为有风险和无风险两种，如果这么说的话，套利就是短期投资（投机）行为了。",[827,2636,2637],{},"我不知道我做option算不算这种所谓的“套利”，但我投资的利润在普通年景里有很大一部分就是来自于options（卖covered calls和puts）。",[827,2639,2640],{},"option的交易中绝大部分初学者都是想买option的，因为他们都想赚快钱，当然结果都是被人把钱很快地赚走了。（2011-01-21）",[827,2642,2643],{},"网友：关于可转债的，假如A公司发行可转债，可转债票面利率远低于一年期存款利率，初始转股价格比当时股价高10%多点，我是这么考虑这个问题的，我觉得如果对该公司有信心应该买股票，每年股息远高于可转债利率，买入股价又比可转债转股便宜，如果没信心就连可转债也不要碰。",[827,2645,2646,2648],{},[830,2647,832],{}," 可转债利于保本，也许帮人理财的机构喜欢？（2014-02-19）",[822,2650,2652],{"id":2651},"第四节-量化交易","第四节 量化交易",[827,2654,2655],{},"网友：没搞懂量化的人是在干嘛？",[827,2657,2658,2660],{},[830,2659,832],{}," 其实就是用电脑看图看线，未来大家都用AI啥的。",[827,2662,2663],{},"大道：量化交易是零和游戏，赚的是韭菜的钱，未来可能还会出现ai更厉害的赚ai不那么厉害的量化交易的钱的情况。投资赚的是企业赚的钱。虽然看起来都是股票交易，但内涵确实不一样。量化交易是个生意，就像澳门赌场一样，你只是在赌场工作而已？（2026-08-02）",[827,2665,2666],{},"网友：量化是不是也是好朋友？",[827,2668,2669],{},"大道：量化是韭菜们的克星，对我来说就是路人。（2026-07-24）",[827,2671,2672],{},"网友：有人说过，做量化的人多了，模型会失效。",[827,2674,2675,2677,2678,2680],{},[830,2676,832],{}," 这个绝对是对的。量化“投资”其实是",[866,2679,125],{"href":872},"，是赚市场的钱，是零和游戏。假设最后市场上都是量化“投资”，那他们赚谁的钱？当然，量化们其实也不用担心，总是会有很多“韭菜”前赴后继的。",[827,2682,2683,2684,2686,2687,2689,2690,2692],{},"网友：请问大道，现在量化交易很厉害，就像幻方那样。我是做",[866,2685,58],{"href":868},"的，研究",[866,2688,110],{"href":2517},"厉害，身边有会写代码的朋友资源，但我自己没有编程基础。请问大道是否建议我这种人从",[866,2691,58],{"href":868},"转成做python量化交易？为什么？",[827,2694,2695,2696,2698,2699,2701],{},"大道：你如果做“",[866,2697,58],{"href":868},"”很赚钱的话，你为什么想转？如果你连做“",[866,2700,58],{"href":868},"”都不赚钱的话，你能干的过人家幻方？你知道人家ai的水平吗？你知道人家早年屯了多少nvda的芯片吗？ 假装懂投资是真的很危险的。（2025-01-22）",[827,2703,2704,2705,2707],{},"网友：今天公司来了一个讲量化的老师，怎么都觉得",[866,2706,58],{"href":868},"最美好。",[827,2709,2710],{},"大道：这个总结很好。（2026-01-19）",[827,2712,2713,2714,2716],{},"网友：你好，段总。DeepSeek的创始人梁文峰，听说是做量化交易的。他说过，量化交易可以赚到今天技术层面的钱，未来也会赚到基本层面的钱。如何看待此问题，",[866,2715,58],{"href":868},"在量化面前还有优势吗？",[827,2718,2719],{},"大道：我不那么了解量化交易，感觉上其实就是高级的看图看线，但他们是用ai看也许加一点点人工干预。量化交易大概率是个猎人和猎物的零和游戏，投资则像农夫种田，两者其实互不干扰。量化交易赚的是韭菜的钱，投资赚的是企业成长的钱。我对量化交易持中性看法，毕竟那也是合法生意。（2026-01-30）",[827,2721,2722],{},"网友：（网友引用西蒙斯“总有办法给价格建模”的说法）",[827,2724,2725],{},"大道：我觉得真正的量化大师很可能就是梁文峰的量化基金，西蒙斯那个似乎到死都不敢拿出来见人？领先的ai看图看线能赚到钱理论上是很有可能的，但这是个零和游戏，亏钱的那些一般叫做“韭菜”。（2026-04-12）",[827,2727,2728],{},"网友：只根据数据和计算就投资，赚钱的人确实有，就是数学家James Simons，他是一个很厉害的几何学家，和陈省身起名，他们的很玄很玄的几何理论是很玄很玄的弦理论的基础，智力应该和我们凡人处在完全不同的位置上。他赚钱的基金Medellion，主要交易利率、外汇有关的衍生品，历史表现比索罗斯还强。",[827,2730,2731],{},"但他也有两个投资于股票市场的基金，Nova Fund和Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund，都跑输标普……？连这么聪明的人都没办法在股票市场上找出纯数据的策略，我们普通人更应该专心沿着巴菲特的朴素路线找投资机会了。",[827,2733,2734,2736],{},[830,2735,832],{}," 你知道有多少搞数学的人在搞投资吗？也许同样多猩猩去做同样的事情，从中也能找出一个能够在某段时期打败索罗斯的。我想我在过去10年的投资业绩（比例）肯定超过索罗斯，你觉得这个说明了以下的哪个？",[827,2738,2739],{},"1．计量经济毕业的学生战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2741,2742],{},"2．人大经济系毕业的烟酒生战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2744,2745],{},"3．浙大信电系毕业的学生战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2747,2748],{},"4．江西人战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2750,2751],{},"5．姓段的战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2753,2754],{},"6．高尔夫让他战胜了索罗斯；",[827,2756,2757],{},"7．其实他没战胜索罗斯；......",[827,2759,2760],{},"我估计能一直说下去，然后需要的人都可以找到自己喜欢的那条。（2013-04-02）",[827,2762,2763],{},"网友J：西蒙斯和Edward Thorp估计是极其少数可以在20-30年的交易历史里从事量化投资稳定盈利的（从这个角度，他们激励着一些人去寻找圣杯）。但是相比价值投资来说，估计难了很多，不然，华尔街那么多从事量化投资的基金早就扬名立万了，他们都是顶尖学府毕业的高材生。",[827,2765,2766],{},"2008年，美国、加拿大、欧洲等倒了很多的量化基金，巴菲特却在那个时刻拥有充足资金，公开发表了买入的言论。量化交易的魅力可能是看起来“短平快”+“融资便利”，我曾经花了不少时间去研究，也知道有人花了10年光阴去研究这个，结果白忙一场，如果当初他静心走价值投资的路，可能结果会好很多。段总关于您的留言的回复让我想了好一会。",[827,2768,2769],{},"“条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的。”",[827,2771,2772,2774],{},[830,2773,832],{}," 其实这句话的意思和丘吉尔那句话差不多。可惜很多人都是非要试过别的路才会醒悟过来的，当然，大部分人会一直寻找捷径的。",[827,2776,2777,2778,2258,2781],{},"你能记住这句话说明你有悟性，有悟性不去悟就可惜了。其实那句话的意思是投资只有价值投资一条路。",[830,2779,2780],{},"量化投资就像赌场里的看图看线，有时候真准啊，就是没办法事先知道到底哪次会是准的。我烟酒生时学的是计量经济学，如果量化投资真管用的话，那现在世界上最有钱的一定都是我以前的那些老师和同学们或其他数学家们",[830,2782,2783],{},"啥时候能轮到那些数学其实不那么好的人们？",[827,2785,2786,2789],{},[830,2787,2788],{},"这个悖论真得那么难懂吗？"," （2013-04-03）",[827,2791,2792],{},"网友：由人机围棋大站突然想到如果由AlphaGo来做投资决策会出现什么样的结果呢？大到国家经济决策、金融政策，小到公司估值。",[827,2794,2795],{},"就以苹果公司为例，现在市值5000多亿，我们假设AlphaGo通过各种大数据精密运算，得出苹果合理价值最大概率为10000亿，然后据此投资，苹果市值迅速达到10000亿，这样的话作为个人投资者，是否很难会有价值投资的机会或者说市场投资将平均化？世界经济是否将运行的更加平稳？",[827,2797,2798,2800],{},[830,2799,832],{}," 说明你确实是相信看图看线的，不过决定电脑会看得更好些。按你的逻辑，以后开公司的也是电脑，投钱的也是，你也就没啥好操心的了，也许唯一需要操心的就是要融资买台电脑，而有钱的电脑还不肯给你。（2016-03-21）",[822,2802,2804],{"id":2803},"第五节-卖put的实务与限制","第五节 卖put的实务与限制",[827,2806,2807],{},"网友：阿段，我过去两年看了你几乎所有写的东西，从今年3月份开始实操，取得了不错的收益，到现在40%左右。特别是4月大幅下跌的时候，您直接晒操作，更加坚定了我的投资信心。我现在有个实操的问题：因为投资准则就是不做空，不加杠杆，不做不懂的东西。我也没有加杠杆，按照我的总资产来卖的put。现在很多股票大幅上涨，期权也几乎跌到了没有价值。",[827,2809,2810],{},"我现在想再卖一些put，是否要先把这些期权平仓呢？虽然被行权的几率不高，但是万一遇到市场大幅下跌就风险比较大，不想要富两次。如果平仓又感觉不划算，就几毛钱的价格，还要交手续费。您的操作应该是不会平仓，等到到期。我是否可以做一些变通？",[827,2812,2813],{},"大道：你的钱你想做啥都是可以的。（2025-10-28）",[827,2815,2816],{},"网友：大道，我是小散户一名，大概一年前关注到你。然后发现你提到那些标，就里面的MRNA便宜，买得起。又发现期权费挺高的，目前手握600股成本29.5，同时双向卖一个月的30call和23put，现有备用资金大概还能接1000股。如果MRNA股价稳定在23-29区间，年化率会达到40%以上，不知我这样操作会不会太冒险？",[827,2818,2819,2820,2822],{},"大道：既然是",[866,2821,125],{"href":872},"哪有太冒险这个说法？（2025-11-05）",[827,2824,2825],{},"网友：但是请问大道，您有说过好公司遇见了就一直拿着就行，我一直理解的就是说遇见了好的公司，在合适的价格买到手了之后就一直拿着不动就好。那像您这样的操作是因为觉得日后大概率会有更合适的价格买入更多的股票吗",[827,2827,2828],{},"大道：等10年就知道了。一直拿着确实是很好的办法，但很无聊啊。我这样一个月4%+保费你不满意吗？别把自己搞得很懂的样子，仔细想想嘛。（2026-08-06）",[827,2830,2831],{},"网友：请问现在美股有哪些股票可以sellput?",[827,2833,2834],{},"大道：这个是由做市商决定。但凡有成交量的股票，做市商有钱可赚，他们就会开盘口，跟开赌场差不多的意思。不过，做市商只是赚差价，broker赚手续费，不会像赌场那样赚概率钱。（2026-08-21）",[827,2836,2837],{},"大道：我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。（2026-07-23）",[827,2839,2840],{},"网友：在您的投资生涯中，大部分孔位都是以“买保险”（卖put）的视角进入的吗？还是说泡泡玛特是一个偏特别的孔位？",[827,2842,2843],{},"大道：网易，茅台，神华，Uhal买入时都没卖过put的。其实卖put对我来说最大的好处是下单容易，不然直接买股票是有金额限制的，我没那么多时间耗在上面。就苹果而言，我是主动卖call的，call走就算了。但苹果股价还不高的时候我也会卖put或者“买股+卖covered call”，这个办法会牺牲上涨空间，但更容易达到预期收益。比如我在nvda上过去两年是少赚了不少钱的，但我投入的金额年化获利大概有接近30%，比我其他的投资都要高。（2026-08-06）",[827,2845,2846],{},"网友：啥公司长期年化能有50%，市场给看好的公司期权套利机会为啥不做呢，看看伯克希尔的期权卖方，再看看泡泡玛特，完全不能比",[827,2848,2849],{},"大道：我也有很多brkb，但不太用Option，因为premium太低了。（2026-08-06）",[827,2851,2852],{},"网友：（GPT长文分析）7月13日美光收盘约937美元，他卖出8月14日到期、行权价935美元的Put共999张，收权利金约976万美元，盈亏平衡点约837美元。当时美光的隐含波动率高达90%左右，他赚的其实是恐慌溢价和时间价值，而不是赌方向。",[827,2854,2855],{},"大道：ai太能说了！我的想法其实很简单，存储一时半会缓不了，卖点put赚点钱买泡泡玛特哈。其实我卖MU的put已经有一年多了，第一次卖的时候还在300多。有过一次被put进来的经历，我还卖了一个call，今天也被call走了。那一单来回拉抽屉赚了120+\u002F股。（2026-08-15）",[827,2857,2858],{},"大道：用837.26的t-bill卖的这个put，收了97.74. 获利 11.67%\u002F32天，加上利息有12%了。（2026-08-15）",[827,2860,2861],{},"大道：美光科技\n又到期了。\n一个月超过10%的premium，保险公司的生意不错哈。（2026-08-15）",[827,2863,2864],{},"网友：你完全理解错了啊，买入正股+卖call=卖put，大道是之前put卖的太多了超上限不能卖了，所以就买入正股+卖call，相当于以162.5的价格卖了一个put啊",[827,2866,2867],{},"大道：哈，居然有个真懂的！是的，港交所对卖put总量有上限，所以有时候会用 买入正股+卖covered call的办法（数学上是一样的）。我卖的call都是股票买入的时候直接就卖了call了，比如161买入的就直接卖了一个月162.5的call，当时好像能收3-4个点（目前8\u002F28到期的160的put可以收6.85，162.5的call可以收7.13，都超过4个点了），没call走就算买入成功了，call走了就算保险公司赚钱了。其实被call走和put过期了的价值是一样的。（2026-08-06）",[827,2869,2870],{},"大道：跟绝大多数人不一样的是，我在美股或者任何股市的第一个交易就是卖了一个put。我记得是卖了Jupiter的put，结果还亏钱了，因为没看懂这家公司。（2026-08-14）",[827,2872,2873],{},"大道：是的，必须是愿意在这个价格买入才可以去卖put。（2026-07-24）",[827,2875,2876,2878],{},[830,2877,832],{}," 卖put的前提是你总是要准备好现金在那儿，不然就等于在用margin。(2010-05-20)",[827,2880,2881,2883],{},[830,2882,832],{}," 我认为其实都可以。如果你想多持有的话，就不着急卖covered calls。现在卖calls就放弃了上涨的空间，但更安全些，股票不涨你也有钱赚。",[827,2885,2886,2889],{},[830,2887,2888],{},"卖option的前提和价值投资一样，你一定要对投资标的足够了解并打算长期持有（或者可以考虑卖）。在打算长期持有的前提下做一些短期套利可以让投资没那么无聊"," 。对你认为上涨空间大的股票，最好还是不要卖call的好，或者只卖一点点（为了好玩）。（2010-08-12）",[827,2891,2892],{},"网友：如果有一家真正懂的公司，option是能增厚不少利润的。所以确定性最重要。",[827,2894,2895,2897,2898,2900],{},[830,2896,832],{}," 能不能增厚利润不是很确定，但下手难度减少了不少，内心没那么折腾，受市场影响会降低一些。(2023-09-29)卖put看着好玩，但背后的逻辑还是严密的。首先，从十年的角度看，170美元的",[830,2899,1289],{},"其实不贵(功夫全在这里)，然后就好玩了。(2022-01-08)",[827,2902,2903,2904,2906],{},"原来已经计划狠狠买些拼多多和",[830,2905,2329],{},"的，但觉得市场很悲观，应该会低迷一段时间，我可以靠多卖点put(看跌期权)来降低买入的成本，结果…我总是说，任何的考虑市场都很可能是错的，现在就是个具体的例子。",[827,2908,2909,2910,2912,2915],{},"我卖option没有任何秘密，就是未来",[866,2911,88],{"href":1476},[866,2913,97],{"href":2914},"\u002Fzhexian","的一个做法而已。（2010-08-14）",[827,2917,2918,2920,2921,2923],{},[830,2919,832],{}," 心态的意思是，卖option其实不会有短期赚大钱的机会，但是实实在在产生净",[866,2922,88],{"href":1476},"的办法，在懂的基本面的前提下长期而言是有机会获得高于平均市场回报的回报的。买option则是投机，常做铁亏。（2011-07-16）",[827,2925,2926,2928,2929,2931],{},[830,2927,832],{}," 老巴的“衍生品投机”实际上就是卖了个指数的长期的put，还不用交押金的。我认为那是投资，相对于卖保险。买put的人才是投机，也可以说是买保险。老巴的这个“亏损”是不会影响到",[866,2930,88],{"href":1476},"的。",[827,2933,2934],{},"我没看老巴具体卖的是什么put。大致看到过报道，说是用信誉卖的是s&p500的15到20年的put，按当时大概是1300点左右的价格卖的，收了几十亿美金的现金（可能后来掉下来后又做了不少，我猜）。代价是如果15或20以后如果掉到1300点（后来补得可能更低）以下，老巴要付钱，如果那时s&p500掉到0的话，老巴要赔300多个亿。",[827,2936,2937],{},"第一，很难想象s&p500到那个时候还会在这个价钱，第二，就算在这个价钱（不涨不跌）老巴也已经赚了几十个亿了，第三，老巴白拿着几十个亿用20年，就算8%一年的复合增长，老巴也要赚个4-5倍了。但是，虽然老巴不用给现金，但可能需要按mark to the market去记账，所以每个季度都会有“金融衍生品”的盈亏显示，让那些老想等着看老巴笑话的人乱激动一把。",[827,2939,2940],{},"老巴卖的这些put买家只能在到期的时候行使，这是一个非常大的区别，和平时大家在市场上卖的普通不一样。所以说老巴这几十个亿白用20年不是没有理由的。老巴这个deal实际上就是长期不看坏美国。如果谁给我这么个deal，我也愿意啊。和借margin是完全两码事。",[827,2942,2943],{},"margin由于抵押的是账上的其他股票，任何是个市场短期的大波动就可能将你的钱wipe out掉，但老巴的这个put是不受市场波动影响的，有兴趣想了解的可以去看老巴的年报哈，没看的就别乱讲了。（2011-11-09）",[827,2945,2946],{},"网友：大道对于看涨期权特别是长期看涨期权这个工具怎么看？因为有时间限制，似乎是speculation，但长期期权在低价买入赔率是很高的。想听听大道的看法。",[827,2948,2949,2951],{},[830,2950,832],{}," 统计上来看，买期权的大概率是赔的。（2019-03-21）",[827,2953,2954,2956,2957,912],{},[830,2955,832],{}," 现在的段永平认为即使是卖option也应该是不对的，因为好不容易找到的好公司很可能会因为卖option把机会错失了。最简单的办法其实就是找到好公司，在合适的价钱买下拿着。（",[830,2958,2211],{},[827,2960,955,2961,2963],{},[830,2962,975],{},"谈期权时说如果你想要买卖股票，就应该直接买卖股票..",[827,2965,2966,941,2968,2970,2971,2973,2974,2976,2977,2979,2980,2982],{},[830,2967,832],{},[830,2969,975],{},"是对的！但这不意味着我的办法对我不对。卖put可能会少赚钱，但至少买入成本是低一些的。反正我每天卖1000个",[830,2972,2329],{},"put会继续，比直接买股票要容易下手很多。顺便说下，我的大部分",[830,2975,1289],{},"就是通过卖put 买回来的，虽然没",[830,2978,975],{},"买得多，但比重可比",[830,2981,975],{},"要高哈。",[827,2984,2985],{},"其实我的想法很简单，就是我管的钱一定要战胜通胀，不然我就亏钱了。所以，首先要找自己看得懂的好公司。好公司一般都有点贵，直接买老是觉得有点下不了手，但卖个put，就算最后买不到股票，年化十几个百分点的收入也还是可以的嘛。这里并没有一个所谓的卖option的策略，最重要的还是也只能是找到好公司。",[827,2987,2988],{},"我并不追求所谓的最好的投资策略，我也不可能每天去办公室上班(我确实有个办公室，到目前为止只去看过一次)。不客气滴说，如果我全天候做投资，我的回报肯定可以高一些，但我为什么要这么做？我目前这个办法其实还是蛮有效的，一个人可以管人家两三百号人管的钱，而且好像过去20年表现都还不错哈(但并不总是能赢标普500)。",[827,2990,2991,2992,2994,2995,2997,2998,3000,3001,3003,3004,3006],{},"绝大部分时间里我都是满仓或者实质性满仓的，最近有点闲钱，主要是有段时间的闲钱买了",[830,2993,1289],{},"同时卖了call，前段时间被call走了一部分。目前价位下，买",[830,2996,1289],{},"真有点下不去手，但卖",[830,2999,2329],{},"的 put似乎心里还是踏实的。",[830,3002,1289],{},"以前回调过很多次啊。也许最近大盘涨得有点邪乎，感觉怎么懂",[830,3005,1289],{},"的人突然就多了好多呢？",[827,3008,3009],{},"网友B：段总只卖出期权，并且限定在他明白的公司。我的理解段总实际是在利用期权做价值投资。因为我没有从事过期权买卖，所以非常可能理解有误。",[827,3011,3012],{},"举例说明。比如现在巨人网络的股价现在$7。有个机构以$7买入了巨人网络的股票，但又希望有一种方法来对冲股票价格下跌的风险。此时，段总就卖出了一年期行权价格为$6的期权。这个公司认为段总的期权适合他们的要求，就会付出权利金，买入段总卖出的期权。因为，在一年后，一旦巨人网络的股价下跌到$6以下，他们可以按$6的价格把股票卖给段总。这样他们就锁定了风险。",[827,3014,3015],{},"而段总得到该公司的了权利金，责任是在一年到期时，如果股票价格到$6以下，该公司如果卖出他们的股票，段总必须以$6价格接下他们的股票。",[827,3017,3018],{},"但实际上，段总认为巨人网络在$6以下是很好的价值投资范围，是段总乐于买入的价格范围。这样，如果巨人网络的价格涨了，或高于$6，段总就得了该公司的权利金。如果股价到$6以下，就买入做了价值投资。",[827,3020,3021],{},"段总卖出期权的前提是，他只限于他愿意做价值投资的公司。所以他说：“简单讲，我就是在卖保险，但我只保我明白的公司”。",[827,3023,3024,3026],{},[830,3025,832],{}," 你说的是puts，大致意思是对的。（2011-02-05）",[827,3028,3029,3031],{},[830,3030,832],{}," 我极少买回我卖出去的任何options（再次强调一下，我只对很特别的目标卖covered calls和covered puts，顺便解释一下，covered puts的意思是如果被put进来有足够的现金接）。道理上来讲，你卖call的时候是打算被call走的，不然就是投机了。",[827,3033,3034],{},"不过，我16或以下的call很少（有也都是被put进来后卖的），主要都是17.5或以上的，很早就卖了。我的绝大部分雅虎的option都会在1月21日到期。最近我也没再卖call了，尽管前段时间有很多已经expire掉了，但如果价格再好点说不定我还会继续卖的。",[827,3036,3037],{},"我不知道这次的收购是不是真的，但我知道就算这次没有，将来还会有的，因为雅虎亚洲资产实实在在在那里摆着，总是会有人有兴趣的，当然最有兴趣的应该是亚洲资产本身。",[827,3039,3040],{},"今天卖了不少BRK的put，看上去这个价格不贵了，希望买进来拿着，应该比S&P500合算。（2025-08-05）",[827,3042,3043],{},"网友：段哥刚才看你的“刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。”没看明白，能进一步说明一下吗？",[827,3045,3046],{},"大道：Premium 下降了很多， 投机的人少了。（2026-08-27）",[827,3048,3049],{},"网友：舍不得卖给你正股？",[827,3051,3052],{},"大道：不是舍不得卖正股给我。这个有点诡异的，他们只要收盘前买入股票，就可以160自动卖给我的。美股好像可以在收盘后1个小时内打电话给broker去放弃行权。我能想到的理由就是：拿着put的人忘了买股票了，但盘后又害怕下个礼拜一开盘就涨了，所以打电话去放弃了。想不出其他原因。港股什么规矩我还没了解过。（2026-08-31）",[827,3054,3055],{},"网友：那买PUT的人是纯投机心态吗？",[827,3057,3058],{},"大道：买put的人有时候不知道想干嘛？ 160put居然有部分过期了，买put的居然没put给我，一块多钱差价都不要了吗？（2026-08-29）",[827,3060,3055],{},[827,3062,3063],{},"大道：买option多是投机，就是想小钱博大钱，快速赚钱，大概率是会亏的，但也有时候会突然爆发一下，很刺激。但赚的钱大概率最后都会亏在同样的地方的。（2026-08-30）",[827,3065,3066],{},"网友：谁规定玩价值投资的不能投机了",[827,3068,3069],{},"大道：卖covered的option不是投机。不懂公司是不能卖的。（2026-08-30）",[827,3071,3072],{},"网友：段老师您好，卖put 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