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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":458,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":41,"date":9,"description":460,"editor":2183,"extension":2184,"meta":2185,"navigation":2186,"order":461,"path":2187,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2188,"seoDescription":460,"seoTitle":2189,"slug":459,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":835,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2190,"sourceStatus":2191,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2192,"stem":2193,"summary":460,"tags":2194,"type":435,"updatedAt":2197,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":2198,"_collection":2199},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-12.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2177},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,844,847,850,853,859,862,867,872,877,880,885,888,893,896,905,908,917,920,925,928,933,936,941,944,949,952,957,960,965,970,973,976,981,984,989,992,997,1002,1005,1008,1011,1016,1019,1022,1028,1034,1037,1042,1045,1050,1055,1058,1063,1066,1072,1075,1080,1085,1088,1093,1096,1101,1104,1109,1112,1117,1120,1125,1134,1137,1140,1146,1149,1154,1160,1167,1170,1175,1178,1181,1187,1190,1195,1198,1207,1210,1215,1221,1224,1229,1232,1237,1240,1245,1248,1253,1256,1261,1266,1271,1277,1280,1285,1295,1300,1303,1306,1309,1314,1317,1320,1323,1326,1329,1334,1337,1342,1345,1348,1351,1354,1357,1360,1363,1372,1375,1380,1383,1386,1389,1392,1397,1400,1406,1411,1418,1421,1424,1427,1434,1437,1440,1450,1456,1459,1468,1471,1476,1479,1484,1487,1490,1495,1498,1501,1504,1507,1510,1513,1518,1521,1529,1540,1545,1552,1557,1563,1583,1586,1591,1598,1604,1615,1622,1625,1633,1642,1645,1648,1651,1654,1659,1663,1670,1673,1678,1681,1686,1695,1701,1704,1710,1713,1718,1721,1726,1729,1732,1735,1740,1743,1752,1755,1760,1763,1768,1773,1778,1783,1789,1792,1797,1800,1805,1808,1813,1822,1825,1828,1833,1836,1844,1849,1852,1855,1861,1866,1870,1877,1880,1885,1891,1894,1899,1902,1907,1910,1915,1918,1923,1926,1931,1934,1939,1942,1947,1950,1955,1960,1965,1974,1977,1982,1985,1990,1993,1998,2005,2010,2013,2018,2021,2024,2027,2032,2037,2040,2043,2046,2049,2054,2057,2060,2065,2068,2071,2074,2079,2086,2091,2094,2097,2102,2107,2110,2115,2118,2123,2126,2131,2134,2139,2142,2147,2150,2153,2156,2161,2164,2169,2172],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-平常心理性与投资经验","第一节 平常心、理性与投资经验",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：这是我前几天在博客上写的2010年的投资总结：请段总帮忙指点一下。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平"," ：投资是一个谋事在人成事在天的事情，当你有一个类似于“年复合增长率20%”或whatever的目标时，你可能就要开始犯错误了。个人认为投资的决策过程比短期结果重要。只要你过程出错少，最后的结果应该就会很好。比来比去很容易失去平常心，从而导致犯错误。设定投资目标其实就是比来比去的一个表现。（2010-01-14）",[827,838,839,840,843],{},"我觉得设定投资目标是件蛮愚蠢的事情。我的意思是：当",[833,841,842],{},"你有了每年增长多少百分比的目标之后，你早晚会做出很愚蠢的事情","。",[827,845,846],{},"一旦心里有了要求回报率，动作就可能变形，因为人们是有可能为了达到这个要求回报率去铤而走险的。还是那句老话：对投资而言过程正确最重要，心里有个要求回报率大概率是会降低你的回报率的。也许可以有个“可接受回报率”，就是低于这个可接受回报率的投资就不碰了。我觉得这个可接受回报率的底线其实就是国债利率。",[827,848,849],{},"网友：1、巴菲特取得20%收益率50年，这很牛，但投资界牛人还有可能做到（比如段总）。",[827,851,852],{},"2、巴菲特源源不断取得低息、或无息资金那才牛，这可能是区域性投资家与洛克菲勒式大资本家区别。不知道看法对不对？",[827,854,855,858],{},[833,856,857],{},"段永平："," 我肯定做不到巴菲特的回报率，因为我开始的太晚而且没那么用功，最重要的是我不认为我真的想做到。我做投资就是一业余爱好，好玩而已。（2010-03-01）",[827,860,861],{},"网友：您前面的文章说投资最重要的是投你懂的企业，我觉得您最重要的还有一点是对安全边际的严格把握，如果没有这一点您就不会在网易和GE上赚这么多了，但是这样的机会很少的，我很想知道如果没有这样大机会下的安全边际，您是不是就一直在空仓等待呢？",[827,863,864,866],{},[833,865,835],{}," ：呵呵，机会很多的话就无所谓机会了。空仓是件非常难的事。巴菲特的经验是当有钱没东西买的时候就很容易犯错误。空仓总比犯错好。（2010-03-01）",[827,868,869,871],{},[833,870,857],{}," 我其实从来没空仓过，多数情况下都是接近满仓的，所以见到好股票就必须从别的地方倒腾现金过来。所以说，当我见到便宜东西还能有钱买，有时确实是运气好。我真不是什么大师。（2010-03-06）",[827,873,874,876],{},[833,875,857],{}," 最难的就是什么都不做。当手里有很多现金的时候就很容易理解为什么这么说。Buffett说他最容易犯错的时候就是手里有很多现金的时候，me2.（2010-03-08）",[827,878,879],{},"网友：最近也经常半夜起来看看您的博客和纳斯达克的行情~有个小问题想问学长，您会每天看自己手里股票的quote吗？我一有空就老想看……巴菲特说他的股票就算一两年没有quote他也很comfortable，但是不知道在有quote的情况下他会不会也没事儿刷刷看呢？",[827,881,882,884],{},[833,883,835],{}," ：我肯定他不会半夜起来看。我猜他也会关心但不会着急，我现在大概也属于关心但不着急的状态。开始头几年有时会着急。（2010-03-17）",[827,886,887],{},"网友：请教一个问题，为了能在0.6元价格买到1元价值的机会出现时，可以迅速下手，必须时常性保持现金，极度耐心地等待吗？这个阶段，是最考验人的贪欲本性的时段吗？",[827,889,890,892],{},[833,891,857],{}," 我觉得对所谓价值投资者而言，其实没有那么考验。他们也就是没有合适的东西就不买了，有合适的再买，就和一般人逛商场一样。我想每个人逛商场时一定不会把花光身上所有钱作为目标吧。（2010-04-03）",[827,894,895],{},"网友：段大哥，钱都投到一个股票里还是太危险吧，总有考虑不到的因素。万一失手，翻身就太难了吧。（当然闲钱除外了）",[827,897,898,900,901,904],{},[833,899,835],{}," ：好像分散更危险啊。再说，",[833,902,903],{},"投资用的就应该是闲钱，不然很难有平常心。"," （2010-04-23）",[827,906,907],{},"网友：你当时买网易的时候也全部是用闲钱买的吗？一般的老百姓如果只用闲钱来投资，赚的钱对生活改善不大，老巴年轻的时候应该还是拿基本上全部的钱来投资的吧。",[827,909,910,912,913,916],{},[833,911,835],{}," ：问题是不用闲钱对生活会造成负面影响啊。",[833,914,915],{},"我从来都是用闲钱的。老巴其实也是。至少你要有用闲钱的态度才可能有平常心的，不然真会睡不着觉"," 。（2010-04-23）",[827,918,919],{},"网友：感觉国内股市地产股机会快来了……因为恐慌快来了，自己猜的。",[827,921,922,924],{},[833,923,857],{}," 任何时候别人的恐慌都可能是你的机会。（2010-04-23）",[827,926,927],{},"网友：2007年底有几天晚上没睡好，是怕第二天股市再跌；最近又有几天没睡好，是因为没有多余资金可以加仓，按段老师的说法，我应该是有些进步了，我好高兴哦。",[827,929,930,932],{},[833,931,835],{}," ：呵呵，是有进步了（2010-04-24）",[827,934,935],{},"网友：安东尼波顿的成绩是28年147倍，这个比例段总8-9年就实现了，当然可能管理方式不同，一个分散，一个集中，也许没有可比性。",[827,937,938,940],{},[833,939,857],{}," 投资不是竞赛，比来比去很无聊。（2010-05-12）",[827,942,943],{},"网友：我就想不明白不少人喜欢战胜指数，我只关心我长期赚到多少。",[827,945,946,948],{},[833,947,835],{}," ：更正一下：我认为一个人认为自己可以战胜指数的时候，他可能已经失去平常心了。我觉得好的价值投资者心中是不去比的。但结果往往是好的价值投资者会最后战胜指数。（2010-05-24）",[827,950,951],{},"网友X：我现在的感觉是理性重要，不知道段总是不是也这么认为。心态和专业知识都是依据理性才有需求的。",[827,953,954,956],{},[833,955,835],{}," ：我怎么认为不重要。芒格认为理性最重要。我们认为平常心最重要。好像这俩是一个东西。（2010-05-30）",[827,958,959],{},"网友：发现身边很多人都喜欢暴富的神话，我说平均年收益30%巴菲特也只是前十几年能做到，身边好多人觉得50%以上才算正常。",[827,961,962,964],{},[833,963,857],{}," 去赌场门口看看，暴富的故事多了去了。（2010-10-23）",[827,966,967,969],{},[833,968,857],{}," 要补充的一点是，老有人说投资改变了我的一生，这个说法其实完全不着边际，因为投资没有改变我任何东西，但我确实找到了一件很有趣的事情做而已，就像学会打高尔夫球一样。",[827,971,972],{},"投资并没有让我觉得自己更有钱，不然很难拿得住一只涨了100多倍的股票。",[827,974,975],{},"要想拿得住一只涨了很多的股票必须要有很好的平常心（芒格叫理性），平常人是很难有平常心的。不过，平常心大概是可以修炼出来的，和年纪可能也有点关系。（2011-09-27）",[827,977,978,980],{},[833,979,857],{}," 在投资里心理学大概最有用的就是当别人恐惧时和当别人贪婪时你不要跟别人一样就行了。说到头还是回归本源，就是回到价值上。只要你投的公司是自己明白的生意，就不容易恐惧也不容易贪婪，心理学其实也就没啥用了。（2011-10-24）",[827,982,983],{},"网友：绝大部分人是不会有耐心滚大雪球的，太辛苦太枯燥，不如搓个小雪球打雪仗过瘾！",[827,985,986,988],{},[833,987,857],{}," 打雪仗这个说法经典。（2011-11-19）",[827,990,991],{},"网友：每次重温宝典、巴老经典语录，都会有新的收获。A股市场弥漫着悲伤的气氛、大部分人带着恐慌的情绪。贪婪的时刻，果断且深信不疑地采取行动。",[827,993,994,996],{},[833,995,857],{}," 当所有人都悲伤的时候，机会就应该快出现了。（2011-12-16）",[827,998,999,1001],{},[833,1000,857],{}," 在真的理解的生意里一个人会选多少回报的？很多人错在选了自己不了解的别人说回报高的，结果是85%的人亏钱。如果问这85%的“投资者”选8%每年收益还是选择10%还是20%的，那就有点像某记者问人“你幸福吗？”",[827,1003,1004],{},"在真的自己理解的生意里，没道理选回报低的，但前提是真正理解！",[827,1006,1007],{},"每个人都能理解的生意其实就是把钱存银行了。",[827,1009,1010],{},"投资是只有很少人能理解的，所以大多数人还是别碰为好。（2013-02-01）",[827,1012,1013,1015],{},[833,1014,857],{}," 人们很喜欢用一年的回报率来衡量，但大资金的年回报率是没机会特别高的，比如巴菲特的BRK，但小资金却往往有机会有高比例的回报，比如周围的朋友中总会经常总会有某个人当年回报据说有40%、50%甚至更高的（就像一起去赌场的朋友中，第一天出来时总有个别人是兴高采烈的一样）千万别以为这些人已经比巴菲特厉害了。",[827,1017,1018],{},"偶尔会听到有人说某只股票至少会涨10倍，所以计划放10%进去等等。如果他真相信这只股票会涨10倍，什么理由他让只放10%呢？（2013-02-01）",[827,1020,1021],{},"网友：不知不觉苹果成了重仓股，这次下跌的时候心里有一点点不爽（个人认为是正常的，还做不到老巴跌了很爽的境界），跟以前痛苦的程度不可同日而语哈，稀饭这种感觉。",[827,1023,1024,1027],{},[833,1025,1026],{},"段永平：如果还想再多买且还有能力多买的话，下跌就应该爽，不然就应该尽量忽略"," 。（2013-02-12）",[827,1029,1030,1033],{},[833,1031,1032],{},"段永平：有人问过芒格，如果只能用一个词来形容他们的成功？他的回答是：“rationality”（理性），呵呵，有点像我们说的平常心。"," （2013-09-03）",[827,1035,1036],{},"网友：段总：以您对苹果的了解程度，您会每天会跟踪各种苹果的新闻吗？我在想离一只股票太近了，不但很花时间，而且容易忽略最重要的。反之，智能手机这个行业变化较快，不经常看好像也不行。有点纠结。望指教！",[827,1038,1039,1041],{},[833,1040,835],{}," ：你觉得跟踪每天的新闻会对你有帮助吗？如果没有的话，那你为什么要这么做？如果你投资了一家企业后还会为每天的新闻改变你对企业的看法，那大概就说明你对这家企业其实不了解。当然，traders是需要根据每天的新闻去做事情的，基本上，那样做应该会很累而且不太赚钱。另外，关心和跟踪是有点不太一样的。关心是一个享受的过程。（2014-02-05）",[827,1043,1044],{},"网友：您投资账户中平时也是必留一部分现金吗？好像看老巴讲的东西，说随时都有能用的现金！",[827,1046,1047,1049],{},[833,1048,857],{}," 除非我找不到目标，不然我不能理解留现金干什么。需要现金时可以卖股票啊！（2014-07-18）",[827,1051,1052,1054],{},[833,1053,857],{}," 经常看到人们对平均每年15%+的回报灰常不屑，不是很理解，似乎他们一出手就应该是5倍10倍啥的。平常年景的说法很有趣，因为对我而言每年都是平常年景。（2014-08-21）",[827,1056,1057],{},"网友：作为普通人，我想在未来30年内大概率持续获得10-15%的年化收益，最佳的策略是什么？",[827,1059,1060,1062],{},[833,1061,857],{}," 好像没有一个绝对把握能有10%以上年回报的办法，不然全世界的钱都会去那里的。（2019-03-16）",[827,1064,1065],{},"网友：我知道我买的苹果股票5年之内是不会卖的，但是还是忍不住每天看看股价，心情多多少少还是稍微受些影响，不知道您做投资初期也是经常看股价么，有什么好办法让自己少看股价么？",[827,1067,1068,1071],{},[833,1069,1070],{},"段永平：我现在也会每天看下股价啊，但心情不会受不好的影响。掉很多我会想着有没有机会加仓，涨很多我也可以开心一下嘛，所以涨跌都是好事。不过，我不是守在电脑前盯着屏幕看的那种"," 。（2019-05-20）",[827,1073,1074],{},"网友：请教一下，如果投资年化收益只有8%的话，一些国外家族信托也能做到7%，这样投资除了兴趣，经济效益并不高呀？",[827,1076,1077,1079],{},[833,1078,857],{}," 我的观点是8%就可以了，就是不要为了高回报去乱冒风险的意思。实际上我投资这些年的回报一直都比8%高不少呢。（2019-09-19）",[827,1081,1082,1084],{},[833,1083,857],{}," 我个人认为，投资最重要的动机是保值，保持购买力不下降。其他都是附带的。多数人可能没有意识到保值不是件容易的事情。看下M2的数字也许能明白点？（2020-10-26）",[827,1086,1087],{},"网友：已知投资大师长年的年复合投资收益率",[827,1089,1090,1092],{},[833,1091,857],{}," 巴菲特：22%，卡拉曼：16.5%，约翰·涅夫：13.8%，沃尔特·施洛斯：20%，约翰·邓普顿：14.5%，斯尔必·戴维斯：23%。",[827,1094,1095],{},"网友：如以年复利25%计算，3年195%，10年931%，20年8674%，40年752316%；事实上，没有哪个投资人做到了连续40年年回报25%；即使巴菲特，他的公司从1965年开始的40年复利是21.5%，总回报305134%；期望能获得长期25%复利是不切实际的",[827,1097,1098,1100],{},[833,1099,857],{}," 作为业余投资者，我觉得12%的复合增长就不错了，好像芒格也认为12%是个过得去的回报，这样比较平常心些。12%的回报：10年3.1倍，15年5.47倍，20年9.65倍，30年30倍，40年93倍。有这个心态，加上漫长的过程中可能会碰到的大机会，实际超过15%或更多也是可能的。",[827,1102,1103],{},"网友：Barton Biggs说了，与调整现有组合相比，手头拥有现金，重新开始一次新投资往往会表现比较好；因为没有心理负担。",[827,1105,1106,1108],{},[833,1107,835],{}," ：有时候有同感！可能是这样做比较容易平常心一些，没有包袱。包袱往往就是沉入成本。",[827,1110,1111],{},"网友：段大哥：您能不能举几个你认为错过的大的机会？你当时是个什么心态？",[827,1113,1114,1116],{},[833,1115,857],{}," 呵呵，我的心态很好。无论你多么努力，你都还是会错过无穷多机会，所以错过机会是正常的。比如，你查查每年股票升幅第一的股票，你看看有多少次能抓住就明白了（大多数情况下都抓不到）。（2010-04-02）",[827,1118,1119],{},"网友：我想问您一个问题：如果手上全是钱发现的机会不太满意，这个时候该不该出手？出手怕有风险。不出手又怕手里的钱在贬值。这个问题时不时困惑我。",[827,1121,1122,1124],{},[833,1123,857],{}," 没目标时钱在手里好过乱投亏钱亏钱。如果一有钱就乱投的话，早晚都会碰上个亏大钱的目标的。（2010-04-11）",[827,1126,1127],{},[833,1128,1129,1133],{},[1130,1131,18],"a",{"href":1132},"\u002Fpingchangxin","看，每一次买卖其实都是独立的。(2013-07-04)",[827,1135,1136],{},"一次有个朋友飞来旧金山，我去机场接。由于早到，我在停车场投币器里投了一个小时的钱。结果他也早到了，所以我们回到车上时，投币器里还剩半个多小时的时间没用完。于是我们决定为了不浪费已经投进投币器里的钱，在停车场里的车上又待了半个多小时。",[827,1138,1139],{},"现实当中也许没人会真的在停车场等，但据说有个调查显示，500强 CEO 里有85%的人承认他们干过类似的事情。本人属于85%这类人。(2010-03-30)",[827,1141,1142,1145],{},[833,1143,1144],{},"呵呵，这个故事讲的是沉没成本。沉没成本是指由于过去的决策已经发生了，而不能由现在或将来的任何决策改变的成本","。故事讲的就是为了去救已经沉没的钱又花了新的投资，结果是白花了。你可以想想自己有没有干过类似的事就明白了。(2010-04-02)",[827,1147,1148],{},"网友：再请教段大哥，我们平时手中是否要一直留有一些现金呢？记得老巴好像提到过手上要有现金，他说过，现金对企业来说，就像氧气对于一个人的作用。",[827,1150,1151,1153],{},[833,1152,857],{}," 仅就投资而言，如果有好公司好价钱，你为什么要留现金？（2018-09-30）",[827,1155,1156,1157],{},"如果你希望在未来5年内成为一个净储蓄者，你是否应该希望在这段时间内股票市场会上涨或下跌？很多投资者都错了。尽管他们将在未来的许多年里成为股票的净买家，但当股价上涨时，他们会兴高采烈；当股价下跌时，他们会沮丧。这种反应毫无意义。只有那些在不远的将来会成为股票卖家的人，才会乐于看到股票上涨。潜在买家应该更喜欢下跌的价格。- ",[833,1158,1159],{},"Warren Buffett",[827,1161,1162,1163,1166],{},"事实上，我们通常都是利用某些历史事件发生，",[833,1164,1165],{},"悲观气氛到达顶点时，找到最好的进场机会，恐惧虽然是盲从者的敌人，但却是基本面信徒的好朋友。"," （1994）",[827,1168,1169],{},"网友：请教一个问题当我买人股票后，股价还是持续下跌，会引起心绪不稳定，大家可能都碰到过这个情况．虽然我可以控制不看大盘，心里总是会想到这点，如果价格长期超跌，请问这段时间如何调节心绪，让自己不受影响呢？",[827,1171,1172,1174],{},[833,1173,857],{}," 我一般碰到这种情况（尤其是大跌时），会再全面认真地看一下是不是自己哪里看的不对，如果确认没问题我就不管了。",[827,1176,1177],{},"心情的事情说不清，一开始我也紧张。回想起来，紧张一般都来源于不了解。当你真的很了解你的投资标的时，下跌往往会让我觉得高兴或无动于衷。（2010-03-22）",[827,1179,1180],{},"网友：阿段你曾经有个问题要问问巴菲特有钱没项目怎么办，或者是没钱有项目又该怎么办，这个答案应该是等待吧。",[827,1182,1183,1186],{},[833,1184,1185],{},"段永平：没说过项目的事，主要是指股票投资。没钱当然好办（其实也未必，m argin就危险）；有钱没标的怎么办？巴菲特说：这事最难的事。呵呵，他也有这个问题。"," （2010-03-30）",[827,1188,1189],{},"网友：请教你一个问题：当价格较大低于价值时，该股票肯定是要继续持有的，但如何才能做到淡然处之不看行情？本人老是克服不了这种一有时间就想看该股行情的冲动。",[827,1191,1192,1194],{},[833,1193,857],{}," 想看就看一下嘛，看一下又没啥坏处。我也会看的。（2010-04-04）",[827,1196,1197],{},"网友：我有钱在手但一时找不到合适的目标，我也知道这个时候要有耐心等待好的机会。但有时比较着急，想多赚点钱。您有过这种感受吗？是怎么克服的？",[827,1199,1200,1202,1203,1206],{},[833,1201,835],{}," ：呵呵，等你年纪大点可能就有多些耐心了。只要你能理性思考，耐心自然就有了，或者说，",[833,1204,1205],{},"没耐心是理性不够的表现"," 。（2010-04-12）",[827,1208,1209],{},"网友：我发现自己的心态不好，心跳总是跟随股市上下起伏，经常想，如果这样会怎样，如果那样会如何。段大哥有机会讲讲自己心态方面的修炼经验。比如说你亏了一大笔钱的时候，心情肯定也不好吧？这个时候如何该调整心态呢？",[827,1211,1212,1214],{},[833,1213,835],{}," ：如果我买的公司是我很想买的公司，掉的时候我不会觉得心情不好。如果手里还有钱或还能从别的地方找到钱，我可能反而会觉得兴奋，因为可以买得更便宜。比如我在10块左右开始买GE，后来一直掉到6块，我就一直很高兴地多买了很多（比前面买的还要多很多）。",[827,1216,1217,1220],{},[833,1218,1219],{},"我觉得这不是心态而是理解的问题。如果你是从5年10年的角度看，你就不会每天跟着股市着急"," 。（2010-04-13）",[827,1222,1223],{},"网友H：我感觉自己有个毛病，一有现金便忍不住地以当前的“市场价格”买进自己所认为的好企业股票，等不到其“便宜”的时候，所以老是被套或是漫长的等待。这个毛病怎么克服？",[827,1225,1226,1228],{},[833,1227,835],{}," ：多亏几次就好了。呵呵，这不是玩笑，大多数人只有这个办法才能改。（2010-04-16）",[827,1230,1231],{},"网友：请教段总，我心里也会不太舒服，总觉得没有更多的钱再买了，这样的心态该如何调整啊？每次遇上大跌的时候总是觉得为什么没有更多的钱来买啊，郁闷中。",[827,1233,1234,1236],{},[833,1235,835],{}," ：呵呵，千万别为这种事郁闷。投资时最常见的状态就是有钱没目标和有目标时没钱了，可能这两种情况各占一半。如果你两种情况都郁闷的话，那可真有点哪个啥了。如果你能理性想想就好了。有空多看看老巴或者芒格的东西会更好。（2010-05-08）",[827,1238,1239],{},"网友K：段大哥：您什么时候开始有10年3倍我就满意了．这个想法的？是现在资金量大了之后才有这个想法？还是当年买网易时就是这样想的呀？",[827,1241,1242,1244],{},[833,1243,857],{}," 我一直这么想。10年3倍是个心态，不贪心。（2010-05-28）",[827,1246,1247],{},"网友：现在有两只我一直研究的股票比较便宜，但是还没到不用计算器都能看出来很便宜的时候。现在因为怕踏空，经常有想买入的冲动。但又担心现在买了，如果股价到了很便宜的时候又没有子弹了。不知道段大哥对这种情况是如何处理的？记得你说过你以前很少看股价，所以能等到很便宜的时候。",[827,1249,1250,1252],{},[833,1251,857],{}," 我很少考虑踏空的问题，也不太担心没子弹。实在觉得便宜就买，没钱了就打球去，没啥可着急的，不然永远都没法解决你那个问题。最重要的是你是不是真得懂你想投的那个公司，如果还不是的话，那就再等等，多看看想想。（2011-09-29）",[827,1254,1255],{},"网友（任俊杰）：我们应当有一个怎样的回报预期？",[827,1257,1258,1260],{},[833,1259,857],{}," 讲点自己对回报预期的看法；",[827,1262,1263],{},[833,1264,1265],{},"首先说明，本人从来不预设回报预期，因为对本人而言投资回报本来就和自己的预期无关。我对投资的认识是过程比结果重要，或者说是谋事在人成事在天，只要过程对了，结果自然会好；",[827,1267,1268],{},[833,1269,1270],{},"第二，长期而言，跑过银行存款应该是最基本的要求，不然就是啥忙了；",[827,1272,1273,1276],{},[833,1274,1275],{},"第三，从保值的角度看，长期而言投资回报至少要做到能保住购买力不变才叫不亏，也许用黄金来衡量会有点意思？"," （2012-08-14）",[827,1278,1279],{},"网友：作为一个小投资者，怎么样才是正确的心态呢？",[827,1281,1282,1284],{},[833,1283,857],{}," 投资心态和大小不应该有关系。如果你觉得自己是小投资者，那你很可能会一直是小投资者的。（2015-04-26）",[827,1286,1287,1288,1291,1292,1294],{},"网友：是不是心中没有",[1130,1289,12],{"href":1290},"\u002Fbenfen","和",[1130,1293,18],{"href":1132},"就悟不到你的回答？只有心中有这两样东西才能领会？",[827,1296,1297,1299],{},[833,1298,857],{}," 可能还需要时间吧？我花20年悟明白的东西也许你需要悟15年，如果你悟的话。",[827,1301,1302],{},"心中有道的人也许被点一下会有所悟，但那也是你自己的造化哈。",[827,1304,1305],{},"想起一个小故事。很多年前，我和华以刚下过一盘围棋，有一块我感觉非常不舒服，复盘的时候我问他为什么我怎么下都觉得不对，然后他告诉我：其实你这里怎么下都一样的，因为你前面下错了。",[827,1307,1308],{},"网友T：您当年购买网易的时候，当他下跌到1美元的时候，您是如何判断这个企业一定会没有问题的？希望您能把当时的心理状态给我们分享一下。我一直认为应该跟您学如何去寻找1块钱10年可能涨到100块钱的本事，而不是找到1块钱10年涨到3块钱的本事，这个难题一直困扰着我，特别想听听您在当时网易一块钱大量购买的原因。",[827,1310,1311,1313],{},[833,1312,857],{}," 10年100倍的东西多少有点可遇不可求。能有10年3倍的我就满意了。",[827,1315,1316],{},"网友：老师，我有一个关于投资的心态和操作方面的问题。",[827,1318,1319],{},"我花了好几年很长时间研究一个公司和他们的股票，在01年重重仓了这只股票（也是我买的唯一的一只），当时的股价为1.2元左右，到07年时高点曾到过40多元，因为经济危机，08年末曾跌到6元，我当时很后悔没有卖掉。",[827,1321,1322],{},"经过去年的09年复苏，在股价涨回到16元时，我就全仓卖掉了，但是股价现在上涨到了30多元，尤其是看到有人写文章分析说股价很快会回到40元并且将来会到100元以上时（当然也有人说股价已经很高很难再大涨），我感觉后悔极了。",[827,1324,1325],{},"几个月来，虽然空着仓，我一直继续关注着这个公司，我知道这是个优秀的并且将来还会有长足发展的公司，以前很少研究别的公司，即使研究同行业公司，也是为了对比了解一些情况。",[827,1327,1328],{},"但是现在，却好像有心理障碍用上次卖价的一倍再买回这个股票，我一直在懊悔中，几个月来，我不知道该怎么办才好，因为寻找和研究一个优秀的公司需要花很多时间和精力，请老师和这里的各位同学给我一些建议，哪怕安慰也好，让我能从懊悔中走出来，把心态好好调整一下。",[827,1330,1331,1333],{},[833,1332,857],{}," 呵呵，有时我也有同样的问题。我的处理方式是尽量用平常心去考虑这个问题，买卖的时候多想想自己标的的价值定义，尽量忽略市场价格的影响，尤其是要少考虑他的历史价格。呵呵，有点难。能够安慰你的地方是我基本可以保证所有人都或多或少有这个问题，所以请不要为此懊恼。",[827,1335,1336],{},"网友：你在投资时觉得困难的是什么时候？",[827,1338,1339,1341],{},[833,1340,857],{}," 满仓的时候我知道怎么办，但是我不知道空仓的时候该怎么办。我后来研究巴菲特，发现巴菲特也说过，最难的时候，是手上有很多钱，但是没有可投的项目。实际上巴菲特长期都处于这样的状态，没有发现可投的项目，就等待。这是做投资最困难的时候。",[827,1343,1344],{},"网友：我理解的大概率是不是指99.999%。",[827,1346,1347],{},"大道：哈，你是读书人？！这里大概率的意思我觉得应该是大于50%的意思，比如75-80%。数学上，大概率的意思确实就是99.99%。（2026-08-14）",[827,1349,1350],{},"网友：底仓已经打好，第一枪已经打出，往后做个耐心的猎手，场外好好挣钱，等待合理的价格或者公司错误定价。",[827,1352,1353],{},"大道：猎手其实也是猎物，农夫则不同。（2026-08-03）",[827,1355,1356],{},"网友：段哥，有人说“慢就是快”，我怎么觉得说这话的人本质还是要快。我的理性能理解这些，但内在感性还是希望“快”一些，“快”意味着更好。这是什么原因？",[827,1358,1359],{},"大道：应该说“欲速不达”。 “慢就是快”在逻辑上不成立。（2026-08-15）",[827,1361,1362],{},"网友：如何判断一个人成功，是靠运气还是实力？",[827,1364,1365,1367,1368,1371],{},[833,1366,857],{}," 如果他是凭运气赚到的钱，大多数早晚会凭实力亏掉。如果一个人几十年来运气都很好，千万别觉得那是幸存者偏差。",[833,1369,1370],{},"巴菲特","讲的那个扔硬币实验就是个很好的例子。",[827,1373,1374],{},"网友：如果您有1块钱钢镚掉缝里了，需要您花一分钟时间才能捡出来，您会去捡吗？",[827,1376,1377,1379],{},[833,1378,835],{}," ：钱会但币不会。（2019-09-10）",[827,1381,1382],{},"网友（任俊杰）：夹头就四个字，选对；拿住。目前看，大部分人还是觉得拿住比较难。我觉得大家是对的。选对和拿住。学会这两门课，在股市上赚钱那没有那么难了（还需要一点点小小的运气）不过，人性确实让第二条更难一些。因此我以为，你要拿出至少一半的精力去搞懂老巴讲的第二门课程。搞懂了，拿住，就不难了。",[827,1384,1385],{},"能“拿住”的几个要素（个人体会）：1．没有过高的期望回报（本人是年均12%）；2．对股市运行规律有一定了解，这点非常重要（为啥你总能逆向思考？且大部分都对？）；3．盯住比赛，而不是记分牌。（绝大部分人不是如此）；4．尽量让自己远离市场（不要天天看K线）；5．将评估投资回报的时间调整为5年以上；6．并不觉得自己比别人更聪明。",[827,1387,1388],{},"网友：段总我觉得做价值投资的人，首先接触时骨子里都有那种顿悟感，其次就是心里有不断新的认知的过程，这过程中间就像是把一知半解的认识连接成了融会贯通的体系。",[827,1390,1391],{},"我在没看您博之前就没有认识到买股票就是买公司的意义，还有忘记买入成本，卖出股票和赚了多少亏了多少没关系，没有考虑赚了多少而是考虑公司以后还能赚多少等等。就是这些小的点拨使我的内心真正的理解了该融会贯通的东西。我想说的是做投资有时还真得需要这种点拨，要不是您和朋友们的教导真不知道何时能这么明白“投资”太感谢了！",[827,1393,1394,1396],{},[833,1395,857],{}," 呵呵，我的这些感悟也是看了巴菲特的东西以后才有的。一开始接触投资时也看过几天（真的是几天啊）图和线。作为工科出身的人，居然发现这些图线其实和公司本身没太大关系，后来看了巴菲特的东西后就明白了，从此再也不看图看线了（偶尔查历史数据时还会看一下，不过是用工科的眼光看的）。",[827,1398,1399],{},"问：随着规模越来越大，伯克希尔·哈萨维已经降低了它的预期投资回报率吗？",[827,1401,1402,1405],{},[833,1403,1404],{},"巴菲特："," 伯克希尔没有1个预期投资回报率。更多的资本会使取得优秀的投资收益率变得更困难。如果我管理1百万美元，相对于目前管理2100亿美元（伯克希尔的净资产），将会取得更高的投资收益率。规模是投资表现的敌人，但我仍然更喜欢管理2100亿美元相较于管理1百万美元。",[827,1407,1408,1410],{},[833,1409,857],{}," 没有投资回报率目标的意思就是“谋事在人，成事在天”的意思。给自己设定短期投资回报率实际上有点滑稽，相当于猜测市场的短期反应。炫耀短期回报率高也是危险的，因为想要高回报率会让人铤而走险。（2013-12-18）",[827,1412,1413,1414,1417],{},"网友：大道，你雪球的自选股是否可作为我们小散户的投资参考，这些公司是否是你觉得",[1130,1415,70],{"href":1416},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","还不错的公司？",[827,1419,1420],{},"大道：绝对不可以，我自己都不知道关注啥了。有时候还会关注烂公司，就想看看他们的结局。",[827,1422,1423],{},"其实，这是雪球不好的地方之一。虽然方丈他们会说他们这么做绝对不是为了流量，但难道他们还能给出别的解释吗？!我关注什么本来应该是我的隐私，我找过有没有办法关闭，但找不到。以前也有人问起我的关注。当然，我并不操心那些跟着我关注乱研究的人们，他们如果不亏在这些地方，也会亏在别的地方的。（2025-11-03）",[827,1425,1426],{},"网友：可不可以这样理解，投资是一种在“不确定性中寻找概率优势”的艺术？",[827,1428,1429,1430,1433],{},"大道：为什么要套上“艺术”这种谁也说不清的东西？显得你有水平吗？投资是非常",[1130,1431,222],{"href":1432},"\u002Flixing","的东西，艺术是非常感性的。（2025-12-05）",[827,1435,1436],{},"网友：大道老师您好，我是您的一名普通中年老粉。请问您觉得您的性格是更偏向乐观还是务实，您觉得这两种性格特质哪种更适合在资本市场长期生存？",[827,1438,1439],{},"大道：我偏客观。（2026-02-02）",[827,1441,1442,1443,1291,1446,1449],{},"网友：请教大道，像",[833,1444,1445],{},"苹果",[833,1447,1448],{},"茅台","这样，您跟踪了很久的公司，是不是会难免产生主观感情？如何在评价自己长时间跟踪的公司时，做到尽量客观？",[827,1451,1452,1453,1455],{},"大道：全是",[1130,1454,222],{"href":1432},"。（2026-02-02）",[827,1457,1458],{},"网友：段总，随着你的投资经验的增加，你和以前比进步在那些方面？",[827,1460,1461,1463,1464,1467],{},[833,1462,857],{}," 呵呵，",[833,1465,1466],{},"心态好很多，不怕失去机会，最重要是不犯大错"," 。（2010-03-18）",[827,1469,1470],{},"网友：反思！",[827,1472,1473,1475],{},[833,1474,857],{}," 突然觉得自己像个无招的剑客。开始得意不是什么好事，突然又想起会飞的猪。（2012-07-17）",[827,1477,1478],{},"网友：给博主发一个芒格思维的东东“聪明的飞行员不会忘了使用他的检查清单，无论他拥有何等突出的天赋或者丰富的经历。”——芒格",[827,1480,1481,1483],{},[833,1482,857],{}," 呵呵，我想大多数人可能看不懂。在美国，美国飞行员起飞前都抱着一本大手册看啊看的，坐飞机的可能心里会发毛，觉得今天是不是碰上个新手了？",[827,1485,1486],{},"其实芒格自己在70年代就犯过很大错误，差点就出局了。他就是忘了看那本手册。",[827,1488,1489],{},"网友：巴老50岁时约等于现在的名义资产20亿（市值约40亿）。我估段老师的资产约20亿弱。段老师才49岁，属于成熟青年，是否跑赢巴老就是PK今年啦。段老师加油！",[827,1491,1492,1494],{},[833,1493,857],{}," 呵呵，谋事在人，成事在天啊。有PK的想法对投资可不是什么好事。其实我不太清楚我自己的身价（好像光网易我就赚了有20亿rmb了），钱够用就行了，多出来的都是责任和乐趣，千万别成了负担。（2010-05-05）",[827,1496,1497],{},"网友：请教大道，假设现在市场上只有拼多多和泡泡玛特两家公司可以买，您会怎么选？",[827,1499,1500],{},"大道：很讨厌别人问这类假装自己很聪明的问题。如果你有两个小孩，却只能留一个，你留谁？世界不是这么简单的吧？模糊的正确是好过假装精确的。（2026-04-14）",[827,1502,1503],{},"网友：第一反应是：啊，我没想假装聪明，只是想问当下哪个机会更好。",[827,1505,1506],{},"大道：作为一个喜欢打golf的人，经常会被人问到“你最喜欢哪个球场”。有机会的话，我常常会想问，你有几个孩子？然后再问，你最喜欢哪个？现实里我从来没这么问过，但我也从不问人这类假装问问题的问题。你到底想问什么你是可以先仔细想清楚的，不要浪费（别人的）时间在问这类问题上。",[827,1508,1509],{},"其实我每天都会屏蔽掉一些问我我回答过很多次的问题的人们。不知道为什么那么多人问问题的时候完全不花功夫，也许这就是他们的命吧，因为别的事情上他们大概率也是这样对付的。我不是针对你哈，你的问题很好，但花的功夫也不够。（2026-04-14）",[827,1511,1512],{},"网友：大道做投资时，特别是思考的时候，有没有一种孤独感？",[827,1514,1515,1517],{},[833,1516,857],{}," 从来没有过，因为我从来不在乎别人怎么看投资。只是偶尔会想说：you idiot(你个傻子)!",[827,1519,1520],{},"网友：当手头有闲置的现金又找不到合适的股票买入，内心里觉得钱如果没能“花”出去就是在贬值，我会着急。换作是您，您会怎么做呢？",[827,1522,1523,1525,1526,1528],{},[833,1524,857],{}," 我会着急，但是，着急时尽量不要决策。决策要建立在",[1130,1527,222],{"href":1432},"的基础上。",[827,1530,1531,1532,1535,1536,1539],{},"网友：深刻认同大道的总结，作为一个投资者，必须具备的一个特质是乐观：世界会变得越来越好，人们对优质产品和服务的追求是无止境的，以合适价格投资这些有好的",[833,1533,1534],{},"生意模式","+好的",[1130,1537,135],{"href":1538},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","的公司，拉长时间看一定会取得相对不错的回报。",[827,1541,1542,1544],{},[833,1543,857],{}," 投资者需要“客观”，“乐观”是有可能害死人的哈。(2025-09-26)",[827,1546,1547,1548,1551],{},"网友L：段大哥，是不是也可以这样理解：在没有平常心的地方是找不到平常心的。我亲身经历平常心不是求来的，而是“做对的事，",[1130,1549,28],{"href":1550},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","”后自然而然就有的一种心态。以前曾经有过的急躁其实也是在没弄懂或者没计划然后把事情搞砸后的一种自然反应。",[827,1553,1554,1556],{},[833,1555,857],{}," 在错的道路上是没办法有平常心的，比如用着margin的人们，昨天那种情况下，你懂的。（2015-05-29）",[827,1558,1559,1560,1562],{},"网友：要做到",[1130,1561,18],{"href":1132},"好难，是不是再怎么努力也无法完全做到？有什么方法吗？",[827,1564,1565,1567,1568,1570,1571,1573,1574,1576,1577,1579,1580,1582],{},[833,1566,857],{}," 股市掉这么点儿就这样了？平常人是很难有",[1130,1569,18],{"href":1132},"的，所以",[1130,1572,18],{"href":1132},"又叫不",[1130,1575,18],{"href":1132},"。如果你关心的不是事物的本质，没有",[1130,1578,18],{"href":1132},"是正常的。倒过来也一样，如果你关注的只是事物的本质，",[1130,1581,18],{"href":1132},"自然就在那里了。",[827,1584,1585],{},"网友S：今晚道琼斯跌了接近10%，9百多点，疯了。段大哥又有机会进yahoo了。想问问段大哥，此时的心态怎么控制。",[827,1587,1588,1590],{},[833,1589,857],{}," 如果你不是用margin，心态就不应该有问题啊。呵呵，头几年也会不太舒服，现在基本上无所谓。（2010-05-07）",[827,1592,1593,1594,1597],{},"网友：比尔·米勒(Bill Miller)这次金融危机亏掉了老本，连续15年战胜指数，但一年的亏损就把15年的利润搞没有了，亏的比赚的多。他是不是太高估自己了？以前觉得他是个",[1130,1595,58],{"href":1596},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者，这次危机中露出原形了，他曾经在安然公司上栽跟头，这次又在房地美等企业上栽跟头。其实价值骗子还蛮多的。",[827,1599,1600,1601,843],{},"所以你对多少次都无所谓，关键是错的时候千万不要损失太大，这涉及",[1130,1602,101],{"href":1603},"\u002Fanquanbianji",[827,1605,1606,1608,1609,1611,1612,1614],{},[833,1607,857],{}," 我认为当一个人开始追求战胜指数的时候，他可能已经失去",[1130,1610,18],{"href":1132},"了。很多人在这次金融危机中都有一些再也回不来的重伤股，",[833,1613,1370],{},"一个也没有，这绝对不是偶然的，但好像很少人注意到这点。(2010-05-23)",[827,1616,1617,1618,1621],{},"“如果你想提高自己的认知能力，忘记过去犯过的错误是坚决不行的。”(",[833,1619,1620],{},"芒格",")",[827,1623,1624],{},"想起小偷被抓以后，满脑子都是如何改进偷技的想法的那个故事。",[827,1626,1627],{},[833,1628,1629,1630,1632],{},"所以这里的错误有两种性质：(1)做了错的事情一以后不能再做放上不为清单；(2)在",[1130,1631,28],{"href":1550},"上犯了错误一这个不可避免，但可以通过学习改进。那个小偷犯的是第一个错，但用的是第二个改进办法，会更糟的。",[827,1634,1635,1636,1639,1640,1621],{},"“",[833,1637,1638],{},"最好是从别人的悲惨经历中学到深刻教训，而不是自己的。我们有些成功是早就预言的，有些是意外获得的。","”(",[833,1641,1620],{},[827,1643,1644],{},"不听老人言，吃苦在眼前和眼后。看了这句话以后，其实大多数人还是不会听的。",[827,1646,1647],{},"能从自己的错误里吸取教训就已经很了不起了，能从别人的错误里吸取教训的那都是天才。",[827,1649,1650],{},"坚持犯自己犯过的错误的人也不用太不高兴啊，至少股市上85%以上的人是这样的。有人陪总是一件不错的事情。(2012-06-26)",[827,1652,1653],{},"网友：老巴从小就喝碳酸饮料，吃垃圾食品，健康状况为何会如此良好，仅仅是因为喜欢还是掌握什么长寿的秘诀？比如只做喜欢的事，只吃喜欢的东西，只要心情愉悦就能长寿？",[827,1655,1656,1658],{},[833,1657,857],{}," 这种问题应该有很多砖家啊。巴菲特身体好是因为不做短线，心情好。（2010-07-22）",[822,1660,1662],{"id":1661},"第二节-球场上的投资启发","第二节 球场上的投资启发",[827,1664,1665,1666,843],{},"更多打球经历与成绩见",[1130,1667,1669],{"href":1668},"\u002Fwenda-life-06#%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E8%8A%82-%E9%AB%98%E5%B0%94%E5%A4%AB","高尔夫问答",[827,1671,1672],{},"网友：段大哥您做企业时也是把利润当作副产品，作投资也是这样，不想改变您的生活方式。把投资当作爱好。可能您最后赚的钱远远多过职业做的。",[827,1674,1675,1677],{},[833,1676,857],{}," 投资是个很有趣的行业，有些业余的有机会比有些职业的做得好，别的行业很难见到这种情况，体育里基本不太可能，除了足球。（2010-04-27）",[827,1679,1680],{},"网友：很想玩玩高尔夫，相信我会打得不错。",[827,1682,1683,1685],{},[833,1684,857],{}," 呵呵，也许就像很多人觉得自己股票会做得不错一样。（2010-07-15）",[827,1687,1688,1690,1691,1694],{},[833,1689,857],{}," 昨天打了场球，虽然推杆很烂（37推），成绩不算好（78），但没有double。",[833,1692,1693],{},"现在我打球的最高追求就是double free，有点像投资，尽量少犯大错。只要能做到这一点，成绩总还是过得去。"," 过去的统计表明，我大概一年只有一场球能做到double free，连打70杆的那场球居然也是有一个double的。",[827,1696,1697,1700],{},[833,1698,1699],{},"这也说明只要打球，不犯错是很难的，少犯且不致命最重要"," 。（2011-01-14）",[827,1702,1703],{},"引用：网易财经专访段永平（2007-06）",[827,1705,1706,1709],{},[833,1707,1708],{},"打球和投资一样，最重要的是避免犯错，尤其是犯大错。只要少犯大错，成绩总是不错的。"," （2011-10-28）",[827,1711,1712],{},"网友：这个水平确实太厉害了啊。狂赞！参加职业比赛应该都没问题了吧？",[827,1714,1715,1717],{},[833,1716,857],{}," 呵呵，你这说法有点像乱买了一只股票赚了钱，就觉得可以和老巴比试比试了。业余球员可以偶尔打一场好球，就像偶尔打一局高分的保龄球一样。职业水平是几乎每一场都必须打好，打不好的是很难混饭吃的。（2011-10-29）",[827,1719,1720],{},"网友L：段哥，我听说你也有好多赔钱的投资，是么？",[827,1722,1723,1725],{},[833,1724,857],{}," 我也听说了，但不知道是什么。当你把一块钱变成100块或更多以后，中间发生过什么其实都不会是坏事。",[827,1727,1728],{},"呵呵，就像打golf，只要打球的人，都有把球打下水的经历，但老打下水就问题大了。（2012-02-02）",[827,1730,1731],{},"引用：巴菲特投资失误——20亿美元或血本无归",[827,1733,1734],{},"亿万富翁投资者、“股神”沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett）称，他麾下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK）所购买的大约20亿美元的电力公司Energy Future Holdings Corp。",[827,1736,1737,1739],{},[833,1738,835],{}," ：就是说相当于1%的市值可能没有了，如果气价继续跌的话。相对于这几年老巴投资能赚的钱而言，这个实在是不算什么。有点像一场golf里打了个坏球，但总成绩还是很好。只要下场打球，错误是不可避免的，赢家都是那些错误率低的人。（2012-02-28）",[827,1741,1742],{},"网友：在投资和高尔夫领域都有可能是业余打败职业的地方。有意思的两个领域。",[827,1744,1745,1747,1748,1751],{},[833,1746,857],{}," 高尔夫业余没机会打败职业的，那水平不是差一点点，是难以想象的差距。",[833,1749,1750],{},"投资大概是唯一的能看到业余比职业表现好的地方，但整体而言，应该还是职业好。别忘了，巴菲特也算职业的"," 。（2013-01-31）",[827,1753,1754],{},"网友：如果人生是一场高尔夫球赛，那么你一生只能发出十次好球，错过一次就只有九次了。",[827,1756,1757,1759],{},[833,1758,857],{}," 这点上投资和golf有巨大的差别，因为打球经常是箭在弦上，到你了就必须打，不能等。投资里没有必须投的东西，不懂永远可以等。（2013-02-12）",[827,1761,1762],{},"网友：投资和打好高尔夫，哪个更难？",[827,1764,1765,1767],{},[833,1766,857],{}," 两个都是我最喜欢的游戏，他们都很难。也许golf更难些吧。我认为golf更难的原因是，golf你不能说这杆我还没想好，所以我现在不想打。投资你永远都可以说，我还没想好，我不想做什么。（2019-03-30）",[827,1769,1770,1772],{},[833,1771,857],{}," 希望最后一天的最后一组有老虎。老虎又没戏了。",[827,1774,1775],{},[833,1776,1777],{},"golf有很多地方特别像投资。",[827,1779,1780],{},[833,1781,1782],{},"比如：1．挥杆原则非常简单。a.就是学不会，但自己不知道；b.打球时老是会忘掉原则；c.很难保持平常心去坚持原则。",[827,1784,1785,1788],{},[833,1786,1787],{},"2．会打的可以来补充"," 。",[827,1790,1791],{},"网友：投资和打高尔夫还有一点是相似的。那就是高尔夫的动作不能变形，投资的基本原则也不能变，动作和原则一变，成绩和投资的效果就没有了保证。在市场，诱惑太多，一不小心就忘了原有的价值投资的原则，这样，长期投资效果就不会好。",[827,1793,1794,1796],{},[833,1795,857],{}," 基本原则这一条非常像，还有些别的也很像。（2010-04-11）",[827,1798,1799],{},"网友：为什么不要当职业？",[827,1801,1802,1804],{},[833,1803,857],{}," 呵呵，不当职业的意思是：除非你是Tiger Woods这种水平的球手，不然当职业高尔夫球手太辛苦。这句话的潜在意思是，如果一个人还不是很了解投资的话，最好不要去做职业投资人。（2010-04-23）",[827,1806,1807],{},"网友：Bill Miller这次金融危机亏掉了老本，连续15年战胜指数，但一年的亏损就把15年的利润搞没有了，亏的比赚的多。我觉得他是不是太高估自己了？以前觉得他是个价值投资者，这次危机中露出原形了，以前他曾经在安然公司上栽跟头，这次又在房地美等企业上栽跟头。其实价值骗子还蛮多的。",[827,1809,1810,1811,843],{},"这里引出一个问题，你对多少次都无所谓，关键是错的时候千万不要损失太大，这涉及到",[1130,1812,101],{"href":1603},[827,1814,1815,1817,1818,1821],{},[833,1816,857],{}," 我认为当一个人开始最近战胜指数的时候，他可能已经失去平常心了。",[833,1819,1820],{},"很多人在这次金融危机中都有一些再也回不来的重伤股，巴菲特一个也没有，这绝对不是偶然的，但好像很少人注意到这点。"," （2010-05-23）",[827,1823,1824],{},"讲个小故事，我有个球友，看上去水平和我差不多而且还特别想赢我钱，老是来挑战我。结果我们打了超过50场球了，他只赢过一次半，那半次是因为大雨只打了9洞。他最大的问题就是老冒不该冒的风险。18洞的游戏，他那么打怎么能不输？结果确实输的很惨啊。顺便说下，我早就告诉他那样打不对，人家不听啊。（2011-10-28）",[827,1826,1827],{},"网友：您觉得高尔夫难还是投资难？您认为打好高尔夫最大的核心是什么？你的投资是否也出现过拿不准核心或者一直在变的周期？",[827,1829,1830,1832],{},[833,1831,857],{}," 我个人觉得golf难很多。golf的业余和职业是有天壤之别的，投资确未必。我不知道golf的核心是什么，投资确很简单：买股票就是买公司，搞懂公司生意就好了，搞不懂就别碰。（2020-10-14）",[827,1834,1835],{},"问：业界对段永平的评价是两个字：‘保守’，他的保守成就了他的事业”，您对这句话怎么看？",[827,1837,1838,1840,1841,1788],{},[833,1839,857],{}," “保守”的定义是什么？我认为我这个人从来不保守，",[833,1842,1843],{},"做投资要承担很多风险的，不管花多少钱都要承担风险，但是我不冒险，我们追求更健康，更长久，这不是“保守”，而是更健康，是平常心的概念",[827,1845,1846],{},[833,1847,1848],{},"就像我讲的打高尔夫球，你追求的是整体成绩，是乐趣，而不是一竿进洞，进洞之后，虽然这杆很漂亮，但是整体上没多大改善。就像巴菲特讲的，你可以99件事情做对了，1件小的错误就可以造成你所有的成就落空，最重要的就是不要让小的错误发生。",[827,1850,1851],{},"我经营企业差不多20多年，竞争对手已经换了很多，我们每次做的时候，别人都说这样不好，应该怎么做。我说冒风险几年后肯定会出问题的。几年后这个人找到我就说，你这个人真厉害。",[827,1853,1854],{},"企业也是一样，要看长远的发展，投资和做企业的想法都差不多：你是否真的20年之后，你还愿意拿着这个股票？（2007-06）",[827,1856,1857,1858,1860],{},"网友S：",[1130,1859,58],{"href":1596},"的文章很多，但都是why，最关键的how，却鲜有文章书籍提及，仅仅是Pat Dorsey和老巴芒格谈到一些，真正困扰人的问题是如何分析识别企业的核心竞争力？",[827,1862,1863,1865],{},[833,1864,857],{}," 其实没人可以告诉别人怎么做投资，但巴菲特告诉别人的是投资中什么东西不该做。看看巴菲特这么多年的（低）错误率就不难理解为什么巴菲特的总投资回报高了。（2011-09-19）",[822,1867,1869],{"id":1868},"第三节-投资学习与书籍选择","第三节 投资学习与书籍选择",[827,1871,1872,1873,843],{},"一般阅读和开放学习的问答见",[1130,1874,1876],{"href":1875},"\u002Fwenda-life-05#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E8%8A%82-%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E4%B8%8E%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83","学习与阅读",[827,1878,1879],{},"网友：滚雪球这本书你看了吗？有什么感悟啊？",[827,1881,1882,1884],{},[833,1883,835],{}," ：看了几页，看不下去。这书我觉得写得不太好，琐碎。不过，不太了解巴菲特的人还是可以看看，比从这了解巴菲特要强。我不太喜欢看这本书还有一个很重要的原因，我发现巴菲特不喜欢这本书。（2010-03-19）",[827,1886,1887,1890],{},[833,1888,1889],{},"段永平：把这个博客从头看一遍，问答看三遍，还不明白就再来一次，直到明白了。"," （2013-04-19）",[827,1892,1893],{},"网友：请问段大哥以前看过芒格的书吗？投资这么厉害。",[827,1895,1896,1898],{},[833,1897,835],{}," ：没有，但知道很多芒格的故事。（2010-05-05）",[827,1900,1901],{},"网友Z：段总要是出要关于价值投资方面的书，我订十本。",[827,1903,1904,1906],{},[833,1905,835],{}," ：已经有这么多好书了，我干嘛要添乱。（2010-05-05）",[827,1908,1909],{},"网友：建议老段也开一些投资书籍的栏目，然后老段根据自己阅读过的书籍，建议大家去读哪一本，请老段给我们解答一些问题，大家讨论关于这本书的内容和投资理念等等。",[827,1911,1912,1914],{},[833,1913,835],{}," ：排名不分先后：巴菲特给股东的信、巴菲特名言录、基业长青、韦尔奇自传。有空还可以看：查理宝典、穷爸爸富爸爸。（2010-07-08）",[827,1916,1917],{},"网友：您看过《证券分析》吗？关于股票的书除了您推荐的巴菲特的信，严行方那本外，您还看过那些？",[827,1919,1920,1922],{},[833,1921,835],{}," ：我没看过《证券分析》，其实也只是翻过一下我推荐的这几本书。当年我跟老巴讲我向他学到的关于投资的东西就是“买股票就是买公司”，然后他说，这正是他从他老师那里学到的。我能够投资不是因为我看过哪些书，而是因为我自己确实能理解企业。（2011-01-27）",[827,1924,1925],{},"网友：我给大家搜索了《200本巴菲特、芒格及段永平推荐书籍下载》的链接，方便大家下载阅读。适合自己的请购买正版书籍。",[827,1927,1928,1930],{},[833,1929,835],{}," ：200本那么多？害人的吧？（2011-06-29）",[827,1932,1933],{},"网友：呵呵，对段总的评价我可担不起、我是如芒刺背呀！我只是为节省大家的时间和精力、为网友找出链接地址来，其中的一部分是巴菲特、芒格或段先生您本人推荐的……至于什么书是适合自己的，需要网友们自己甄别。",[827,1935,1936,1938],{},[833,1937,835],{}," ：我还是认为对于投资关键在悟，看书太多没太大意思，反而浪费时间。（2011-06-30）",[827,1940,1941],{},"网友：请教您一个问题，很多人说人要多看书、而且量要大，但是我发现如果有几本好书、反复的看、加深理解，效果更好些，比如你介绍的｛基业长青｝｛从优秀到卓越｝如果坚持的按照书里的正确理念去做，自己会进步得快些扎实些。",[827,1943,1944,1946],{},[833,1945,835],{}," ：那看你要干什么。投资需要的书特别少，会投资的一般都不写书。我个人认为好书反复看会容易学到东西。不过，我确实见到有些厉害的人可以看很多书并且看得很快而且能记得都看过啥。（2012-03-27）",[827,1948,1949],{},"网友：段大哥看过《聪明的投资者》这本书吗？",[827,1951,1952,1954],{},[833,1953,857],{}," 我没看过但我知道里面说啥。这本书其实就是一句话：买股票就是买公司。（2012-05-08）",[827,1956,1957],{},[833,1958,1959],{},"段永平：“道”的东西需要悟，“术”的东西可以学。2018-09-24",[827,1961,1962,1964],{},[833,1963,835],{}," ：悟应该就是思考本质的意思吧？（2019-09-29）",[827,1966,1967,1969,1970,1973],{},[833,1968,857],{}," 我不看关于投资的书的。",[833,1971,1972],{},"投资的书要慎重，因为大部分跟投资有关的书可能都是把你往沟里带的。当然，我没有太多发言权，因为我毕竟都没看过。"," （2020-10-23）",[827,1975,1976],{},"网友：段前辈能不能推荐几本投资方面的书？巴菲特和本杰明的书是不是都应该精读几遍啊？",[827,1978,1979,1981],{},[833,1980,835],{}," ：本人唯一看过书就是巴菲特给股东的信，好像还没看完。道理讲来讲去都一样，明白了就行了。其他的书我翻过一些。我认为，如果你能明白巴菲特，别的书不看也没关系；如果你不明白巴菲特，别的书不看也没关系。（2010-02-11）",[827,1983,1984],{},"网友：段大哥：您上次说要聚焦，要不然很累。我觉得这句话让人回味的东西很多，我现在其他人的书也不怎么看了，主要就看巴菲特的为主。我想这也是您说的聚焦法则。",[827,1986,1987,1989],{},[833,1988,857],{}," 有进步。（2010-06-07）",[827,1991,1992],{},"网友：想问一下，关于读书的问题，巴菲特、芒格提倡多读书，芒格说自己是长了两条腿的书，芒格推荐的20多本书，我基本读完了。我感觉每次读《穷查了宝典》都有新的收获，如果走量，不深入研读，可能效果也不好，如果选择了不好的书，也是浪费时间。读完之后如何再选择阅读书目，还是反复研读这些书？谢谢！",[827,1994,1995,1997],{},[833,1996,857],{}," 如果你喜欢读书就读吧，读书多和投资好坏其实没啥关系，芒格在这点上说的未必适合所有人。（2016-09-27）",[827,1999,2000,2001,2004],{},"网友：最近看了一遍《从优秀到卓越》，促进了“",[1130,2002,23],{"href":2003},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","”的内涵的理解。十年前看过《基业长青》，没有留下什么印像，现正在看；这一年多在本博客中的浸染，使我似乎读懂了一些《基业长青》。感觉这两本书不仅对做企业有指导作用，对每个人的人生也同样具有指导作用。",[827,2006,2007,2009],{},[833,2008,857],{}," 从买股票就是买公司的角度看，这两本书确实值得看。（我都翻过一下，觉得蛮好的。）（2013-04-02）",[827,2011,2012],{},"网友：听君一席话，胜读十年书。",[827,2014,2015,2017],{},[833,2016,857],{}," 这话说的！你都读谁的书了？！老巴啥都讲过，早就讲过了。（2025-07-18）",[827,2019,2020],{},"在此再次推荐一下《穷查理宝典》，查理对“实际上非常难”的东西很有办法。",[827,2022,2023],{},"对刚刚开始了解价值投资的人来说，李路写的序非常值得认真读几遍。",[827,2025,2026],{},"希望不要觉得这本书贵，因为值。我是这个月初去LA参加查理的股东大会时买的。110美金一本买了两本（没有查理签名的是60美金一本），我觉得这可能是我一生中最好的一笔投资。（其实我两年前就买过两本原文的，一直没看，所以真的有点贵）（2010-05-25）",[827,2028,2029,2031],{},[833,2030,857],{}," 对了解投资而言，读书多确实未必有帮助，因为关于投资的好书很少，有投资鉴别力的读者可能也不是很多。",[827,2033,2034,2036],{},[833,2035,857],{}," 如果你觉得看我的东西有收获的话，你就可以好好看看老巴的东西了。建议你看多几遍，一遍是不够的。（2012-09-20）",[827,2038,2039],{},"网友：看看彼得·林奇的书，相信他也会买泡泡。",[827,2041,2042],{},"大道：当然啊，他买过2000多只票。（2026-07-12）",[827,2044,2045],{},"网友：原来大道也会说“票”而不是“股票”。",[827,2047,2048],{},"大道：买过2000只票的人心里大概不会有买公司的概念吧。（2026-07-13）",[827,2050,2051,2053],{},[833,2052,835],{}," ：本人觉得这节目做得很不错了，值得关注巴菲特的人反复看。",[827,2055,2056],{},"如果这个节目能做成《对话》特别版，分个上下集，让老巴和芒格多讲点当然会更好，但我觉得最重要的东西都在里面了。",[827,2058,2059],{},"还是那句老话，对看得懂的人来讲，这些也就够了。对看不懂的人，再多其实帮助也不大。（2010-10-18）",[827,2061,2062,2064],{},[833,2063,835],{}," ：大概是因为股东大会在即，最近听了很多巴菲特的讲话，每次听都觉得很有收获。我把能在网上找到的老巴的讲话都下载了，大部分是买的。youtube上有很多，是免费的，但看起来稍微有点不方便。主要内容：在几个大学的讲话，和charlie rose的对话以及电视采访等。如果能听懂的话，建议听听，感觉比看给股东的信更直接和有趣。",[827,2066,2067],{},"我也经常有很多地方听不懂，但反复听后发现大部分都能听懂，不知道是不是听力有点进步。",[827,2069,2070],{},"直接听的好处是：听到的东西是原汁原味的，对真正理解可能有帮助。（2012-04-30）",[827,2072,2073],{},"网友R：不防看看佛教的书，或许对“悟”有不一样的诠释。可能对投资有帮助。",[827,2075,2076,2078],{},[833,2077,857],{}," 就投资而言，我觉得不需要。不懂企业的人其实看什么都没用，包括这个博客。",[827,2080,2081,2082,2085],{},"网友：林奇教了很多招如何看公司的",[1130,2083,110],{"href":2084},"\u002Fjibenmian","。可以说林奇属于“把事情如何做对”的大师。我个人的看法。",[827,2087,2088,2090],{},[833,2089,857],{}," 我翻过彼得林奇的书，只不过不记得他的名字而已。大家在这里说了以后我又看了一下，发现原来其实看过了。（翻过一本好像叫《战胜华尔街》）",[827,2092,2093],{},"他的东西可以看，但不要掉进去。感觉他像武侠小说里的剑术高手，但更高的高手是无招的。（2010-12-10）",[827,2095,2096],{},"网友：我不知道段大哥对林奇怎么看，我最喜欢的一本书就是彼得林奇的《彼得林奇的成功投资》，我觉得彼得林奇的书在细节上更适合我们普通的投资者，",[827,2098,2099,2101],{},[833,2100,857],{}," 林奇是个能同时买几百只股票的人，学他会累死你。（2012-04-28）",[827,2103,2104,2106],{},[833,2105,835],{}," ：我不是反对看彼得林奇的书，实际上他确实有好多东西讲得很好，《One Up on Wall Street》是非常值得读的一本书。不过，不知道为什么，我总是觉得林奇对股价说得太多了点，或许他只是为了让普通投资者更容易明白些？（2012-04-29）",[827,2108,2109],{},"网友：段总您好，我是投资小白，非常喜欢读您的言论，平实朴实，不能完全懂但是感觉很相应，经常摘抄下来仔细体会…请教您一个问题：想学习投资，却不知道从哪里开始？谢谢．",[827,2111,2112,2114],{},[833,2113,857],{}," 从看巴菲特的东西开始吧。",[827,2116,2117],{},"网友：作为一个普通人，我们如何可以拥有这种洞察力？有哪些途径呢？",[827,2119,2120,2122],{},[833,2121,835],{}," ：看且只看老巴的东西，先看10年再说。（2017-04-19）",[827,2124,2125],{},"网友：这个我稍微有点疑问，巴菲特和芒格都是大量的阅读。不过我也赞成好书反复看。",[827,2127,2128,2130],{},[833,2129,835],{}," ：就投资而言，我真没见过几个至少看懂一本书的，多了就更不好了吧？（2012-04-01）",[827,2132,2133],{},"网友：像我这种情况，愿意将未来几个月以至几年时间花在这个上面，但我怎样利用我这些时间才更有效、有所进步呢？比如这些时间用来读更多书哪些书，这方面段老师能否给一些指导建议？",[827,2135,2136,2138],{},[833,2137,857],{}," 对了，关于怎么投资的书，我觉得最重要的书是巴菲特写给股东的信，其次是巴菲特平时的言论。如果你真看懂了，你就可以开始了。如果谁觉得巴菲特已经过时，谁在投资时就该小心了，不然过时的很快就会是自己。该讲的老巴都讲了，别人谁讲的都不重要，能不能理解完全看自己的悟性和造化。（2010-02-09）",[827,2140,2141],{},"网友：我在想为什么我一开始就接触巴菲特和彼得林奇的价值投资，而中途又转向各种技术分析，后又思考价值投资．也许价值投资太过博大，易学难精，技术分析让人觉得有章可循，但却更容易陷入贪婪与恐惧中追涨杀跌。作为一个学投资的硕士生，我发现中国的证券投资教育好像也从没有向价值投资考拢的趋势．呵呵，希望老师能推荐几本经典给我们",[827,2143,2144,2146],{},[833,2145,857],{}," 看巴菲特的东西就够了。（2010-03-30）",[827,2148,2149],{},"网友：请问段老师，你对美国的威廉·欧奈尔（William J. O’Neil）（国内有他的译著‘ How To Make Money In Stocks’ by William J. O'Neil（198 8），中译本名为《笑傲股市》。‘24 Essential Lessons For Investment Suc cess’ by William J.",[827,2151,2152],{},"O'Neil（1999），中译本名为《股票投资的24堂必修课》。‘The Successful Investor’ by William J. 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